Global Warming and Polar Bear Attacks

Polar Bear Before AttackCastañeda-Mendez was walking barefoot, halfway across the stream, when Dyer saw something lumbering toward them. “Polar bear!” he shouted. “Get back here! Get back here!” Chase yelled at her husband. “We have a bear!”

The animal was about 150 yards away and walking toward them. Castañeda-Mendez tromped back through the water and the group clustered together on the side of the stream, following the protocol Lagacè had rehearsed with them: Stand together. Make yourself seem big. Make loud noises, especially metal on metal, like the banging of poles.

The bear was larger and had a fuller coat than the female they had seen that morning. Slowly it walked toward them, nose in the air and tongue sticking out, apparently trying to assess the two-legged creatures it had stumbled upon. Despite the group’s banging and shouting, the bear kept coming. While Castañeda-Mendez fired away with his camera, Gross pulled out his flare gun. “I’m gonna shoot,” he told Chase when the bear was within fifty yards. “I think that’s a good idea,” she replied calmly.

The flare shot forward with a flash of light, but the bear kept advancing. It wasn’t until the shell landed in front of the animal, causing a second burst, that the bear turned and took off in a dead run. The group cheered, clapped, and banged their poles together, celebrating their victory. But the bear didn’t go far. It settled on a ledge about 300 yards from their camp and lay there quietly, watching them.

—Sabrina Shankman
In the Jaws of Climate Change (You should read the whole thing!)

Voting for Our Best Interests

Vote Here TodayOver at Hullabaloo this morning, Tom Sullivan wrote, Thank You for Not Voting Your Best Interests. He made a excellent and important point, but I think there is quite a bit more to it. His primary argument is that we liberals should stop saying that the working class “vote against their best interests.” He noted that this is an Ayn Randian, social Darwinian framing of voting. He asked, “Is that who we are? Is that the kind of country we want? Does that reflect our values?”

I have to admit to being guilty of occasionally using this language. And it has long bothered me that it goes against what I believe. I actually have a certain fondness for the fact that many Christians vote against their best economic interests in the name of what they think is their religious faith. That’s noble. And I often vote against my own best interests. But the statement doesn’t mean we are talking about the best interests of the working class — as in low skilled workers as opposed to its literal meaning of roughly 99% of the population that makes most of its money for work.

If we are talking about non-college educated whites, then he is most definitely right that “You’re voting against your best interests” is just a dog whistle for, “You’re a stupid hick.” But let’s remember: in general, it is not the poor who are voting for the Republicans. I discussed this in, It’s the Poor, Stupid. Poor voters in every state in the deep south voted for Kerry in 2004. The middle income voters are more inclined toward the Republicans and upper income voters go with the Republicans everywhere but California, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

The issue is that the poorer voters tend not to vote at all — not that they vote against their interests. But I’ve always been careful not to blame them for this. There are a few things going on. The first is that our country goes out of its way to make voting hard. For example: why is it is necessary to register to vote? We all have social security numbers. Why isn’t that enough? Then, when you move, you must register again. And who moves a lot? The poor. But the problem is far deeper than that. Consider a working class family where both parents work — perhaps even multiple jobs. They are paid by the hour. They have children they must care for. People in that situation have to be very dedicated to vote. Compare that to a family where just the man works at a salaried job where his boss will be just fine that he comes in an hour late because, “The line to vote was terrible!” (Of course, the line to vote will not be terrible — that is reserved for where the poor vote.)

When it comes to what I care most about — economics — almost everyone who votes for the Republicans is voting against their best interests. The only people who are not are those people who get special benefits from the Republican Party. Otherwise, everyone does better under the Democrats — and that most definitely includes the owning class. And why do they vote against their own best interests? Well, Sullivan nails that:

[P]eople don’t vote their interests. They vote their identities. This is standard [George] Lakoff stuff. People vote for candidates they believe share their social views, not necessarily their economics. People vote for candidates they feel they can trust. People wanted to have a beer with recovering alcoholic, George W Bush, for godssakes.

This is why Wall Street turned against Obama in such a big way. He’s surrounded himself with Wall Street hacks. He’s done everything that Wall Street could hope for. But they hate him for one reason: he called them fat cats. Those people probably would have done worse under a McCain administration, but at least he would have played along and never countered their self-images as the brilliant and beneficent Masters of the Universe that they see themselves as.

So the question really is why so many people — rich people mostly — vote against the best interests of the country. There are lots of reasons for this. The one that seems primary to me is the Ayn Rand and Milton Friedman idea that making as much money as possible is doing what is in the best interests of your country. As a result, the rich have come to think that just by being rich they are being patriotic. And the rest of the nation has largely gone along with it, even though it really doesn’t have much of a historical legacy. In the past, the rich at least gave lip service to noblesse oblige; now they act like gods — deserving of both their privilege and worship.

We as liberals do need to be careful about the language we use. The “own interests” lament does sound like we are calling for selfishness. But I think it is deeper than this. A more accurate question would be, “We do they vote against our best interests?” But it is not a question for the lower classes. It is a question for the upper classes. And we shouldn’t be asking ourselves the question. We should be asking them, “Why do you vote against our shared interests?” I don’t think they have an answer for that.

Cons Complain About Con Healthcare Reform

Jonathan ChaitJonathan Chait is back, which is good news because I still look forward to reading him every day. And his first article of the new year is a good one, Harvard, Obamacare, and the Conservative Information Bubble. What it is about is the conservatives’ newest claim that Obamacare is failing. This time it refers to a Robert Pear article in The New York Times, Harvard Ideas on Health Care Hit Home, Hard. I believe the original title was, “Healthcare fixes backed by Harvard’s experts now roil its faculty.” Apparently, they decided that maybe that was too provocative a title.

The main “fix” that is roiling the Harvard faculty is the idea that healthcare consumers should have “skin in the game.” This means higher co-pays and deductibles. It is thought that if people have to pay $25 to see the doctor, they will only go to the doctor when they really need to. I’ve always found this a questionable contention because (1) most people avoid going to the doctor just because it is time consuming and painful; and (2) this is throwing a lot of pressure on the consumer to know when is the “right” time to go to the doctor. But maybe it works.

In the past, Harvard has provided 100% coverage of faculty. (I’m sure that Harvard is like most colleges in using a lot of adjunct faculty who are paid almost nothing and given no benefits — but that’s another issue.) Now the college is paying only 90% and the faculty are not pleased. Conservatives have pounced. Chait quoted Red State, “One imagines how all these pampered academics would feel if they were forced to use a silver (70% covered) Obamacare plan.” I love that: “pampered academics”; these intellectual elites who fly coach to conferences are so pampered but the financial elites in their private jets and the gated mansions are not pampered. Regardless, it is clearly a reduction in compensation, even if a fairly minor one.

But as Chait noted, conservatives have no cause to feel good about this development. This idea of having “skin in the game” is their own conservative idea. In fact, about the only healthcare reform idea that conservatives have that is not totally ridiculous is their health savings accounts. This is the idea that people put tax-free money in a savings account that they use for medical expenses. This goes along with some catastrophic insurance policy — with maybe a $10,000 (Or more!) deductible. Since the money in the savings account is yours if you don’t use it, you have a real incentive to chew Advil all year long and not have the doctor look at that pain in your lower right abdomen. Incentives!

That’s all that is going on at Harvard. The only thing that conservatives should complain about is that the school is paying too much of the faculty’s healthcare costs. Of course, this is just the conservative way. Anything that people don’t like in Obamacare proves that it is hopeless and must be repealed. And this is even true when what people don’t like is their conservative policy idea, “You hate having to pay 30% of your healthcare costs, but you are going to love it when you have to pay 70%!”

It is important to remember where conservatives are in terms of knowledge about Obamacare. The only information that they get is negative. This is why they truly believe that the law is on the verge of collapse. It is very much like conservatives in the 2012 election where they were just sure that they were going to win. Contrast that with liberals during the 2014 election who might have grasped on to any hopeful bit of evidence, but who were completely prepared for the slaughter that came last November.

There are lots of things to not like about Obamacare. Steven Brill is out with a new book that highlights many of the problems, America’s Bitter Pill. But those problems are the conservative aspects of the law. And it is embarrassing for conservatives to throw rocks at the law while showing a complete lack of knowledge about their own “plans.”

The “Police Work Is Dangerous” Myth

Military PoliceOptional musical accompaniment, Isn’t It Romantic:

Isn’t it pathetic?
Journalistic hacks
Just following the herd!

That’s what I thought when I saw this at The New York Times last night, Two New York Police Officers Are Shot in the Bronx. It came in my email and that’s why I think it is pathetic. Obviously, this is a real news story. But The Times on average sends me maybe two notices per day. So this is Big News™ because, “Cops’ lives matter!” Of course, no one ever questioned that the lives of police officers mattered.

This is all a response to the murders of Officers Wenjian Liu and Rafael Ramos. After that, apparently, the senseless shooting of kids by police officers don’t matter. As Ta-Nehisi Coates wrote yesterday, “If the public appetite for police reform can be soured by the mad acts of a man living on the edge of society, then the appetite was probably never really there to begin with.” The recent rallying around the police is business as usual — we’ve been seeing it for years and it is in no sense any different from the tired demands for conformity found in, “Support the troops!”

But this recent bit of voluntary government propaganda is really a bit too much. The two officers — Aliro Pellerano and Andrew Dossi — were not killed. That’s good news, even though they were seriously injured. Like I said: this is a perfectly acceptable news story, but not one that the paper of record should be sending out to its email subscribers. The headline implies that this was another ambush attack as had happened to Liu and Ramos. But it wasn’t. The officers simply got into an altercation when approaching two men who were suspected of a robbery. Also: the suspects are Latinos.

What is particularly troubling about this is that it is pushing a false narrative. Police officers are not under assault. Police work has done nothing but become safer over the last twenty years. The facts are clear. Back in 2011, after a rash of shootings of police officers caused a similar outbreak of deceptive reporting, Radley Balko wrote, The “War on Cops” That Isn’t. And late last year, he followed it up with, Once Again: Police Work Is NOT Getting More Dangerous. Just in terms of raw numbers, there were fewer police officers killed in 2013 than there had been since World War II. And that is with a population that is 2.25 times the size.

I don’t think the problem is primarily that the public is deceived about this. The problem is that police officers are deceived about this. It causes them to use excessive force because they live on a knife’s edge — constantly thinking that they are in danger. Another factoid from Balko’s work is that it is more dangerous to simply live in one of the 50 highest crime cities than it is to be a police officer. Yet no one ever says, “When a waitress in Oakland drops off her kids at school in the morning, she doesn’t know if she’ll ever see them again!” But this kind of nonsense is constantly thrown out about the police.

One thing I’ve focused on in my writing is that the police have become a bunch of pussies. They aren’t willing to subject themselves to even the slightest danger. For example, there is the 2003 case of a woman who was fatally shot by police offers because of her threatening gestures with a vegetable peeler. But I seem to be about the only person willing to call the police pussies. And this is because the police have convinced themselves and the nation that their jobs are so dangerous it makes sense for them to constantly be on guard so that occasionally overreaching is understandable.

It isn’t. Because police officers do not have terribly dangerous jobs. I mean, they aren’t cabbies — who are four times as likely to die on the job!

Update (6 January 2015 6:10 pm)

Unbelievable: Cop Wounded in Shootout Not Happy About de Blasio’s Visit.

Heinrich Schliemann

Heinrich SchliemannOn this day in 1822, the great archaeologist Heinrich Schliemann was born. He was one of the most important ever in the science. In particular, he was the first person to dig at Hissarlik, which later archaeologists were able to prove was the actual site of the Trojan War, which by the 19th century was thought to be pure myth.

His interest in archaeology started late. Early on he made his fortune as in the import and finance business. The one thing that links his business and archaeology careers is that he had an amazing facility with languages. By his death, he could conversant in over a dozen languages — including Greek, Russian, and Arabic. He retired in 1858, but didn’t start pursuing archaeology for another ten years — when he was pushing fifty years of age. At around this time, he divorced his wife — apparently because she wasn’t willing to travel with him. Then he advertised for a wife in a Greek newspaper and married Sophia Engastromenos, who was his assistant and constant companion to the end.

In his work, Schliemann unfortunately destroyed much of the site because of his belief that old sites had to be deep. He was, after all, self taught. But I’m not sure that the professional archaeologists would have done much better. Still, many people did encourage him to go slowly — advice he rejected. It may have also been a question of temperment. It turned out that seven main cities had been built on top of the site dating from about a thousand years before Troy. The whole story is amazing, and I highly recommend watching In Search of the Trojan War. Here is the first episode of it, which deals with Schliemann and the work that he did:

Happy birthday Heinrich Schliemann!

The Vicissitudes of Web Traffic

Comment TrollI was a little concerned after I wrote, More Libertarian Economic Hokum. Writing about libertarians tends to bring them out and I have to admit: they exhaust me. I’ve written about various aspects of libertarianism over the years, and they tend to attract very long winded comments that treat any particular article as though I’m claiming that it and it alone is the ultimate refutation of the ideology. I generally refer them to my tens of thousands of words written elsewhere and that tends to shut them up. That, I assume, is because despite the intellectual conceit of libertarians, as a group, they are extremely lazy intellectually.

This isn’t true of all libertarians. Certainly, Robert Nozick was brilliant. The problem is that it is extremely rare to run into a libertarian who has read him. Instead, they form a very facile kind of libertarianism based upon Ayn Rand and other quasi-philosophers. If it is based upon any idea at all, it is based upon the useless non-aggression principle. But usually, they are just conservatives who don’t feel comfortable with the naked hatred of conservative social positions. And above all, they are relatively wealthy and educated people who are convinced that their successes are due to their own brilliance and hard work.

So the comments are generally not insightful. And given that the article I had just written was dashed off without the kind of thorough linking that I prefer when discussing economics, I could imagine getting a lot of push back. Not that I couldn’t defend myself. The article I was discussing was typical pseudo-economic libertarian analysis. It is a lot like global warming denial articles: cherry picked references with very spotty coverage. As I noted in my article, in general, the guy didn’t even try to make a cogent argument about his supposed myths. It was just taken as a given that the claim was wrong and he threw in a couple of references to make it seem like he had countered it. It was a surprisingly sloppy bit of writing from a publication that does feature some decent content.

Thus, I was a little freaked out when I noticed shortly after posting the article that Google Analytics was going crazing. People were streaming in to read that article. I figured that some libertarian posted it on Twitter or Reddit or Facebook and I would be inundated with comments like, “You’re just saying we should all be slaves!” Or maybe they would take the high road, “You’re just a doodoo pants!” But no such comments came in. No comments came in at all. It is probably just that I noticed Google Analytics at the right time. It normally takes a couple hundred views before getting a comment. And when the material is technical, it is even worse. So I was relieved, although doubtless some libertarian will eventually drop by and shout at me about the article.

The reason I’ve been paying a bit more attention to Google Analytics is that I noticed a distinct decrease in website traffic over the holidays. I’m used to Frankly Curious getting steadily more popular. Each week gets more traffic than the week before. But suddenly, that wasn’t happening. I thought that maybe I had plateaued. There is also my constant fear that my work isn’t as good as it once was. But ever the optimist, I continued. And then on Friday — the first real day after the holidays — the traffic shot up. And it continued Saturday and Sunday and, I assume, today.

A more important aspect of traffic that has been changing the past few months is that I’m getting a smaller percentage of visitors from search engines. Instead, more people are just coming here directly — apparently to see what the freak is ranting about now. These visitors didn’t decrease much during the holidays. It was more the search engine traffic — most of it going to the archive.

None of this matters all that much, except in that it keeps me writing. But increased traffic does bring some annoyances. Infidel753 recently reported about a bulletin board attack on him, where the commenter wrote, “Dumbf**k Infidel753 encourages the mockery of religion; believes religion and rectitude must be eradicated.” Of course, Infidel753 is a well regarded blogger who’s been around forever. I doubt it bothers him and a comment that silly is hard to take seriously. But it still sucks to have idiots dump on you. And that’s even true when you are throwing bombs, as I did in the article earlier today.

More Libertarian Economic Hokum

Libertarian Party: Just Kidding, We're Republicans!While doing research about the decreasing dangers of police work, I came upon some good work by libertarians. Unfortunately, this also brought too much of the typical brain dead libertarian economic analysis. In particular, at The Freeman, I found an article by Corey Iacono, 5 Economic Myths That Just Won’t Die. It was apparently the cover story of the December issue. It’s an excellent example of conservative affirmative action. If only I could spout this kind of nonsense, I too could be published in a seemingly popular magazine.

A big part of the problem is that the myths are no such thing. No one, for example, goes around saying, “Capitalism isn’t economically superior to socialism.” There literally is no such thing as a pure capitalism or a pure socialism. The libertarians are the only ones who claim that there can exist some kind of perfect capitalism. And even they fall to pieces when you bring up tort law or almost any other practical matter. But even if we grant Mr Iacono his myth, he doesn’t counter it. He only argues that liberalizing socialist countries increases economic growth. That is not the same as showing that capitalism is economically superior to socialism. There is a balance and going too far either way makes things worse.

Typical of the article is its argument against, “Countries like Sweden and Denmark prove that high taxes don’t harm economic growth.” He avoids the subject altogether. He does mention one paper regarding the Danish economy that is not based upon data but on a non-standard economic model. Otherwise, his argument is that in a general sense lower taxation leads to higher economic growth. Again, no one really argues with this. The argument has been that taxes of the rich do not hurt the economy — in a recession at least — because they don’t spend most of their money and so it is just added to the piles of cash rushing around the economy hopelessly looking for places where it can be used. But such economic complexity is anathema in libertarian thought.

The article isn’t without some actual claims that are made, “The government ended child labor. In a free market, child labor would still exist.” But I hardly think it is a myth. He quoted an article by the Economic History Association that stated that child labor ended primarily due to improved incomes of working people from 1880 to 1940. The problem here is that incomes improved due to the rise of labor unions and various government activities. Given that the United States has been seeing little to no increase in real wages for the working classes over the last four decades, we ought to see a rise in child labor if it weren’t for laws. The same argument that Iacono made has been made for a century and a half for how the Civil War was unnecessary because the free market was just about to destroy slavery. In this case, Iacono is apparently fine with generations of children working in coal mines because the bright light of the libertarian utopia is only a few generations away!

His next myth was, “Free trade doesn’t lead to better economic outcomes in the real world.” Free trade is mostly a scam to keep rich countries rich and poor countries poor. There is no way that a banana republic becomes anything else if it can’t protect its infant industries from destruction by powerful foreign corporations. Let me outsource the rebuttal to Ha-Joon Chang’s excellent Bad Samaritans:

The poor growth record of neo-liberal globalization since the 1980s is particularly embarrassing. Accelerating growth — if necessary at the cost of increasing inequality and possibly some increase in poverty — was the proclaimed goal of neo-liberal reform. We have been repeatedly told that we first have to “create more wealth” before we can distribute it more widely and that neo-liberalism was the way to do that. As a result of neo-liberal policies, income inequality has increased in most countries as predicted, but growth has actually slowed down significantly.

But by far the worst of the “myths” was, “The idea that economic growth helps the poor is trickle-down economics — it doesn’t actually help them.” No one says that economic growth doesn’t help the poor. No one. But he doesn’t address this anyway. He actually goes on to argue in favor of trickle-down economics. He wants growth, which he claims that we get “through methods such as limiting the size of government and lowering barriers to international trade.” The size of the government is generally irrelevant, but it is unquestionably actively harmful in the middle of the worst economic period since the Great Depression. There is no “crowding out.” Corporations are already sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars because they don’t see any point in investing. And what possible barriers to international trade is he talking about? As I’ve discussed, our big new “free” trade agreements are more about making countries less democratic and making it easier for owners to collect their rents.

All of this is just the same old libertarian hokum. This isn’t economics; it is theology. It is worship of the free market and the idea that any interference with it will make it angry and turn against us. Economics started as a part of moral philosophy. But amongst libertarians, it has lost all its moral context. It is no longer about the best way to facilitate the sharing of resources. It is about feeding an ideology that can never fail and only be failed. Unfortunately, Corey Iacono isn’t even a priest in the cult of the free market; he’s just one of the true believers sitting in the pews.

Afterword

Iacono wrote a followup article, 5 More Economic Myths That Just Won’t Die. It is an improvement in that it actually contains a widely believed claim that is, in fact, false, “Immigrants take American jobs and reduce American wages.” But three of the remain four myths are all the same: government can’t create jobs. It’s pathetic. But it has 464 shares, because there are scads of people out there who just can’t get enough hokum when it tells them what they want to hear.

Conservatives Don’t Want to Reform Foreign Policy

Reform ConservativeThere is a laugh-out-loud funny article by Colin Dueck and Roger Zakheim at The Wall Street Journal this morning, Toward a Reform-Conservative Foreign Policy. These “reform conservatives on national-security issues” want to change the state of our foreign policy. And they want to do it by — Wait for it! — doing exactly what conservatives have always wanted to do. I have major problems with the reform conservatives generally — all they are willing to do is nibble around the edges because they cannot be seen as taking a big bite out of conservative ideology. But at least they do nibble. Dueck and Zakheim don’t even do that.

The argument in the article consists of two points. First, it complains about Obama’s foreign policy. This isn’t serious at all. It just recycles the same tired claims of the conservatives that Obama looks week (generally because he doesn’t act like an authoritarian, but really just because he isn’t a Republican). The second part of the argument is a vague disclaimer that they aren’t like Bush in 2003. And this leads up to their great “reform” conclusion: we need to spend more money on the military.

It is curious that conservatives constantly call for government to be more efficient — except when it comes to the military. Education can be infinitely more efficient. One teacher can manage a thousand students! But the military couldn’t possibly do more with less! One less bomber would destroy our military or at least send the message to the evildoers that it is time to strike! It’s sad but tells you pretty much everything you need to know about the priorities of conservatives. No wonder they hold authoritarians like Putin in such high regard.

Ed Kilgore summed up what they are pushing, The Long-Awaited Reformicon Foreign Policy Initiative: Throw Money at the Pentagon:

So it seems the big Reformicon foreign policy principle is that it is again time to throw money at the Pentagon as a symbolic gesture of national “strength.” This, of course, has big and baleful consequences for Reformicon domestic policy, which on occasion requires some new federal spending. But frankly, honest fiscal math has not been a conservative priority since about 1981.

But it is more than that. The military cuts that we have seen came from the Sequester. The Republicans allowed cuts to military spending and Democrats allowed cuts to social spending. What these guys are really saying is that now that the deal is made, they want to keep the half of it that they like and jettison the half they don’t like. They even mention in the article how important cutting the budget is, “It is indeed imperative to reduce the national debt, but defense spending has already taken more than its share of cuts since Obama took office…” So the idea of just getting rid of the Sequester is off the table. As usual with conservatives, they want everything and are not willing to give anything in return.

They also mention Rand Paul as the leader of the faction of the party that wants to reduce the military. This is critical to their argument. By not being Rand Paul on the left and Bush in 2003 on the right, they are in the “reasonable” center. But it isn’t true. Rand Paul has shown himself to be very slippery when it comes to the military. By the time he gets the presidential nomination, he will be as much a hawk as any of them. And they provide an apologia for Bush in 2003, by noting the special circumstances. But there is nothing that they are proposing that is any different from Bush in 2003, except that they wouldn’t go to war with Saddam Hussein because he’s dead.

But maybe I’m wrong about these guys. In a way, they are right smack in the middle of the reform conservative movement. No one in that movement wants to change anything. They just want to rebrand the Republican Party. And that’s what their article is: a bunch of gobbledygook designed to look like they are dealing with the constant failures of their ideology, without actually doing it. Welcome to the party boys, the money is fine!

Two Myths About ISIS

Raed JarrarThere are so many myths that have been thrown around in the last few weeks. One of them is, as you mentioned, that there is this one bad guy that we are stepping in with our good allies to save the day and get rid of. And this is not an accurate description of the situation in Iraq or in Syria. Although ISIS — this terrorist group — has been committing gross violations of human rights and other atrocities, other groups in Iraq — the ones who we call our allies — have been also committing similar atrocities. Actually, a couple of days ago, one of our allies beheaded Sunni militants. We didn’t see much about that in US media. A few weeks ago there was a massacre committed by one of the Shiite militias backed by the Iraqi government. This massacre was documented by Human Rights Watch and other international organizations. We didn’t seem to hear about that either. We never hear about violations and war crimes committed by the Iraqi government itself — or by other ethnic and sectarian militias in Iraq. That is one part of the problem: that there is media focus on the crimes of one faction in Iraq without focusing on other factions. I don’t think that the crimes committed by ISIS in any way are unique. They are bloody, but they are similar to other crimes committed by others in Iraq — especially those who we are funding with our taxpayers’ money.

The other part that is a myth is that we can defeat ISIS through military action. And that is, I think, one of the byproducts of our foreign policy, which brings up the question that you mentioned, “We have to act!” We either don’t act at all or we have to act by dropping bombs. It doesn’t seem like there are any shades of grey between not acting and dropping bombs on other nations. And this myth that we can bomb Iraq into stability and we can bomb Iraq into moderation — that we can destroy extremism by throwing more bombs on Iraq — there is no evidence that this can happen! The US has tried that many times in the past. Actually, the US tried it while the US had more than a hundred thousand troops on the ground in Iraq. There was a military engagement with ISIS. It used to be called ISI at the time: the Islamic State in Iraq. And obviously, the group was not defeated. I think this is what many people in the US and around the world have been saying for a long time: we can’t defeat extremism by dropping more bombs. Actually, dropping more bombs, and having US military intervention fuels extremism.

—Raed Jarrar, American Friends Service Committee
Interview on CounterSpin

Public Intellectual Umberto Eco

Umberto EcoThe great writer and philosopher Umberto Eco is 83 years old today. Last year, when I marked his birthday, I talked about his novel, The Name of the Rose. And I said then what I will say now: it is one of the best novels I’ve ever read. It is rare that I think a novel is too short. I never wanted it to stop. If you have not read it, I highly recommend it. And if you’ve seen the film of the same name, don’t let that stop you. It is fun enough, I suppose. And it is probably as good a rendering of the book as could be had on the screen. But the book is something else completely.

But it is probably best to think of Eco as a public intellectual — the sort of person that the United States has largely turned against. I highly recommend his essays. A year and a half ago, I quoted from his essay “Censorship and Silence” in his book, Inventing the Enemy. It is more true than ever: the way that we censor today is not by forbidding the truth but by drowning it out with nonsense. Fox News is the king of this, but more important, it is true of the media establishment writ large. Here is Umberto Eco on the issue:

Noise becomes a cover. I would say that the ideology of the censorship through noise can be expressed, with apologies to Wittgenstein, by saying, “Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must talk a great deal.” The flagship TG1 news program on Italian state television, for example, is a master of this technique, full of news items about calves born with two heads and bags snatched by petty thieves — in other words, the sort of minor stories papers used to put low on an inside page — which now serve to fill up three-quarters of an hour of information, to ensure we don’t notice other news stories they ought to have covered have not been covered. Several months ago, the press controlled by Berlusconi, in order to undermine the authority of a magistrate who criticized the premier, followed him for days, reporting that he sat smoking on a bench, went to the barber, and wore turquoise socks. To make a noise, you don’t have to invent stories. All you have to do is report a story that is real but irrelevant, yet creates a hint of suspicion by the simple fact that it has been reported. It is true and irrelevant that the magistrate wears turquoise socks, but the fact it has been reported creates a suggestion of something not quite confessed, leaving a mark, an impression. Nothing is more difficult to dispose of than an irrelevant but true story.

Happy birthday Umberto Eco!


See also: The Art of the Opening.

Some Disturbing Media Numbers for 2014

Hannah Groch-BegleyHannah Groch-Begley put together some interesting statistics from Media Matters, The Media in 2014 by the Numbers. None of it is shocking, but it is all disturbing.

She started the article with what is perhaps the most surprising statistic: none of the top editors at the ten biggest newspapers are women. That statistic wouldn’t be surprising if we were talking about almost any other industry. But women are extremely well represented in writing. I have always taken this to indicate that women are naturally better writers. That’s certainly been my experience. I had to work very hard to write as well as most of my female friends who didn’t ever work on it. Regardless, if you look at technical writers, there are more women than men. On the other hand, in Hollywood, where I assume the money is better and the prestige is more, there are more men. Regardless, I would think the new business would do better. But of course not! Silly me to be the least bit optimistic.

There is a pair of statistics that I’ve seen before that I’m not sure is as meaningful as it seems:

Ebola Coverage 2014 - Media Matters

The truth of the matter is that the Ebola freak out seems to have just corresponded to the interests of the Republican Party. And I doubt it mattered anyway. I don’t think that Democratic voters stayed home because they felt that the administration was doing a bad job with it. What I think is a bigger issue is that if a Republican had been in the White House, Ebola would have received perhaps a quarter of the coverage. Fox News would have covered it in a completely reasonable way and the other news stations would have followed suit. In fact, there would have been a huge backlash against anyone who didn’t. They would have rightly been criticized for fomenting fear. But when a Democrat is in the White House, nothing is off the table. We should be very concerned that the mainstream media allow the Overton Window to be set by conservative media.

A couple of statistics that really struck me had to do with experts. First, only 3% of economic segments in the first half of 2014 featured an economist. Now, when you consider the state of the economics profession, maybe that isn’t so bad. I suspect that a good deal of that 3% was made up with Arthur Laffer. Just the same, it shows the media really aren’t interested in expertise — they figure economics is simple and everyone has valid opinions on it. They just want some politician on the two arbitrary “sides” of the issue and that’s that.

The other statistic is of much greater concern: on education segments during 2014, only 9% included educators. As with the economist, the media seem to think that teaching is simple. Why talk to teachers about education? After all, everybody knows that teachers just care about working as little as possible and taking home those big ol’ pay checks! Am I right?! But unlike economists who are to a large extent incompetent apologists for the power elite, teachers actually do know something about education. But the power elite would prefer to leave them out of the conversation. And the mainstream media are more than willing to oblige.

There are are lot more factoids in the article. The ones that I mentioned are just the ones that stood out to me. But there is much of interest. I suspect that next year, Media Matters will be able to write the same article with a minimum of editing.

Comets and the Thrill of Freezing in the Dark

Terry LovejoyAs I get older, I find that my interests turn more and more to “fun” things like astronomy. When I was younger, I wasn’t as interested in it. But being submerged in politics all the time, it’s very relaxing to read about stuff where facts actually matter. Indeed, my interest has been so much increased that I’m doing some work on a pulsar model I published (pdf) 25 years ago. I think I made some errors and I have an idea for improving the overall model. (For the record, I always think I made some errors in everything I’ve published.) Regardless, I’m not doing it for any reason other than that it is fun.

Speaking of people doing astronomy just for fun, meet Terry Lovejoy. He is part of a long line of great amateur astronomers who have made important contributions to the science. In fact, it often seems to me that we ought to hold amateur endeavors in higher regard than professional ones. I mean, amateurs aren’t even being paid. But it does highlight the great lie of economics that everything is about financial incentives. Oh, there the politics come back in! Let’s get back to the pure joy of scientific discovery.

Last August, Lovejoy discovered his fifth comet: C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy). I find comets fascinating. Their likely importance in the delivery of water and even organic matter to the planets makes my mind marvel. At the same time, the idea that one of these buggers could slam into the earth and kill us all has a wonderful horror movie appeal. And I’m very pleased that people like Lovejoy are out there discovering comets when they are barely visible at magnitude 15. Polaris has a magnitude of 2, and nothing with a magnitude of 7 or more is visible with the naked eye. At its brightest, C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy) will have a magnitude between 4 and 5. That will be in two weeks.

On 7 January, the comet will make its closest approach to us — about 40 million miles away. But it won’t be at its brightest then. It will be brighter when it gets closer to the sun. But right now, you ought to be able to see it — just barely. Of course, you won’t be able to see it where I live. My neighborhood is swimming in light. It really is an abomination. But I’m going to take a long walk tonight and see if I can get far enough away to see it with some binoculars.

Finding it should not be hard. It is swinging by Orion. Right now it is at just below and to the right of his right foot. Here’s a star chart from Sky and Telescope:

C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy) Path - Sky and Telescope

But I should warn you: going out to see a comet is like going to see a rock concert — better in theory than in practice. Watching a DVD of a concert is generally much more fun with far better sound and not standing on a concrete floor being trampled by people pretending that they know the song based on the first three notes. I’ve seen a few comets in my day, including the stupendously disappointing 1986 appearance of Halley’s Comet. My main memory of all comet sightings is that of being cold.

Be that as it may, it is important to suffer the discomfort and disappointment of great events. And the chance to see C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy) is more than a once-in-a-lifetime experience. It is a once in a hundred lifetimes experience, since this comet doesn’t visit very often — just once every ten thousand years or so. So be a good neighbor: run outside, look up at Orion, and wave hello to C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy). That way, when your grandchildren ask you what it was like to see the comet, you can say, “All I remember is that I was cold.”

Or you could cheat and watch this video from 29 December:

But it isn’t the same. I’m not even chilly.