About Frank Moraes

Frank Moraes is a freelance writer and editor online and in print. He is educated as a scientist with a PhD in Atmospheric Physics. He has worked in climate science, remote sensing, throughout the computer industry, and as a college physics instructor. Find out more at About Frank Moraes.

Still Indications of Intrade Gaming

How to Steal an ElectionAbout two weeks ago, I wrote about how it seemed that Intrade was being gamed by Republicans. The Intrade Exchange Operations Manager, Carl Wolfenden, commented that I was wrong about a particular trade that had looked fishy. It turned out to be a statistical fluke that worked itself out. Still, I had questions.

And I still do.

Right now, Intrade gives President Obama a 65.0% chance of re-election. This is much lower than the polls would indicate. But more important, this is significantly less than the other betting markets. PredictWise reports that Betfair gives Obama a 77.8% change of re-election. And further, IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) gives Obama a 77.3% chance of winning the popular vote (which polls suggest he should have a smaller chance of winning).

What is going on here? Intrade gives Obama 12 percentage points less a chance of winning re-election than the other betting markets. This just doesn’t make sense. If it were the case that betters at Intrade knew something that others don’t know, they could make more money by moving to Betfair or IEM.

Again I ask: are Republicans gaming Intrade?

Update (6 November 2012 8:37 am)

Intrade has moved a lot since I wrote this. They are now giving Obama a 72.5% chance of winning—much closer to the other firms.

Obama Calls for Reparations

The OnionAccording to the ONION, President Obama has made a major announcement, This May Not Be The Ideal Moment Politically, But It’s Time To Talk Reparations.

It’s a funny OpEd. The President does not bring the issue up lightly, but he isn’t going to lie, either:

Now, Americans have grown accustomed to hearing a lot about jobs, Medicare, and national security in recent months, so I can understand that it will be confusing when I suddenly begin to speak exclusively about making up for this country’s past mistakes by exempting black people from paying all taxes. I know that using the last few days of my campaign to push for a comprehensive reparations plan will, at best, alienate voters and, at worst, incite frustration, disgust, and outright contempt toward me—not to mention irreversibly recast my presidential legacy.

This brings up an obvious question: how many conservatives will tweet and email this articles to friends and family. “Can you believe what Obama is doing!?” We may even get some blog posts. Like the ONION‘s Obama, I am serious about this. The problem is that the ONION has too perfectly created the Obama that conservatives think is real.

It’s sad, but it could be damn amusing!

Doctor Faustus

Doctor FaustusI first heard this line applied to Doctor Faustus: “It has a beginning, a muddle, and an end.” The truth is that this could describe most of drama, but it does seem very fitting for Christopher Marlowe’s play. It has a fundamental problem that is nonetheless repeated constantly: there aren’t a lot of third acts to follow a first act when the protagonist sells his soul to the devil.

Ever since Goethe, writers have tried to find a clever way to get the hero out of his deal. In Goethe’s case, it turned out to be a syntactic trick and no one that I’m aware of has much improved on this. Marlowe at least has the good taste to treat Faustus as a tragic character with no way out. But even in this case, Doctor Faustus seems more like an essay than a play: tell the audience what you’re going to tell them, tell them, and tell them what you told them. Boring.

For the past year, I’ve been working on my own Faustian play, but at least I have the good sense to make Mephistopheles the star, rather than Faustus. He’s the interesting character, because he’s the guy who gets to watch Faustus make the same mistake that he has observed (and probably also committed). This is explicitly in the original play:

Why this is hell, nor am I out of it.
Think’st thou that I who saw the face of God
And tasted the eternal joys of heaven
Am not tormented with ten thousand hells
In being deprived of everlasting bliss?
O Faustus, leave these frivolous demands
What strikes a terror to my fainting soul!

In other words, Faustus is an idiot. And thus the play is about an idiot who makes a choice, delays the choice for the second act, and then suffers for the choice in the third act. This, more than anything, is why the play is so rarely done. People love the idea and the dialog, yet it is always and forever unfulfilling.

And yet, I do love it. It is clearly the play of a very smart and erudite man. And it is hard for any intellectually inclined person to no see it as a metaphor for his own search for knowledge. The only filmed version of it is the tedious Richard Burton production. It does have one shining aspect: Andreas Teuber’s performance as Mephistopheles. It somehow makes sense that Teuber went on to be a professor of philosophy at Brandeis University. Unfortunately, all I can find of the film online is the most famous scene, “Is this the face that launched a thousand ships”:

If you are interested, here is the whole play (as much as these things ever are) that was filmed. It is directed by Jeremy Cole.

White Guy Reporters Claim White Guy America

Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen - White Guy DemographicThis is shocking. But maybe it shouldn’t be. Politico is a pathetic publication.

Digby (who either reads 3000 words per minute or has some kind of magical power) directed me to Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen’s new article, Lessons learned from 2012. Not everything they have to say is wrong, much less shocking. They note that the Republicans really need to start running more reasonable candidates. The Tea Party types may make the base feel good, but they scare away everyone else. That’s true, but hardly the kind of “first to publish this stuff” material that Politico is known for (and the main reason they suck so much of the time).

They also note that “white men” is not enough of a coalition in a two party system. But I guess this is supposed to mean that Obama too doesn’t represent the country. They write:

If President Barack Obama wins, he will be the popular choice of Hispanics, African-Americans, single women and highly educated urban whites. That’s what the polling has consistently shown in the final days of the campaign. It looks more likely than not that he will lose independents, and it’s possible he will get a lower percentage of white voters than George W. Bush got of Hispanic voters in 2000.

A broad mandate this is not.

Currently, white men make up 36% of the electorate and Obama is likely to win about a third of them. I don’t see how doing poorly with one demographic group that is shrinking means that Obama does not have a broad mandate. But maybe there is something else going on here.

Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen are two white male reporters. I think that perhaps their white maleness is causing them to over-value their own demographic group.

Luxembourg: You’re Next

All the Countries We've Ever InvadedBritain launched their first recorded invasion at the end of second century as part of a Roman campaign against what is today France. This was the start of a pattern: Britain has invaded France more than any other country. This is all the more impressive when you consider that Britain has invaded more countries than any other. According to Stuart Laycock in his book, All the Countries We’ve Ever Invaded: And the Few We Never Got Round To, at one time or another, Britain has invaded every country but 22.

An article on this little factoid appears in this morning’s The Telegraph in a cheekily titled article, British have invaded nine out of ten countries—so look out Luxembourg. Some of the other countries who have avoided British incursions are Guatemala, Tajikistan and the Marshall Islands. There are other countries where Laycock has given Britain the benefit of the doubt. For example, Mongolia may have been invaded. The British definitely got within 50 miles of the country, but he couldn’t confirm that they actually went into it.

Britain isn’t the only country with such a record. France has also invaded a great many countries. Part of this is just history. When Rome had their empire, much of the world was unknown. It is hard to invade Costa Rica (as has Britain) if you don’t know it exists. And other countries are too young to have racked up too long a list. But they try:

Other countries could write similar books—but they would be much shorter. I don’t think anyone could match this, although the Americans had a later start and have been working hard on it in the twentieth century.

Of course, we don’t use the term “invade”; we prefer “spread democracy.”

But if England invades Luxembourg, you’ll know what’s going on. People should finish what they start.

Chicago Bubble Economics

The Redistribution Recession: How Labor Market Distortions Contracted the EconomyCasey Mulligan has a new book out, The Redistribution Recession: How Labor Market Distortions Contracted the Economy. It is another attempt by a “Chicago Bubble” economist to explain that we shouldn’t pay attention to any of the economic data about this recession. You see, Mulligan has a model so perfect that it can make economics transcend reality.

Earlier this week, he wrote an article on the New York Times Economix Blog, A Keynesian Blind Spot. Basically, it is Mulligan’s attack on Paul Krugman’s very good End This Depression Now! which I’ve written about before. His argument: great unemployment and food stamp benefits have made workers lazy. And more: knowing that great unemployment and food stamp benefits were available, caused Job Creators to lay off people and then not to hire people again.

I swear I am not making this up. Go and read his article. As I said, Mulligan is a “Chicago Bubble” economist. These guys are less connected to the real world than Franciscan monks. They have their models and their ideology and they don’t need anything more. Unfortunately, no one has yet gotten them to take vows of silence.

Rather than discus Mulligan myself, let me present to you a few of the many excellent comments on the blog. First up is Doctor Gonzo:

Again, Mr Mulligan, where are these jobs that the unemployed are supposed to be filling? At one point I believe there were 6 unemployed people for every job opening: was this because of too generous unemployment benefits?

I especially don’t get the argument that food stamps, unemployment benefits, etc. took away the incentives for employers to create jobs. Last time I checked, employers don’t say to themselves, “Hey, look at how stingy unemployment benefits are for the unemployed; let’s create some jobs for them out of the goodness of [our hearts]!” They say, “Hey, I have more customers and more [orders] than before, let’s hire more people.” Without money to purchase those… orders, nobody is hiring. When consumers can’t order widgets, and the government can at zero interest rates, why not have the government order them? Then businesses will actually hire!

If only people had their unemployment run out after just 6 months. Then, after losing their house of course, they could fill a job as an apple-seller on the street corner!

Ross Williams:

The unemployment figures show more workers looking for work, not fewer. Fewer had jobs because employers were hiring fewer workers. I don’t understand how food stamps would cause employers to stop hiring. To the contrary, you would think it would encourage grocery stores and food producers to hire more workers.

The increase use of social programs was a result of unemployment not its cause. This is just more silly ideology.

This one by Stan gets at a typical bit of conservative economic hypocrisy. Liberals never claim that tax cuts on the rich don’t stimulate the economy—only that such incentives are not as effective as others. But conservatives really do claim that tax cuts for the rich grow the economy but spending on social programs do not. It’s amazing.

Let me get this straight—giving poor people more money reduces their incentives to work, but giving rich people more increases their incentives. Therefore we’ll get more work done by cutting Medicaid and food stamps AND by eliminating taxes on dividends, capital gains, and inheritances.

Is this a parody? How did this guy ever get through graduate school?

And finally, Larry:

This reminds me of the apocryphal French professor who says, “Yes, it works in fact… but the important thing is, does it work in theory?” This is an article by someone who is totally wrapped up in economic theory and has no knowledge of facts.

In a country like Switzerland, where unemployment benefits pay 80% of your previous salary (up to a certain cap) for two years, it may be true that some people do not rush to get back to work. But in the US or other countries where benefits do not pay enough for a person to get by? Forget it. This theory would only be true if you include begging, robbery, selling drugs and prostitution as employment, because those are the only alternatives that many unemployed people would have nowadays if there were no social support network.

The Chicago economists have to break out of their bubble. If they do that, they might find they have something to offer society. Until then, it is just ideology—not science.

More Thomas Friedman Bullshit

Thomas Friedman - Artist's ConceptionI know that Thomas Friedman doesn’t exist just to piss me off, because he pisses a lot of other people off too. But at the moment, I’m feeling persecuted, because I was tricked into reading his most recent column. It is all Matt Yglesias’ fault. He tweeted, “Everyone is going to hate this Tom Friedman column, but once again he’s basically right.” Yglesias is a smart guy, so I thought I’d check out the column to see if Friedman is “basically right.” No, he isn’t. In fact, he is just giving us the same line that he always does.

Thomas Friedman, like most Serious Centrists, is above ideology. He just wants to fix problems. Sure, he can see that the Republicans have gone on tilt. But that doesn’t mean the Democrats don’t have their own problems. This always reminds me of someone in 1969 watching the Cuyahoga River on fire and saying, “This is bad, but the nitrogen levels are elevated in the American River; let’s not forget that!” Balance!

Today, Friedman tells us that if Obama wins re-election, this will cause the Republican Party to reevaluate and move to the center. Okay. That’s fine. Friedman is a naive man with no understanding of psychology or sociology, but that doesn’t make him evil. If the Republicans lose the presidencies, they will (1) blame it on Mitt Romney being a moderate; and (2) become even more extreme.

In the longer term, there may be something to what Friedman says. If the Republicans do not do very well in the 2014 midterms, then the party will likely start to moderate to some degree. But even then, it is not going to be a sudden lurch to the middle. It will be a slow process that will work from the more liberal areas out. Eventually, we may see a more reasonable center right party. But to think that this will happen in the next couple of years is ridiculous.

But it isn’t when talking about the Republican Party that Friedman is most off the mark. He can’t talk about this stuff without blasting the Democratic Party over supposed entitlement reform. For Friedman, this means screwing the poor and middle classes. He seems never to have heard of the idea of eliminating the Social Security cap. Mustn’t harm the rich! Instead it is: cut and delay benefits. Friedman is like a personal trainer who only thinks you are exercising if you are in great pain.

What is most annoying about Friedman and what is very much on display today is his hubris. Somehow, because he talks to taxi drivers, he thinks he has his fingers on the pulse of America. And this causes him to make ridiculous, untrue proclamations about what the common man wants:

A truly center-right G.O.P. would force the Democrats to have their own civil war—the center-left versus the rest—largely over tax/entitlement reform and defense spending. Obama has never fully tested where the Democratic base is on these issues, but that’s coming. The Democratic civil war will encompass fewer issues than the G.O.P.’s, but it will be intense and unavoidable—if we are to forge the Grand Bargains that America’s center-right/center-left majority clearly wants and the country clearly needs.

I like the idea that Obama has never tested his base. The truth is that the liberal base of the Democratic Party has been constantly tested. Labor unions, for example, has continued to be loyal partisans even while the Obama administration has done nothing for them. Liberals got Republican healthcare “reform” that they hate. On immigration, drug policy, and taxes, liberals have gotten nothing or worse. A man delusional enough to think that “moderate” means pro-gay marriage economic extremism is certainly delusional enough to think that liberals have gotten everything (Or anything!) they wanted. But few others would.

The real belly laughing aspect of that quote is that America wants and needs a Grand Bargain. Americans don’t care about the debt. Unless they are specifically asked about it, they rarely mention it as a concern. As for what we need: it is more deficit spending. We need to stimulate the economy. What we don’t need is more rich idiot blowhards like Thomas Friedman explaining to us what we really want.

Update (4 November 2012 8:43)

After writing this article yesterday, I wrote to Dean Baker who has been very gracious about responding to my questions:

As you noted Friday, Brooks was calling for cuts to SS and Medicare. On Saturday, Friedman is saying the Republicans will moderate and force the Democrats to make the Grand Bargain (as if Obama isn’t already hot to do so).

I know you focus on reducing medical costs to deal with the budget and that’s huge. But I can see that the likes of Brooks and Friedman wouldn’t see that as practical in the near future. Why do they never mention eliminating the SS tax cap? Am I wrong to think it a good idea? (I realize it would be a BIG tax increase on the wealthy.)

He doesn’t pull any punches in his responses:

They don’t want to tax rich people. And yes, it is a good idea—or at least raising the cap is a good idea.

This morning, Dean Baker wrote about the Friedman column:

Clearly Friedman is very confused about the shape of the American political spectrum. He repeatedly refers to the plan put forward by Morgan Stanley director Erskine Bowles and former Senator Alan Simpson to cut Social Security and Medicare for middle class retirees “centrist.” In fact, polls consistently show that the vast majority of people across the political spectrum strongly oppose cuts to these programs. The Bowles-Simpson cuts only seem to enjoy support from a small group of elites in political and financial circles. That does not make them centrist.

Hahn Winery 2011 Pinot Noir

Hahn Winery 2011 Pinot NoirI am no expert on wine. I just enjoy it. Unlike most things in my life, I have never tried to learn about wine and what makes it good. But I’ve drunk enough of the stuff to form some opinions. And my newest opinion is that Hahn Winery‘s 2011 Pinot Noir is a really good wine and a great price.

What I know about wine is that there are a lot of different flavors in it—in a good one anyway. Often times (and this seems to be the case with wines that are supposed to be rather good), these tastes are very distinct. In my introverted, not all that in touch with my body way, I think of the flavors as occurring in different parts of my head. I don’t really like this. I find it upsetting.

A wine can also have all of those flavors mix together. This doesn’t mean that they make a kind of mush—like a bunch of colors mixed together to make brown. The flavors are instead linked together: they overlap like tropical fish in a small tank. This is find exhilarating. And this describes the Hahn 2011 Pinot Noir.

I wish I could tell you that it has a hint of this and an underlying that. But I can’t. When I cook, I often have to smell each of the spices before I can figure out what I need. It is “fruity” but then that’s kind of what defines a pinto noir, and is the main reason I like the grape. But there are at least 5 other distinct flavors—all linked together, swimming around in my head. So there you go.

I got this bottle on sale for $10. This is the price I normally pay from very drinkable Castle Rock Pinto Noirs of the last few years. But Hahn’s 2011 Pinto Noir is far better. I must see if I can get more.

David Frum: Reward Misbehavior

David Frum“When President Obama took office in January 2009 the US was plunging downward into the worst recession since World War II. By summer 2009, the US had begun a weak but real recovery, which at last seems to be accelerating into an expansion that more and more Americans can feel.

“President Obama gave the order that killed Osama bin Laden. He ended the war in Iraq on acceptable terms. He is enforcing tightening sanctions against Iran, inspiring hopes of a peaceful end to that country’s nuclear program.

“Meanwhile, his opponents in Congress have behaved about as badly and irresponsibly as any opposition group…”

That’s how the liberal’s favorite conservative David Frum starts his endorse of… Mitt Romney! So why, after all of the good Obama has done and all the bad the Republicans have done is Frum voting for Mitt Romney? If we don’t, his party members in Congress will destroy the United States:

The question over [Romney’s] head is not a question about him at all. It’s a question about his party—and that question is the same whether Romney wins or loses. The congressional Republicans have shown themselves a destructive and irrational force in American politics. But we won’t reform the congressional GOP by re-electing President Obama. If anything, an Obama re-election will not only aggravate the extremism of the congressional GOP, but also empower them: an Obama re-election raises the odds in favor of big sixth-year sweep for the congressional GOP—and very possibly a seventh-year impeachment.

Jonathan Chait notes that David Frum joked about this less than a year ago:

Frum isn’t alone in this. Pretty much every Romney endorsement from a “reasonable” source was the same. This is exactly what Paul Krugman wrote about on Friday. It is a very dangerous idea that we should elect a Republican President because that is the only way to make the Republicans in Congress behave. And this kind of logic is all the worse when it comes to supposedly reasonable conservatives like David Frum.

Update (3 November 2012 1:03 pm)

Jonathan Chait also talks about how the same thing was said when Bush Jr was running. It turned out to be sort of truth: Republicans did stop blocking legislation. But what was that legislation?

But Romney is making promises to the center his base does not want or expect him to fulfill. And that is the downside of his true-but-outrageous argument about the crazy House Republicans. The way he will get them to stop launching kamikaze attacks on the economy and the system of government is to give them what they want, just as Bush did.