Fred Hiatt and the Balanced Budget Myth

Fred Hiatt“Balanced budgets goood! Budget deficits baaad!” That’s a reference to Phil Hartman’s Frankenstein, which is itself a reference to Frankenstein (or perhaps more accurately Young Frankenstein). It implies a gut reaction to things — not a considered intellectual opinion. It’s great fun in the films and parodies, even if it is rather the opposite of what is going on in the book. But what bothers me is that supposed serious political analysts don’t usually have any more depth of thought, “Balanced budgets goood! Budget deficits baaad!”

That brings us to Fred Hiatt who is upset that the federal government isn’t balancing its budget, but he’s very happy about something, One Governor Bucking the Bipartisan Tradition of Passing the Buck. It is such a load of Villager idiocy that I’m not going to even go into it. It’s filled with the usual “Both sides do it!” nonsense, even though the Republicans are responsible for everything he’s actually complaining about in the budget that Congress just passed. He’s also on about “unaffordable pensions” for public sector workers. I wonder what Mr Hiatt would think if someone came in and told him the pension he negotiated with The Washington Post 34 years ago is “unaffordable” and will have to be cut.

Right now, the federal government can borrow money with 10-year treasury notes for 2.24%. The lowest this number ever was during the Clinton administration was 4.44%. And most of the time it was close to 6%.

What’s absurd is that Hiatt compares the state and federal governments as though they are comparable. States have to maintain more or less balanced budgets; governments with their own currency (like our federal government) do not. Given that, you might wonder why everyone makes such a big deal out of balanced budgets. And the truth is, the times when we ought to worry about them are exactly the times when people like Fred Hiatt don’t worry about them.

Think back to glory days of the late Clinton administration. We had a budget surplus! And everyone of Fred Hiatt’s caliber of analysis thinks it is because we cut spending and raised taxes. But that was a very small part of it. In fact, although these policy changes would have decreased the deficit, they wouldn’t have come close to balancing the budget. What did it was the roaring economy, which brought in loads more in taxes from people who didn’t only got jobs, they god raises for the only time in the last four decades.

Had we not had a surplus at that time, it would have been an excellent time to get one. Because that’s the only time it matters to have a balanced budget: when the economy is strong. The reason is because the economy is working at peak efficiency. Businesses want to borrow money to invest. If the government is also borrowing money, the cost of loans goes up. That’s really the whole story. Budget deficits are bad for the economy when there is great demand from the private sector for loans.

Is that the case now? No! Right now, the federal government can borrow money with 10-year treasury notes for 2.24%. The lowest this number ever was during the Clinton administration was 4.44%. And most of the time it was close to 6%. What this tells us is that the economy is performing poorly. The private sector is not interested in borrowing money. So if the government weren’t borrowing it, it would just be sitting there, doing nothing.

And that’s what Fred Hiatt wants. Dean Baker is always good at stabbing right at the heart of the matter, and his response was, Washington Post Editorial Page Editor Fred Hiatt Pushes for Higher Unemployment. That’s what’s so annoying about the way we talk about economics in this country. It’s all about budget deficits and interest rates. These all sound like no-brainers — or at least morally neutral. But for Very Serious People like Fred Hiatt, the policies they push just happen to always mean that regular Americans have static wages — when they have jobs at all.

See Also

Very Serious Conspiracy Theorists
Fred Hiatt’s Circuitous False Equivalence

Morning Music: Shel Silverstein

Shel SilversteinWill mentioned that I might want to look into the history of the song “Beans Taste Fine.” He thinks it goes way back, but as far as I can tell, it is just a Shel Silverstein original, off his 1962 album, Inside Folk Songs. But since I didn’t have a theme for this week’s Morning Music posts, I figured that was an excellent idea. I could easily do a month of Shel Silverstein.

He first came to my attention as the guy who wrote one of the greatest musical satires ever: “The Cover of Rolling Stone.” And so I want to start there, even though I knew other of his songs (without knowing they were his) before that. And I’ll probably go back to some of his earlier work. I also probably won’t stick to his songs. His poetry and prose are equally good.

So we start with “The Cover of Rolling Stone” performed by Dr Hook & the Medicine Show off their album Sloppy Seconds. They did a lot of Shel Silverstein songs. Their first album had the hit “Sylvia’s Mother” and the following album had “Roland the Roadie and Gertrude the Groupie.” They are an interesting group, because it still isn’t clear whether they were a rock band or a parody of a rock band.

Certainly their association with Shel Silverstein makes that case stronger. I think he was on record as not being that fond of the art form. But if you assume that a rock band is actually meant as comedy, it is not hard to convince yourself that they are hilarious. Think of The Beatles, going from the bubblegum of “I Want to Hold Your Hand” to the utter pretentiousness of “Eleanor Rigby” just two years later.

Anyway, here is the song. I’m presenting the album cut, because I really like the production. Live versions of it are distinctly lacking.

Anniversary Post: SGR 1806-20 Explosion

SGR 1806-20On this day in 2004, an explosion from SGR 1806-20 reached the earth. It is thought to be the largest explosion to be observed on the earth since a supernova was observed in 1604. SGR 1806-20 is neutron star with a particularly strong magnetic field. I have a certain fondness for neutron stars because the first paper I published involved a mathematical model of a neutron star. They are bizarre objects.

After a supernova, the star can experience a gravitational collapse — becoming small and unimaginably dense. For example, SGR 1806-20 is less than 20 km in diameter with a mass of over 12 times that of the Sun. Because all this mass is so compact, in order for angular momentum to be conserved, neutron stars spin very fast. In the case of SGR 1806-20, it rotates on its axis every 7.5 seconds.

The magnetic fields on neutron stars are enormous, but SGR 1806-20 is in a special category with even larger fields, magnetar. During the event that caused the 27 December 2004 observation, SGR 1806-20 released more energy in 0.1 seconds than the Sun does in 100,000 years. If SGR 1806-20 had been one of our closest neighboring stars, that one event would have killed all higher life forms on Earth. SGR 1806-20 is 50,000 light-years away. The closest magnetar to us is 9,000 light-years away. But that’s an evolutionary thing. If the Earth were close to such an object, advanced life would never have developed here.

Other people torture themselves thinking about terrorism. But I find this kind of stuff far more edifying. The universe is horrible. We really do exist on a particle of dust floating through space. We survive because of dumb luck. But at least it is cool. For example, if you took the entire human population and put them on the surface of a neutron star, they would be squeezed to the size of an aspirin. Where else but science do you learn things like that?

Crime Still Low but Police Continue Whining

Radley BalkoAt The Washington Post last week, Radley Balko wrote a great article, In the end, 2015 Saw No “War on Cops” and No “National Crime Wave.” As he noted, this was supposed to be because of all the supposed anti-cop rhetoric and so on. But the data are in and it shows that there is no spike in violence against the police. In fact, the numbers from this year continue the downward trend of police fatalities that started in the mid-1970s. It is safer to be a police offer than it has been in well over a century.

But think about that supposed anti-cop rhetoric. I don’t recall any anti-cop rhetoric. Every person of any power who was critical of policing always went far out of their way to say that most officers were great at their jobs. This is at best an exaggeration. But the fact that everyone felt the need to continue to lick the boots of law enforcement shows just how much power and inexplicable goodwill that people have for the police. It was only the police unions and other advocates who equated criticism of systemic problems and individual officers with attacks on the police generally.

As for crime, well, that too is down. We have some statistics via Law Enforcement Leaders to Reduce Crime (pdf). It is “a group of 150 of the country’s most prominent current and former police chiefs, sheriffs, district and state’s attorneys, US Attorneys, attorneys general, and other law enforcement leaders…” And they reported:

“Crime in the US is at an all-time low across the country, and we expect it to stay that way,” said Ronal Serpas, Chairman of Law Enforcement Leaders to Reduce Crime and Incarceration and the former New Orleans Police Superintendent. “Despite some misleading reports about a surge in crime rates, the data show just the opposite. In fact, as recent studies show, the overall crime rate will be lower this year than it was last year, and half of what it was in 1990. Some cities have seen a rise in murder, but these are isolated incidents — not a new crime wave — which local leaders are taking steps to address.

Remember back to why crime was supposedly spiking: police officers were not doing their jobs because they were vewy vewy awraid. So if crime had increased, wouldn’t that have been the fault of the police? Shouldn’t we have reacted badly toward them and not their critics? After all, don’t we have to sit through their royal-like funerals because their jobs are just so dangerous? Isn’t this why we must be now and forever on hands and knees licking their boots? I understand their whining; I’d hate to be a police officer. But I don’t see why the rest of us should put up with the whining. Policing is one of the few good-paying jobs left in America that someone can get with only a high school education.

Despite the fact that violent crime is low and getting lower, Americans think that it was up this year. I think we know why this is. The whining of police officers has an effect. But it’s strange that we put up with it. Would we ever accept teachers going around whining that students were really stupid and that’s why they weren’t doing their jobs? No, we’d tell them to shut up. But since it is the police, it’s somehow acceptable. So in addition to doing at best a mediocre job, the police are spreading lies and fear.

As Radley Balko concluded, “It’s one thing to give in to fear when crime really is on the rise. But it would be tragic if the opportunity we have today to reform laws was thwarted by [this] sort of fact-free fear.”

Stephen Glass and the Art of Forgiveness

Stephen GlassStephen Glass is back in the news. In the upcoming issue of Harper’s Magazine, they are running a letter from him and have issued a retraction about an article he wrote for them all the way back in 1998. For those who don’t know, Glass was a writer at New Republic in the mid to late 1990s. He was something of a star — publishing many remarkable and amusing stories. The problem was that he was just making stuff up — in some cases, entire articles. But it is coming up on two decades now and Glass is still running around making amends.

The article in question is, “Prophets and Losses.” In it, Glass supposedly went to work for a telephone psychic outfit. By the calculations of the Harper’s Magazine editors: “at least 5,647 of the 7,902 words… were based on fabrications.” That’s pretty amazing. At the same time, as a writer, I appreciate that he was actually writing. The question is whether such writing would have been published had it not been “true.” And the answer to that is pretty clearly that it wouldn’t have been. People accept much less interesting stories if they are supposedly true. Just look at The Blair Witch Project, which never would have been a hit without the cover story of it being real. It just isn’t that interesting and has a totally boring denouement.

The treatment of Stephen Glass is typical of the way we treat people who have made mistakes in the past. We are not a forgiving society.

But I still think it is pretty bad that Stephen Glass is still trying to piece his life back together. The same goes for Jayson Blair, although I don’t know what he’s up to. In Glass’ case, he’s trying to become a lawyer, but the state of California thinks he can’t be trusted to be a lawyer because of all the made-up stories he published. It’s kind of amusing really. I mean, a lawyer?! He wants to be part of a profession where creating plausible but false stories is critical.

Michael Hiltzik at The Los Angeles Times noted last week that there is much to dislike about Glass. In particular, “His imaginary characters are lower-class, often minority figures, depicted as credulous and uneducated, sometimes speaking in dialect.” But that brings up the broader issue of why it was that Stephen Glass was such a hot commodity while he lasted. As Hiltzik put it, “Glass played on his bosses’ prejudices…” So the question is: if his bosses at New Republic had such a classist take on the work, do we really think that the lawyers of California do not?

My interest is not in Stephen Glass. He’s from a privileged background. Even with all his baggage, and without license to practice law, he finds himself with the impressive sounding position at Director of Special Projects at a big-time law firm. But the treatment of him is typical of the way we treat people who have made mistakes in the past. We are not a forgiving society. There is a binary nature to our attitudes, where people are all good or all bad. And that just isn’t the case. People are all grey, as far as the eye can see.

But for most people without the resources of Stephen Glass, life is effectively over after a drug felony. These are the people who I fret over. And as a society, I think we really need to decide when we are going get over past wrongs. In Stephen Glass’ case, his great wrong was to embarrass a certain economic and intellectual class. I don’t defend what he did. But he’s hardly a murderer — and even they deserve some reconsideration over time. As a society, we need to learn the art of forgiveness.

Morning Music: Frank Sinatra

Frank SinatraPeople may find it strange, but I’m a big Frank Sinatra fan. There is no reason for it especially. He is mostly just a ripoff of Billie Holiday. But in his defense, he was very open about that. And there is nothing about his persona that I especially care for. In fact, it is usually when he is pushing against that image that I most like him. For example, check out his wonderful version of Send in the Clowns.

But since this is Christmas week, I figured we would listen to the holiday song that Frank Sinatra is most associated with, “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas.” The lyrics are really upbeat. The implication is that things are not great now, but they are looking up. The music, however, is not upbeat. That’s probably a function of it being originally a Judy Garland song. Coming from her, it seems like a pleasant lie that everyone is too polite to contradict.

It reminds of the Woody Allen short story “A Guide to Some of the Lesser Ballets,” where he writes of one of them, “The ballet opens at a carnival. There are refreshments and rides. Many people in gaily colored costumes dance and laugh, to the accompaniment of flutes and woodwinds, while the trombones play in a minor key to suggest that soon the refreshments will run out and everybody will be dead.”

Frank Sinatra’s version is different. It implies — like so much of his work — that he has seen too much to be upbeat or to think that things will really get better. He’s seen things in his life that have made him wise but sad. So he’s telling us all to make the best of a bad situation. And it’s not bad advice. As I’ve gotten older, I’ve become less tolerant of people who want to wallow in their own unhappiness. I know, I know: I hear the trombones too.

Anniversary Post: Gilbert and Sullivan

ThespisOn this day in 1871, the very first Gilbert and Sullivan production, Thespis, premiered. It was an “extravaganza.” The closest equivalent we have would be a revue: singing, dancing, and comedy more than a clear narrative. The production was savaged by the critics, but the writing was often admired. And it went on to run for three months, making it a modest success. Despite this, Gilbert and Sullivan didn’t work together again for four more years. What’s more, the opera was not saved. Only a couple of numbers survive.

I’m not a huge Gilbert and Sullivan fan. I admire them though. It’s just too much work to appreciate. And it does suffer from the Shakespeare disease. It has references to things that we don’t much understand anymore. And I think a lot of people affect a love of it when what they really love is the idea that they love it. But it’s still a good vehicle for Linda Ronstadt and Kevin Kline!

But I highlighted Gilbert and Sullivan because I really love the skit from That Mitchell and Webb Look. In it, the duo is unhappy about the failure of their last opera and decide to create HMS Pinafore 2 — the same story as the first one, but done in space. It turns out to be Star Trek. But the Victorian audience hates it, as well as their other modern ideas. Eventually, they find the secret, which is to give them a racist opera along the lines of The Mikado. It’s very funny.

Unfortunately, the owner of That Mitchell and Webb Look has cracked down on YouTube videos. So I’ve embedded the whole episode below. It starts at the first part of the skit. But you will have to watch the rest to see the other two parts. The truth is that the whole thing is worth watching. It was one of the greatest comedy shows ever.

Morning Music: Don Novello

Don Novello: One Hundred Bulbs On the Christmas Tree PartyI’ve saved the best song for Christmas itself! Another classic by Don Novello.

Back in 2006, Father Guido Sarducci released a Christmas album, One Hundred Bulbs on the Christmas Tree Party. He said at the time that he hated Christmas songs. And this had inspired him to write “the worst Christmas song ever” even though he realized that “the bar has been set high.” The song, “One Hundred Bulbs (on the Christmas Tree),” is based on what he calls the worst song ever written, “One Hundred Bottles of Beer on the Wall.”

Despite what you might think, it really is just the countdown of bulbs falling from the Christmas tree. But Novello has a commentary on top of it where he complains about various Christmas songs. He starts with “The Little Drummer Boy.” He has a theory that it wasn’t an angel who went to the kid, but the Devil. And the Devil did it just to get the kid to write the song to torture us all these years. It’s a good theory, and I would add to it that the Wikipedia article claiming that it only dates back to the 1950s is all part of the Devil’s evil plan.

Don Novello goes after a number of other songs. In discussing “Holly Jolly Christmas,” he says it is by “the man of the name Burl Ives — I’ll mention him by name!” After that, he engages in a surprisingly charming murder fantasy. Despite all the comedy — much of it hillarious — by the end of it, you do want to strangle the choir. But you should listen to all of the almost 15 minutes of the song. It will be a sign of you stamina and good health.

My Thoughts on the Original Star Wars

Star Wars: The Force AwakensI will not be seeing Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Part of that is just that I’m not that fond of seeing old actors doing big budget curtain calls. As it is, every time I see Harrison Ford, I think, “Have we really gotten that old?” When I saw him in Firewall, I thought he looked like he could use a walker. And that was almost ten years ago! But maybe I’d feel differently if I cared about any of the cast. Certainly, if Johnny Depp revisits Jack Sparrow in thirty years, I’ll be waiting in line. The truth is that I didn’t like the first Star Wars.

Let me be clear. I saw Star Wars on 4 July 1977 with a packed crowd at the Summerfield Cinemas in Santa Rosa. I remember it was July Fourth because someone threw a fire cracker at the screen when the bad guys blew up the planet. And I didn’t dislike it. I just didn’t see what the big deal was. It’s an action film set in space with stock characters. Darth Vader is easily as silly as Robot on Lost in Space, without the saving grace of it being camp. The only character I thought was cool was (despite the name) Obi-Wan Kenobi, and he gets offed in the second reel.

In my discussions with people who are fans of the franchise, it is clear why they like it: because they do. It struck something ineffable in them when they were in their tweens or teens. And I appreciate that. I wish it had been similarly magical for me. If I had not been such a pretentious intellectual in training, maybe it would have done it for me. Certainly, Close Encounters of the Third Kind was more up my alley. But that one didn’t do much more for me either. If there was any film that captured my imagination as a tween, it was Jaws. And I’m pleased to report that it really is an excellent film.

This explains why Star Wars fans have been more and more disappointed with the franchise as it has gone on. The problem isn’t the films; it’s that the viewers are no longer 13 years old. It’s the same way that Star Trek will never be quite as good as the original, despite the fact that nothing that came later will be as silly as “guy in a reptile suit” in “Arena” or the space hippies in “The Way to Eden.” Hold on. We’ve really got to watch Kirk fight Gorn. It’s funny that Gorn never thinks to use his teeth:

But I can see why Star Wars: The Force Awakens is such a big deal to people. It’s a way of revisiting the past in a way that is new but the same. From what I hear, the film is largely a remake of the original. And that’s just fine. People are allowed that. Just the same, it’s not like Hollywood does much more than give people retreads of old things. It reminds me of myself when I’m doing anniversary posts and can’t find anything interesting to write. I go back and look at what I wrote before. But that seems to be step one for Hollywood.

I hope all you Star Wars fans out there enjoy this. Really, if I could get in on the adoration, I would. But I didn’t even manage to drag myself to see the second Star Wars film; I’m certainly not going to watch the seventh.

Matt Bevin’s Christmas Gifts for Kentucky!

Matt BevinAlice Ollstein at Think Progress reported that just in time for Christmas, Newly Elected Governor Strips 140,000 of Voting Rights, Lowers the Minimum Wage. Yes, everyone’s favorite red state governor Matt Bevin decided to reverse the executive actions of the previous governor, Steve Beshear, that allowed non-violent ex-felons to vote and government workers to have something approaching a living wage. Merry Christmas!

Of course, Matt Bevin doesn’t want to disenfranchise all these men and women. He said that “it is an issue that must be addressed through the legislature and by the will of the people.” And you should believe it to the extent that you believe a pathological liar. Politicians never claim to be against any popular legislation that they overturn or otherwise sabotage. It is always something along the lines of, “I would love to support this legislation, there is just this one problem…” And if that one problem is eliminated, they always find another “one problem” that prevents them from supporting that legislation that they otherwise love.

“Studies have found that ex-felons who have their voting rights restored feel more invested in their communities and are less likely to end up back in the criminal justice system.” —Alice Ollstein

Earlier this year I discussed the status of the states regarding this, Felons and Voting Rights. Kentucky — along with Florida, Iowa, and Virginia — are what I called the “completely vile” states where “you have to file an individual petition and get a pardon from the governor.” Think about that. Republicans, who go on and on about efficiency, think that the state should have to go over every one of those 140,000 before they get the right to vote. That’s over 3% of the population. And according to Think Progress, “As a result, one in five African Americans in the state are disenfranchised.” Know this: if the legislature did send him such a bill, he would find a reason to veto it.

Of course, none of this is an accident. Michelle Alexander talked about this, The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness. Going away to jail for even ten years is not the big deal. It is that you are labeled for the rest of your life. Look at the way we talk about this issue: 140,000 felons. Not ex-felons. And this is part of the idea that a felon should never be allowed to vote again. As Think Progress noted, “Studies have found that ex-felons who have their voting rights restored feel more invested in their communities and are less likely to end up back in the criminal justice system.”

Matt Bevin didn’t just ruin the Christmas of ex-offenders, of course. He also reduced the minimum wage for state workers and contractors from $10.10 per hour to $7.25. Ho ho ho! Merry Christmas! He stated, “Wage rates ideally would be established by the demands of the labor market instead of being set by the government.” That’s your typical conservative claim that the market is perfect and if the government would just get out of the way, everyone would have jobs and own their own homes with picket fences and Barbara Billingsley waiting with a martini. They’ve never heard of monopsony.

But it wasn’t all bad news! Matt Bevin saw to it that someone got good news for Christmas. And that someone was Kentucky clerk Kim Davis. She’s wanted clerk names removed from marriage licenses because God don’t like them gays but she sure likes her job. So Bevin saw to it that Kim Davis and the other bigots like her can have a happy Christmas knowing that they are complicit in helping to establish equal rights.

This just in: Matt Bevin seen stealing Tiny Tim’s crutch so he can sell it and provide tax cuts for squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous, old rich people.

Morning Music: Burl Ives Shrugged

A Holly Jolly Christmas - Burl IvesWho is Burl Ives? When he says that we should have a Holly Jolly Christmas, is he a destroyer or a liberator? Why does he have to sing his songs not against his enemies but against those who need them most? Why does he sing his hardest battle against the woman he loves?

You will know the answer to these questions when you discover the reason behind the baffling song that plays each Christmas in the lives of the amazing men and women at this blog. You will discover why a musical genius becomes a worthless playboy… why a great folk singer is working for his own destruction… why a composer gives up his career on the night of his triumph… why a beautiful woman who produces children’s Christmas specials falls in love with the man she has sworn to replace with Paul Soles.

Anniversary Post: DC Home Rule

Washington, DC SealOn this day in 1973, Richard Nixon signed the District of Columbia Home Rule Act. This gave the residents of DC the right to elect some of their own local government officials. In particular, this law allowed them to elect a mayor and a “city” council. It’s kind of amazing to think that it wasn’t until this late that they got this right.

But the truth is that Congress continues to mess with the people of DC. The idea of creating DC was to de-politicize it. But at this point, Congress is the one who politicizes the district. I think it is completely unfair and it should change. DC will never have home rule as long as it isn’t granted statehood. But that isn’t going to happen. DC is overwhelmingly Democratic, and the Republicans would never allow the Democrats to have two more Senate seats, even though the Senate is weighted heavily in the Republicans’ favor.

If DC became a state, it would be the third smallest by population — just larger than Vermont and Wyoming. So there isn’t a lot of reason why we should keep DC in their weird limbo where Congress can abuse it in the name of “sending a message” to the folks back home. Of course, before we make DC a state, we should make Puerto Rico a state. The fact that it isn’t is an outrage. But again: we can’t allow states that might vote Democratic. We really do need to destroy the Republican Party before it destroys the nation.