Everyone here in California was so happy in December. The rain was so intense that many parts of the state were flooding. We got enough rain that we were up to expectation for the end of January. But I was still worried: what if it stopped raining. Well, it stopped raining. We are now in the second half of January and we’ve gotten less than a tenth an inch of ran thus far this month. We are coming off an unprecedented drought. We need more than “normal” rainfall and we aren’t even getting that. And the weather for the rest of the month looks like the weather thus far this month: nothing.
To me, global warming has always been about rain. A warmer world means more rainfall. But sadly, all the models and historical data indicate that a hotter world leads to more useless rainfall — dropped over the oceans. So the California drought has been a constant reminder of global warming. I don’t see the drought as an unfortunate anomaly; I see it as the new normal, and that’s why I see California very likely being a ghost state in a century — or maybe less — maybe a lot less.
So it didn’t really add much to my understanding to read this morning, It’s Official: 2014 Was the Hottest Year in Recorded History. And from a scientific standpoint, it doesn’t mean anything. One year doesn’t really matter. And this, of course, is what the global warming denialists will say. Of course, they would take a cold year as confirmation that there is nothing to global warming. But what are the odds of them getting that? Instead, they use a cold winter as justifying their opinions. But really, what can you say about this:
That graph is terrifying! But it is also comical. How can it be that half the nation thinks that this is nothing? That this is just a delusion of Al Gore? That the billions of dollars made every year by the oil companies makes them honest brokers of the truth while the crappy middle class jobs of environmental activists make them biased? This is madness. And it has been clear for 25 years. But in response, we do what we always do: nothing. The truth is that we have waited too long. And our ignorance and hubris will be punished. This is all about the fall of the American empire. All I can say is that Americans should enjoy the illusion of power now while we can because soon the cold light of reality will hit us.
Over the next half century, we will see the world’s food basket move from the United States to Canada and Siberia. I’m sure that the United States will fight against it with our drones and our financial weapons. But we are a dying empire. We will not be able to keep up. And it will serve us right for dragging our feet these decades. If the United States had led, we might have been able slow and even prevent the coming change. But not now. All we can do now is mitigate the damage.
The sad thing is that half the nation denies global warming, not because they benefit from it, but because a tiny number of people who they trust benefit from it. And in the end, those who have benefited from it will be able to use their money to move where the weather is nice and they will be able to afford the cost of food — whatever that may be. But the average conservative will suffer, just like the average liberal. This is just as it has always been: the rich thrive and the poor suffer. But there never was a time when the poor were so inclined to follow and even worship the rich.
Now if you will forgive me, it’s almost time for Shark Tank.
In general, I’ve avoided the issue of the acceptability of the New York Police officers turning their backs on Mayor Bill de Blasio at the two recent funerals. The main reason is simply that the act of the officers struck me as so incredibly immature that I couldn’t bring myself to discuss the deeper issue. It didn’t help that the issue itself is difficult. But I think I have to side with the police officers’ rights, even if I don’t side with the officers themselves, who I think are generally a bunch of whining pussies who should have gone into cosmetology rather than police work.
I’ve been wondering why it is that the New Atheist movement has had such a problem with sexism. I’m not talking about any of the alleged sexual misconduct here. I’m interested in why men in the movement are so often anti-feminist. The usual answer is that it is just a function of its origins: that the groups that make up the movement have traditionally been overwhelmingly male. While that’s certainly true and an important aspect of the problem, I think that there is a philosophical basis for the sexism in the movement. And it rather gets to the heart of what’s wrong with the New Atheists generally.
The most common statement I hear from people in the New Atheist community is, “I only believe in things that I have evidence for!” But that isn’t what they mean — based upon how they act. What they mean to say is that they only believe in things that science backs them up on. But they rarely understand the science itself. They might know the basics of evolution theory and climate change, but mostly, their opinions are a leap of faith: they have decided to trust the scientific establishment.
A common misconception is that polarization goes hand-in-hand with lobbying and special interests. On the contrary, corporations and industry groups typically pursue bipartisan strategies. In fact, contributions from industry PACs, corporate executives, and lobbyists flow more freely to the ideological center than to the ideological extremes. For better or worse, lobbyists and interest groups seek to build coalitions, and this often requires engaging the lawmakers most likely to be pivotal.
On this day in 1933, the great writer