Fix The Debt Hypocrisy

Matt YglesiasWhat [Fix The Debt] believe in, instead, is the overwhelmingly importance of rate-cutting tax reform and reduced spending on retirement programs. Which is fine. Tax reform and the appropriate level of spending on bolstering the living standards of retired people are legitimate topics for debate. But if you saw a bunch of Quakers running around in a panic about the national debt pushing a plan to reduce the debt by cutting military spending, and then loudly objecting to all debt-reduction plans that don’t slash military spending you’d rapidly reach the conclusion that the Quakers don’t actually care about the national debt. They’re just pacifists. And good for them! But it would be extremely frustrating for them to run around pretending to be accountants.

—Matt Yglesias
The Fix The Debt Two-Step

Unskewed Polls Reinvented

Nate Silver tweeted this morning that we should not give Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls any of the attention he so clearly craves. But this is like crack—it’s hard to resist. Chambers has started a new website, Barack O’Fraudo. On it, he offers up the following graph (thanks for Digby):

This is ridiculous, of course. But I still have a question, “Where did the other 73 votes go?” You may remember Unskewed Polls’ second to last election prediction (They put out a last-minute face-saving prediction that weren’t based upon new poll results.):

Unskewed Polls Projection of Presidential Race 2012

So if Obama stole those states, giving Romney 286 electoral votes, what happened to the 73 votes that would have brought Romney up to 359 votes? It just doesn’t make sense. But then it isn’t suppose to. I think that Chambers is just using his celebrity to make money off gullible conservatives—just like Fox News.

Republicans Waiting for Superman

SupermanLook! Out in the right wing echo chamber! It’s a tax cut proposal?! It’s a birth control ban?! No! It’s another appeal to conservatives to seem reasonable without changing a God damned thing!

Yes, the “let’s all speak nicely about Latinos”: argument from a fantasy land far away, come to reality hoping to obfuscate, distract, and deceive the American people.

Katrina Trinko over at National Review writes, Huntsman’s Problem Wasn’t Just That He Was Perceived as a Moderate. That title gives you the wrong impression, however. Really what’s she’s saying is that Huntsman’s policies were mostly to the right of Romney. The problem was that he just seemed too damned reasonable!

Trinko goes on to note that Huntsman didn’t run a good campaign, but this is a minor complaint. He could easily run a stellar campaign next time. After all, if he had just stayed in the race, at some point, like all the others, he would have surged ahead in the polls. And given that he actually was a real politician, he might have stayed there.

What Trinko seems to be offering is the idea that if Republicans can just hold their noses and vote for a candidate who doesn’t pander to their vile ideal, they might get a really conservative candidate who can win. This all comes down to the argument conservatives have been making since the election: it is the style rather than the substance of their policies that are scaring minority voters away. But no: it’s really is the substance.

I’m not one of those who think that the Democrats are home free now. Republicans will continue to win low-turnout elections. But for the majority of voters, their ideas are toxic. And it doesn’t matter how much they dress up these ideas. Even in a Superman cape, they just won’t fly.

John Metz: Idiot and Fucktard

Fucktard John Metz of Denny'sMatt Yglesias has been writing a bit about about these business owners who are whining that the ACA (Obamacare) is just going to destroy their businesses. In particular, he highlighted John Metz, owner of more than 30 Denny’s restaurant franchises, he said he was going to add a 5% “Obamacare surcharge” on all customer bills. Because he’s such a charming motherfucker, he added that the customers could take the surcharge out of the server tip, because after all: they’re “the primary beneficiary of Obamacare.”

These comments didn’t sit too well with the CEO of Denny’s. John Miller had a private meeting with Metz and afterward said that he was “disappointed” in Metz. Yesterday, Metz released a statement that he regretted his remarks. There is a proximate reason for Miller’s swift action, of course: people were talking boycott and were generally pissed off at Denny’s. But I think there’s more to this. So does Yglesias.

Matt Yglesias puts it this way:

But my strong suspicion is that the CEO is right about this and that’s actually a terrible way to market a 5 percent price increase. The basic business proposition at any restaurant is the idea that we’re giving you a dining experience that’s more valuable to you than the money we’re asking for. It’s a good deal, come eat our tasty food. Whining about the fact that your servers now have health insurance is neither here nor there in terms of the value proposition on offer, and is only going to serve to alienate people by making you look like an asshole.

I agree with all of this, but I don’t think this is the main issue—or at least this isn’t the way that I would put it. This is all about demographics. If everyone in this country voted, Democrats could win every election by a landslide. Everyone doesn’t vote, of course, so Republicans do okay. But everyone does go out to eat from time to time. What’s more, the people who go out to Denny’s tend toward the poor. These are people who are going to be most hostile to a partisan Republican stunt like blaming part of the cost of the mean on President Obama.

Yglesias is correct, that everything that Metz said is likely to offend everyone—even Republicans. But had he said nothing and just added the surcharge, it might have tickled the 30% of his clientele who are Republican. But the 70% Democrats would find it offensive and perhaps choose another of the similar low-cost dining choices.

But I’m still planning to boycott all Denny’s in Florida just in case the money might go to this fucktard John Metz.

Topless Car Wash Crack Down

Topless Car WashDerrick Belcher claims to be a libertarian. If I could, I would get rid of the word “libertarian” because it is just a meaningless word that conservatives use. Sure, there are libertarians who hate the Republican Party as much or more than they hate the Democratic Party. But such people are very rare and with notable exceptions, hidden. So it is better to think of Derrick Belcher as a conservative and not the “absolute Libertarian” he calls himself.

He lives in Alabama and, like so many other conservative loons, he wants to secede from the union. The reason I know he is just another conservative is what he says about secession, “I don’t think any one state can stand alone. But if we’ve got 20 of them, then that starts to be something.” He means 20 red states, of course (more on that in a moment). “Libertarian” is not the first word that comes to mind when you think of Mississippi, Arkansas, and West Virginia. “Poor” might be the first word, given that they are the poorest states in the union.

But Belcher has an answer to that! “If you look at a map of the red states, we have all of the oil and we produce all of the food. We’re the ones that are carrying the rest of the nation.” You didn’t expect him to be right did you? Of the top six agricultural states, three of them are bright blue. And combined, they produce more food than the three red states. Of oil producing states, two of the top six are blue. Same for natural gas. And the same for coal. (Surprisingly, bright blue Illinois produces twice as much coal are red West Virginia.)

Of course, none of this really matters. Energy and food are transported. But I suspect that Belcher wants his new confederation of states to be truly independent. Good for him! And good luck to him, because it is a stupid idea as any economist will tell you.

What Mr. Belcher seems most upset about is that back in 2001, the government shut down his topless car wash.[1] He said, “The government ripped my business away, and now they’re choking America to death with rules and regulations.” According to the article:

“The American people are being mistreated by the federal government and there is absolutley no reason why we shouldn’t end this treatment from the federal government,” Belcher told WKRG. “And I guess there is a part of me that is angry because my government has mistreated me year after year after year and I am fed up with it and I know there are several other people in this state and all across the country that are fed up with it as well.”

This is typical of conservatives. It is very frustrating to talk to conservatives about the Middle East because in their minds, there are only two kinds of people there: Israelis and Not Israelis. This is also true if you include India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. And here Belcher doesn’t seem to understand that there are different levels of government. They must all be the feds! It wasn’t the federal government which shut down his “nasty wash”; it was the state of Alabama.

The truth is, if Derrick Belcher were a libertarian as he claims, he would be worried that big liberty-killing laws would be enacted by the social conservatives in an independent Alabama. But that is doubtless not what this is all about. He said he is angry. And when a conservative is angry, they don’t really care if, say, they attack the wrong country. So what the hell: the state passed a law he doesn’t like; separate from the nation!


[1] In many ways, I am a very naive man. When I read he had a “topless car wash” I thought it was a car wash for convertibles. All of my readers are hereby on notice that this is charming and not pathetic! (BTW: the image above is from a “topless” car wash where they the bottom part of your car for free but charged $5 to do the top. So there!)

Exekiel 4:9

Ezekiel 4:9Do you remember Jules in Pulp Fiction, when he’s talk to Big Brain Brett? “You read the Bible, Brett? Well there’s this passage I got memorized—sort of fits this occasion. Ezekiel four nine: take wheat and barley, beans and lentils, millet and spelt; put them in a storage jar and use them to make bread for yourself. You are to eat it during the 390 days you lie on your side.” Don’t remember it? Well, that’s because he didn’t say it. He quoted Ezekiel 25:17, although most of what Jules quotes if not actually in the Bible.

Why do I bring up Ezekiel 4:9? And why would someone lie on his side for 390 days? Frankly, I have no answer to the second question—it has something to do with surviving a siege. But the answer to the first is: bread. Andrea told me she came upon some bread in the grocery store from a company called Food For Life with a product line named “Ezekiel 4:9.” That got me interested.

I figured the company must either be Jewish or right-wing born again Christian. If the former, I was okay about it. If it was the latter, I figured it was some company trying to make a point, and I was not okay about it. Does that make me anti-Christian? No. I’m just as much against literalist Judaism; it’s just that one doesn’t see such nonsense very often in modern America.

So I went over to the Food For Life website, and I found that I was probably wrong. If I had to guess, I would say that they are hippy Christians. They’re all animal, yeast, and gluten free. They specialize in foods so good for you that you could eat marble and still be able to set your watch by your bowel movements.

They also offer a product line called “Genesis 1:29.” (I’ll let you look up that one!) So these people are pretty serious about this stuff. Then again, they aren’t that serious about it: they’ve trademarked both Bible verses. And they have a dove as part of their logo. So I’m sticking with the hippy label. Of course, this doesn’t mean these are defenders of the poor. I know a number of hippy business owners and they’re are still, you know, business owners.

I won’t be buying any Food For Life products, however. It isn’t because of their religious beliefs. I once tried to be healthy by eating only sprouted wheat and all of that. It almost killed me.

Afterword

Flies and a Very Good Pinot

House Fly Drenched in Water VaporI like to drink while I cook—generally a nice pinot noir like the 2011 Hahn Winery. But I’m not a big drinker, so I often end up leaving half a glass of wine undrank. Most of the time, this results in one or more house flies dead in the wine the next day. I’ve thought about this a lot and I have a hypothesis that I plan to test next summer when the flies come back.

According to Fruit Fly Traps (which deals with fruit flies, but I doubt it matters), flies like liquids like vinegar, apple cider, orange juice, and wine. Thus they land to drink it and drown because they are stupid. I am skeptical.

I think that flies are significantly less likely to die in orange juice than in wine. The alcohol in wine vaporizes at a significant rate. I think that while drinking the wine, the flies pass out from lack of oxygen and thus drown.

This is pure speculation. If anyone knows anything about this important scientific question, please let me know. Otherwise, when the flies return I will present my results.


The picture above is from the Daily Mail, “This close-up picture shows a house fly drenched in water vapour, which look like large globules of water under the intense magnification.” It is from an article A Little Too Close For Comfort? It has a number of really great close-up pictures of insects.

Rubio’s Young Earth Fantasies

Marco RubioMarco Rubio has made a bit of a stir with comments about his young earth belief. It isn’t so much the beliefs; they are standard fair in the conservative movement. What is most appalling is his relativistic statement in support of these beliefs, “At the end of the day, I think there are multiple theories out there on how the universe was created and I think this is a country where people should have the opportunity to teach them all.” If I didn’t know what he was thinking, I would yield the point. The truth is there are different theories and I think it is a great idea teach them all. But I’m talking about actual scientific theories and this is not what Rubio is talking about. He wants the Genesis myth to be taught as science.

I’m not kidding about this. He goes on to say, “I think parents should be able to teach their kids what their faith says, what science says. Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I’m not sure we’ll ever be able to answer that. It’s one of the great mysteries.” No. It isn’t one of the great mysteries. The earth was not created in 7 days and I don’t know what an “actual era” is. These are the words of a man who can not back up his beliefs. His religion tells him that the universe is not the way we know it to be so he claims that we should teach “all sides of it”: the side that’s true and the fantasy he wants to believe. This isn’t even handed. This is simple distortion of the truth.

Digby dug up a 2009 article about what Rubio was saying then, via Little Green Footballs:

Rubio added, “And for me, personally, I don’t want a school system that teaches kids that what they’re learning at home is wrong.”

Rubio, a Cuban-American, made a comparison to the strategy employed by the Communist Party in Cuba where schools encouraged children to turn in parents who criticized Fidel Castro.

“Of course, I’m not equating the evolution people with Fidel Castro,” he quickly added, while noting that undermining the family and the church were key means the Communist Party used to gain control in Cuba.

What I find most offensive about these words is how they fit into the context of my lifetime here in the United States. There is only one party that ever acted in this way. It was the Republican Party under Reagan and Bush that encouraged children to turn their parents in for drug use and dealing. I remember Bush praising a grammar school child for having turned her cocaine dealing parents into the police. So to have a Republican claim that teaching evolution is somehow going to turn children against their parents when his own party worked to do that very thing in the name of their useless Drug War makes my blood boil.

It would be nice to think that anyone as delusional as Rubio couldn’t become president. But we know that isn’t the case. Well over half the people of the United States believe the same disproven rubbish that he spouts. There really are facts in the world, however. But the modern Republican Party will have none of it. And as we know from Charles Krauthammer, the only thing the Republicans need to change about themselves is to be a little less vile regarding Latinos. So don’t be surprised if roughly 50% of the country votes for a Cuban young earth proponent in 2016.

And a Little Child Will Lead

Guess Who?Isaiah 11:6 tells us:

The wolf will live with the lamb,
The leopard will lie down with the goat,
The calf and the lion and the yearling together;
And a little child will lead them.

That time has come my friends. Jennifer O’Connell has posted an email sent from R— (Do you feel like you are in the middle of a 19th century novel?) to Hasbro, the toy and game company. (I assume R— is O’Connell’s daughter, but I don’t know.) She sent the following email to the company regarding their game Guess Who?

My name is R—. I am six years old. I think it’s not fair to only have 5 girls in Guess Who and 19 boys. It is not only boys who are important, girls are important too. If grown ups get into thinking that girls are not important they won’t give little girls much care.

Also if girls want to be a girl in Guess Who they’ll always lose against a boy, and it will be harder for them to win. I am cross about that and if you don’t fix it soon, my mum could throw Guess Who out.

My mum typed this message but I told her what to say.

I hope that this email causes Hasbro to change their game design. However, their initial response was not good. They said:

Guess Who? is a guessing game based on a numerical equation. If you take a look at the characters in the game, you will notice that there are five of any given characteristics. The idea of the game is, that by process of elimination, you narrow down who it isn’t, thus determining who it is. The game is not weighted in favour of any particular character, male or female. Another aspect of the game is to draw attention away from using gender or ethnicity as the focal point, and to concentrate on those things that we all have in common, rather than focus on our differences.

This doesn’t answer the question at all. I can see where they might only put mustaches on men. But there is no reason they couldn’t have 12 men and 12 women characters.

I encourage everyone to write to Hasbro at askhasbro@hasbro.co.uk or most likely askhasbro@hasbro.com, but I can’t find a direct email address—they want me to create an account, the bastards! If you do, tell them you’d like to see 12 or even 13 female characters in Guess Who? (because there are more women in the world than men).

Regardless, I have confidence that R— has it well in hand.

Grow the Social Safety Net

Paul KrugmanWe need a bigger social safety net. Yesterday, Paul Krugman pointed this out by noting our modern economy where everyone is just supposed to get used to the fact that you will have a new job every three years and that insecurity is now normal so get over it. This kind of dynamism requires some kind of bedrock that we can all hold onto. And the only such bedrock comes from the welfare state.

I have a problem with the “new job every three years” idea, even though that has been my life. All this new economic dynamism has mostly been on the part of workers, not companies. It would be one thing if companies only lasted three years. But what happens is that companies that last 100 years no longer show any loyalty to their workers. (Even while they complain that workers don’t show enough loyalty to these companies.)

What has really happened in the modern world is that the government long ago declared open season on unions and all manner of other worker rights. So now workers are in the position of beggars, hoping that some company will take pity on them and employ them for a few years.

Of course, the people who want to destroy the social safety net are the same people who want to eliminate worker rights. I was amused earlier in the year when some conservative MP claimed that everyone should start their own businesses. This is absurd, of course. If that happened, there would be no businesses, just 7 billion private contractors. But what’s interesting in this context is that such a claim implies that people who complain about lack of work should just be able to start their own businesses. “Just take out a loan from your parents!”

I think we are past the point where we can reasonably claim that the right in this country (or just about any other) is an honest broker. They hate the poor. They think the poor are morally deficient. They would prefer that the poor just die off, but as long as they are powerless and hidden, fine.

Krugman is right of course: now more than ever, we need the social safety net. If companies are going to follow the Gordon Gekko model that profits are all and they owe nothing to society, the government needs to take over. But as long as these business owners have the power that goes along with their profits, they will fight hard to impoverish workers outside their business environment. The smaller the safety net, the more pliant the workers will be.

Eventually, this all ends in a feudal state, of course. So while we still have a democracy, we must fight to empower workers. And that means expanding the welfare state, not just protecting it.

Republican Moderates Not So Moderate

David FrumThere was an amusing bit on Real Time last Friday. The panel was talking about Romney’s recent conference call and how the adults in the Republican Party needed to take control. Maher said that one way they could do that was to stop all this nonsense about Benghazi. Given that Real Time is at base a comedy show, it is not surprising what happened next. The two “reasonable” Republicans, David Frum and Ana Navarro, got apoplectic. “But there is a cover-up!”

This is the problem with all of the talk about the Republican Party reforming itself. The Republican elite didn’t get into power by accident. The difference between the extremists and the moderates is the way that they talk about issues, not where they actually stand on issues. Like the rank and file members of the party, moderates are authoritarian followers. As much as I look for reasons to explain the conservative worldview, nothing fits better than John Dean’s authoritarian theory.

This gets to the heart of what is so frustrating about talking to Republicans. Most of the time they are incredibly reasonable. Yet in the heat of an election or on an issue that Fox News is pushing (e.g. Benghazi), they lose all perspective. This explains why they look back so fondly on Bill Clinton and how they will gush with praise over Obama in 8 years. These people are easily led by demagoguery.

The reason the most vile Republicans rise to the top is that they best pose the issues in a way that the conservative authoritarian followers can accept. The question is never do you want to protect everyone from potential global warming; it is: do you want to destroy the economy or believe in a liberal conspiracy theory? It is never how do we best help the poor; it is: do you want your hard earned money going to a bunch of loafers? It is never what is the proper role of government surveillance; it is do you want another 9/11?

When I talk to conservatives their answers are normally nuanced. But they can’t help jumping for the sloganeering of the party elites. And this is as true of the public “moderates” as it is for the rest. Both Frum and Navarro said reasonable things about non-partisan issues. But that doesn’t make them any less dangerous. In fact, it makes them more dangerous. They clearly have the capacity to see the complexity of the world but they choose to (following Stephen Colbert) let their guts lead them.

And this is why the Republican Party will not reform itself anytime soon. For all the reasonable talk from the moderates, they are as easy to get worked up in a froth as the rest of their party. The froth production masters are the crazies. When David Frum manages to not get excited by things like the Benghazi scandal, then the party will change.

Afterword

Read John Dean’s excellent Conservatives Without Conscience.

And look! Candy:

The Movie Game

Talking at the moviesPeople don’t like movies as much as they like games. At least, that’s what I learned today at a matinee of Lincoln filled with old people. Most of them just go to see how many actors they can name. The people sitting next to me only got two names right: Hal Holbrook and Tommy Lee Jones. That’s not quite correct, though: it wasn’t that they only got two names right; they only got two names at all.

For example, every time Joseph Gordon-Levitt was on screen as Lincoln’s eldest, one would say things like, “Isn’t that the guy from…” And then he would trail off, allowing the other to say, “Yeah, he’s the guy…” I wanted to scream, “He’s the kid from 3rd Rock from the Sun you idiots, now shut up!” But I feared this would cause them to ask me questions for the rest of the picture.

But for these people and so many more like them, let me clarify. Lincoln was played by the guy from My Left Foot. Mary Lincoln was played by the Flying Nun. Secretary of State Seward was played by the creepy pedophile in Dolores Claiborne, but he’s been in almost every movie you people have seen in the last 20 years. Sol Star from Deadwood and the prison guard from Minority Report played two of Republican operatives. And yes, Mark Twain (Or Deep Throat, take your pick!) played the leader of the conservative Republicans and U.S. Marshal Samuel Gerard played Thaddeus Stevens.

Now if I happen to go see Lincoln again, will you all shut the fuck up?!