Recent Comments List Increased

Frank MoraesThis is just a brief note to update you on the happenings here. I’m working a lot away from Frankly Curious, so it’s been a bit difficult to keep up on comments. I am glad to see that some of you are talking to each other, which doesn’t require my response (not that I don’t stick my nose in anyway). So I’ve upped the number of comments that display on the sidebar at the right from 10 to 20. I found I was falling behind by more than 10, and it can be difficult to find old comments.

By the way, if you haven’t discovered the comment list on the right, you should check it out. It is really handy! I used to depend upon it. But I have since learned that I can manage comments from within the administration area for the blog. This is really convenient for me. At the same time, I often have to go over to the page to see what you all are talking about. So if you could provide a bit of context, it would be really helpful — but hardly required.

And now that I’ve written this, there probably won’t be any comments for the next month. But for the record, I really do appreciate comments. In fact, I might feel bad about them if I made any money off this site. But as it is, I consider commenters collaborators. And so I try to take them serious and respond when appropriate — even when people are yelling at me. (FYI: I tend to yell back in those circumstances; I’m the only fool I suffer gladly.)

“Clever” Writers Counting Words Drive Me Crazy

Lucy: Clever WriterI’ve got to get something off my chest. It’s about writing and writers. Why do writers suck so much? Clearly, my standards are not very high. I started this article with an annoying idiom “off my chest.” All I ask for is a bit of clarity and a healthy dose of content. I don’t require David Foster Wallace. Yet I find myself working with writers who turn in embarrassing stuff. Really: embarrassing.

In the musical You’re a Good Man, Charlie Brown, the first act ends with a number called, “A Book Report on Peter Rabbit.” And the characters all approach the assignment in different ways. Linus over-intellectualizes it, “In examining a work such as Peter Rabbit, it is important that its superficial characteristics of its deceptively simple plot not blind the reader to the more substantial fabric of its deeper motivations.” Schroeder insists upon writing about Robin Hood, “It reminded me of Robin Hood in the part where Little John jumped from the rock…” Charlie Brown procrastinates, “If I start writing now, when I’m not really rested, it could upset my system, which is not good at all.”

But Lucy takes an approach that is well known to English teachers everywhere. The book report must be 100 words long, and so Lucy approaches the book report as an engineering exercise. For example, she specifically lists some two dozen different vegetables that were in the garden. And she finishes the report with, “The very very very end.” I think this is just fine coming from an eight year old — especially one who is a cartoon. But one would think that such would not be the case with professional writers. Even when they are being paid by the word (which they mostly are), it seems to me that there would be a sense of honor about this. You just don’t do it!

What’s more, it really doesn’t work. The effort that goes into padding would be far more lucrative if the writer just thought up something interesting (or engaging or absorbing or refreshing or…) to add to the article. But okay, they can’t all be like me. (It is a point of both pride and disease that I write roughly a million words on this blog every year — roughly a novel a month.) The bigger problem is not that these people pad their writing. It is that they can’t throw anything away. They’ve written a hundred words and that’s ten bucks and by God, they are not just going to throw that money away!

The fundamental issue here is that these people do not have a broad enough vision of what they are writing about. Generally, one idea will get you 300 to 500 words. But these articles need to be longer than that. So that requires that the writer come up with more than a single idea. Songwriters understand this — choruses and bridges are among the basic building blocks of a song. But mixing things up is not so clear in the prose writing world. So they write things like, “When you download individual files, those files will also automatically be stored in your default folder for storing downloaded files.” You got us! You made an extra 40¢. One more time and you’ll be able to buy a candy bar!

I really do think the whole thing comes down to love. I can’t say that I love everything that I work on, but I grow extremely attached to the content for as long as I’m writing about it. This is a talent, I know. But there is no more important skill for the nonfiction writer. If you find the subject interesting, you will think of things to write about. If you don’t, then you will end up trying to engineer your way to a set number of words. And you will waste the reader’s time while being really boring.

The very very very end!

If Pope Toed Republican Line, Catholic Republican Would Listen to Him

Paul GosarIf the Pope stuck to standard Christian theology, I would be the first in line. If the Pope spoke out with moral authority against violent Islam, I would be there cheering him on. If the Pope urged the Western nations to rescue persecuted Christians in the Middle East, I would back him wholeheartedly. But…

—Paul Gosar
Why I Am Boycotting Pope Francis’ Address to Congress

How Ideologues Poison Wikipedia

Bill McBrideBill McBride wrote a very interesting article that I want to expand on, Using Nomimal GDP to Mislead: a Bogus Reagan Wikipedia Sentence. Here’s the sentence, “[Reagan’s] economic policies saw a reduction of inflation from 12.5% to 4.4%, and an average annual growth of GDP of 7.91%; while Reagan did enact cuts in domestic spending, military spending increased federal outlays overall, even after adjustment for inflation.” I’m not that up on this kind of stuff, but I bristled at this bit of propaganda. Two things are clearly wrong with it: (1) Reagan should not be given credit for the reduction in inflation; (2) the GDP growth rate is just wrong — not that I knew what it was, but the US has never seen that kind of growth in my lifetime — no advanced economy does.

McBride pointed out three things. First, the decrease in inflation was due to Paul Volcker at the Fed. It it important to remember that Volcker’s work at the Fed is also probably the reason that Carter didn’t get a second term as president, since his policies really hurt the economy in the second half of Carter’s term. Second, the GDP growth rate is given in nominal terms — not adjusted for inflation. The real growth rate was 3.4%, which happens to have been the same as Carter’s growth rate. Reagan was no magician.

And third, the whole end of the sentence is wrong. Reagan did indeed raise domestic spending even after adjustment for inflation. This has been one of the most annoying things of the Obama era. Always before, during recessions, the federal government increased spending. But the Republicans have stopped Obama from doing this. So last year, we saw 2.4% GDP growth — which looks bad until you consider the drastic decline in government spending, because the Republicans know that their only way to power is to destroy the economy.

McBride is a pretty well known guy, so I was curious to see what happened to Wikipedia. His article was published on Tuesday in the afternoon. By late that night, the passage had been change. It was then technically accurate, while still providing the same basic impression, “During Jimmy Carter’s last year in office (1980), inflation averaged 12.5%, compared with 4.4% during Reagan’s last year in office (1988)… and unadjusted GDP growth averaged 7.4% with a high of 12.2% growth in 1982.” They’ve actually made it worse by adding a deceptive and unnecessary comparison: Carter bad, Reagan good. And it left the largely meaningless unadjusted GDP growth rate, but at least it labeled it.

By this morning, the information was better, but not good, “During Jimmy Carter’s last year in office (1980), inflation averaged 12.5%, compared with 4.4% during Reagan’s last year in office (1988)… and real GDP growth averaged 3.44% with a high of 8.55% in 1983, while nominal GDP growth averaged 7.4%, and peaked at 12.2% in 1982.” So they left in the deceptive comparison to Carter and the nominal garbage data, but at least added the data on the real growth rate.

Notice how there is a reference to Carter regarding inflation, because it makes him look bad. But there is no reason to include Carter in this at all. It could just say, as McBride does, that inflation was 11.8% at the start of Reagan’s term and 4.5% at the end — still deceptive in that it gives Reagan credit for something that he didn’t do, but not too bad. Notice also that when mentioning Reagan’s GDP growth, the writers appear to have not thought it worth comparing to Carter — for obvious (very partisan) reasons.

I like Wikipedia a lot, but it is very prone to this kind of nonsense. Wikipedia provides a way for true believers to literally rewrite history. And they do. You may remember back in 2011, Sarah Palin said that Paul Revere “rang bells” while he was “warning the British” — apparently they were unaware that they were attacking. As a result, Palin fans went to the Paul Revere page and added the necessary new postmodern Sarah Palin history about the bells and who Revere was warning. A change would be made, the editors would take it out. And on and on. Eventually, the editors had to stop changes to the page for a while to let the “controversy” settle down.

That’s all we are seeing with the Reagan Wikipedia page. There are people who have deified Reagan. If they see that Wikipedia is saying that economic growth under Reagan was no better than under Carter, and that Reagan shouldn’t get much if any credit for decreased inflation, these people are going to change it. As much as I like Wikipedia, when it comes to people and issues like this, you really have to be careful.

Bill Maher Fails on Ahmed Mohamed

Ahmed MohamedI wasn’t planning on writing about Ahmed Mohamed – the 14 year old boy who got arrested for bringing a digital clock he had built to school. The reason was that I didn’t think it needed comment. I pretty much was that kid, although I didn’t get into this kind of stuff until I was in college. But I built pretty much the same thing outside of class when I was taking digital electronics. It’s a lot of work even if it doesn’t take a great deal of creativity — a fact that I’m sure Mohamed would agree with. But actually getting it to work is totally awesome! And I showed it to everyone, even though no one was as thrilled as I was.

So I totally get the kid. But it didn’t seem worth talking about him because of course everyone would see this as an obvious injustice. It’s like the dentist who killed the lion: everyone agrees so it is really meaningless. It would be like writing an article, “Everyone Is Right: Hitler Was a Bad Guy” or “Mothers Are Necessary for the Continuance of the Species.” But apparently, I was wrong to assume that everyone would be in agreement that the treatment of Mohamed was totally wrong. I hadn’t remembered that Bill Maher existed.

Heather at Crooks & Liars wrote, Bill Maher Justifies 14-Year-Old Being Arrested for Bringing Clock to School. And the video she provided (below) is amazingly vile. Maher is making the argument that this is not racism or even bigotry against Muslims because it just so happens that the last 30 years Muslims have been blowing stuff up. Maher seems totally unaware that bigots at all times and in all places had reasons for their bigotry. Southern segregationists were certain that African Americans were less intelligent and more violent. They had to be kept away from “our women folk.”

But it was worse than Maher. Mark Cuban made repeated mention of something nefarious supposedly going on because during his phone call with Mohamed, his sister was in the background giving him answers to questions. Now this means nothing, other than that maybe a 14 year old nerd isn’t the most media savvy, and mostly feels comfortable talking tech. And that might have something to do with why he wasn’t (by the standards of Mark Cuban) communicative enough with his teachers. But his comments blow apart Maher’s notion that Mohamed is owed an apology. Cuban is implying that there is something behind this all — maybe a test to see if the school was properly guarded against an attack that Mohamed’s sister plans in the future?!

Maher seems totally unaware that bigots at all times and in all places had reasons for their bigotry.

George Pataki was also there talking about “zero tolerance.” But they had already established that this never would have happened to a white kid. And the idea that this looks like a bomb is ridiculous. When I was a kid, my friends and I made bombs — although it might be more accurate to call them glorified firecrackers. But the thing about a bomb is that you need some material to explode. This was an empty case with a couple of circuit boards. If it “exploded,” the worst it would do is burn the hands of the person holding the box.

Heather pointed out something that gets to the very heart of this. She asked of the teachers and administrators, “If any of them actually believed that this kid brought a bomb to school, why wasn’t the school immediately evacuated?” And the answer is obvious: because none of them actually thought that. And rather than arresting Mohamed, why didn’t the police get a bomb expert while they simply detained the boy?

The problem here is exemplified with Maher, Cuban, and Pataki: they all find reasons to suspect a particular minority group. It wasn’t at all surprising that Jorges Ramos was the only one who made any sense. He has direct experience with the way the white majority makes up its own myths to justify its hatred of minority groups. History will not judge Maher as the brave truth teller he fancies himself on this issue. He will be seen as having a major blind spot about Muslims — kind of like Thomas Jefferson and slavery.

Anniversary Post: Checkers Speech

Nixon and CheckersOn this day in 1952, Richard Nixon gave his famous Checkers Speech. It stands out to me for the power of nonsense. It was about a special fund that was set up to pay for his expenses as a Senator. It doesn’t seem that he did anything wrong with regard to it. But it does strike me as rather typical Nixon — in the sleaziest sense. So he spent a half hour on television talking about it and the fact that he didn’t get any of the money or other special favors. But there was one thing he did get: a dog that his daughter named Checkers. He said, “Regardless of what they say about it, were gonna keep it.”

That’s a brilliant bit of political theater. Nixon was apparently unhappy that the speech had been named for that half minute bit. But that’s really all that anyone remembered: Nixon got a dog for his girls! The beginning of the speech is just him going over the allegations and defending himself. Then he gets into his finances and it is boring. That’s 18 minutes. Then there’s a good line about Pat not having a mink coat and the kids now having a dog. That’s just over a minute. Then we get ten minutes about how much Adlai Stevenson sucked. And he tops it off with an a capella rendition of “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” — or close enough.

What’s more remarkable about the speech is that it worked. Nixon actually tells the Checkers part of the story awkwardly and blows the punchline. But I think for most people it was: blah blah blah puppy blah blah blah. How could a man who got his daughters a dog be a crook? Of course, I continue to have a soft spot for Nixon precisely because he’s so awkward and seems so uncomfortable in his skin. Ultimately, I think he was a lost soul who thought that political power would give his life meaning. The Nixon we see in this speech is definitely the Nixon he thought the people wanted to see. And he was largely right.

Odds and Ends Vol 18

Odds and EndsRight now, my other job involves rewriting all the pages of an old website that was rather tedious in its prime. A lot of the work I do does not involve tech, but most of it does. And I have found that one thing tech writers most lack is a sense of narrative — the idea that they are telling a story. Trying to create a narrative by rewriting the pages from scratch is rather easy to do; trying to do it through editing is difficult indeed. So I thought I would take a break and quickly write an Odds and Ends.

Ironic Political Ad

After last week’s Republican presidential debate, most of the sane viewers laughed when Jeb Bush said, “There’s one thing I’ll tell you about my brother: he kept us safe!” I just assumed this would be forgotten by the next day, or at least that Jeb would try to bury it. But no! He made a political ad out of it:

Jeb Bush Ironic Political Ad

This is bizarre. Here is George W Bush, standing on the rubble of the worst foreign attack on American soil ever. It was an attack that happened while Bush was president. It was an attack that he did not keep us safe from. Is irony dead? Or are Republicans just that ignorant? Or are they just so convinced that they are “strong” that George Bush protecting us is axiomatic: George Bush protected us because he was a Republican and they protect us?

Chicken Hawk Dick Cheney

Speaking of Bush, I found this somewhere. It was probably over at Job’s Anger — but I’m not going to go over there and find the exact link — especially given I’m not sure. This does sum up Cheney. The thing is, Cheney and Trump are about the same in terms of doing whatever they want and feeling no culpability whatsoever. I do wonder if they aren’t both psychopaths — in the technical sense.

Dick Cheney: Chicken Hawk

Hats for Sale

This is an image from Esphyr Slobodkina’s excellent children’s book, Caps for Sale. I find it so charming now. But when I was a kid, I thought this odd little peddler with all those hats on his head was evil. Slobodkina wrote a sequel to the book that is not quite as good, but still very charming, Circus Caps for Sale. My friend Andrea tells me this style of image is an example of foreshortening. What that means is that all the perspective is screwed up. That’s something I’ve come to greatly admire as I’ve gotten older. Regardless, you should really check these books out. I’m sure they are in your local library. My library has 20 copies of the first book, but only four of the second.

Hats for Sale

Real Life Facebook

I don’t know where this came from, but it is very amusing. It shows how bizarre Facebook behavior is. I was having lunch with a friend of mine last week. She told me she had been feeling great, but then she went on Facebook and saw all the great things her “friends” were doing and got really depressed about her life. I thought that was interesting because this is a known phenomenon. I tried to explain that people don’t post the bad things that happen in their lives. It’s all about mythologizing what your life is. None of this made her feel better.

Real Life Facebook

That’s all for today kiddos. I’ve got to get back to the grind. Talk to you later!

The Recent Development of Public Religion

One Nation Under God: How Corporate America Invented Christian AmericaThis history reminds us that our public religion is, in large measure, an invention of the modern era. The ceremonies and symbols that breathe life into the belief that we are “one nation under God” were not, as many Americans believe, created alongside the nation itself. Their parentage stems not from founding fathers but from an era much closer to our own, the era of our own fathers and mothers, our grandfathers and grandmothers. This fact need not diminish their importance; fresh traditions can be more powerful than older ones adhered to out of habit. Nevertheless, we do violence to our past if we treat certain phrases — “one nation under God,” “In God We Trust” — as sacred texts handed down to us from the nation’s founding. Instead, we are better served if we understand these utterances for what they are: political slogans that speak not to the origins of our nation but to the specific point in its not-so-distant past. If they are to mean anything to us now, we should understand what they meant then.

—Keven Kruse
One Nation Under God: How Corporate America Invented Christian America

On a Very Bad No Good Donut Trend

Donut TrutherI have been desperate to find something non-political to write about. So I was thrilled to find this article by Phil Edwards, Have Donut Holes Gotten Smaller? This Compelling Vintage Chart Says Yes. But I guess I should be clear: we are no talking about “donut holes” — the delicious spherical pastry that is cheekily said to be the part missing from a regular donut. We are talking about the entire shape of the donut. In the image on the left, you will see that a donut looked more along the lines of a pretzel in surface to volume ratio in 1927, and more like a bagel just two decades later.

This is an important issue. Why? Because I’m not that fond of donuts. And this all comes back to the surface to volume ratio. I like more surface area. The less surface area in a sweet, the more gummy and the less delicious. One of the few Seinfeld episodes I’ve seen is “The Muffin Tops.” In it, Elaine opens a bakery that only sells muffin tops, because that is the best part. It’s true: that is the best part. But the episode made no sense because they were baking whole muffins and then throwing the rest of it away. But clearly: I am not alone in wanting a high surface to volume ratio in my sweets.

So why is this happening? No one really knows. People have their theories, of course. But in order to understand what is going on, you have to understand why donuts have holes in them at all. It’s all about even cooking. If they didn’t holes, there would just be a muck of uncooked dough in the center. Over time, as processes became better, the hole wasn’t as necessary. And I suspect that the manufacturers liked the idea that they could create more donuts in the same amount of space.

But I think the best bet for why donuts changed can be seen in the 1934 classic, It Happened One Night. In it, Peter (Clark Gable) shows Ellie (Claudette Colbert) how to dunk a donut in a cup of coffee. And it requires breaking the donut in half. So I suspect that it really all does come down to the way that donuts were consumed. As Edwards noted, “As donuts became a treat, their shape may have changed to accommodate that, making them less about holding coffee and more about holding sugar, jelly, and even chocolate.”

It’s also true that donuts themselves seem to have changed. Now they are less often the cake donuts of old and these weird “glazed” and “sugar” and “chocolate” donuts that don’t even taste good apart from their coverings. If you ask me, the best donut is the plain old fashioned. And you will noted of them that the holes are still quite big.

Afterword

Recently, I was buying some ice cream. I’m pretty picky about ice cream and usually stick to Häagen-Dazs or, when I can find a flavor that isn’t totally bizarre, Ben & Jerry’s. Well, I grabbed a pint of Dulce De Leche, but I noticed something. You see: I’m pretty blind and generally out of it when it comes to interacting with the real world. But my sense of touch is very great. And I noticed this “pint” was small. And sure enough, I looked on the label and it said “14 ounces.” What a con! Luckily, Ben & Jerry’s is still producing proper 16 ounce pints. So I purchased a pint of Americone Dream, which is delicious.

Why Some Always Want to Raise Fed Rate

Paul KrugmanOver the weekend, Dean Baker wrote, Fed Fails to Raise Rates in Timely Manner, End of the World Is Imminent. For normal people, hearing that the Federal Reserve didn’t raise interest rates last week would be like being told we weren’t invaded by space aliens: it hadn’t occurred to them that such a thing might have happened. But for economists and financial types, the last month was spent speculating whether the Fed would raise interest rates to head off inflation.

The weird thing about it is that it would have made no sense. Analysts have to turn themselves into intellectual contortionists in order to justify raising rates. But that didn’t mean that the Fed was not going to raise rates. There are always those who want the Fed to raise rates because they can make (even more) money from the move. But mostly, the argument is incredibly selfish for a certain class a people. Inflation is way below where even the Fed wants it — much less where I think it should be. But these people argue that we must raise rates because even the prospect of a little inflation is far worse than putting real people out of work.

Also this weekend, Paul Krugman wrote, The Creativity of the Permahawks. In this context, a “hawk” is someone who wants to raise interest rates — thus slowing the economy — because she is afraid of inflation or something. But a “permahawk” is someone who always wants to raise interest rates. And the point that he was making in the article is that the permahawks are very creative: they can always find a justification for why we absolutely have to raise interest rates now now now!

The thing is that all of these people were screaming about inflation back in 2010. And they kept saying it year after year. Well, now they just sound silly. So they can’t reasonably claim that unless the Fed raises interest rates, we are going to turn into Zimbabwe. But they always find some excuse to push for higher interest rates from the Fed. And this is so because they want higher interest rates because it benefits them — not because they are worried about inflation or financial vulnerabilities or anything else that they claim. It’s like Republicans running around claiming we must cut Social Security benefits because they are worried about its long-term finances, when they really just want to cut Social Security benefits because they want to destroy all of the New Deal and Great Society programs.

But Krugman brought up a great comparison. The truth is that the people who always and forever want to raise interest rates are treated seriously by economists and the media. This is the way, is it not? When people are spouting nonsense that will hurt workers, then it is Very Serious. But the same thing coming in support of workers is a very different matter:

Or put it this way: if, say, Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders were to invent whole new, dubious economic theories to justify the policies they clearly want for other reasons, everyone would be coming down on them hard for being flaky and irresponsible. Yet when the BIS [Bank for International Settlements] — which was, once again, dead wrong on inflation — does the same thing, it’s taken very seriously.

In another article, Krugman provided an analytical reason why it is that the finance types are always screaming for interest rate increases. It’s a bit technical, but it turns out that the lower the interest rate the the Fed sets, the smaller the difference between the the amount of money that banks borrow and lend at. Thus: low Fed rate means lower profits for banks.

None of this would probably matter if we lived in a democracy. But we don’t. Those of us who risk losing our jobs aren’t listened to at all. Those who own banks are listened to a great deal.

Anniversary Post: Mormon Religion

Joseph SmithOn this day in 1828, the 22 year old Joseph Smith was supposedly given the Golden plates by the Angel Moroni, effectively starting the Mormon Church. Given that it is the anniversary of this exciting day, I thought I would reprint some of what I wrote two years ago, Joseph Smith and the LDS Ossification. Unlike most of my fellow atheists, I try to take religion seriously and not just discard it as an irrational activity. Because here’s the secret: all human activity is irrational.

Was Joseph Smith a religious visionary or a charlatan? You know, I really think that he was both. And I think that’s true of most religious leaders. Of course, that’s the best way that I can put it. A less charitable person would say, he bought his own nonsense. I mean, his story is amazing with golden plates and the “seer stones” and all that. But I suspect that if he told the truth — he had a mystical or at least creative experience — no one would have cared. It probably didn’t hurt that he told men they could have multiple wives. (I’ve never quite gotten that myself; I always though one wife was too much; I’d be more into a wife that just spends Tuesdays with me.)

And that name! Could there be a more white bread name for a white bread religion? Why, yes; yes there could: John Smith. But still: it’s second in line. But you gotta give the man credit; he was continuing to expand the religion to the end. And if there is one thing that religious people don’t like it’s uncertainty. And that really did lead to his death. And like most of the founders of religions, death was a great career move. I doubt very seriously that the Mormon Church would have become the colossus that it is today without his untimely death.

There is no doubting that he is a very important figure in the history of the United States. In general, I would say he’s been a net harm. But I’m not sure that’s true during his lifetime. That period of spiritual awakening in America was authentic. It is sad to see how religions like the LDS and the JW have ossified into what they are today. Certainly their founders didn’t want that.

But it sure is powerful today. I mean that in a political and economic sense. I’m not sure it adds anything at all to the theological diversity of the world.

Scotty, I Hardly Knew Ye

Scott WalkerAccording to The New York Times, “Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin has concluded he no longer has a path to the Republican presidential nomination and plans to drop out of the 2016 campaign.” By the time you read this, he will have held his press conference and explained to the world that sadly, it is true: the Republican presidential contest will have to live without the bright light of his charisma. Oh, what will it do!

But who are we kidding here? This is a clear sign of the Republican Party establishment trying to take control of the presidential nominating contest. There are currently four candidates who are diluting the already anemic “establishment” vote. So I’m sure that the power brokers in the party went to him and said, “Kid, this ain’t your night — I mean, year.” And I suspect that the party promised him something like a top spot on the VP list. So if Rubio or Bush get the nod, don’t be surprised if Walker gets the backup spot.

It’s funny that the 2016 nominating contest is turning out to be a far bigger problem than the 2012 contest. Remember all the wringing of hands about how the “moderate” Romney was “forced” to take extreme positions — and how that ruined him for the general election? And then there was The Republican Autopsy Report, which said that the party kinda maybe shoulda not work so hard at alienating everyone outside its old bigoted white man base. But this year was going to be different with the “deep bench.” But it has turned out that the three top contenders for the nomination — the people who the base most like — are the people with literally no actual experience in politics.

So I suspect that the Republican power brokers really are freaking out. First it was thought that Trump would collapse after the first debate. He didn’t; he really took off after it. Then Bush was really going to destroy Trump in the second debate — or at least hold his own. Instead, he looked weaker than he ever has before. The big winner of the debate was Carly Fiorina — a candidate who is probably even worse for the party than Trump. The only glimmer of hope was that Marco Rubio did well as the Eagle Scout who will get tough with Russia, Iran, and most of all, Cuba.

I wonder if there isn’t pressure on Jeb Bush to exit the race. After all, that $100+ million that he raised is almost all in a super pac. If Bush left the race, it could be used to finance Rubio’s campaign.

I’m sure there is some pressure on John Kasich to get out of the race. I think that would be very shortsighted. In the end, he may be the only reasonable choice. But if the Republican establishment thought long-term about things, it wouldn’t be in the mess it now finds itself in. I wonder if there isn’t pressure on Jeb Bush to exit the race. After all, that $100+ million that he raised is almost all in a super pac. If Bush left the race, it could be used to finance Rubio’s campaign. Again: I think Rubio is a mistake, because I think that he ultimately comes off as very un-serious — like one of those Republican kids (eg, Jonathan Krohn) who is really good at repeating talking points, but who really doesn’t understand them.

But I suppose that I should come clean: I really thought that Walker would get the Republican nomination. That was based upon the fact that he was everything that the power elite wants. Even though I knew him to be a very boring fellow — like the Republican kids, but without any of the charm — I figured that he could finesse his way into the nomination. But I was so wrong! First, he apparently can’t finesse anything at all. Second, he was even more boring than I had thought before. He is not a man who wears well.

Overall, this is good news. It means I will likely never again have to hear about how he stood up to angry workers from inside his limo. But ultimately, I must admit: Scotty, I Hardly Knew Ye. Because there wasn’t much to know.


See also: Scott Walker Is a Follower and the Base Knows It.

Update (21 September 2015 3:41 pm)

According to USA Today, it’s even more explicit than I thought:

The one-time Iowa front-runner said he wants to help clear the field so that a “positive” conservative message can rise to the top.

“With this in mind I will suspend my campaign immediately,” he said at a press conference in Madison, Wisconsin

Walker also encouraged others in the 15-candidate field to do the same, in an apparent attempt to rally Republicans around an alternative to current front-runner Donald Trump.