Bipartisan Consensus Can Bite Me

Nothing Can Be DoneOn last night’s The Daily Show, Al Madrigal talked to Third Way, the folks who want to stop partisan gridlock. This brought to mind something that has especially been bugging me this last month and a half of election coverage: the fetishization of bipartisanship. I hear it from liberals and conservatives alike. Everybody loves bipartisanship! But I don’t.

There is a reason that Democrats and Republicans (under normal circumstances) don’t get together on policy: they disagree. I want my elected officials to fight for what I believe in. For example, I think that the poorer classes have paid more than enough these last three odd decades. I think the “grand bargain” should be the rich paying higher taxes and the rich feeling good that we don’t raise their taxes back up to 91%. That’s my grand bargain. I don’t think that the rich giving up what Digby calls their tip money in exchange for raising the retirement age to 70 is any kind of “grand bargain.” I don’t want compromise or “bipartisan consensus” on this matter.

Of course, there is another matter here. For the last four years (and longer to a lesser extent), Republicans have tried to block policy when they were given exactly what they had always wanted. We saw this in the debt ceiling debate (How you feeling about that now guys?) and with healthcare reform. In this case, something really should be done. But this is not about the two sides coming together. The Democrats have come toward the Republicans time and time and time again. And the Republicans have moved further away time and time and time again. Calls for bipartisan consensus just obscure this fact.

As we see in Al Madrigal’s segment, it is often worse when legislatures get things done than when they are stuck in gridlock. And everyone knows this when it is a fact. It is only in airy theory that bipartisan consensus sounds so good. Who’s up for a good ol’ repeal of Rode v. Wade?

Afterword

Just for the record, I currently think it would be good to create two more marginal tax rates. For the rate above $250k up to $500k: 40%. For $500k up to $1m: 45%. And for income over $1 million: %50. And as usual, bring the Social Security tax cap way up: $250k or higher. We would have surpluses as far as the eye can see.

Don’t Trust Elliott Abrams on Israel

Palestinian medicsI understand that it must suck to be Israel. That’s a hell of a place to be Jewish. Of course, at this point, I think at least a large part of the area’s hatred of Israel comes from the country being an asshole and a bully. But that’s understandable. If I lived there, I’d have to be properly medicated—high doses of Valium. Otherwise, I’d be basket case.

But I really don’t understand the last two days. Egypt brokered a ceasefire two days ago. Everything seemed to be going well. And then Israel launched an attack that killed more Palestinians in Gaza than all the Israelis killed by projectiles from Gaza in the past three years. And what coverage are we getting about the situation here in the United States?

Most of it could be taken right from Elliott Abrams at the Council on Foreign Relations, Why Did Hamas Provoke a Conflict?

There is a conflict now between Israel and Hamas because Hamas insisted on starting one. After relatively few rocket and mortar strikes into Israel in 2010 and 2011, Hamas increased the numbers strikingly this year, and finally fired more than 100 into Israel this past weekend. This was a deliberate effort by Hamas to elicit an Israeli response, for it was obvious that as the numbers grew any Israeli government would have to protect its population. One must assume that if Israel had not responded to the hundred rockets last weekend, Hamas would have upped the ante even more until it got what it wanted.

But that’s not what Abrams wrote earlier this week before the ceasefire. He wrote this today. Note that everything he writes is true. He just fails to mention anything that Israel has done wrong. You know, little things, like breaking the ceasefire and killing a bunch of people. And as always, he makes a very big deal of the mostly impotent rockets from Palestine.

I admit that I don’t understand what is going on. It is hard to sort through all the conflicting information. It certainly seems that Israel has done something very bad, but I’m sure they have their reasons. The problem is that most of our media just follow the Elliott Abrams line that Israel is always right and Palestine is always wrong. And as a result, we never get anywhere near the truth.

Afterword

It is interesting to compare Abrams bit of agitprop with The Daily Beast article by Yousef Munayyer. Munayyer seems to be every bit as much of partisan as Abrams but he presents the conflict between two groups of people with conflicting desires. Abrams presents it as a conflict between good and evil. My internal sense of drama tells me that I have to side with Munayyer. I think there’s a general rule here: when someone presents a conflict as clear cut, he is lying.

Munayyer ends the article:

Why, then, would Israel choose to revert to a failed strategy that will undoubtedly only escalate the situation? Because it is far easier for politicians to lie to voters, vilify their adversaries, and tell them ‘we will hit them hard’ than to come clean and say instead, ‘we’ve failed and there is no military solution to this problem.’

With Israeli elections around the corner, the right-wing Israeli government chose the counter-productive path of escalation even though civilians would pay the price and their domestic opposition rallied behind them.

Trading bodies for ballots is an equation Israeli leaders are happy to be engaged in, especially since all the ballots are Israeli and the bodies are almost always Palestinian.

Age Discrimination and Social Security

Morley SaferAaron Carroll, our go to man for healthcare reform and chewing gum swallowing, has written an article over at The Incidental Economist, Zombie Life Expectancy Arguments. In it, he provides five charts that show that it is wrong to say that we should raise the retirement age because people are living long. In particular, he shows that while life expectancy at birth has gone up 10 years since 1950, life expectancy at 65 has only gone up 4 years. What this means is that fewer people die as babies but that doesn’t mean a thing regarding Social Security.

The situation is even worse than this 4 year number indicates. Most of that comes from upper income people. Since 1977, those in the upper half of the income distribution have seen their life expectancy rise 6 years. But those in the lower half of the income distribution are only living 1 year longer. In other words, the people who most rely on Social Security are not living longer and so the whole argument goes away.

There are a couple of other perspectives to look at regarding raising the retirement age. First is one that a lot of people talk about: those doing manual labor might have a hard time continuing to work until they are 70. The people calling for changes in the retirement age are all white collar workers who don’t need to do anything that requires physical strength or fast reflexes. We really need to take these workers into account when discussing these issues.

The other issue that I give a lot of thought to is age discrimination. In the high tech field, I started experiencing this at 30 years old. More to the point, age discrimination is everywhere. Sure, Morley Safer keeps his 60 Minutes gig even at 81, but he’s a star; they get to do whatever they want. But the manager at Big Lots? At 65, he’s going to find his life harder. In fact, he’s probably going to find his life harder at 55. We have a very ageist society—old people are not appreciated. Or at least not appreciated enough.

So it is wrong to push up the age for retirement benefits when the society is not similarly pushing up the age that it thinks people are still valuable members of the workforce.

Ireland’s Medieval Abortion Laws

Savita Halappanavar protest“Another heavenly day.” That’s the first thing that Winnie says in Happy Days, one of Samuel Beckett’s most disturbing plays. Every day is heavenly in Ireland, because they are a Roman Catholic country. And as such, abortion is illegal in that God fearing country.

You know what really makes for a heavenly day? Carrying around a dead fetus in your womb. It’s heavenly is so many ways. First, you can feel the honor of doing something totally useful for the sake of God. (Although, I still find the logic against abortion and condoms kind of circuitous owing to the fact that neither of them are in the Bible.) Second, you get to suffer—just like that Jesus guy. And third, you get to see God so much sooner.

Savita Halappanavar had many heavenly days before her 28 October death due to blood poisoning resulting from her dead fetus. She was 17 weeks pregnant. And she tried to get an abortion because the fetus was not viable. But the good Christian doctors of Ireland wouldn’t provide that service. Mustn’t offend God. Or something.

Halappanavar was a 31-year-old dentist from India. So if this is what happens to rich educated women, you can imagine the situation for the poor and uneducated. Of course, Ireland has public funding of healthcare so that helps. Imagine the situation in another country, say, the United States. The problem with Ireland is not that it’s Catholic. After all, in Italy, they allow abortion for the first 3 months of a pregnancy. The problem is that Ireland is parochial. A much bigger problem is that the United States is even more parochial.

Add to that, major politicians like Joe Walsh who said the “death of the mother” exception for abortion was just a loophole to allow women to get more and more abortions. He claimed that there was no such thing, “With modern science and technology, you can’t find one instance.” Thankfully, Walsh lost his re-election bid, but I fear he will be back.

I have long been of the opinion that we as liberals should not be in a discussion of rape or life exceptions. But that is because cases like these shouldn’t even be open to discussion. The Halappanavar case shows that this isn’t just an issue of politics or even individual rights. When we allow the debate to be framed by those on the right, lives are at stake.

According to Wikipedia, the “Hospital is being subjected to several investigations.” Does anyone really think the problem here is medical malpractice? This is political malpractice. No amount of hospital reform will prevent this from happening again. Hopefully, Savita Halappanavar’s death will do some good. It seems there is some push back against these medieval laws. But this is an unnecessary tragedy caused by extremists who think that zygotes are more important than living, breathing women.

Stay Put John Kerry

John KerryThere is always a lot more that I want to write about than I have time for. For the last day or two, I’ve been wanting to write about this rumor that Obama is going to appoint John Kerry as Secretary of Defense. If this is true, I am really worried about President Obama. It seemed that after the debt ceiling debacle, he learned that politics is a game that requires strategy. This could prove that he learned nothing.

Look, this is simple. In 2014, there will be 20 Democratic Senators and only 13 Republican Senators up for re-election. The Republicans have a very good chance of taking the Senate back in 2014. So the Democrats don’t want to lose even a single seat in the Senate. If Kerry steps down, that seat could easily go Republican. And I think you know the Republican I’m talking about: that great defended of Indian rights, Scott Brown.

I understand. If you are really bad at playing the game of politics, you might think, “The Democrats won’t lose control of the Senate if they lose one seat.” And this is true. But this is one more seat that the Democrats will have to hold in 2014. It doesn’t make sense to make a hard election even harder.

Some will say that I am underestimating the President. They will use the 9-dimensional chess argument. They will claim that he knows what he’s doing. But when people have made these claims in the past, they’ve been wrong. And even if the Democrats manage to hold onto Kerry’s senate seat, it will still have been a dangerous move.

Take one for the team, Senator Kerry: remain a lowly United States Senator!

Half of Stargate Not Bad

StargateBefore you ask: I had my reasons! I watched the film Stargate this evening. And I was really impressed with the first half. Other than that the film encourages people to believe Erich von Däniken‘s silly claims about ancient astronauts, it is impressive. There are two very compelling character arcs. James Spader is searching for the family he’s never had (and a steady job). Kurt Russell is trying to get over the death of his son. These two things are handled really well.

And then the shooting begins. Basically, the second half of the film is just action. And all action films have to have the same bullshit. James Spader goes from a clumsy nerd to a gun toting stud; as does his “wife”; as do all the local kids who have never even seen guns before. The villain acts stupidly just to allow the heroes to get away—repeatedly, but especially when Spader is supposed to publicly execute his comrades. The badass hero has to spout “clever” lines right before he kills a bad guy, “Give my regards to King Tut, asshole.” (Do people like these kinds of things? They just embarrass me.) In other words, all the intelligence that the screenwriters showed in the first half of the film leaves in the second half.

Another problem with these kinds of action movies is the conservative rhetoric that gets spouted. “Father, we will not live as slaves!” I’m at least as much against living as slaves as anyone else. But there is a subtext here that I find disturbing. Such statements are distinctly jingoistic. They imply that slavery is something you have if you are peaceful and freedom is something you have if you kill people.

As action films go, Stargate is quite good. You get a whole half of a movie that doesn’t totally suck. Then you get another half that doesn’t suck any more than most action films. So there’s that. Of course, you could just watch Johnny Got His Gun.

Vegetarian Dinosaurs

I like to put up things that amuse me. Lewis Black is a hit or miss kind of guy, but he’s very good here. Just for the record, the standard Creationist explanation for why vegetarian Tyrannosauruses had six-inch serrated teeth was to better bite into watermelons and other tough-skinned fruit.

Romney Really Thinks What We Thought

Mitt Romney smirkJonathan Chait discovers the real Mitt Romney. And guess what?! It’s exactly what we thought: “The real Romney is indeed a sneering plutocrat.”

This comes from an article in the Los Angeles Times by Maeve Reston, Romney Reflects on His Loss in Call With Campaign Donors. The article is about a conference call that Romney had with donors today. Basically, Romney gave the Bill O’Reilly line: the poor want “free stuff” and President Obama is giving it to them. This isn’t true, of course: if anything, it is Romney who was pandering.

Chait notes that this is what we already thought:

I think the latest Romney donor remarks ought to put to rest the debate about his sincerity. When the 47 percent remarks emerged, I argued that it was the real Romney speaking. Some moderate Republicans suggested he was merely pandering to people whose donations he badly needed. I never thought this made much sense—surely Romney had ways of relating to wealthy Republicans without launching an extended analysis he didn’t believe—but the latest version of essentially the same riff ought to put that debate to rest.

I would go further. This is how the all the Republican elite think. They don’t have to make $20 million per year. In fact, that whole message that says loafers are stealing your stuff is an especially strong argument to people who are just scraping to get by. But it’s hard to say this about your unemployed brother-in-law who you know is working hard to find a job. It is much easier if you can imply that it is those brown-skinned people who you don’t much interact with. And this is part of the Republican demographic challenge.

Inequality: the Monopoly Analogy

MonopolyRegular reader and sometimes writer Mack brought my attention to a PBS documentary, Independent Lens Park Avenue: Money, Power & the American Dream. It is about the two ends of Park Avenue: the part in the Upper West Side and the part in Harlem. It is a way of looking at income inequality in a very concrete way. It is a nice addition to Winner-Take-All Politics—coauthor Jacob Hacker is even interviewed in it. (See my article on the book.)

What most struck me in the film was a study that social psychologist Paul Piff did with the game of Monopoly. Instead of giving players an equal start, he defined players as either rich or poor. The rich player received three times the usual starting cash. The poor player received half the usual starting cash, got half as much money for passing go, and had to roll one die instead of the usual two. Obviously, the poor player lost—and quickly. But what is interesting is that the designated rich players developed a sense of entitlement. They demanded their wages and seemed to feel large amounts of schadenfreude.

This is all very interesting, but I think the more important lesson we can learn from the game is something that Piff mentioned in the interview:

Let’s imagine that you’re invited to a game of Monopoly. And you arrive at this game to find out that all the property’s been divided up. All of the money has already been handed out. But you’re told, “Hey: go ahead and sit down. Play the game; we’re going to give you a chance to play just like everyone else.

Here’s the thing: you have, as the Republicans like to say, “Equality of opportunity.” You get to roll the dice. You are as likely to land on Chance as anyone else. You too get $200 when you pass go. What’s the problem?!

The problem is that you have no money and you would have no current opportunity to buy any property even if you had money. True equality would be if all the properties were unowned and everyone had the same amount of money—with the Monopoly economy or the real one. But check it out: you could still win. If you were ridiculously lucky—way more than “spade royal flush” lucky—you could win. And if enough people play enough games of Monopoly, eventually a poor player will win. Just like some small percentage of people in the real economy who grow up in poverty but go on to be hedge fund managers.

And that’s what’s so frustrating talking to conservatives who throw up the occasional exceptional success as proof that there really is “equality of opportunity.” I think this Monopoly example really clarifies the issue. And I plan to use it a lot in the future.

Otherwise, Park Avenue: Money, Power & the American Dream is a good documentary on income inequality. It’s well worth watching, even if you already know all about income inequality. And I’m going to make it easy on you. Here it is:

Two Ventriloquist Films

DumbstruckI just watched two documentaries about ventriloquism. The first, Dumbstruck, is about amateurs and the normal professionals. One of those normal professionals, Terry Fator, went from unknown to winning America’s Got Talent and becoming one of the highest paid comedians in history during the course of the film. On the other end of the scale is a 13 year old boy, Dylan Burdette, who dreams of being a professional ventriloquist. There is also Wilma Swartz, a 6’5″ tall woman who does a lot of charity work with her puppets. And Kim Yeager, a former beauty queen who does hundreds of gigs at schools every year.

One thing that really stuck out to me in this film was what dicks many of the family members were. Swartz’s siblings have disowned her, at least partly because of the puppets (she is otherwise quite eccentric). Burdette’s father is very concerned that his son plays with dolls and is short. (Burdette has since grown taller than his father but he still plays with dolls.) Yeager’s mother never seems to say anything other than that her daughter ought to give up the dolls and have babies with the first man who passes by. (Yeager has since married.) And Terry Fator’s father wouldnn’t even show up to one of his gigs after Fator signed a $100 million 5 year contract with The Mirage.

The most impressive of the ventriloquist featured in Dumbstruck was Dan Horn. But before I tell you about him: his wife of 25 years left him during the making of the film. (Andrea claims this is because he’s gay. But he’s not gay; he’s a ventriloquist; there’s a difference.) Anyway… I’m not that fond of ventriloquism. What I love is puppetry. And Horn is as good a puppeteer as I have ever seen. His characters come alive in ways that frankly I’ve never seen with a ventriloquist. Here his is back in 1988, although I think he is better now:

I liked Dumbstruck more than the other movies, because I liked seeing the real world of ventriloquism. Most people, however, would prefer the second film, I’m No Dummy. It is more the view of ventriloquism from the perspective of the stars. It does a good job of providing a history of the last century of the art form. There are also interviews with historians and a museum curator. Plus there is lots of old footage of Paul Winchell, Edgar Bergen, Arthur Worsley, Wenceslao Moreno (Señor Wences), and Jimmy Nelson (still alive and performing). It is all great fun to watch.

About half the film is made up of interviews with modern practitioners. I’m very fond of Lynn Trefzger and Jay Johnson, so that was all very enjoyable. Unfortunately, a lot of screen time was devoted to Jeff Dunham. I’m not just being a contrarian here. Terry Fator is now as big as Dunham and I have a high regard for Fator. Dunham is funny enough—amusing but not hilarious. As a ventriloquist, he is barely acceptable at the professional level. As a puppeteer, he is terrible. Watch him with Walter, Dunham can’t even get his lips to sync up with the voice. Whatever.

Both movies are quite enjoyable and worth a watch. There is far more actual comedy in I’m No Dummy, but Dumbstruck is also quite amusing with all the human drama of real lives. Plus: really unpleasant family members!

Thomas Friedman’s New Syria Metaphor

Thomas Friedman - Artist's ConceptionYesterday, paste eating pundit Thomas Friedman told us that the Middle East is about to explode. In fact, he claims that Obama could be facing all the Middle East conflicts suffered by presidents from Eisenhower on. “Does that mean Egypt is going to nationalize the Suez Canal?” you ask. Don’t take Friedman literally; he just means that some country will try to nationalize some body of water. Or something. Mostly: paste tastes good!

Let me lay Friedman’s theory on you because it is brilliant. Iraq was like a grenade that went off, but America jumped on it—saving the whole region. But that grenade was exploded by… America! And that’s what you’ve got to understand about the Middle Easy. It is a tender box and we need nations to come in and explode them. Or something:

Still, the lesson is that if you’re trying to topple one of these iron-fisted, multisectarian regimes, it really helps to have an outside power that can contain the explosions and mediate a new order.

You know: the explosions that these outside powers create.

So what is the solution for Syria? Friedman claims that we should talk to Syria’s lawyer, which is Russia. (I swear I am not making that up.) Once we do that, we can set up a meeting with their CPA (Mongolia), cardiologist (Indonesia), and massage therapist (strangely, also Russia). Then, if necessarily, we can bring in their home decorator (Germany, of course), and change the colors to something more soothing. If none of that works, we’ll just bomb the fuckers.

Afterword

In all seriousness, what is up with Friedman? He was for the Iraq War. For years he promised that the following six months would be critical. Finally, he admitted that Iraq was a mess and the war was a mistake. How easily he forgets! Now he wants to rush into Syria? I used to think for all his nuttiness about globalization and all his war monger tendencies, he was still pretty smart when it comes to foreign policy. I was wrong. He is stupid and dangerous.

Hard Drive Sizes

Hard DriveBack in the late 1980s, NeXT released a high end workstation that had no hard drive. It only had a CD, because, hey, hard drives were a thing of the past. Sure, they been coming down in price at an amazing speed, but how long could that last? The manufacturers had worked all the magic they could. There just was no way they were going to be able to keep this up. The hard drive had come to the end of the road. It was time for something new.

There was just one tiny problem: the hard drive manufacturers seem to have had an endless supply of magic to do on magnetic plates.The cost of hard drive storage has gone down exponentially over time and there seems to be no end in sight. Let me just give you a little taste of it. This is the cost of one gigabyte of data storage over the years.

1980: $1,000,000.00
1985:   $100,000.00
1990:    $10,000.00
1995:       $300.00
2000:        $10.00
2005:         $0.20
2010:         $0.03

Of course, the drives are smaller, quieter, and faster. So there’s a trade off. Oh, wait…