Jean-Luc Mélenchon rocks. From campaigns past, but the song is great:

I tend to think that Republicans are more evil than stupid. But sometimes I wonder. Take today: Republican operatives have leaked Obama’s initial offer to deal with the “austerity bomb” (which is a much more accurate term than “fiscal cliff”). That’s fine, but their reason for doing it is foolish. They think they can attack the president as not taking the negotiations seriously. No one other than Fox News is going to accept that narrative.

Instead, most people are reacting like Ezra Klein, who wrote this evening, Obama to GOP: I’m Done Negotiating With Myself. In fact, Klein even says that he agrees that the offer isn’t serious. But I don’t see this at all. Thus far, the only thing the GOP has said is that they wouldn’t accept increases in tax rates at all. And this is coming from the party that has no real leverage. If no deal is reached, taxes go up by $500 billion dollars per year—most of that on high income earners.

Not all liberals are happy. Robert Reich thinks that Obama has already given away too much. He thinks there should have been no signaling of a willingness to raise the top tax bracket to some level less than the Clinton rate and that cuts to Medicare should have been completely off the table. I agree with him on the first point. On the second, the administration claims that these savings will not come from reduced benefits, so I will go along with them.

Overall, I’m pleased that the offer looks as good as it does. (Even Digby seems moderately pleased, and these days that’s saying something!) As may others, I am glad to see that that the president is not pre-negotiating. What’s more, let’s not lose sight of the most important thing here: the Republicans screwed themselves. Over the last two years, they’ve been unwilling to make extremely lopsided deals with the president, thinking that he would not win re-election. Well, now that he’s won re-election, they should know what the situation is. Those earlier deals were insurance and they decided to go on without it. Those are the breaks.

But it is wonderful to watch the Republicans running around so obviously desperate and making total fools of themselves. They are reaping what they sowed. And it is soooo richly deserved.

I just watched Futurama, episode “Hell is Other Robots.” It has one bit that really made me laugh. After Bender finds religion, he takes the crew out to dinner. But he insists upon saying grace, stopping everyone from eating. I think this is something that religious people don’t see: just how narcissistic are their ostentatious displays of religiosity.

Anyway, Bender says, “To quote the prophet Jerematic, ‘one-zero-zero-zero-one-zero-one-zero-one-zero-one-zero-one…” And then there is a dissolve to apparently much later, “Zero-zero-one-zero-one-one-zero-zero-one-two. Amen.”

A little before the meal, Bender is baptized in “high viscosity baptismal oil.” In the background is a religious sign:

For the record, this is old fashioned BASIC. Nerd humor.

Paul Krugman wrote a blog post this morning, Varieties of Error. In it, he highlights two kinds of predictive failures: those that indicate the fundamental thinking (or “model”) is wrong and those that just show that predictions are predictions. Think of football, for example. The Texans is a much better team than the Chiefs. In general, the Texans will beat the Chiefs. But if the Texans commits a number of turnovers, the Chiefs will win. The prediction was wrong, but the basic idea is correct: the Texans is a better team than the Chiefs. On the other hand, if your model was that the Chiefs is better than the Texans, there is something wrong with the model. What’s more there is something wrong with you if, after 10 match-ups between the Texans and the Chiefs in which the Texans won 9 times, you still claim that the Chiefs is the superior team.

We see this a lot in politics and economics. Conservatives have been screaming for years that hyper-inflation is just around the corner. Every time someone writes a column about budget hysteria, there are always loads of comments reading, “But Greece!” We have explained for years why Greece is not the same as the United States. (We have our own currency!) I think that the United States could continue to not become Greece for another 100 years and this would still be a common conservative retort.

What I find fascinating is the divide between the certainty of liberals versus conservatives. This brings to mind Nate Silver. Even when his model was predicting a 90% likelihood of Obama winning, he was still cautious. He always pointed out that his model was basically just a poll aggregator and that the polls might be wrong. Contrast this to the conservative loons who were just certain that they were right.

For years, Krugman has been saying that we would not see inflation so long as the economy was depressed. But during that time, he has always added caveats. In particular, he’s noted that there may have been some kind of economic mechanism that he’s missing. Contrast this with, say, Niall Ferguson. For years, he would brook no doubt: inflation was on its way. (Eventually, he had to admit that he was wrong. Since then, he’s just become a general purpose conservative hack.)

This divide is not due to the humble characters of people like Nate Silver and Paul Krugman. As far as I can tell, both these men are as (rightly) filled with themselves as anyone. I think the divide comes from the acceptance of facts and the rejection of authority. The modern Republican Party is an authoritarian group. The truth is whatever their leaders say it is. Democrats still expect proof. And this gets to the heart of what it is to be a member of either group. Liberals could not live with themselves if they didn’t think that what they believed was in some fundamental sense true. Conservatives depend upon group identification. This is why Fox News exists: people want to be told that belonging to their group is right and true. Their position in the hierarchy is what matters.

As a result of this, we should not be surprised that conservatives continue to hold long discredited ideas. As long as the party accepts it, all is good. On the other hand, if the party suddenly believes something different, the members will change on a dime. This will eventually happen to the Republican Party on the issue of global warming. Of course, by then, it will be too late. In fact, it already is.

Afterword

I’m generalizing here a bit. !rtists and scientists are liberal. Those who aren’t tend to be libertarians, rather than the more vile forms of conservatism. It is hard to be a creative thinker when you feel obliged to groupthink.

I first really took notice of Robert Reich many years ago when he said he was no longer for a balanced federal budget. He had been Labor Secretary under President Clinton, and he had seen how it was to work with Republicans. The way he saw it (I think this was in 2003), what was the point of Democrats accepting cuts in programs they believed in for the sake of balancing the budget? Once the Republicans got into office, they would unbalance the budget with tax cuts for the rich and unnecessary wars. When I heard that, I knew I had found someone who could cut through all the bullshit that covers political reporting.

I would go further, however. As you probably haven’t heard (except maybe here), Obama has greatly cut the federal deficit over the last three years. And yet, what did we hear throughout the campaign with almost no push back: Obama has exploded the debt! And Republicans will always run on this kind of stuff. It doesn’t matter how much they have to distort what’s actually going on. It is like a lot of other issues. The Democrats will never get the NRA endorsement, regardless of how nutty pro-gun they become. So what is the point of pandering?

Yesterday, Matt Yglesias made pretty much the same argument about the desire for a “grand bargain.” He isn’t making a partisan argument (as are Reich and me). There can be no “grand bargain” because current legislatures cannot bind the hands of future legislatures:

This is serious stuff. All this talk of a “grand bargain” is hurting our country now and could be much worse later. But what I find most interesting is how no one in the mainstream call out the hypocrsy of the austerity crowd. Pete Peterson has long been for a “grand bargain” to “fix the debt.” Yet when a situation comes along that quickly gets the debt on a much firmer footing, he’s against it. Why? Because that’s not how he wants to do it.

Peterson and all the people like him are just conservatives. Like Paul Ryan, they want something other than they claim. In Peterson’s case, he clearly doesn’t like Social Security and Medicare. Yglesias discussed this earlier in a different article:

Now, all these people are trying to use the crisis that they had a large hand in creating to justify fixing the (actually minor) problem by enacting policies they want for other reasons. It’s too bad we can’t try these people for treason.

I think the way it works—and I think Romney’s comments were very telling in this regard—there are two differences in the mind of this class. First, they’re absolutely convinced that they’re not asking for special privileges for themselves. They’re convinced that it just so happens that their self-interest coincides perfectly with the collective interest. That’s where you get this idea of the “job creators.” The view is that to seek a low tax environment or less regulation, that’s not special pleading for yourself, it’s not transactional politics. It’s that this set of rules is the most conducive to economic growth for everybody. It will grow the pie. Now, it also happens to be an incredibly convenient way of thinking. If you’ve developed an ideology that what’s good for you personally also happens to be good for everyone else, that’s quite wonderful because there’s no moral tension.

—Chrystia Freeland, author of The Plutocrats
Interview with Ezra Klein

Alec MacGillis at The New Republic has now written about, Paul Ryan, Global Thinker? In the article, he alerts us to a new list from Foreign Policy, 100 Top Global Thinkers. Such exercises are always stupid. Earlier this year, I wrote about The Rolling Stone 100 Greatest Guitarists of All Time, Pathetic Rock Journalism at Rolling Stone. In that article, I was particularly upset that George Harrison was listed at number 11. But I have to give The Rolling Stone credit: George Harrison was, in fact, a guitarist. I don’t think that Paul Ryan qualifies as a global thinker.

The article starts by listing Ryan’s bona fides as a budget guy: cut Medicaid by a third—check; privatize Medicare—check; savage all remaining programs other than the military—check! According to Foreign Policy these are “bold” ideas that Ryan gradually got the Republican Party to embrace.

Wait, wait, wait! Just hold the fuck on there! Stop!

We haven’t even gotten to the foreign policy part of the argument and the magazine has already piled the bullshit so high I can’t see. What they fail to mention is that the first step in Ryan’s budget balancing plan is to cut income tax rates. So let’s look at this plan. It lowers taxes (especially on the rich) and cuts spending on programs for the poor and middle class. This is what Republicans always want. This is not a budget; this is a Republican wish list. So Foreign Policy magazine gets a very slow start by not understanding anything about Paul Ryan’s domestic agenda.

Half way through their argument, the editors finally get to Paul Ryan’s global thinking. They do this by lying, “In the 2012 presidential election, contender Mitt Romney didn’t just champion Ryan’s ideas—he tapped the 42-year-old libertarian-leaning lawmaker as his running mate, catapulting the debate over the size and scope of the U.S. government to the top of the political agenda.” This one isn’t even close. MacGillis responds, “Well, not exactly—Romney tapped Ryan and didn’t champion his ideas.”

But Foreign Policy isn’t done yet:

You see it, don’t you? Ryan gave a speech—at the RNC. And it was in front of a big debt clock! Q-E-Fucking-D!

There is even more though. And this is great because you can tell this was written before the election by someone who thought that Romney would win.

There are a couple of things here. First, the quote from Ryan’s “budget”: I’m sure this is what the Soviet leaders were saying as they watched their infrastructure crumble—”Mustn’t cut the military!” You would think that the editors of Foreign Policy would have noticed the parallels. Second, those last two sentences! I’m sure they originally read, “And now that Romney will be president, those ideas will lead the country going forward.” Instead, they “might” “very well” prove “prescient.” Three weasels in one short sentence! At least Foreign Policy has something it can be proud of.