Media Allow Presidential Misconduct

The Clemency of Alexander the Great - PellegriniWe all like President Obama, because he is, after all, as good a president as we could get. But he isn’t as good a president as we deserve. And I say that knowing full well that as a society, we don’t deserve very much. By industrial nation norms, we are distinctly on the bad side of average. But you know something: better politicians would make us better. And you know what stops us from having better politicians? Bad journalism: the kind of journalism that defines what the Democrats and Republicans think as the Overton Window—regardless of how rightward both parties drift; the kind of journalism that delivers no penalty for the worst lies and demagoguery; the kind of journalism that sees its product as commodity instead of truth.

This isn’t to say there isn’t a lot of good journalism. It just means that it is mostly done in the shadows. ProPublica published a great article today by Dafna Linzer, Obama Has Granted Clemency More Rarely Than Any Modern President. This is the kind of thing that drives me crazy! Liberals will defend the President, “He can’t do anything else: he’s black!” Or, “He used to smoke pot!” Or “He admitted to using cocaine!” My response: those facts just make him an even bigger asshole.

Cannabis is a Schedule 1 narcotic. If he had been arrested by federal agents, he would have spent years in jail. There would have been no Harvard Law School. There would have been no presidency of the Law Review. And there such as shit would have been no President of the United States of America! He must know this. You would think it would make him a little more understanding. A little more empathic. A little less of a total dick.

How big a dick is he? In the last roughly 4 years, President Obama has pardoned 22 people. He has declined 1,019 other cases. That’s 1 out 50. How does it compare to other presidents? Ronald Reason: 1-3; Bush Sr: 1-16; Clinton: 1-8; Bush Jr: 1-33. Note: the cocaine sniffers are by far the worst.

But hey, maybe those asking for pardons are just worse than they used to be: terrorists and such. Not so much. Dafna Linzer:

A former brothel manager who helped the FBI bust a national prostitution ring. A retired sheriff who inadvertently helped a money launderer buy land. A young woman who mailed ecstasy tablets for a drug-dealing boyfriend, then worked with investigators to bring him down.

All of them and hundreds more were denied pardons by President Obama, who has granted clemency at a lower rate than any modern president, a ProPublica review of pardons data shows.

I’m not suggesting that Romney would be better. But my feeling is that any president would be a hell of a lot better if the media were more interested in stories like this.

Comments on Ohio Romney Rally

Romney - No We Can't - NopeChase Whiteside of New Left Media is an amazing young documentary filmmaker. I came upon the video below over at Hullabaloo: Ohio Romney Rally—Interviews with Supporters. It is just amazing. I know there are ignorant fools of all political stripes. But Whiteside is hardly asking “gotcha” questions. I can forgive the guy who thinks that Buddhists are trying to push their religion on us all. And I can forgive the people that don’t seem to have a clue what Mitt Romney’s policies are. (This is most of them.) But the anger and hatred that comes through with some of them is palpable.

One woman really struck me. She leveled a criticism of Obama that we are all very familiar with: Obama said he would unite the country but instead he has divided it. Even without knowing all the facts, this is the kind of claim—regardless of which side it comes from—that embarrasses me. It is too pat. There is no way that this is the whole story, even if the criticism is basically valid. Of course, the criticism is not valid.

It doesn’t take much digging to find that the claim is at best unfair. Let’s just look at the most obvious example: healthcare reform. Obama did not want an individual mandate. That was a Republican idea—you know, the whole libertarian canard of “rights and responsibilities.” But the President compromised and gave the Republicans their individual mandate. Then the President wanted a public option that people could buy instead of private insurance. (Note: there is no reason to be against the public option except that you want to protect the private insurance industry.) Again the President compromised. The Republicans had gotten the bill they had for years said they wanted. The result: not one Republican in the House or Senate voted for the ACA. Not one!

After that, how can anyone possibly blame President Obama for not being a uniter? He clearly made a major good faith effort to work with Republicans. The only criticism you can make against him is that he was naive. He should have known that the Republicans would do everything possible to block him and he should have gone in and tried to coerce the Republicans. I agree with that take on the President. But that is not what people mean when they claim that he should have united Washington.

What these people seem to believe—in part because this is one of Romney’s main talking points—is that Obama came into office with all of these socialist ideas that he tried to cram down the throats of the Republicans. This is manifestly not true. I cannot see such thinking as anything but willful ignorance. The people want to believe it because it gives them an excuse for supporting Mitt Romney. And as you can see in Chase Whiteside’s video: they don’t have any actual reasons for supporting him.

Friday Night Nate Silver Update

Tonight, Nate Silver’s model has again increased President Obama’s chances to winning the electoral college to 81.4%. He predicts that he will also win the popular vote 50.5% to 48.4%. Perhaps most striking, he predicts that Obama has roughly a 38% chance of winning 332 electoral votes or more. A win of 332 electoral votes would mean that Obama won Florida, which is looking more and more likely, but hardly likely in an absolute sense. A win 347 electoral votes would mean that Obama almost won North Carolina. This is far less likely.

Here is The Young Turks on conservative denial about Nate Silver and his model:

Romney Could Take New York

Donald TrumpAs everyone knows, this election will all come down to the independent voter. So I decided to do a poll of the most independent voters in New York. Well, the most independent voter: Donald Trump. We know he’s independent because sometimes he’s a Republican, sometimes a third party candidate, and even a Democrat on occasion.

In this election, Trump is breaking hard for Mitt Romney. Extrapolating from this poll, I predict New York will go for Romney. As with the predictions of Unskewed Polls, this result will likely surprise a lot of people. But should it, really? You know the old saying: as goes Trump, so goes America. President Obama will rue the day he passed up Trump’s $5 million offer; that might have turned the independent vote to Obama. Ah, lost opportunities!

People will counter this result by claiming that there aren’t nearly enough undecided voters in New York to change the election. I have two responses to this. First, I’m talking about independent voters, not undecided voters. New Yorkers are very independent, especially the 61% of them who say they will vote for President Obama. My second response is, “La, la, la. I can’t hear you!”

Others will claim that my sample size is too small. This is ridiculous. Donald Trump is a very big sample size. Also: “La, la, la. I can’t hear you!”

So when Tuesday night comes and Fox News announces that Romney has won New York: I told you so. And you will owe me (and to a lesser extent, Dean Chambers) a big apology.

Conservative Affirmative Action

George WillMustang Bobby over at Bark Bark Woof Woof has a fun snarky article about George Will’s attempt to speak for the beau monde in all his bow tied crustiness—you know that Barack Obama is just a working class kid?! Of course, George Will is only part of the privileged class because of all the money he’s made as an apologist for it. He comes from a middle class family in Illinois.

Although David Brooks does not put on quite the airs of George Will, this is only because he is one more generation removed from the inventor of snob conservatism: William F. Buckley. Dean Baker tells us that David Brooks Is Upset that President Obama Hasn’t Inflicted More Pain on the Middle Class. Brooks calls for the President to “shift government resources from the affluent elderly to struggling young families and future growth.” But Baker notes:

Of course Brooks doesn’t really mean “affluent” elderly. We know that Brooks and his political allies question whether even people earning above $250,000 a year are affluent when it comes to tax cuts… Brooks wants to see Obama cut benefits for retired nurses, school teachers, truck drivers and other middle class workers.

Both Brooks and Will are a credit to their kind—but I’m not talking about blue blood.

The truth is that they are both excellent examples of conservative affirmative action. This is where the intelligence, knowledge, and cleverness requirements of pundits are lowered (or removed) so that shows can have a “conservative voice.” Think: S. E. Cupp on any MSNBC show.

There is also liberal anti-affirmative action. This is where Fox News finds the most useless and anemic liberal to offer fake balance. These “liberals” are normally played by moderates, but also very often conservatives. Think: Juan Williams on any Fox News program.

Let’s all be grateful for conservative affirmative action! If it weren’t for these programs, George Will might be on the street offering baseball analogies for spare change. And that’d just be sad—bow tie or no.

Dick Lane is All You Need

The following video is a collection of outtakes from You Bet Your Life with Groucho Marx. There is one bit where a woman is telling Groucho that he should come to their Almond festival or some such. She mentions that Dick Lane will be there. Groucho replies, “Well, if you have Dick Lane, I don’t think you need me.” You don’t have to know who Dick Lane is to get the joke—the fact that you’ve likely never heard of him is enough. I’ll bet Groucho didn’t know who he was either. But for the record, Dick Lane was a local Los Angeles TV announcer, most notable for his work for wrestling and roller derby.

Effective Bad Policy

XXXWe haven’t heard much from Paul Krugman recently. According to his sporadic blogging, he and his wife (Robin Wells) have been trapped in their house by a downed power line. He has apparently been blogging from his phone. Tonight came his first column since Hurricane Sandy hit. And it shows that he’s been in a bit of a media blackout because he’s writing about last Saturday’s Des Moines Register endorsement of Mitt Romney.

I’ve already written about the huge economics mistakes in the editorial. Krugman doesn’t touch this issue—probably because Dean Baker has already given it the business. Instead, he attacks the endorsement as an example of Romney supporters giving power to The Blackmail Caucus.

Pretty much all of the Romney endorsements that I’ve read have been the same: elect Romney because the Republicans in Congress will behave if a Republican is in the White House. There is, of course, much to say for that view. As I’ve noted before: if McCain had been President these last 4 years, we would likely have more liberal healthcare reform and some kind of cap and trade legislation.

Krugman argues that it is wrong to vote for this reason because it is the same as negotiating with terrorists:

Would a Democratic Senate offer equally extreme opposition to a President Romney? No, it wouldn’t. So, yes, there is a case that “partisan gridlock” would be less damaging if Mr. Romney won.

But are we ready to become a country in which “Nice country you got here. Shame if something were to happen to it” becomes a winning political argument? I hope not. By all means, vote for Mr. Romney if you think he offers the better policies. But arguing for Mr. Romney on the grounds that he could get things done veers dangerously close to accepting protection-racket politics, which have no place in American life.

I think there is an even better reason not to vote for Romney: he isn’t McCain of 2008. The legislation that Romney would get through Congress would be terrible. We not only wouldn’t get a better healthcare law, we would get a worse one: he will likely kill or gut Obamacare. We not only wouldn’t get global warming legislation, Romney would greatly increase fossil fuel drilling and likely lower fuel efficiency standards. I could go on. But the bottom line is that being more effective is a bad thing when your policies are as pernicious as Romney’s.

Media for Big Government Suddenly

Matt TaibbiMatt Taibbi is angry—at a lot of different people, but mostly the media. He’s been watching how they have reacted to the storm. Before, the main thing was that Big Government was baaad. Small government was the way to go. I’ve written about this: journalists are almost all in the upper or upper-middle classes. As a result, when it comes to economic issues, they are conservative. But more to the point: they are selfish. If it affects them, it matters; if it doesn’t, not so much.

That has been brilliantly on display this week. I’m not suggesting that Sandy isn’t a big deal (although few in the media were that interested in all the Haitians who died before it hit the east coast). But they are clearly a lot more interested because it has affected New York and Washington. Taibbi notes that Hurricane Sandy was all that was necessary to turn the mainstream media into Big Government lovers. And thus Obama lovers.

Except, of course, that of the two candidates, Obama has a far better claim to being the Small Government guy. He’s the guy who has slashed the deficit, year after year. And Romney is Joe Isuzu giving away $5 trillion in new tax cuts and $2 trillion in new military spending. But just look at the record: Democrats are the fiscal conservatives.

Taibbi sees it a little differently. He thinks the federal budget will go way up regardless of who is elected President. Under normal circumstances, I would agree with him. (But don’t misunderstand me: in general, federal spending going up is a good thing.) But with the Republican House, I think we will see more of the obstructionism that has defined the last four years.

But Taibbi knows who the true villains are in all of this: the rich Randians who depend upon government largess that the poor could only dream of:

But everyone lives off the government teat to some degree—even (one might even say especially) the very rich who have been the core supporters of both the Bush presidency and Romney’s campaign. Many are industrial leaders who would revolt tomorrow if their giant free R&D program known as the federal military budget were to be scaled back even a few percentage points. Mitt’s buddies on Wall Street would cry without their bailouts and dozens of lucrative little-known subsidies (like the preposterous ability of certain banks to act as middlemen in transactions when the government lends money to itself).

And if it’s not outright bailouts or guarantees keeping the rich rich, it’s selective regulation and carefully-carved-out protections from competition—like the bans on drug re-importation or pharmaceutical price negotiation for Medicare that are keeping the drug companies far richer than they would be, in the pure free-market paradise their CEOs probably espouse at dinner parties.

The evolution of this whole antigovernment movement has been fascinating to watch. People who grew up in public schools, run straight to the embassy the instant they get a runny nose overseas, stuff burgers down their throats without worrying about E. Coli and sleep happily in planes they know have been inspected by the FAA (I regularly risked my life in Aeroflot liners for a decade and know the difference), can with straight faces make the argument that having to pay any taxes at all is tyranny. It’s almost as if people feel the need to announce that they don’t need any help with anything, ever—not even keeping bridges safe or drinking water clean.

That’s right. But a big part of the problem is that the government goes out of its way to make welfare for the rich invisible just as it goes out of its way to make welfare for the poor as humiliating as possible. I once thought about getting food stamps. There were over 50 pages of documents to get as much as $200 per month in food assistance. The TARP loans of billions of dollars? Two pages.

We’ve got to get the government off the backs of the banks! Matt Taibbi isn’t wrong to be angry.

Scientists Fighting Back on Global Warming

Environmental Defense FundThere is a very good article in Bloomberg Businessweek by Paul M. Barrett with the shocking title, It’s Global Warming, Stupid. It talks about a number of issues other than global warming, but the main point of the article is that storms like Sandy do tell us something about climate change.

Barrett quotes the Environmental Defense Fund VP Eric Pooley who offers up a near perfect analogy, “We can’t say that steroids caused any one home run by Barry Bonds, but steroids sure helped him hit more and hit them farther. Now we have weather on steroids.”

This is so good, I think it might work on ol’ Uncle Fox News Addict. (Isn’t there a 12-step program for that?) He’s the guy who insists that global warming is a conspiracy that Al Gore created to get rich, and that the oil companies, who make billions of dollars from carbon pollution, are just countering with the straight dope. You might be able to get him to think for a moment with that analogy.

What I’m really happy to hear is that scientists are starting to abandon the usual caveats. You know: all the stuff about uncertainty that nerds like me just love. But they are waking up to the fact that the opposition is just using this uncertainty to dismiss the whole science. Here’s what it comes down to: what is your best guess regarding climate change? Of those in the field, 98% will say it is real and it is happening right now. And most of those will go further: it is happening much faster than we had predicted. And it is terrifying.

Most of the article is about the election and Obama and Romney. In particular, it talks about market incentives and how conservatives like them. Indeed, there is real economics under all of this. Environmental degradation is a market externality. This means it is a cost that is not born by the market itself. An example is if your next door neighbor started a garbage dump. He and his customers would get the benefit of the dump, but you would get nothing for having to smell it. The cost of having the dump would not include an external cost: your degraded lifestyle.

Libertarians claim the answer to this is the courts. “Just sue your neighbor,” they claim. Just on its face, this is a stupid idea. Because of his dumping business, your neighbor will likely have many more resources in court than you do. But even if that weren’t the case, the courts would be a mess with all of the lawsuits. This is why we create things like zoning laws. In the case of global warming, a carbon tax really does make sense. And conservatives used to be for that—until they realized they could just deny the problem and all the mainstream media would play along.

At least now the scientists are wading into the fight with more determination.

Unskewed Polls Goes Bold

And I thought the crying child would be the best thing of the day. How wrong I was! Here is the Unskewed Polls projection of the presidential race:

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All you need to know here is that every state that Romney has even the slightest chance of winning is given to him. So even in Minnesota where Obama leads in every poll by 3 to 8 percentage points, Unskewed Polls, in their infinite wisdom calls the state for Romney. If this sounds familiar: it should.

If this election goes more or less as the polls suggest, it’s going to be fun to drop over to the Unskewed Polls website next Wednesday. On the other hand, if they turn out to be right, I’ll be too depressed to even think about what went wrong.

New Romney Narrative

Romney SmirkThere have been a few tweets the last couple of days speculating that in the event of a Romney loss, the Republicans will offer a new narrative. Most recently, this comes from Ben Smith at BuzzFeed, “Top Republicans are already hinting that if Romney loses, his people will blame the storm for stalling his momentum.” It goes like this: After the first debate, Romney’s campaign went into high gear. They were charging the finish line. They had momentum. They were going to win! But… The Hurricane. It destroyed Romney’s chances.

I don’t suppose this matters. If Romney loses, it will not cause the Republicans to admit that maybe their policies really are toxic. I think there is an important 47% in this country, but they aren’t the people who pay no federal income taxes. Instead, they are the people who find modern Republican values so vile they won’t vote for them regardless. (The number for Democrats is much lower: more like 35%.) That isn’t a lot of turf to fight over.

Before the hurricane, the narrative was going to be that Romney was too liberal. As Ann Coulter said, “If we don’t run Chris Christie, Romney will be the nominee, and we’ll lose.” The tendency among revolutionary movements is to treat losses as opportunities to purify. So the new narrative at least isn’t explicitly calling for more conservatism.

Regardless of the narrative the Republicans pick, the only way we can get them to move to the center is by defeating them in 2014. They have stayed alive (and even thrived) on the carcass of a broken electorate that just doesn’t show up for these off-year elections. If everyone voted, the United States would be a very blue country. So we need to spend the next two years convincing people that they must vote. Our very lives depend upon it.