Digby on Clinton’s VP Pick: Tim Kaine

Digby on Tim Kaine for VPTim Kaine has a somewhat centrist history on banking and trade which is worrisome to progressives for whom these issues are their litmus tests. So, in these particulars, Kaine isn’t a particularly progressive choice.

But he’s very good on war, civil liberties, gun proliferation, criminal justice, healthcare, civil rights, and immigration among other things. The fact that he speaks perfect Spanish, which he learned serving in Honduras, is meaningful to Latinos.

Clinton is trying to run as an experienced, competent, rational, decent mainstream leader of a team of experienced, competent, rational, decent mainstream public servant in contrast to Donald Trump: the con artist who wants to blow up the world. I don’t know that policy is even the point, but to the extent it is, they are running under the most progressive platform in history (thank you Bernie), which just shows how far the coalition has come since the day Al Gore chose Joe Lieberman, one of the most depressing days of my life.

—Heather Digby Parton
So, Tim Kaine

“Education Reform” and the Destruction of Meaning

The Face of Education ReformErik Loomis wrote an article a while back, The Rheeist Scam Goes Global. It’s about Michelle Rhee and the whole “education reform” movement. But I was taken by the cartoon he used, which showed men building a charter school by taking away materials from a close-by public school. I have always thought of “education reform” in terms of intent: the destruction of teacher unions. But until I looked at the cartoon (which is not making this point), I had never really thought about what will be the result of “education reform.”

I think we should be clear about those leading the “education reform” movement. As Deep Throat says in All the President’s Men, “These are not very bright guys.” They know they want to destroy unions. They know they want to turn education into some kind of a factory process. But after that, it’s all faith. It’s like the old Sidney Harris cartoon where the second step in a proof is, “Then a miracle occurs.” That’s the “education reform” movement all over. Step 1: destroy education as we know it. Step 2: then a miracle occurs. Step 3: all people grow up well educated and healthy.

What “Education Reform” Working Would Mean

But let’s give all these reformers the benefit of the doubt. They will change education into employment skills training. And we don’t end up with Idiocracy (which is a tedious film). We end up with something that looks more like the B F Skinner dystopia. It would be like Modern Times but with everyone content doing their jobs because that’s all they would know. The search for meaning would be obsolete because everyone would know the meaning of their lives: to make the owners of Walmart rich.

But none of that would be so bad if it weren’t for the total disregard for everything educational outside what is useful for IBM and Apple.

It made me think of Babe: Pig in the City. More specifically: the most poignant scene in the film. It is when Babe and company free all the animals from the “jail.” Thelonius, the old orangutan, insists upon dressing before they leave, even though time is a factor. He has found a meaning in his life — and he’s too old to change. (He gets the best ending in the film, handing clothespins to Herself.) And I imagine myself that way at 80.

I suppose that all people feel this way to some extent as they grow older. But in general, things change for the better. “Education reform” is moving us in a rather worse direction — ignorantly, but quite deliberately. And for the most base of motives. I mean, who do you think is paying Jonathan Chait’s wife to “reform” education? It’s a bunch of super rich conservatives and neoliberals. How proud they must all be: destroying the very concept of childhood so that Microsoft and Facebook will have a well-trained workforce. It keeps wages down too!

Trivial Meaning

But none of that would be so bad if it weren’t for the total disregard for everything educational outside what is useful for IBM and Apple. You could force children to learn Scratch and still give them time to escape in literature and music and mud pie creation. Instead, what I see is 6 hours of school and 3 hours of mind-numbing homework. No time for novel reading, because reading is meant for technical manuals.

It isn’t like the meaning I find in life is perfect. It is distinctly imperfect and incomplete. But at least I know it is worth the search. I don’t like the idea of being my own version of Thelonius — stupidly looking for meaning when the product of decades of “education reform” has trained society to get with the program and sing the company song.

Cure Income Inequality: Income Mobility! Not So Fast!

Income MobilityAgainst a rising chorus of concern about increasing income inequality, some economists are pushing back, suggesting that it is not income inequality we should be concerned with but rather income mobility. Income mobility describes the ability of individuals to move up and down the income ladder over some period of time. As long as mobility is healthy, they argue, society can remain egalitarian in the face of inequality, because the poor can move up and the rich down.

Intuitively, some observers assume that higher income inequality should be correlated with decreased income mobility as the rich build a bigger lead on the rest of society. But there is little consensus about whether and how income mobility has changed. What little research does exist is inconsistent with regards to findings, methods, and data sources. Equitable Growth grantees Michael D Carr and Emily E Wiemers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston used a new dataset to revisit the measurement of earnings mobility, the part of income that comes from work. Their results suggest that lifetime earnings mobility has declined in recent years.

—Austin Clemens
New Analysis Shows It Is More Difficult for Workers to Move up the Income Ladder

US Government’s Obscene Assassination Justification

Jeremy Scahill - ImminentObama has before compared the drone program to dealing with a sniper on a roof of a building who is pointing the rifle at children on a playground. And he say, you know, “I understand what the ACLU’s objections are and human rights people and stuff. But do we need to go to a judge to get authorization to take that shooter down before he kills a bunch of kids on a playground? No we don’t.” And I think… everyone in this room agrees with that. If you have someone who’s going to kill a bunch of kids, and they’re a sniper, and they’re not responding to any kind of attempts to get them to put the rifle down, people in this society overwhelmingly would say, “Yes. If we need to kill that person we’ll kill them.”

The problem is, that’s a fake analogy. They have never provided a shred of evidence that a single person that they’ve killed in a drone strike represented an imminent threat to US persons or the security of the United States. They have never given a shred of evidence to suggest that they killed someone en route to putting a bomb on a plane. I guarantee you, because this White House leaks like crazy, if they had that evidence they would put it out there…

If their standard was just that we’re killing people that we think maybe in the future might in certain circumstances try to encourage others to commit acts of terrorism — If that was the policy! — okay, that’s what they’re doing. But that’s not what they say the policy is. They say the policy is we’re targeting people who represent an imminent — “imminent” is their word — threat to US interests, US persons, and US facilities around the world. If that’s the standard then you have to say then what is the definition of the word “imminent.”

There was a white paper of the Justice Department leaked in advance of John Brennan’s confirmation hearings to be CIA director, that had a definition of the word “imminent” not even the most barely literate English speaker would recognize as the definition of “imminent.” It basically was like if you ever thought about terrorism in your life, we can kill you in a drone strike.

—Jeremy Scahill
The Government’s Secret War with Drones

Some Law Professor on “Exclusion” of BLM

Anonymous Law Professor - Black Lives MatterThere is a difference between focus and exclusion. If something matters, this does not imply nothing else does. If I saw “Law Students Matter” it does not imply that my colleagues, friends, and family do not. Here is something else that matters: context. The Black Lives Matter Movement arose in a context of evidence that they don’t. When people are receiving messages from the culture in which they live that their lives are less important than other lives, it is a cruel distortion of reality to scold them for not being inclusive enough…

There are some implicit words that precede “Black Lives Matter,” and they go something like this:

Because of the brutalizing and killing of black people at the hands of the police and the indifference of society in general and the criminal justice system in particular, it is important that we say that…

This is, of course, far too long to fit on a shirt.

Black Lives Matter is about focus, not exclusion. As a general matter, seeing the world and the people in it in mutually exclusive, either/or terms impedes your own thought process. If you wish to bear that intellectual consequence of a constricting ideology, that’s your decision. But this does not entitle you to project your either/or ideology onto other people who do not share it.

—Anonymous Law Professor
Law Professor’s Response to BLM Shirt Complaint

H/T: Elizabeth

Fact Checking 2 Minutes of Donald Trump on 60 Minutes

Donald Trump: Fact CheckingDonald Trump was on 60 Minutes last night for what turned out to be a softball interview. He was allowed to say anything and wasn’t countered on anything. I watched just two minutes of it and was overwhelmed with everything he said that was flat out wrong.

Donald Trump: “We need strong borders. We have people coming to our country who can't be vetted properly. They don't have paperwork. They don't have anything. We don't even know where they come from.”
This is a lie. Trump is well aware of the fact that the United States has an extensive vetting program in place for those who seek refugee status in the United States.
Donald Trump: “Look, we have people that hate us. We have people that want to wipe us out. We have people that, if given the chance, will try to wipe us out.”
This is glaringly inaccurate. ISIS is not in favor of wiping us out for no reason. They have a real desire to establish a purely Islamic state based on the time from about 2 centuries after the Prophet Mohammad existed. By now, Trump should know this and to say otherwise is a lie.
Donald Trump: “And, as you know and as everyone knows, I was against the war in Iraq. I was totally against it, because I said it would destabilize the Middle East. And it has. That's exactly what has happened. It was a very bad decision. The way President Obama got us out of that war was a disaster.”
No we don’t know. Because the only thing he said about it was in March of 2003 when he said it was a mess. Not that he opposed it. Opposing a poorly run war is not opposing the actual start of the war.
Donald Trump: “And we are going to have surrounding states and very importantly, get NATO involved, because we support NATO far more than we should, frankly, because you have a lot of countries that are not doing what they are supposed to be doing.”
NATO has been involved in dealing with the Syrian and ISIS war since 2014. The individual member states are all involved and have been working to get rid of the group.
Donald Trump: “We have to wipe out ISIS. And speaking of Turkey, Turkey is an ally. Turkey can do it by themselves. But they have to be incentivized. For whatever reason, they are not. So, we have no choice.”
Actually this is something Turkey has said they can’t do themselves and they asked for help a long time ago.
Donald Trump: “Hillary Clinton invented ISIS with her stupid policies. She is responsible for ISIS. She led Barack Obama, because I don't think he knew anything. I think he relied on her.”
A woman. Invented a misogynist regime that enslaves women. No.

That was two minutes of Donald Trump on what was once a great place for reporting.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, John Jay, and the Political Court

Ian Millhiser - John JayJohn Jay was the first Chief Justice of the United States. Appointed at a time when the Supreme Court played a far more diminished role than it does today — the Court heard only four cases during Jay’s six years on the bench — Jay took a break from his judicial duties to serve as President Washington’s envoy to negotiate a trade agreement with Great Britain.

It’s difficult to exaggerate the divisiveness of the Jay Treaty. As Ron Chernow details in the book that inspired the musical Hamilton, this treaty formed one of the sharpest dividing lines between Alexander Hamilton’s Federalists and Thomas Jefferson’s Republicans. To Jefferson’s faction, “the Jay Treaty represented, its rawest form, a Federalist capitulation to British hegemony and a betrayal of the historic alliance with France.”

Graffiti appeared in Boston proclaiming “Damn John Jay! Damn everyone who won’t damn John Jay!! Damn everyone that won’t put lights in his windows and sit up all night damning John Jay!!!” Jay himself once quipped that he could travel at night from Boston to Philadelphia guided only by the light of his burning effigies.

It’s as if Justice Ginsburg had spent the Court’s summer recess drafting and personally lobbying for Obamacare, taking a break only to negotiate an open borders agreement with Mexico. The first Chief Justice of the United States was the central figure in one of the most contested issues in the nation’s early history — an issue so divisive that it played a significant role in the creation of coherent political parties in the United States.

—Ian Millhiser
Ruth Bader Ginsburg Is the Latest in a Long Line of Justices to Weigh in on Politics

Dean Baker on Financial Transaction Tax

Dean Baker on BloombergBloomberg is really pushing the frontiers in journalism. In order to give readers a balanced account of a proposal by Representative Peter DeFazio to impose a 0.03 percent tax on financial transactions (that’s 3 cents on every hundred dollars) it went to the spokesperson for the Investment Company Institute, the chief investment officer from Vanguard, and an academic with extensive ties to the financial industry. It also presented an assertion on the savings from electronic trading from Markit Ltd. Based on this diverse range of sources, Bloomberg ran a headline: “Democrats assail Wall Street with plan that may hit mom and pop.” …

Most research finds that trading is price elastic, meaning that the percentage change in trading in response to a tax is larger than the percentage increase in trading costs that result from the tax. The non-partisan Tax Policy Center assumed an elasticity of -1.25 in its analysis of financial transactions taxes.

This means that if the tax proposed by DeFazio would raise the cost of trading by 20 percent, then trading volume would decline by 1.25 times as much, or 25 percent. Investors would pay 20 percent more on each trade, but would be trading 25 percent less. This means that their trading costs would actually fall as a result of the tax…

The only way “mom and pop” get hurt in this story is if they make money on average on their trades. That is a hard story to tell. If mom and pop are lucky and sell their stock when it is high then some other mom and pop are unlucky and buy the stock when it is over-valued. As a general rule, trading will end up being a wash…

Of course there is someone that gets hurt by less trading — the folks who were making money on the trades — that’s right: the financial industry… Since it may not sound very compelling to hear a multi-millionaire complain about the prospect of a pay cut, it sounds much better to make up a story about mom and pop investors.

—Dean Baker
Bloomberg Asks Wall Street How It Feels About Taxing Wall Street

Police Are Civilians

Police Are CiviliansPolice are civilians. They are the civil power. They are not soldiers. They are subject to the rule of law adjudicated within civilian courts — not military justice. They are tasked with special powers and thus burdened with specific responsibilities and duties — but they’re civilians. They answer to mayors and (civilian) police commissioners and city councils and ultimately the public.

It’s an expression of the dangerous militarization of the police to distinguish them from “civilians” — those who are in fact citizens, fellow citizens, the commonwealth.

Say “police and the community.” Say “police and the public.” Don’t say them and us, even when that’s too often what’s felt. We can’t get from there to here if we encumber cops and everyone else in language that preserves the wall between those of our fellow citizens who carry badges and guns and those whom they serve.

—Tom Levenson
Pet Peeve

H/T: Elizabeth

Election Fundamentals in 2016

Election Fundamentals Favor Hillary ClintonIs Steve M at No More Mister Nice Blog right when he says, This Election Is Going to Be a Nail-Biter? He’s looking at the recent polls that show Donald Trump gaining on Hillary Clinton. Now I don’t think polls mean much right now. But I do keep remembering back to 1980, when Democrats were happy that they were going to be running against the extremist Ronald Reagan. And the data we have indicates that economic considerations account for about half of the outcome in a presidential election. So I thought it might be a good time to discussion some election fundamentals.

Polls Don’t Mean Much Now

Before I get to that, Steve M is being a bit silly. It’s not just that it is way early in this election. It is also that the timing is bad. We just came off the whole “rigged system” narrative that the right wing has been pushing about Clinton not getting indicted. Very few people even know what the issue is, but there is a tendency for people to think that smoke implies fire. We may be innocent until proven guilty in court, but in most people’s minds, we are guilty until proven innocent.

And let’s be prepared for things to get worse. The RNC is next week and that always gives candidates a bump. Just remember that Michael Dukakis had a 15 percentage point lead over the elder Bush after the DNC in 1988. And Dukakis went on to lose California — and didn’t win New York by all that much (4 percentage points — compared to the 28 that Obama beat Romney by in 2012). So we should all calm down.

Election Fundamentals Tell Us More

But to be honest, I haven’t liked what I’ve seen in the election fundamentals either. My simple model just looks at the trend of the unemployment rate (U3) in the first 10 months of the election year. If the trend is negative (unemployment is going down), it is good news for the party in power. If it is positive, it is good news for the party in opposition. And look at what we have for the first six months of this year:

    Jan: 4.9
    Feb: 4.9
    Mar: 5.0
    Apr: 5.0
    May: 4.7
    Jun: 4.9

To the naked eye, it looks flat, because when it comes to trends, we tend to look at the first and last numbers and go with that. But right now, this is a distinctly negative trend -0.017% per month. I know that doesn’t mean much without context. So here’s some context:

1988 (Bush-Dukakis): -0.033;
1992 (Bush-Clinton): +0.021;
1996 (Clinton-Dole): -0.50;
2000 (Gore-Bush): -0.007;[1]
2004 (Bush-Kerry): -0.033;
2008 (McCain-Obama): +0.179;
2012 (Obama-Romney): -0.046.

Hillary Clinton Is Winning

So right now the election fundamentals favor Hillary Clinton by just about the same amount as they favored Bill Clinton when he was first elected in 1992. And she’s doing considerably better on the election fundamentals than Mr Gore in 2000. If I had to pick between polls after a bad news cycle for Clinton and the economics at play, I would go for the economics.

Of course, the election fundamentals could change. Although Alan Greenspan was willing to let the unemployment rate get all the way down to 3.9%, it does not seem that the current Fed Chair Janet Yellen is. For years, the Fed has been itching to raise interest rates to slow our already anemic recovery. But I think the worst that will happen is that the unemployment rate trend will be flat. Unless something horrible happens, it is unlikely to go in Donald Trump’s favor.

What that means is that Donald Trump is going to have to make this election about something other than the economy. And that will be hard to do given that a bad economy is the basis of pretty much his entire campaign. The wall? The racism? China? It’s all based on economics. So it’s actually looking pretty good for Hillary Clinton right now. And I didn’t think that before I started writing this article.

Richard Seymour on a Possible Labour Split

Richard SeymourNone of this means that a split, should it come, is something anyone in the Labour Party should welcome. It would be unspeakably selfish and venal, conducted for the most narrow, shortsighted and base of motives. And the mere fact that it would be intended to trash Labour, to hurt it so badly that it returns to obedience, should inspire rage and contempt.

But it does mean that those who are making the prospect of a split their red line, as it were, are entirely wrong in their focus. The coup plotters have started this process, in a premeditated way, and don’t have a road-map out of the situation they have created. The responsibility is on them to negotiate their retreat, to make peace with their defeat, and to work with whichever leadership the party members wish to elect.

If a small number of those MPs, having gained careers and power on the back of the labor movement, and on the back of the Labour Party, are prepared to try to wreck it when they don’t get their way — well, then, to hell with them. Let them go, and see how far they get. They will lose.

—Richard Seymour
This Is Not 1981, and an SDP Mark II Will Not Work

Anonymous Leaker on Government Assassination

James Bond -TIDEOver the past few years, we’ve heard a lot about President Obama’s secret kill list. Yet still we know virtually nothing about its implementation. Despite mild Congressional scrutiny and ACLU lawsuits directed at the shroud of secrecy, some basic questions remain unanswered. How do you get on the list? Am I on the list? Who put me on the list? How do you get off the list? Can you get off the list?

The truth is there are several such lists used to target individuals for different reasons. Some lists are closely kept. Others span multiple intelligence and local law enforcement agencies. There are lists used to kill or capture supposed high value targets. And others are intended to threaten, coerce, or simply monitor a person’s activity. However, all the lists, whether to kill or silence, originate from the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment [TIDE] and they are maintained by the Terrorist Screening Center [TSC] at the National Counterterrorism Center.

The existence of TIDE is unclassified. Yet details about how it functions in our government are completely unknown to the public. In August 2013, the database reached a milestone of one million entries. Today it is thousands of entries larger and is growing faster than it has since its inception in 2003. The March 2013 Watchlisting Guidance lays out the broad criteria for nominating someone to the database.

Not only does the Terrorist Screening Center reserve the right to store your name, date of birth, and other basic identifying information, but it also stores your medical records, transcripts, and passport data. Your license plate numbers, email, and cell phone number — along with the phone’s international mobile subscriber identity and international mobile station equipment identity numbers. Your bank account and purchases. And other sensitive information, including DNA and photographs capable of identifying you using facial recognition software.

The National Counterterrorism Center collaborates annually with agencies from the international alliance known as Five Eyes [FVEY] to supplement any information missing from entries already in its database. Or to add more entries. Individual entries in the database are assigned a TIDE Personnel Number (or TPN). From Osama bin Laden (TPN 1063599) to Abdulrahman al-Awlaki (TPN 26350617) — the American son of Anwar al-Awlaki. Anyone who has ever been the target of a covert operation was first assigned a TPN, and closely monitored by all agencies who follow that TPN long before they were eventually put on a separate list and extra-judicially sentenced to death.

When governments begin to tally enormous enemies lists, they run roughshod over our essential checks on power. Especially when they consider their own citizens to be a threat. Of the more than one million entries in the TIDE database, approximately 21,000 are those of American citizens. By leaking this information, I hope to give the public an opportunity to know what kind of activity might lead to their being placed on a list used to monitor their everyday activity. For the first time, the public has an opportunity to gain insight into the criteria that could potentially lead to their own trial by drone strike.

In 2008, I shook hands with Senator Obama when he came through my town on his way to the White House. After his inauguration, he said, “Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.” I firmly believe those principles are crucial to an open society, which is why I was compelled to reveal this information. If this administration lacks the courage to uphold its promises to the people, then I and others like me will do so for them.

—Anonymous Leaker read by Jeremy Scahill
The Government’s Secret War with Drones