Theater of the Austere

Paul KrugmanWe could use a bit of levity, could we not? Paul Krugman posted a short play that apparently one of the commenters posted somewhere at The Irish Economy. If you know anything at all about what has been going on in Europe or even just a little about who Paul Krugman is, you will find this quite amusing.

Basically, the idea here is that the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi (Drachet), wants to do things to “help” the patient (e.g. Portugal) that are based on long-discredited economic theories. Paul Krugman (deKrugman) is pointing out the absurdity of his approach. Much hilarity ensues.

All I’ve done is fix a little formatting and some of the typos. Enjoy:

Scene: A spacious drawing room in Frankfurt. A patient is strapped to a table. M Drachet in attendance, plus admirers.

M Drachet: Our diagnosis for this fellow is an excess of partying, too much of the punch-bowl, a surfeit of humours, grass corpulence and a palpable debt overhang. Our remedy? Leeches!

Enter Mr deKrugman, a plain talking Yankee.

Mr deKrugman: Hold your hand, sir! The patient is weak. Leeches will only distress his condition further.

M Drachet: Oh that annoying fellow. Even your fellow Americans agree that leeches are the cure.

Mr deKrugman: Not any more they don’t. They’ve changed their minds.

M Drachet: Really? Never mind—bring on the leeches.

Mr deKrugman: Rather than leeches, this fellow needs an infusion of fresh blood to recover.

M Drachet: Are you volunteering?

Mr deKrugman: You, sir, can create all the blood you wish and you know it.

M Drachet: Balderdash.

A fop whispers in M Drachet’s ear.

M Drachet: Well that’s news. But you forget, our medical charter expressly forbids it. And you miss the nicer point, if we were to do so, this fellow would learn nothing from his foolishness and return to his profligate ways.

Mr deKrugman: Are you trying to cure the fellow, or teach him a lesson?

M Drachet: A soupcon of A and a morsel of B. Now, the leeches.

The leeches are applied, and the patient becomes noticeably paler.

Mr deKrugman: Told you.

M Drachet: You really are the most arrogant fellow.

Mr deKrugman: Says the man with the leeches.

M Drachet: But this is part of the cure! You see he is being purged, in being purged he will ultimately return stronger.

Mr deKrugman: Or dead like that poor Greek fellow.

M Drachet: And anyway, you quite misunderstand. It is not the leeches that make him pale, but, er, that, that and la bas!

Mr deKrugman: You’re pointing at a bunch of random things.

M Drachet: Not at all, I’m pointing at fetid air! Contagion I tell you. Stop looking at the leeches.

Mr deKrugman: Look, are the leeches to teach a painful lesson or to help the patient get better?

M Drachet: Can they be both?

Mr deKrugman: No.

M Drachet: To be honest monsieur, we do it because we’ve always done it. But our meticulous research shows that if the patients have, er, died in the past—it wasn’t the leeches fault! It was, um, something else!

Mr deKrugman: I strongly recommend an infusion of fresh blood.

M Drachet: But if we tried something new and it proved better, why our reputation for competence would be in tatters—you laugh sir?

Mr deKrugman: No sir, I weep. I weep.

They continue to bicker as the bloated leeches suck happily at the patient.

That’s actually quite accurate. The writer is incorrect, however: America has not changed its mind. Half or more of the political elite still think that austerity is the way to go. I weep.

Crazy Everywhere, Well Armed Here

Connecticut ShootingEveryone wants to know why it is we have so many mass shootings—one every five days on average. Most of all, I want to know. Brad Plumer wrote what turned out to be a disappointing story over at Wonk Blog, Why Are Mass Shootings Becoming More Common? It was disappointing, because it turns out that we don’t know.

One of the more compelling theories is that mass shootings are contagious. I’m serious. Plumer doesn’t say, but I think I know how it works. A mentally unstable person sees the news coverage of a mass shooting. He thinks, “Maybe that’s what I need! Maybe that will fix me!” I know that line may sound cavalier, but I don’t mean it that way at all. I know what it’s like to feel that you have no control on your emotions, and the desperation that goes along with it. Luckily, my mental dysfunctions do not go along with a confused sense of reality. But I can see how these people would follow others who have gone before.

It is much too convenient to hang all of this carnage on the media, however. For one thing, according to Richard Florida’s work, there really is no correlation (within the United States) between gun deaths and mental illness. But he did find a correlation between gun deaths and loose gun regulation. To be clear: the more restrictive the gun laws, the lower the rate of gun deaths. So gun availability—And this surprises no one, right?—is a critical issue.

Brad Plumer provided an amazing comparison. Today, another mentally ill man attacked a group of children. Twenty-two of them were injured—some of them badly. But none were killed. This is because it happened in China and the man only had a knife.

People are crazy all over the world. We need to do something about that: for them as well as us. But the biggest social problem with the mentally ill here in America is that they are too well armed.

The Cocoanuts

The CocoanutsBecause I have been on a Marx Brothers jag and I wanted to forget about the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, I watched The Cocoanuts. It is the first Marx Brothers film, and it is a bit weird. It has a few songs by Irving Berlin, remarkable dance numbers, and some of the funniest comedy bits I’ve ever seen. The story—I know this will shock you!—is about a rich girl who wants to marry a poor boy with big dreams. “Wait!” you say. “Isn’t that the plot of Animal Crackers?” Well… “And A Night at the Opera?” Well… “And…” Yes, yes, yes! But this time it takes place in Florida at Hotel de Cocoanut!

Groucho owns the hotel that is staffed almost exclusively by beautiful young women who break into dance at just about any opportunity, which turns out to be in between just about every comedy bit. In fact, even though The Cocoanuts was originally a Broadway play, it seems more like vaudeville: comedy, song, dance, comedy, song, dance. And it works very well as such. If you are looking for any kind of narrative (And why would you?!) it is disappointing. There is a whole (Sub?) plot about Groucho selling property, but it seems to be nothing more than an excuse for what is admittedly a hilarious scene where Groucho tries to game an auction with Chico, who does not exactly get the concept.

Here is a very funny scene leading up to it where Groucho coaches Chico. Later, Groucho says “viaduct” but Chico thinks it is, “Why a duck?” Which is a damned good question!

The bad news is that the DVD I have is a Universal release, but it is terrible. The print quality from cut to cut is enormous. It is never particularly good, usually bad (high contrast), and sometimes almost unwatchable. The clip above is about as good as the quality gets, although the sound is better on the DVD. And like all the Marx Brothers DVDs I’ve seen, it comes with no extras at all. Nonetheless, despite all the technical problems, how can you not love this film?

Rich Drug Criminals Not Prosecuted

HSBCRecently, the government found out about this big drug laundering enterprise. They’d laundered $9 billion over the last decade. So the feds got their paramilitary unit together, busted down the doors, and arrested everyone. Now they are all rotting in jail—for years. In fact, some of them will never get out.

I’m kidding, of course.

Did you see the figure: $9 billion? If they had laundered $9,000, then that probably would have happened. Even if it had been $9 million, it might have happened. But $9 billion? That’s real money! And therefore, that’s real power. And therefore: nothing.

The drug laundering company was British banking giant HSBC. And they weren’t just laundering for drug cartels; they were also laundering for terrorists. We know all of this because the Justice Department is very pleased with how they handled this case. Assistant Attorney General Lanny Breuer proudly announced that HSBC is going to pay a record (not adjusted for inflation) $1.92 billion dollars. For the record, this is equivalent to 5 weeks of profits for the firm. In other words: big fucking deal.

But there’s more. Lest you think that the HSBC executives are getting off scott free: no, no, no! For the next five years, these executives are going to have part of their bonuses held back. Not forfeited, mind you: deferred. It is not clear whether they will be paid interest on this money or not. My guess is that they will get the interest. Anything else would be unjust!

Matt Taibbi has a great article about all of this, Outrageous HSBC Settlement Proves the Drug War is a Joke. In it, he compares the treatment of rich drug law breakers (HSBC executives) to poor drug law breakers (drug users). For example, in 2010, the government made almost as much from forfeiture (mostly drug or alleged drug cases) than they got in this HSBC settlement.

Taibbi is clearly angry as we all should be:

So you might ask, what’s the appropriate financial penalty for a bank in HSBC’s position? Exactly how much money should one extract from a firm that has been shamelessly profiting from business with criminals for years and years? Remember, we’re talking about a company that has admitted to a smorgasbord of serious banking crimes. If you’re the prosecutor, you’ve got this bank by the balls. So how much money should you take?

How about all of it? How about every last dollar the bank has made since it started its illegal activity? How about you dive into every bank account of every single executive involved in this mess and take every last bonus dollar they’ve ever earned? Then take their houses, their cars, the paintings they bought at Sotheby’s auctions, the clothes in their closets, the loose change in the jars on their kitchen counters, every last freaking thing. Take it all and don’t think twice. And then throw them in jail.

Sound harsh? It does, doesn’t it? The only problem is, that’s exactly what the government does just about every day to ordinary people involved in ordinary drug cases.

In case you haven’t been paying attention these last, I don’t know, 225 years of the United States of America, we don’t have “equal justice for all.” We have something akin to a two tier “justice” system: one for the wealthy were almost no amount of misbehavior is punished; and one for the poor where little or nothing is required for the harshest imaginable punishment.

And the la-hand of the Freeeeee!
And the hoooome, of thhhhhe, braaaave!

Afterword

Here is a bit from an interview of Matt Taibbi on Eliot Spitzer’s Viewpoint:

Cenk Uygur on The Young Turks is about as angry as I’ve ever seen him. Too big to jail:

Update (16 December 2012 11:16)

I fixed the amount of the settlement from $1.3 to $1.92 billion. I also fixed how this relates to forfeiture amounts.

It Wasn’t Sandy Hook’s Security System

Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting aftermathI just found out about the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. I saw a bunch of chatter about gun control on Twitter. It actually made me feel good, because I thought that it was about the Portland shooting. I’ve been bothered by the lack of coverage of that shooting, because I figure it is due to the fact that “only” two people were murdered. Sure, you can say I’m clueless, but the truth is that I’m not very good at this quick change, short attention span culture we have. I’m not over that shooting yet.

The best reporting that I’ve found on the shooting is from the Wall Street Journal, Dozens Killed in Connecticut School Shooting. It seems that we now know that at least 27 people were killed, 18 of them were children. Details are few in this story, but the WSJ article was really pushing one part of the story. There is a locked double door entry system at this school. This is the result of past tragedies like Columbine. No one knows how the shooter got through, but the WSJ sure is interested.

My perspective about this is: who the fuck cares?! Clearly he did get through. It seems that he was the son of one of the teachers there. (They are both reportedly dead now.) That might explain it. Regardless, something explains it. But that is not going to explain why 27 people were murdered. This is a typically American approach to a problem: look everywhere but not at what is right in front of you.

I don’t know why this horrible event happened at Sandy Hook. But I feel fairly sure that a big part of it comes down to this:

Crazy Man + Guns = 27 People Murdered

So I’m thinking that maybe we need to start talking about mental health and gun laws in this country. Because no amount of investigation of the school’s security system is going to improve the situation in the future. If you have well-armed crazy people walking around, people are going to die unnecessarily.

Update (14 December 2012 5:20 pm)

Most recent data: 26 murdered, 20 of which were children.

John Boehner’s Position on the Gaming License

John BoehnerThis is how I imagine the budget negotiation going. Boehner looks Obama in the eye and says, “My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, because… I don’t know what that is!” The one thing that we see coming from every source is that despite the negotiations, the Republicans refuse to say what they want to cut. Greg Sargent at The Plum Line writes, The Morning Plum: Dems Hold the Middle Ground. GOP Is on Fringe. (Kind of annoying: who’s on the left fringe?) He quotes a source who says, “To date [the Republicans] have been unwilling or able to identify a list of specific cuts or changes they would like or a single loophole they are willing to close.”

Sargent goes on to note three aspects of the negotiations that show that this is not a situation where both sides are equally at fault.[1] First, the Republicans are still saying they will never raise the top income tax bracket. Second, the Democrats are pushing a mixed set of policies that include things that they themselves don’t like. Third, as the negotiations go on, the Republicans are demanding ever deeper cuts, even as they refuse to say what to cut. So yes, boys and girls: the Great Pumpkin and reasonableness from Republicans are both myths.

Paul Krugman, following Sargent, notes that there is one thing that the Republicans have been clear about cutting, but even it is a phantom:

Even the one real budget cut they’ve been willing to endorse specifically, savage cuts to Medicaid, involved block-granting and turning it over to states, so that they don’t have to specify who, exactly, will be denied medical care. And with Obama dead set against that kind of cut, they have nothing.

But maybe I was wrong at the start of this article when I characterized Boehner as being ignorant of the budget. It is more likely that he is very much aware of where the budget stands. And thus, he knows two thing. First, there isn’t that much to cut. Second, the things he and his Republican allies want to cut are politically toxic. In that case, it would be more correct to characterize Boehner’s position this way, “You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, because… The people like gaming licenses. But if you would be willing to take the heat for policies that I want, well then, my offer will be this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license.”


[1] I have a question: is it ever the case where both sides are equally wrong? Over time, you could certainly make that case. You could say that over the last 40 years, the Palestinians and Israelis have been about equally wrong. (I’m not saying that, because I really don’t know; but it seems like a reasonable assertion that people could argue about.) But to say in any given situation that the two sides are equally wrong is just madness. It also doesn’t punish whoever happens to be wrong and it encourages reasonable people to act badly.

Good Dick, Bad Dick

Steven CrowderI’ve been giving a lot of thought to the question of just how tolerant I am of people being dicks. I know that to some extent, I admire dicks. Bill Maher is a dick, and I generally like him. Of course, he’s funny, so there’s that. But I’m thinking more of the people from Americans for Prosperity who put up a tent in the middle of the right-to-work protests in Michigan. The only reason they did it was to be dicks and hopefully get the protesters to misbehave.

I try to turn it around. Would I have thought it clever if some guy had handed out copies of the Socialist Worker at Tea Party rallies? Yeah, I probably would have gotten a kick out of that. And if that guy had gotten in a fight? Well, it would depend. If some Tea Party person had just come up and slugged him, I would be angry. But if a confrontation happened where pushing led to punching, well, that happens. And I think I would have realized that “my guy” was being kind of a dick.

Yesterday, I saw a clip of Steven Crowder on Fox News. He was the guy who got punched by one of the protesters. Even if we accept Crowder’s claims (and we shouldn’t—see below), there is a very big difference between this situation and the Socialist Worker guy at the Tea Party. The people at the Tea Party rally were mostly upper income people: not necessarily rich, but secure. Crowder and his gang are being dicks around people who will be hit hard by this legislation. So Crowder is more like a kid loudly rooting for the concentration camp director Amon Goeth at a screening of Schindler’s List: yes, yes, free speech, but if the kid ends up bruised, no one is going to shed any tears.

Now it turns out that Steven Crowder selectively edited his video to make it look like the punch he got was unprovoked. The unedited footage shows that the guy who punched him was on the ground right before. He was there due to an altercation. Just the same, there is no indication that Crowder had anything to do with it. But this is what happens when you get into the middle of a fight. This is why most people do not get into the middle of a fight.

So it seems that Crowder is following in the footsteps of James O’Keefe, with the added feature of being a big whiner. (Actually, when it comes to it, I’ll bet that O’Keefe will whine like the rest of them.) Republicans are big on claiming that foreign civilians deserve to be bombed, minorities deserve to live in poverty, and women deserve to be raped—because they live, work, or walk in the wrong places. But when a conservative white man gets bruised after he jumps into the middle of a fight he helped to instigate? That’s an outrage!

The good aspect of this is that Steven Crowder will likely continue to have to hang with people like Gretchen Carlson, Steve Doocy, and the black-haired guy who is not Steve Doocy.

Update (14 December 2012 11:13 am)

The Young Turks covered the story. Watch it, it gives more details:

Don’t Balance That Budget!

Balanced BudgetRobert Reich was the first person I heard make the argument for not balancing the federal budget. The argument is simple. Imagine that you have a business partner. You work very hard to save the company money and collect payments from customers. But every time you take a couple days off, your business partner spends all the company money on booze and hookers. That’s what it’s like to be a Democratic president: you cut the deficit or even eliminate it. And then a Republican comes in and spends all the savings—And more!—on foreign wars and tax cuts for the rich.

It is even worse than this. To a large extent, Democrats don’t even get credit for being fiscally responsible. Most Republicans to this day don’t know that Obama has slashed the budget deficit the last three years. In fact, I’ve had conversations with Republicans who didn’t know that Clinton had balanced the budget. The only Republican to cut the federal deficit in the last 30 years was Bush Sr, and only by a little. Yet the perspective, even among some Democrats, is that the Republican Party are the fiscally responsible one.

Yesterday, Matt Yglesias wrote, Cutting Spending To Obtain Tax Hikes Is Nuts. He explains this whole dynamic in a lot more depth than I’ve ever seen:

When Republicans run the show, they enact gigantic deficit-financed tax cuts with the scale of tax cuts tempered to an extent by free-floating fear of public sticker shock and by the business community’s concerns about the extent of sustainable deficits. When Democrats run the show, they enact legislation on a pay-as-you-go basis where new programs have to be offset by tax hikes or spending cuts. When government is divided, the parties fight and bargain. These are laws of politics, not of economics, but they’re no less binding. But the impact is that during the “fight and bargain” phase of the game, the priority for sensible people should be to preserve valuable spending not to maximize tax revenue.

He notes that if Obama gives Medicare cuts in exchange for tax hikes, it hurts the Democratic program in the long run. Let’s suppose that Hillary Clinton is the next president. If she wants to start a program (Yglesias uses universal preschool as an example), she will have to pay for it, because that’s how Democrats govern. But where will she get the money? If Obama had not traded Medicare cuts for tax increases, she would have two options: raise taxes or shift money from Medicare to universal preschool.

The point of all this is that the budget isn’t some theoretical game. It is about policy choices: what you value. Obama may put the budget in a better state, but in doing so, he only makes good governance harder in the future. People—especially those like our president who suffer from “centrist syndrone”—generally think that anything that both sides hate must be good policy. Yglesias shows this is not true.

There is another aspect of this that Yglesias doesn’t talk about. But I think it is even more important. It is easy to cut taxes. It is hard to enact important government programs—especially now. Does anyone think we could ever get Medicare or Social Security passed now? I don’t. But once the economy starts running on all cylinders, there will be calls for tax cuts. Even before the economy is good, any eliminated deductions will be quietly put back in. And regardless, as soon as the Republicans are back in the White House, there will be tax cuts.

Obama spent most of his first term learning that bipartisanship was a crock. I fully suspect he will use his entire presidency to learn that budget balancing too is a crock. Alas.