Three Deaths

Charles Curning, Jack Klugman, Gerry AndersonA lot of people have died during the last week who I would like to write about. There was Jack Klugman, of course. People remember him most from The Odd Couple. As I recall, he replaced Walter Matthau in the Broadway play after just one performance. (Don’t quote me on that, but I think so.) But when I think of Klugman, I think of him playing Juror #5 in 12 Angry Men. It is a very delicate performance and it has really stayed with me over the years.

The same day, Charles Durning died. I was never that big a fan of his, probably because of the kinds of characters that he played. I certainly thought he was good, just not someone I would actively seek out. But then he played two roles that made me love him—both in Coen Brothers films. The first was Waring Hudsucker in The Hudsucker Proxy. And the second was Pappy O’Daniel in O Brother, Where Art Thou? Both those roles take something special to perform without making a total fool of yourself.

Two days later, Gerry Anderson died. You’ve probably never heard of him. I know him because he created a number of great children’s shows that used marionettes. But in later years he was quite involved in computer animation. He was also the creator of a show my friend Will used to really like, Space: 1999. Here is the opening of his show Thunderbirds. I suspect that it will look very familiar to you:

All three men added a great deal of joy to my life as well as those of countless others. I can’t think of a better way to spend a life. Thanks guys.

Spending Cuts Are Real

Josh BarroTwo days ago, I reported on Ezra Klein’s contention that Republicans think that they lose out in budget deals because the tax increases are real but the spending cuts are not. This is curious, because the evidence indicates exactly the opposite. For example, President Clinton and the other Democrats managed to do the painful work of raising taxes and cutting spending. This along with a great economy created budget surpluses. And as soon as the Republicans were back in power, they passed budget busting tax cuts.

But there’s more to this. Just think about it. What would be harder to get Congress to do: lower tax rates or increase spending on Medicare? Now, I know that the Republicans created a great big new Medicare benefit. But there are three things to remember. First, that was after two big tax cuts. Second, the program was not paid for. Third, the program was more a giveaway to the pharmaceutical companies than a benefit for the elderly.

Anyway, Josh Barro takes his fellow conservatives to task on this issue. He notes that Ryan Ellis of organized fucktards Americans for Tax Reform makes this case when discussing Bush Sr’s Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Ellis says:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected before the deal that 1991–1995 spending would total $7.07 trillion. In fact, total spending for this period was $7.09 trillion. In other words, in return for agreeing to tax hikes, Republicans got $22 billion in extra spending rather than the promised $274 billion in cuts.

Barro is so upset by this quote that he launches the e-bomb, “This is false!” For someone as studiedly cool as Barro, ending a sentence with an exclamation mark means something! (For me, it means nothing at all!)

He goes on to point out that Ellis is using an earlier projection from almost a year before the bill was passed. In the mean time, things had changed. In particular, the cost of the Savings &amp Loan bailout greatly increased. It turns out that we got almost exactly the spending cuts that were agreed to.

Barro is great at cutting through the conservative nonsense. And that’s why I so often write about him, even though we disagree about most policy. He ends the article by allowing for what he most likely believes (taxes are bad), but calling foul on the misrepresentation:

You don’t have to like the outcome of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990, particularly if your primary concern is keeping taxes low. But you can’t argue that its promised spending cuts didn’t materialize…

Update (6 Dec 2019)

One thing I didn’t mention here is that this also doesn’t take into account the fact that the population of the country continues to increase. So it makes sense that the size of the federal government should increase. (Just think about the IRS: it should require more people to process tax returns.) The argument made by Ryan Ellis is disingenuous.

As far as I know, Barro is now a Democrat. That shows just how ridiculous American politics is. Barro does fit well inside the Democratic coalition. But that shouldn’t be the case for the left’s political party. As I’ve noted before, the Republicans becoming unglued is the result of the Democratic Party’s constant push rightward from the mid-1970s onward. Barro’s a fine guy but he should not be in the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party needs to be further to the left than that if this country stands a chance in the future.

Ray Collins

Ray Collins with a toilet brushRay Collins of the two really great Mothers of Invention albums died on 24 December 2012 at Pomona Valley Hospital in Claremont, California. He left the band because of its increasing commitment to comedy over music. Zappa did have that problem. Unfortunately, the comedy wasn’t that good. And certainly the albums from We’re Only in it for the Money onward are weaker than the first two.

Collins had been living in his van off Social Security and songwriting royalties the last few years. The Associated Press reports that he was a “well-known character and conversationalist on the streets of Claremont.” He was 74.

Here is Go Cry on Somebody Else’s Shoulder, a song that Collins co-wrote with Zappa on the first album, Freak Out!

The other great album (the best of The Mothers, and Collins’ favorite) is Absolutely Free.

Wonk Blog Forgot Dean Baker

Dean BakerWonk Blog put together the favorite graphs from the last year of various policy wonks. It has some great graphs. Most I’ve seen, but some were quite new to me—especially about the environment, because frankly, I don’t keep up on it enough.

They did, however, not ask Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. And I think I know what his favorite graph would have been. Not only has he used it many times, but so have I. It compares how changing demographics (people retiring) will affect our standard of living versus how productivity growth will do so. Bottom line: productivity growth (even assuming an unrealistically low rate) swamps demographic changes:

Social Security Funding Effects

One of the most striking graphs is from Chrystia Freeland who offers The Great Gatsby Curve. It shows what I talk about often: a society cannot have great inequality and great opportunity. The more equal a society is, the easier it is for the poor to advance. As the United States gets more unequal, it turns more and more into a caste system where people are stuck wherever they start:

The Great Gatsby Curve

The following graph is from MIT economics professor Michael Greenstone. It deals with the true economic costs of various energy sources. Note that when they are all taken into account, coal becomes an extremely expensive fuel. But as I wrote earlier today, we have a system that cares only about short-term profits. All of these costs should be taken into account:

Energy Costs with Externalities

And there is this great chart from XKCD, offered by Princeton neuroscience professor Sam Wang:

Numbers Vs. Pundits

Check out the whole article. There are a lot of interesting graphs. There is also a really not interesting graph offered by fucktard Glenn Hubbard to show that we shouldn’t worry about taxing the rich. I would have thought that by now he would be too embarrassed to even leave the house. Wait! I forgot: he’s a conservative. They can’t feel things like embarrassment and shame.

Afterword

If you don’t know Glenn Hubbard, check out this two and a half minute clip from the great documentary Inside Job:

He was also Mitt Romney’s economic adviser.

Update (27 December 2012 3:15 pm)

Here is Thom Hartmann interviewing Glenn Hubbard. The man can’t even justify his own beliefs. He just talks rubbish.

Tsarist Russia Less Unequal Than America

Alexander KerenskyMatt Yglesias writes today, Inequality in Pre-Revolutionary Russia. He is reporting on the work of two economists: Steven Nafziger and Peter Lindert. They’ve been looking at income inequality in Russia under the Tsar at the turn of the 20th century. What they find is that Russia was about as unequal as similarly rich countries of that time. The more important finding: Tsarist Russia was less unequal than—Wait for it!—the United States today.

I’ve been thinking of the evolution of political/economic systems. We know that any economic system can lead to a totalitarian system if the government takes too much power. Libertarians are fond of pointing this out and rubbing the noses of liberals in it. But the assumption is always a capitalist system only has the government to worry about. Left to itself, a capitalism leads only to free markets and free minds. But as far as I can tell, a truly free market (and regardless of what they claim, no conservative—including libertarians—are really for free markets) leads to effectively a feudal system where 99% of the people are nothing more than serfs.

This takes me back to The One Percent and all the nonsense that Milton Friedman was spouting. It is interesting how libertarians always make practical arguments when presented with moral issues and moral arguments when presented with practical issues. Capitalism leads to an immoral level of inequality? Practically speaking, everyone is better off! (This is not even true, but it is a religious Truth for libertarians.) The poor are dying young because of lead in their water? It is immoral to take money away from anyone who earned it!

But you would think that information indicating that we have a worse income inequality problem than the one that led to the Russian Revolution might give such free marketeers pause. After all, democracy can push back against the unfettered market utopia that conservatives preach. But conservatives don’t pause. Regardless of what Ayn Rand said about enlightened self-interest, capitalism is now and always an extremely short-sighted system. The power elites don’t care any more about income inequality than they do about global warming. After all, the Russian Revolution was way before their time. And they don’t think any longer than one financial quarter ahead.

Samsung Out Doing Apple

Apple SucksThe video below is amazing. It is also not true. It is a “render,” which I take to mean it is speculation or “pretend.” Clearly, it has something to do with a brick render or surface. What it shows is a Samsung Galaxy S4 that is about 1/8 inch thick with a docking station that provides a laser keyboard. I’m sure that we will soon get just that—on all phones. Of course, being the Luddite that I am, I will have to wait about ten years after that. But even I find the idea exciting.

But what is most interesting is how Samsung is kicking Apple’s butt. And this no doubt is why Apple, like a good rentier, is running around trying to stop competition through the courts with their long used strategy of look-and-feel lawsuits. You know, the kind of lawsuits that are only upheld in the United States where money and power always trump justice. Still, I am enough of an optimist to think that in the end truth will out. If Apple wants to succeed into the future, they need to offer something more than a lesser Galaxy in white.

And frankly, that’s about all they currently offer.

The Apple lifestyle will only save them for long.

A Tale of Two Indexes

Fiscal CliffAre you worried about the Fiscal Cliff? I am! I’m worried that I will have to read another hysterical article about how we are going to go into recession if we don’t reach a deal this week. And I’ll tell you this: I won’t even go into a Starbucks until this is over. I don’t want to see “come together” written on coffee cups. In fact, I’ve decided to boycot Starbucks for the rest of my life. They have a terrible tea selection anyway. But more to the point, the whole “come together” campaign is just a way to push Democrats to yield when they have the upper hand. After all, the Starbucks CEO is part of Fix the Debt.

It appears, as usual, that the only ones who are really worried about the Fiscal Cliff are the elites. Dean Baker reports on the most recent Conference Board Index of consumer confidence. They report two indexes. One is a very reliable measure: current conditions index. This measures how much stuff (seasonally adjusted and all that) people are actually buying. This is way up: 62.8 this month, up from 57.4 last month.

And then there is a kind of black magic measure: future expectations index. It is way down: 66.5 this month, down from 80.9 last month. But this is just an indication that most of the people in the media are screaming about the Fiscal Cliff. Armageddon! Be afraid! Be very afraid!

So when you see news stories that say that consumer confidence is down, you will know it is wrong. The base index is more or less the average of these two numbers. What people are hearing is that the future looks bleak. What people are doing indicates what they think the future is bright. And it is, as long as the politicians and other powerful people don’t screw it up.

Update (27 December 2012 11:16)

Suzy Khimm over at Wonk Blog quotes Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz’s open letter to his employees:

As many of you know, our elected officials in Washington D.C. have been unable to come together and compromise to solve the tremendously important, time-sensitive issue to fix the national debt. You can learn more about this impending crisis at www.fixthedebt.org.

This indicates that Schultz doesn’t even understand what the Fiscal Cliff is. That’s the bizarre thing about all this hysteria: it is mostly by people who are normally hysterical about the budget deficit. This is exactly the opposite. If they really cared about the deficit, they would welcome the Fiscal Cliff. I’ve argued before that what they really care about is killing entitlement programs. That’s why the first step in the Simpson-Bowles proposal was a big tax cut. But it also seems that these people just want to be upset about something. Too much debt? Horror! Too little debt? Horror! Whatever? Horror!

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea

Voyage to the Bottom of the SeaLast night I watched Irwin Allen’s Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. Generally, it is your usual kind of 1960s style science fiction romp. It has dorky over-lit sets, silly science, and way too much plucky American can-do attitude. But there are fundamental problems with the story that it tells.

The biggest problem is its full-throttled support of American Exceptionalism. Admiral Harriman Nelson goes to the United Nation to discuss what to do about the Van Allen belts having caught on fire. (This, by the way, makes no sense.) He tells them about a plan to fire a nuclear missile at the belts, thus extinguishing the fire. A scientist from Vienna has calculated that the fire will burn itself out. The other scientists accept his calculations and dismiss Nelson’s idea as too dangerous. Nelson tells them that he will only listen to the President of the United States.

This is pretty bad, but it is entirely American. “The only reason I came to the UN was to look good. Now rubber stamp my idea and let me go do what I’m going to do anyway!” And Nelson does. He rushes back to his sub and takes off, very likely drowning some cops who were trying to stop him. When it comes time to shoot the nuke, he cannot contact the president and so just goes ahead without the okay. (Note: he didn’t try to contact the president right away when he left New York.) But what’s the big deal with exploding a nuclear bomb in the magnetosphere? What could possibly go wrong?

Generally, a character like Nelson is a villain or an object of pity. He shows all the signs of being crazy, and that is clearly where the plot indicates it is going. I figured that eventually Nelson would determine that the scientists at the UN were correct—that the fire would burn itself out—and he would abort. He seemed a little crazy, but I figured he was a positive enough character for the film to ease him back from the abyss. That is not the way it went.

Instead, there was a saboteur on board. And, of course, it turned out to be the female scientist (Joan Fontaine who was surprisingly good and who is still alive at 95). She was trying to stop Nelson because (1) she agreed with the scientist from Vienna and (2) Nelson did show all the signs of being crazy. But he wasn’t! Instead, he was just a plucky American who knew what was best for the world. In the end he shoots his wad and saves the day.

And the la-hand of the Freeeeee!
And the hoooome, of thhhhhe, braaaave!

I am as fond of the romantic hero archetype as anyone. But if Achilles was wrong, Hector would kill him and the Trojans would have won the war. In this case, if Nelson is wrong, everyone dies. But note: there is no indication that the fire would not have burned itself out. So even in the context of the film, Nelson is not necessarily right. And the science is such that roughly half of the radiation would have come back down to earth. So unless Nelson was right that the fire would not burn itself out, his solution was indeed bad even though it succeeded in its primary purpose.

The film is a good example of American hubris. In certain ways it is the Zero Dark Thirty of its day. And just like it, it doesn’t shape public opinion; it is shaped by public opinion. Because the base idea in both films is what Americans always think: we are always right and thus the means are always justified.