Anniverary Post: Space Shuttle Columbia Disaster

Space Shuttle Columbia Crew - Sadly All DeadOn this day in 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster occurred. During the mission (STS-107), a small bit of foam had broken off and damaged the left wing. On re-entry, the wings broke off, causing the entire shuttle to break apart — killing all seven astronauts.

Funny thing, when I was a teen, I read, The World According to Garp. Garp was not exactly a character I connected with except in the sense that he was a writer and I kind of liked to write at that point in my life. But time goes on and Garp gets married and has children.

What does this have to do with the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster? I’m getting to it!

At one point, John Irving writes that if there was one thing that Garp cared about, it was keeping people safe. It seemed odd to me on two accounts. It didn’t seem to go along with the character that Irving had developed. And I really didn’t know what he was talking about.

As I got older, I understood. I worry about everyone. I don’t even have kids, but I worry. And this really is why I’m not so keen on the manned space program. I understand: these are pioneers. We’ve got to do this if we are going to make progress. But I’m still not over George Clooney dying in Gravity. And let’s face it, Sandra Bullock wouldn’t have survived either.

But I have great respect for brave people that push the limits of our existence. But they worry me. Constantly. And I hope they know that!

Anniversary Post: 2004 Exploding Whale

Exploding WhaleOn this day in 2004, an exploding whale event took place on its way to the Sutsao Wild Life Reservation Area in Taiwan where scientists were going to perform an autopsy on it. This was not an intentional explosion. When organic material decays, without the presence of oxygen, it creates hydrocarbons — most notably methane. This is what happened inside the whale. The methane built up and eventually: boom!

Although many people were present to watch the transport, no one was harmed. They did get covered with blubber and blood, however. The whale was eventually transported to its destination. And the autopsy was performed. It seems that the whale was hit by a ship, crushing part of its spine, and subsequently killing it. It’s very sad. I always find it hard to believe that ships can do this kind of damage. But they are moving very fast, and there is a great deal of inertia in the water.

Dead whales explode reasonably often. But when most people think of an exploding whale, they are thinking of something rather different. Back in 1970, a dead sperm whale had washed up on the cost of Florence, Oregon. As humorist Dave Barry noted at the time, “The responsibility for getting rid of the carcass was placed upon the Oregon State Highway Division, apparently on the theory that highways and whales are very similar in the sense of being large objects.” But things didn’t go that well. The officers loaded the whale with a half ton of dynamite, which blew large pieces of blubber very far away. One car over a quarter mile away was crushed. But luckily, no one was injured.

Clearly, care must be taken when dealing with dead whales. Although in the case of Taiwan, I give them credit for being interested in what had happened to this poor creature.

Minnesota Advice for Those Suffering the Cold Weather in the East

Cold Weather in St PaulWhen I moved to Minnesota, it got below 30°F or so. I called my mom in Oregon, to complain about the cold weather. But she was a Wisconsin native and did not take my discomfort all that seriously. “The day will come,” she told me, “when you think of zero as warm.” I did not believe her. But she was absolutely right.

As it gets below zero, and lingers there like God has a grudge against you, your best friends are layers. Lots of layers. Put on warm clothes. Then put warm clothes on over your warm clothes. Then put on a coat.

Real Cold Weather

My first winter in Minnesota, I was standing at the bus stop. A group of attractive women were across the street lined up to get into a happening bar. Most wore pantyhose. It was perhaps 5°F outside. I commented to the other person waiting at the stop, “I don’t care how great my legs look, I would not wear pantyhose in this cold weather.”

The other person responded, “Seriously? You’re not from here, are you? They’ll wear that when it’s 30 below!”

And, indeed, this is so.

The worst thing about cold weather is living in a ratty, broken down apartment building. My building dates back to 1908. It’s charmingly archaic — the first hotel in Saint Paul to feature electricity. Alas, this doesn’t mean quite as much as it did a century ago. And that means the storm windows also exhibit the high tech efficiency of the Edwardian period.

Every winter, I have to caulk up the windows and apply a layer of plastic film over them. It’s quite the process. For some reason, you need to run a hair dryer over the plastic film until it shrinks so every last plastic wrinkle is gone. This makes it warmer, I am told.

It’d be better if I lived in a newer building, of course. But apartments in the Twin Cities are crazy expensive. So, if you get an affordable one, you hang onto it for dear life — from 1908 onward, if necessary.

Cold Sweat

You can compensate for this with very thick blankets. That’s how the pioneers did it. Unfortunately, you start to sweat underneath those warm blankets, so now you’re wet. If there’s one state of being that you don’t want to inhabit when getting up and getting ready for work, it’s wet and cold.

Maybe that’s why pioneers all died from dysentery.

Oh, well — could be worse. I could own a car. Warming up a car in awful cold weather takes forever, it never gets comfortable. Compare this to the bus, which is perfectly nice the moment you step on board. I tell car owners how sad my life is, walking in lots of layers to a bus stop. And I am completely lying. I’m fine walking.

But my apartment is still cold! And don’t I deserve a little sympathy for that?! All you on the east coast will be warm soon enough.

Global Warming and How Trends Work

Global WarmingNot that facts matters, but The New York Times reported, 2015 Was Hottest Year in Historical Record, Scientists Say. Of course, as any actual scientist will tell you — even a lowly one like me who scrapes out a living filling the internet with crap — one year don’t mean a thing. Of course, in context, it’s in “Oh my God, we’re all going to die!” territory.

It reminds me back to last year, Seth Meyers Fails on Global Warming. You may remember that Ted Cruz was on Late Night With Seth Meyers. He claimed that there had been no global warming for the last 17 years. It’s a little strange, right? I mean, 17 years? Not 15 years or 20 years or even a dozen years. It’s too precise. And all it meant was that 17 years ago, we had a really hot year. Here’s the graph:

Yearly Average Surface Temperatures

Of course, this is not how trends are calculated for temperatures or anything else. You don’t look at the first year and then the last year and then divide them by the numbers in between. That gives the first and last years all the weighting and absolutely nothing for all the years in between. It’s not valid scientifically. And Ted Cruz and everyone else who uses this trick knows it isn’t true. Look at the graph: is there any question but that there is an increasing trend?

What’s more, look at 1973. It was a hot year for that time. Let’s compare it to 1985 — the middle of three very cool years. Oh my God! Global cooling! Of course during that period there really wasn’t a trend either way. Let’s look out to 1992 — it’s basically the same temperature as 1973. No global warming! But you can see very clearly that there was a 0.5°F increase in global temperatures over that two decade period. And what about going from 1970 to 2015 — a 45 year period. Clearly, there is an enormous increase in temperature.

Scientists could use this kind of nonsense too. They could say that temperatures were increasing much faster from 1992 to 1998 by starting with a very cold year and ending with a very hot year. Of course, they don’t. This is because scientists aren’t in the business of deceiving people. They aren’t in the business of coming up with any old theory that will justify the Saudi royal family continuing to cling onto power and that the Koch brothers continuing to give political donations.

But now we have the hottest year on record. I can assure you that there will be years a decade or two out that will be colder than last year. And Ted Cruz and George Will and Charles Krauthammer (or their replacements) will make the same argument. “There has been no global warming since 2015 because last year was an unusually cold year.” This really annoys me because it means that there is literally no data that will change their minds. Now they will say that just one hot year doesn’t mean a thing. And they’ll be right! But then they’ll wait for one cold year and suddenly one year will be all that it will take to prove that global warming is a hoax.

Afterword: Global Warming Ignorance

My father is almost fanatical about global warming. But many years ago, after my mother had died, he was involved with this woman who was a Fox News addict and something of a conspiracy theorist. And I was having dinner with them and global warming came up. And they said, “You don’t believe in that, do you?!” And then something was said about Al Gore and I did not push the point. I’m not one to think much of my (or anyone else’s) PhD. But I was shocked that I could spend a decade of my life doing nothing but studying this stuff, and these two old farts thought they knew more than I did because someone on television told them it was so. Here’s a rule of thumb: a bunch of smart people can be totally wrong about something. But it’s a good idea to know why they think something and not just assume they are as ignorant as you are.

Specious Atheist Arguments Don’t Mean a Thing

Born Again AtheistElizabeth sent me to this very interesting Luke McKinney article at Cracked, 5 Atheist Arguments Which Aren’t Helping Anyone. It is written by my kind of atheist: one who seems constantly frustrated at the state of atheism today. Back in 1990, I started going to local atheist meetings in Portland. And they were filled with the most extreme group of oddballs you have ever seen. But look at atheism today: it is so much more “normal” and acceptable. So I think people now can be more delusional about it. They think the day when religion is gone is nigh. And they really do sound a lot like missionaries.

In the past, it was enough to know that Christians were silly and to find others who knew that too. But here’s a big thing, most arguments I got into in those days were extremely open-minded on my side. I would have loved for my Christian friends to have been able to convince me. Such cheap salvation! Just believe one silly thing and your life has meaning! Who wouldn’t want that to be true? Of course, on the other side of those arguments were always the most closed-minded of people. There was no way they were ever going to yield a point because they had discovered that One Weird Trick for endless ecstasy.

Atheists have decided that they should have faith in science. And that’s good! Science is about the best thing we have going. But it doesn’t provide us with ultimate truth. There are limits to science.

One of the most annoying things that Christians do is make really lame arguments. How do you know that heaven is real? It says right here in John 3:16, “For God so loved the world, that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him shall not perish, but have eternal life.” Oh, that explains everything. So I know that heaven exists because someone who thought heaven existed wrote it down in a book. This is the kind of closed-minded and closed-loop thinking that drives atheists crazy. And with good reason!

Today, there are far too many atheists whose thinking is every bit as closed-minded and closed-loop as the worst Christians. And a lot of atheist arguments are just a bag of tricks that they think just destroy Christianity or whatever other religion you want to talk about. The most annoying of these are the paradox arguments. I wrote about this before, No Contradiction in Genesis Eve Creation. My main point there was that paradoxes are found everywhere — even in deductive systems. And certainly the existence of the universe is a paradox, so why wouldn’t a creation story have paradoxes? (I then go on to show that there isn’t really a paradox to begin with.)

But the biggest problem with these kinds of trivial atheist arguments is that they really only address Biblical literalism: the most primitive kind of belief. And it isn’t just the smug Twitter atheists who do this. I’ve read atheist books by Sam Harris, Christopher Hitchens, Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett, and many others. And not one of them deals with religion as it is practiced by intelligent, thoughtful people. Now that’s fine! The vast majority of people do practice a kind of brainless fideism. But these same authors seem to think that their atheist arguments have wider currency. And they don’t.

What I hate in all things is hubris. (I hate it in myself most of all.) When Penn Jillette wrote his pathetic book God, No! his main argument is that we just don’t know and that we shouldn’t believe in things that we don’t know about. It’s a nice thought. But of course, Jillette is lying. Atheists are as certain of their worldviews as everyone else. And the vast majority of them have far more faith in science than they should have. They suffer from some a kind of literalist-like error regarding it, “Science says it; I believe it; that settles it.” Well, no. That’s the thing about science: nothing is ever settled.

Atheists have decided that they should have faith in science. And that’s good! Science is about the best thing we have going. But it doesn’t provide us with ultimate truth. There are limits to science. (If there are limits to logic, there are limits to science — see Kurt Gödel.) But with regard to the atheist debates, we are stuck with the fact that most religious people have just as much faith in science. Read Carl Sagan’s interview (pdf) with the Dalai Lama.

I complain so much about atheists because I expect better of them. When a Jehovah’s Witness comes to my door wanting to explain how we know that God loves me because John said so, I don’t much care because they are idiots. What I can’t tolerate is people thinking that just because they believe in science, they can make equally specious but atheist arguments.

Getting Knowledge by Giving Knowledge

Teacher and Students Gaining KnowledgeI spent almost all of yesterday on the road and so I don’t have much time to go looking for things to write about. But there has been something on my mind for a good long time that I would like to related to you: how we gain knowledge by giving it away. But I’ll be honest: I may have written about this before. By the end of this month, Frankly Curious will have published 7,000 articles — the vast majority of them being by me. And I don’t know what I’ve written. The funny thing is that I often find that things I had thought I had written about — obvious things — I hadn’t.

When I was taking math in college, I was always at the top of my class. I remember the first calculus exam I ever took, I got an 86. The next best score was 63. And the rest were in the 40s. I don’t say that to indicate that I am particularly brilliant, even though when it comes to math I am something of a natural. But the point is that I was always helping other people. I was also a tutor of the more basic math students. But I always felt that I was getting far more out it than those I was helping.

But helping others does come naturally to me. I have never been of the mind that giving away knowledge is harming me. Others do not feel this way. I used to take care of all the IT work for a mid-sized real estate investment company. The “stars” of the company were the acquisition agents, who were responsible for purchasing land that could be sold quickly at a profit by the “lesser” agents. And these guys (all men) made a lot of money — between $10,000 and $20,000 per month. I rather liked them, although a few were jerks.

I am not a great mathematician. In graduate school, I met a number of people who blew me away. And I loved it! It’s great to be in a position to appreciate the brilliance of others.

There was one guy I quite liked. He was the most technically savvy of any of them. He was very accomplished with Visual Basic and could do amazing things with Excel. And over the years, I taught him a lot. And he explained a number of things with me. He had no problem answering any question I might have of him. (It wasn’t often; Excel wasn’t even part of our standard work tools.) But he certainly saw me as a guy who gave as much as he took.

But I noticed that he would not help the other agents. If they were having technical problems, they were on their own. And if they saw him do some cool trick, he would refuse to explain it to them. I thought this was very shortsighted. The truth is that he was always going to be top dog and by explaining, he was going to learn more.

Now I understand: he had other work to do. He was paid only on commission. But that attitude toward maintaining one’s knowledge advantage is very common. And it is more or less the basis of our economic system. This is, after all, what patents and copyrights are all about. You will notice that at the bottom of all the pages on Frankly Curious, it says, “© 2009-2016.” But that is the nature of the system. I would gladly change to a system where I do nothing but produce the best content I can in exchange for a reasonable standard of living but no ability to ever get rich. But that isn’t on offer, so I yield to the the realities of life.

Despite the fact that I was by far the best math student in any of my college classes, I am not a great mathematician. In graduate school, I met a number of people who blew me away. And I loved it! It’s great to be in a position to appreciate the brilliance of others. And I think that as time goes on, if our civilization continues to grow, we will get past this petty desire to maintain a knowledge advantage. Because passing on knowledge helps us all. And from a practical standpoint, it helps those who share it most of all.

Afterword: Knowledge Giving in Its Place

There is another side of this that I used to run into when I was doing IT — and which Will still has to deal with. When you are fixing a computer as a contractor, people will often want to sit next to you and “learn how to do it.” This is not the same thing. For one thing, having people ask a stream of questions makes the repair go much slower, and most repairs are not done on an hourly basis. For another thing, it is offensive. The implication is that all you are doing is this one thing — that knowing what to do isn’t part of a vastly larger base of knowledge. No one would ever think it appropriate to ask a plumber to teach them the art while the toilet gets fixed.

Anniversary Post: Huygens Space Probe

Huygens picture of Titan's surfaceExactly ten years ago, the Huygens space probe landed on the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan. It is the only probe to have successfully landed on an outer solar system object. Titan was a great choice, because it is the only moon in the solar system with a notable atmosphere. It’s surface pressure is about 40% greater than the Earth’s. And it’s atmosphere is made up mostly of nitrogen. Now you may wonder why all that nitrogen doesn’t just escape off into space. It is because it doesn’t have enough energy. Titan might not have much gravitational pull, but its surface temperature is 94 K — roughly -290 °F. Still, overall, it is a lot like the Earth with wind, rain, and seas. It is just that instead of water, Titan has liquids of simple hydrocarbons like methane and ethane.

In 1997, the European Space Agency launched Cassini—Huygens. It was an incredibly ambitious mission, flying by many planets and moons before going into orbit around Saturn in 2004. On 25 December 2004, Cassini released the Huygens probe, which reached Titan’s atmosphere on 14 January 2005. It descended to the surface two and a half hours later. Not a great deal was known about Titan until this mission, because (like with Venus), it’s think atmosphere obscured its surface details. In fact, it was long thought that Titan was the largest moon in the solar system, because its large atmosphere was counted as part of the solid moon.

One of the most interesting things about Titan is how much water it has. It’s density is less than double the density of water — and about half the density of the moon and one-third that of the Earth. On the surface are “rocks” of frozen water. But amazingly, Titan appears to have a thick subsurface layer of liquid water. Overall, it is about the most fascinating object in our solar system — other than the Earth itself.

After about an hour and a half on the surface of Titan, Huygens ran out of battery power and now just sits there on Titan. It is interesting to think, however, that it seems to have landed in a dry flood plane. So by now, it might have been carried off somewhere else. Titan really is very Earth like. So you can imagine what might happen to a similar probe that was just abandoned in the Mississippi delta.

Lumosity Can’t Help Your Brain or Your Soul

Lumosity“No matter why you want a better brain, Lumosity can help.” So said the endless ads with the squeaky clean faces and doodles drawn on and around those faces. It was supposed to help you “improve your performance with the science of neuroplasticity.” Reading it makes it sound kind of portentous, but the ads themselves came off more like an ad for visiting the local farmer’s market on Saturdays. It’s good for you — and the kind of thing that upper-middle class, college educated people do. Unfortunately, it turns out that attending the farmer’s market is about as effective as Lumosity at improving your performance “but in a way that just feels like games.”

Last week, Lumosity settled a $50 million lawsuit with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for false advertising. But they will only have to pay $2 million because the company is in bad financial shape. Now I’m not the kind of person to kick someone when they are down. So I leave it to you to piece together your own joke involving two or more of the words “bright,” “management,” “luminous,” “brain-training,” and “bankruptcy.” But it is a serious matter, because the company made some outrageous claims. As Jessica Rich at the FTC said:

Lumosity preyed on consumers’ fears about age-related cognitive decline, suggesting their games could stave off memory loss, dementia, and even Alzheimer’s disease. But Lumosity simply did not have the science to back up its ads.

But there was apparently one thing that Lumosity did help people with the training itself. As Michael Hiltzik put it, “The largest studies indicate there’s no effect except for performance on the tests themselves — possibly the result of increased familiarity with the tests.” And that’s great! But Noodlecake Studios’ Brickies is more fun and doesn’t cost $14.95 per month. (In fact, it is free.)

I understand the fear. But the commercials were clearly making an emotional appeal rather than an intellectual one. It was the “one weird trick” for losing belly fat — but for your brain. But I wonder about the people who liked these ads. And there are apparently 35 million people who pay for this service every month. I’m very much aware of my own mental deterioration over the years. But it isn’t as simple as my being smarter before. I know that I’m just not as good at doing quick mathematical computations. But it’s possible that is due to an autism like effect, where I was better at that kind of stuff because I didn’t think about much else.

With age comes different abilities. I’m able to make vastly more complex and creative connections than I could when I was 25 years old. But I was better at solving differential equations then. Lumosity promised to get me those old days back. But I’m highly skeptical that I could get that kind of brain processing back without losing the far more valuable things I’ve gained since. So the woman in the commercial who wants to “remember people’s names” strikes me as having an awfully dangerous desire.[1] Are we willing to give up a profound understanding of the system of people we interact with just so we can know their names, like we are performing Harry Lorayne’s memory trick?

I don’t know what people want from their brains. My longstanding belief has been that it is far more important to be interesting than “smart.” And that is usually just a question of people being themselves. I have one friend who is incredibly well read — especially when it comes to philosophy. And he can be annoying to talk to, because he can (And does!) name an author who wrote about any “new” idea I’ve recently been thinking of. It tends to be a conversation stopper. At the same time, many people I consider a bit dim can make me rethink the whole world.

So even if Lumosity were delivering on its promises, I think what it was offering was awful: junk food for the brain and the soul.

Anniversary Post: Discovery of Titania and Oberon

TitaniaOn this night in 1787, William Herschel discovered the two largest moons of Uranus: Titania and Oberon. He had also discovered the planet six years earlier. Of course, “discovered” is a strange word, because Hipparchos recorded it as early as 128 BC. But he thought it was a star. Herschel himself originally thought it a comet. This is one of the reasons that I think everyone really owes it to themselves to go visit some amateur astronomers. Spend a night in the cold and see with our advanced technologies, just how hard it is to tell a star from a comet from a planet. And also note just how many stars are in the sky. And how vast it all is. It is a spiritual experience.

But the issue at hand today is the discovery of these first two moons. They’re tiny. Well, a bit more than half the radius of Pluto, and a quarter its mass. Larger, but comparable in size to Pluto’s biggest moon Charon. I still find it amazing. Our Moon is the fifth largest moon in the solar system; it’s very large compared to the Earth. And Charon is huge compared to Pluto. But Uranus has these tiny moons. Of course, that makes the detection of them all the more amazing.

Titania and Oberon are very similar: size, mass, inclination, eccentricity. They have the same composition: about half and half rock and ice. In fact, they are so much alike, it’s kind of creepy. The main difference between them is that Oberon has a whole lot more craters. It is assumed that Titania experienced some recent major event that covered over the old surface. If you look at the image above, you can see an enormous impact in the upper right-hand corner. Could it be that a huge impact temporarily liquefied the surface? I’ve never heard anyone argue that, and I do know that our Moon has bigger impacts. But it isn’t half made of ice!

It’s interesting that Herschel named the moons after the two most boring characters in A Midsummer Night’s Dream. Okay. Not the most boring, but I’ve always found that subplot very lame and kind of misogynistic. Anyway, I don’t know what to think of objects like these in space. The solar system is a bizarre place. And our solar system is really boring. Thank God! If I gave it more thought, I’d spend all my time hiding under the bed. But it’s great that people like William Herschel are around looking at the skies. And like I said: you really should go out. I’ve put in my time. Although I still gaze at the night sky every chance I get — just not huddled around a telescope for hours at a time.

Anniversary Post: CQD or Sécurité Distress

Wireless Signal CQDOn this day in 1904, CQD was adopted by the Marconi Company as the official distress symbol for radio use. For those who do not know Morse Code, it is: — · — ·   — — · —   — · ·. The reason for its use was that CQ was short for sécu, which was in turn short for sécurité, which means “security” but became short for “all stations.” It was an alert to everyone. They added the D for “distress,” so that CQD meant: “all stations: distress.”

It wasn’t a good distress signal. The CQ signal was quite common. And B was very similar to D: — · · ·. So it was easy enough for a non-distress signal to be mistaken for a distress signal. Two years later, the international standard became SOS. It’s a much better choice between it is a very clear signal. Even for me (and I find Morse Code very difficult to hear intuitively), it stands out: · · ·   — — —   · · ·.

One interesting thing is that at least CQD did mean something. But it wasn’t exactly memorable. People took to coming up with different phrases for it. For example: “Come Quick, Danger” and the charming “Come Quick — Drowning!” SOS, on the other hand, means absolutely nothing. It is just a distinctive sounding pattern. But it to was later given phrases like “Save Our Ship.”

Of course, all of this is just kind of weird. The first rescue that was accomplished via wireless communication was simply, “HELP.” I’m sure that with much more radio traffic having something clear and simple was helpful. But ultimately, seconds don’t matter — or if they do, you are out of luck. SOS did not help the Titanic. Although interestingly, they also transmitted CQD.

Anniversary Post: Discovery of Eris

Eris and DysnomiaOn this day in 2005, Eris was discovered. It is the largest dwarf planet known to exist in our solar system. But who knows; with objects so small, so far away, it is hard to say that we won’t find something larger. As it was, it took just under 75 years to discover a dwarf planet larger than Pluto. Of course, “larger” is a vague word. Pluto is very slightly more voluminous than Eris; but it is more than 25% more massive than Pluto.

Now I don’t want to start a fight. If you want to call Pluto a planet, fine. And everyone I talk to who wants to do so is fine with calling Eris a planet too. But let’s be clear. If we hadn’t all been raised with Pluto being called a planet, no one would be running around saying that Eris ought to be called a planet. I mean, it only has a quarter the mass of our Moon. It has a volume of one-third. It would rightly be called some misbehaving moon. And it may well be just that: a moon that got dislodged from some planet. It certainly does have an amazingly strange orbit that is more befitting a comet than a planet.

Will we visit Eris? Frankly, I don’t much care. I think we are going to find that it is a lot like Pluto. But calculations have been made. If we launch in 2032 or 2044, it would take a bit less than 25 years to reach the dwarf planet. It would be roughly 90 AU (distance from Earth to Sun) at that point. I’m not sure if there are any plans to do it, but I’ll be dead by then anyway.

Rain Rain Don’t Go Away Stay Around Another Day

RaindropsI loved the rain when I was a kid. It caused my parents some consternation that I loved most to play in the rain. The rain is almost magical. And growing up, it created a certain discord in me because I loved the rain but I knew that my father, a building contractor, could not work when it rained. And this was a problem because my father’s business acumen was very similar to that of Bob Belcher on Bob’s Burgers. That is: we were always living on the edge but proud of the quality of dad’s workmanship.

But there was something deeper about my love of rain. As I know I’ve explained before, I’ve always been highly skeptical of gravity. It’s like electricity. In college, the only course I had trouble with was electronics. I wanted to know why electrons went to ground. And my professors would always give me the same lame answer, “Where else would they go?” I don’t know! These people have such confidence in the universe. It was probably a mistake for someone with such a strong mystical and metaphysical orientation to go into physics. It’s like a Jew joining the Klan. But I did it and it was doubtless good for me.

This last month has been interesting in that we’ve had a lot of storms, but they come through and drop a quarter or a half inch of rain and that’s it.

But I still don’t trust gravity. I am a master of mechanics. I understand all the theory that explains why the Moon doesn’t fall on my head and why I don’t float away from the surface of the Earth. But when I see a big blue sky, I still think that all my years of experience being pressed to the surface of the Earth is just a great big bluff and that God is going to flip a switch and I’m going to go floating away. For millennia, people have been searching for the meaning of existence. But that’s what it is: God’s practical joke on Frank. Oh, how he will laugh!

Up until about 8 years ago, I was skinny. Painfully skinny. And my grandmother used to tell me all he time, “One day a wind will come up and blow you away!” But what was I supposed to do? Drink the milk she served that came from a cow? I knew there was something very wrong with all that and so I was always skeptical of food that didn’t come from inside a well designed box. And by the way: my grandmother was very small too, so I don’t know what she was complaining about.

Rain Rain Go AwayThis image of my body being blown away has never left me. But I don’t imagine wind. I just imagine gravity not working. And let’s face it: it could happen. It’s not like we have a contract. Remember Bertrand Russell’s example of the chicken: every day is great and then one day they cut your head off. Now, for the record, if gravity stopped, the atmosphere would immediately vanish, and we would suffocate if we weren’t first destroyed by high energy particles. But the fact remains that we would die — and fast.

Somehow, cloud cover and even nighttime makes me feel less exposed. And rain is even better because it is falling — a sure sign that gravity is still working as advertised and that God hasn’t sprung his little practical joke. But all this is just the result of my having a fanciful imagination. I understand that. There are very real feelings that go along with it, but I know intellectually that there is nothing to fear. The problem is that now there is a related fear that is very real indeed.

For the purpose of rainfall totals, the season starts on 1 July. And here in my hometown of Santa Rosa, we have an average rainfall total by the end of December of 11.4 inches. And last year, we had a very wet December with roughly 12 inches in that month along, but a total of over 17 inches for the season to that point. It looked great. It looked like our drought was over. But it wasn’t.

Normally, the first three months of the year have rainfall totals: 6.0, 5.2, and 3.6. But last year, we got: 0.9, 0.4, and 1.9. This year, we should normally have a total rainfall of 11.4 inches. Instead, we have 6.7 or 7.5, depending upon the source. It’s depressing.

But there is El Niño. This year, it is a very big one. But we haven’t seen much of it. This last month has been interesting in that we’ve had a lot of storms, but they come through and drop a quarter or a half inch of rain and that’s it. We are getting snow in the Sierras, and that is very good indeed. But not as much as we might hope. Still, El Niño is not supposed to really hit until later: January, February, and March. But currently, there is no sign of rain until 5 January at the earliest. And the promised rain has disappointed again and again in the past.

If things don’t change soon, people will float away — not into the sky, but to other areas that haven’t turned into deserts.