Obama’s Mass Lesbian Infiltration Plan

Jonathan ChaitBarack Obama is nearing the finish line of a presidency filled with accomplishments ranging from death panels to FEMA camps to the importation of Sharia law. Year eight is a natural time for Obama to unveil the most deviously brilliant plot of them all: mass lesbian infiltration of the agriculture sector. The Department of Agriculture has cleverly designed this scheme as an innocuous outreach summit to LGBT Americans living in rural areas. But Rush Limbaugh has exposed the administration’s true intentions, which are nothing less than a full-scale assault on the last bastion of red-state America.

Here’s how it works. “Rural America happens to be largely conservative. Rural America is made up of self-reliant, rugged individualist types,” explains Limbaugh. (Farmers are “self-reliant” because, even though their sector is technically the recipient of heavy federal subsidies, they are overwhelmingly white.) …

I mean, it’s pretty obvious that once Obama locks up the farmers in FEMA camps, he’s going to need to repopulate the farms with political loyalists, or else the cities will have food shortages. That’s where the lesbians come in. By the time Hillary Clinton is running for her fourth term, red America will have been completely liquidated, and she won’t even need Acorn to steal the election for her.

—Jonathan Chait
Mass Lesbian Farm Infiltration Is Obama’s Best Scheme Yet

Fun With Voter Math and Southern White Females

Brad DeLong - Southern White FemalesBrad DeLong wrote an interesting article a few weeks ago, Josh Barro Makes Me Aware of Niall Ferguson. But as an aside, he noted, “[Hillary Clinton] is behind by roughly 22 percentage points among southern whites — who are, increasingly, acting like a very separate ethnicity (and 40 percentage points behind, perhaps, among southern white males — suggesting white females are close).” I immediately thought, “Ah, a chance to do some math and nail down those southern white females!”

It should surprise no one that DeLong’s offhand guess turns out to be roughly right. But I still think it is interesting to go through it. Why? Because math is fun. And yes, this is not pure math; it is applied math. And it is only pure math that gets me really excited. But nonetheless, I’m pretty excited. Just how likely are southern white females to vote for Hillary Clinton?

Let’s Get Mathematical

Now, I don’t know where he gets the statistics — maybe from this CNN/ORC poll (PDF). And I’m not terribly happy with him throwing in “perhaps” when discussing Trump being ahead by 40 percentage points among southern white males. But it all sounds about right. And I’m more interested in the math anyway.

Math nerds will immediately notice that we can exactly calculate the percentage of southern white females who will vote for Hillary Clinton. In order to do this, we need to define a few variables:

  • F: percentage of southern white females who will vote for Clinton
  • M: percentage of southern white males who will vote for Clinton
  • T: percentage of all southern whites who will vote for Clinton
  • P: percentage of all southern white voters who are southern white females.

The Equation Enters

Thus we can set up the following equation:

P×F + (1-P)×M = T

If Hillary Clinton is down by 22 percentage points among all southern whites, that means she is getting 39% of the vote. This is the value of T. Similarly, if she is down by 40 percentage points among southern white males, she is getting 30% of the vote. This is the value of M. For the moment, let’s assume that men and women vote in equal numbers. So P = 50%. Thus, the equation becomes:

F = (T – (1-P)×M)/P = (0.39 – (1-0.5)×0.30)/0.5) = 0.48 = 48%

That looks good for DeLong’s prediction. But we aren’t done.

The Plot Thickens (But Not Much)

It turns out that in presidential elections, men and women do not vote (PDF) at the same rate. In 2012, voter turnout for men was 59.8%. For women, it was 63.7%. In addition, more women are registered to vote. In 2012, only 71.4 million men were registered to vote, while 81.7 million women were. I see no reason why things should be different for southern white females.

Doing a little simple arithmetic, we see that in 2012, 43 million men and 52 million women voted. (Note: this does not add up to the 127 million who voted. I assume this is due to the sampling and that the percentages are still correct.) This means that women represent 55% of all voters. If we assume the same is true of southern white females, we get the slightly more complicated equation:

F = (T – (1-P)×M)/P = (0.39 – (1-0.55)×0.30)/0.55) = 0.46 = 46%

Clinton Doesn’t Need Southern White Females

Clearly, Hillary Clinton could stand to do a bit better with southern white females. But it was never a question but that she was going to the lose the white vote overall — much less in the south. And note that this really isn’t about Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Earlier today, I saw a list of polls pairing Clinton vs Trump over the last year. The polls really haven’t changed that much. There are blips when Trump said something outrageous or when the media made a big deal out of any number of Clinton non-scandals. But it’s been pretty consistent.

In the end, Hillary Clinton will do about as well as any other Democrat would have. And as amazing as it may seem, Trump will do about as well as any other Republican. Because when Trump manages to even win southern white females, you know it isn’t about him. They’re just voting their tribe — like most people.

Still: math is fun!