Unskewed Polls Reinvented

Nate Silver tweeted this morning that we should not give Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls any of the attention he so clearly craves. But this is like crack—it’s hard to resist. Chambers has started a new website, Barack O’Fraudo. On it, he offers up the following graph (thanks for Digby):

This is ridiculous, of course. But I still have a question, “Where did the other 73 votes go?” You may remember Unskewed Polls’ second to last election prediction (They put out a last-minute face-saving prediction that weren’t based upon new poll results.):

Unskewed Polls Projection of Presidential Race 2012

So if Obama stole those states, giving Romney 286 electoral votes, what happened to the 73 votes that would have brought Romney up to 359 votes? It just doesn’t make sense. But then it isn’t suppose to. I think that Chambers is just using his celebrity to make money off gullible conservatives—just like Fox News.

Republicans Waiting for Superman

SupermanLook! Out in the right wing echo chamber! It’s a tax cut proposal?! It’s a birth control ban?! No! It’s another appeal to conservatives to seem reasonable without changing a God damned thing!

Yes, the “let’s all speak nicely about Latinos”: argument from a fantasy land far away, come to reality hoping to obfuscate, distract, and deceive the American people.

Katrina Trinko over at National Review writes, Huntsman’s Problem Wasn’t Just That He Was Perceived as a Moderate. That title gives you the wrong impression, however. Really what’s she’s saying is that Huntsman’s policies were mostly to the right of Romney. The problem was that he just seemed too damned reasonable!

Trinko goes on to note that Huntsman didn’t run a good campaign, but this is a minor complaint. He could easily run a stellar campaign next time. After all, if he had just stayed in the race, at some point, like all the others, he would have surged ahead in the polls. And given that he actually was a real politician, he might have stayed there.

What Trinko seems to be offering is the idea that if Republicans can just hold their noses and vote for a candidate who doesn’t pander to their vile ideal, they might get a really conservative candidate who can win. This all comes down to the argument conservatives have been making since the election: it is the style rather than the substance of their policies that are scaring minority voters away. But no: it’s really is the substance.

I’m not one of those who think that the Democrats are home free now. Republicans will continue to win low-turnout elections. But for the majority of voters, their ideas are toxic. And it doesn’t matter how much they dress up these ideas. Even in a Superman cape, they just won’t fly.

John Metz: Idiot and Fucktard

Fucktard John Metz of Denny'sMatt Yglesias has been writing a bit about about these business owners who are whining that the ACA (Obamacare) is just going to destroy their businesses. In particular, he highlighted John Metz, owner of more than 30 Denny’s restaurant franchises, he said he was going to add a 5% “Obamacare surcharge” on all customer bills. Because he’s such a charming motherfucker, he added that the customers could take the surcharge out of the server tip, because after all: they’re “the primary beneficiary of Obamacare.”

These comments didn’t sit too well with the CEO of Denny’s. John Miller had a private meeting with Metz and afterward said that he was “disappointed” in Metz. Yesterday, Metz released a statement that he regretted his remarks. There is a proximate reason for Miller’s swift action, of course: people were talking boycott and were generally pissed off at Denny’s. But I think there’s more to this. So does Yglesias.

Matt Yglesias puts it this way:

But my strong suspicion is that the CEO is right about this and that’s actually a terrible way to market a 5 percent price increase. The basic business proposition at any restaurant is the idea that we’re giving you a dining experience that’s more valuable to you than the money we’re asking for. It’s a good deal, come eat our tasty food. Whining about the fact that your servers now have health insurance is neither here nor there in terms of the value proposition on offer, and is only going to serve to alienate people by making you look like an asshole.

I agree with all of this, but I don’t think this is the main issue—or at least this isn’t the way that I would put it. This is all about demographics. If everyone in this country voted, Democrats could win every election by a landslide. Everyone doesn’t vote, of course, so Republicans do okay. But everyone does go out to eat from time to time. What’s more, the people who go out to Denny’s tend toward the poor. These are people who are going to be most hostile to a partisan Republican stunt like blaming part of the cost of the mean on President Obama.

Yglesias is correct, that everything that Metz said is likely to offend everyone—even Republicans. But had he said nothing and just added the surcharge, it might have tickled the 30% of his clientele who are Republican. But the 70% Democrats would find it offensive and perhaps choose another of the similar low-cost dining choices.

But I’m still planning to boycott all Denny’s in Florida just in case the money might go to this fucktard John Metz.

Topless Car Wash Crack Down

Topless Car WashDerrick Belcher claims to be a libertarian. If I could, I would get rid of the word “libertarian” because it is just a meaningless word that conservatives use. Sure, there are libertarians who hate the Republican Party as much or more than they hate the Democratic Party. But such people are very rare and with notable exceptions, hidden. So it is better to think of Derrick Belcher as a conservative and not the “absolute Libertarian” he calls himself.

He lives in Alabama and, like so many other conservative loons, he wants to secede from the union. The reason I know he is just another conservative is what he says about secession, “I don’t think any one state can stand alone. But if we’ve got 20 of them, then that starts to be something.” He means 20 red states, of course (more on that in a moment). “Libertarian” is not the first word that comes to mind when you think of Mississippi, Arkansas, and West Virginia. “Poor” might be the first word, given that they are the poorest states in the union.

But Belcher has an answer to that! “If you look at a map of the red states, we have all of the oil and we produce all of the food. We’re the ones that are carrying the rest of the nation.” You didn’t expect him to be right did you? Of the top six agricultural states, three of them are bright blue. And combined, they produce more food than the three red states. Of oil producing states, two of the top six are blue. Same for natural gas. And the same for coal. (Surprisingly, bright blue Illinois produces twice as much coal are red West Virginia.)

Of course, none of this really matters. Energy and food are transported. But I suspect that Belcher wants his new confederation of states to be truly independent. Good for him! And good luck to him, because it is a stupid idea as any economist will tell you.

What Mr. Belcher seems most upset about is that back in 2001, the government shut down his topless car wash.[1] He said, “The government ripped my business away, and now they’re choking America to death with rules and regulations.” According to the article:

“The American people are being mistreated by the federal government and there is absolutley no reason why we shouldn’t end this treatment from the federal government,” Belcher told WKRG. “And I guess there is a part of me that is angry because my government has mistreated me year after year after year and I am fed up with it and I know there are several other people in this state and all across the country that are fed up with it as well.”

This is typical of conservatives. It is very frustrating to talk to conservatives about the Middle East because in their minds, there are only two kinds of people there: Israelis and Not Israelis. This is also true if you include India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. And here Belcher doesn’t seem to understand that there are different levels of government. They must all be the feds! It wasn’t the federal government which shut down his “nasty wash”; it was the state of Alabama.

The truth is, if Derrick Belcher were a libertarian as he claims, he would be worried that big liberty-killing laws would be enacted by the social conservatives in an independent Alabama. But that is doubtless not what this is all about. He said he is angry. And when a conservative is angry, they don’t really care if, say, they attack the wrong country. So what the hell: the state passed a law he doesn’t like; separate from the nation!


[1] In many ways, I am a very naive man. When I read he had a “topless car wash” I thought it was a car wash for convertibles. All of my readers are hereby on notice that this is charming and not pathetic! (BTW: the image above is from a “topless” car wash where they the bottom part of your car for free but charged $5 to do the top. So there!)

Exekiel 4:9

Ezekiel 4:9Do you remember Jules in Pulp Fiction, when he’s talk to Big Brain Brett? “You read the Bible, Brett? Well there’s this passage I got memorized—sort of fits this occasion. Ezekiel four nine: take wheat and barley, beans and lentils, millet and spelt; put them in a storage jar and use them to make bread for yourself. You are to eat it during the 390 days you lie on your side.” Don’t remember it? Well, that’s because he didn’t say it. He quoted Ezekiel 25:17, although most of what Jules quotes if not actually in the Bible.

Why do I bring up Ezekiel 4:9? And why would someone lie on his side for 390 days? Frankly, I have no answer to the second question—it has something to do with surviving a siege. But the answer to the first is: bread. Andrea told me she came upon some bread in the grocery store from a company called Food For Life with a product line named “Ezekiel 4:9.” That got me interested.

I figured the company must either be Jewish or right-wing born again Christian. If the former, I was okay about it. If it was the latter, I figured it was some company trying to make a point, and I was not okay about it. Does that make me anti-Christian? No. I’m just as much against literalist Judaism; it’s just that one doesn’t see such nonsense very often in modern America.

So I went over to the Food For Life website, and I found that I was probably wrong. If I had to guess, I would say that they are hippy Christians. They’re all animal, yeast, and gluten free. They specialize in foods so good for you that you could eat marble and still be able to set your watch by your bowel movements.

They also offer a product line called “Genesis 1:29.” (I’ll let you look up that one!) So these people are pretty serious about this stuff. Then again, they aren’t that serious about it: they’ve trademarked both Bible verses. And they have a dove as part of their logo. So I’m sticking with the hippy label. Of course, this doesn’t mean these are defenders of the poor. I know a number of hippy business owners and they’re are still, you know, business owners.

I won’t be buying any Food For Life products, however. It isn’t because of their religious beliefs. I once tried to be healthy by eating only sprouted wheat and all of that. It almost killed me.

Afterword

Flies and a Very Good Pinot

House Fly Drenched in Water VaporI like to drink while I cook—generally a nice pinot noir like the 2011 Hahn Winery. But I’m not a big drinker, so I often end up leaving half a glass of wine undrank. Most of the time, this results in one or more house flies dead in the wine the next day. I’ve thought about this a lot and I have a hypothesis that I plan to test next summer when the flies come back.

According to Fruit Fly Traps (which deals with fruit flies, but I doubt it matters), flies like liquids like vinegar, apple cider, orange juice, and wine. Thus they land to drink it and drown because they are stupid. I am skeptical.

I think that flies are significantly less likely to die in orange juice than in wine. The alcohol in wine vaporizes at a significant rate. I think that while drinking the wine, the flies pass out from lack of oxygen and thus drown.

This is pure speculation. If anyone knows anything about this important scientific question, please let me know. Otherwise, when the flies return I will present my results.


The picture above is from the Daily Mail, “This close-up picture shows a house fly drenched in water vapour, which look like large globules of water under the intense magnification.” It is from an article A Little Too Close For Comfort? It has a number of really great close-up pictures of insects.