There were certain liberal commentators during the first decade of this millennium who really pushed the idea that George W. Bush was smart. I tended to side with them—at least against those who said that Bush was stupid. It is clear that Bush was not stupid. But over time, I began to see that Bush was not smart. He was wily. I think that’s clear: wily, but truly smart—in the sense that I am (which is not saying that much)—no.

Watching the HBO produced movie Recount, makes me think this is more generally true of Republicans. There was no new information in the film; I know the story. But it shows it from the inside and by all accounts (especially those of Republicans), it is accurate. And what you see are a bunch of Democrats working in good faith and a bunch of Republicans gaming the system: anything to win. Nowhere is this more clear than in the Brooks Brothers riot.

Look: I understand. If you have no real grassroots support, you pretend. I understand that the Tea Party is 90% AstroTurf. Liberal groups start with no financing and no cheer leading from major media outlets. Conservative groups need a lot of help. I accept that. But to hire operatives to pretend to be protesters, that’s not acceptable. That makes ratfucking seem quaint.

At one point in the film, Ron Klain (played by Kevin Spacey) says, “I’d just like to know who won this fucking election!” This is not a question that the Republicans are asking. I think this is because the Republicans already know. There’s a reason that the Republicans put 20,000 non-felons on their list of felons who cannot vote. This is why the Republican Party is pushing to overturn the Voting Rights Act. And in the film, this is why the Democrats are thrilled at a state-wide recount and the Republicans are not. Republicans know—and there is no doubt of this—that when a lot of people vote, they lose. What’s more: if all the people voted, they would always lose—and lose big.

It is depressing to get dragged through this whole thing again. But most of all, it just reminds me of what might have been. I wasn’t a big Gore fan then and I’m not now. But can anyone question that we would be in a better position now if Gore had been made president as the actual votes in Florida indicated? It is possible that there would have been no 9/11. I don’t say this because I think so highly of Gore, but there is no question that his staff took the threat of terrorism seriously. We also wouldn’t have had the huge tax cuts. We would not have had the huge corporate giveaway that is Medicare Part D. And most of all, we would not have had the Iraq War.

But even more, the 2000 Supreme-Court-decided election did this: it proved that we only have a democracy if we fight for it, because one of our major political parties is completely against it.

Afterword

There is one critical point in the movie where Joe Lieberman breaks ranks on the counting of overseas ballots. I think a strong case can be made that this was really what lost Gore the election. Regardless, it is typical Lieberman. Lawrence O’Donnell often makes the case that Democrats in red states should be cut some slack. He specifically refers to Ben Nelson of Nebraska. But this doesn’t follow for Lieberman. He comes from a blue state. He is simply the kind of guy you don’t want on your team. Regardless of the good he does, it is outweighed by his gross incompetence and inconsistent policy positions.

I love this clip from All the President’s Men. It seems to sum up so much, “The truth is, these are not very bright guys.” Deep Throat says this about the Nixon White House, but this last few weeks I’ve thought it applied equally well to the Obama White House:

I think this can generally be said about the world. My experience in life is that nothing is that hard to understand. If it seems so, you have a bad teacher. But more to the point, when I was younger, I used to think that the people who ran political campaigns must be really smart. This isn’t the case. Commentators seem shocked when a campaign does something stupid. But they shouldn’t be. The campaigns are staffed by ordinary people doing the best job they can. Campaigns are messy with lots of crises. Is anyone fooled into thinking that James Carville is brilliant? “It’s the economy, stupid”? So Carville had learned the most basic finding of political science. He must be a genius!

In the case of the Obama White House, I know everyone is smart. But they aren’t that smart. If they were, they wouldn’t be relying on Republican missteps to save them.

“Forget the myths that the media’s created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys.”

I have a special fondness for French comedies. They tend not to take their stories too seriously. No great effort is made to create a dramatic plot. You’ve got a boy and a girl. They try to get together, but there are problems. This is what is funny. They work out the problems without too much angst. And they kiss. Curtain.

Last night, after spending hours and hours fuming over Washington politics, I brought in the new year with a delightful comedy: Romantics Anonymous, or Les Emotifs Anonymes. It tells the story of two social misfits, Angelique and Jean-Rene. She goes to a support group for what is translated as “emotional” people. Better would be “anxious” or “socially awkward” or just “shy.” Jean-Rene ought to go to this group, but he has a private therapist instead. Most of the comedy revolves around Jean-Rene’s repeated freak-outs in his attempts to woo the obviously eager Angelique.

There is much more to the film. It all revolves around chocolate manufacture, for example. But mostly, the two main characters are just so adorable, you can’t help but enjoy being in their presence for an hour and a half. I wish I had more to say, but it really comes down to this: it made me happy, and damn little does these days.

Here is the trailer, which gives a very good idea of the film:

Afterword

Netflix recommended the film to me based upon three other films. The first was Charade. I can see that to an extent. The second was the TV series Better Off Ted. That’s kind of a stretch, but I kind of see it. The third was Moon. I have no idea how that fits. I like all of these films a great deal of course. But the connections are tenuous.

For the record, the Senate Fiscal Cliff deal is worse than indicated early yesterday. It doesn’t raise capital gains tax rates as high as thought: only up to 20% and only on incomes above $450,000. It does not tax dividends as regular income. The estate tax was not raised as high as it should have been, thanks largely to fucktard Democrats. The sequester will only be delayed for two months; what’s the point? Doctors get more money, but the payroll tax holiday is ended. As I wrote this morning, this is very bad. And we get a 9-month farm bill. Nine months?!

It isn’t horrible. But again: this is all we get when the Democrats hold all the cards. Just wait for a month or two when the Republicans hold all the cards. What are they going to demand? Burnt human sacrifice? This morning, Paul Krugman points out the real demon in this deal:

He goes on to say that if Obama does a good job managing the debt ceiling fight, then this deal will look pretty good in retrospect. But really: how likely is that? The truth is that the president has shown he was bluffing with all his tough talk about stopping this hostage taking before it becomes a habit. And now the Republicans have talked themselves into believing that Obama was so mean to them in this last negotiation, they will feel entirely justified pushing the debt ceiling to the limit. And because they believe that Obama will fold, this game of chicken will very likely end in government default.

If that happens, the fault lies with the president. We can’t blame the Republicans; they are clearly crazy and we have long known that. Obama could have trained them not to play these games. Instead, he trained them to play these games. It seems that he is no more seasoned a politician than he was four years ago. He reminds me of a child crying in the playground because the other boys won’t play fair.

I fear this deal is nothing more than a prelude to a catastrophe.

Just a quick note. Everyone in Washington is happy to let the payroll tax holiday expire. This includes (probably especially) the Republicans. That will be a rise of 2% in total wages taken in taxes. There are no deductions. Nothing is returned at the end of the year.

Yet the “reasonable” Republicans can’t accept taxes to go up by even two percentage points on incomes over $250,000 per year. Note that these earnings are subject to no payroll taxes. None!

That’s the Republican Party all over. In fact, that’s the old Republican Party. That’s the party that is still fairly reasonable by modern GOP standards. A 2% of total wages increase in taxes on the middle class? No problem! A two percentage point increase in taxes on the rich? No way!

Afterword

The difference between these two figures is that the increased net tax rate on the poor would be at least as large and probably notably larger than that for the rich. But just assume they are the same. This is an outrage even under the best circumstances.

John Fugelsang and Frank Conniff present, Shortest 2012 Year in Review Show. It is very funny. My favorite line was from Conniff, “I spent all this past week buying and hoarding every Twinkie I could find, and it was weird: I just found out the company went out of business.”

I am struck by how similar John Fugelsang’s wit is to that of Frankly Curious favorite Julianna Forlano of Absurdity Today.

I keep hearing and reading that a deal may be in the works that will avoid the Fiscal Cliff. No!

Let me say that again: no!

No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! Nooooooooo!

There is a deal that the Senate may pass tonight. There is a deal that the House might take up tomorrow. (But I seriously doubt it!) And by “tomorrow” I mean, you know: the day after we’ve gone off the Fiscal Cliff!

Note: going off the Fiscal Cliff is no big deal. I’ve been long saying that we will. But there is no deal that will stop this from happening. We are going over the Fiscal Cliff in two and a half hours!

And for the record, I don’t think the House will vote on this tomorrow. I still think Boehner will wait until after he has been re-elected Speaker of the House.

Now let’s all jump off the Fiscal Cliff: three, two, one…

As anyone with the smallest amount of knowledge of me knows: I do not like holidays. What’s more: I take pleasure in dumping all over holidays whenever I get the chance. I’m not particularly against New Years, although I don’t celebrate it. At least, not any more than I do every day: getting shit-faced.

That last sentence was interesting, wasn’t it? I used “any more” rather than “anymore.” This is correct. In fact, I don’t much like the word “anymore,” which is kind of new anyway. I also used “every day” instead of “everyday.” This distinction is actually important. “Everyday” is an adjective meaning “ordinary.” On the other hand, “Every day” is a modified noun. Use this sentence to remember the difference: “I wear my everyday clothes every day.”

You see how I celebrate New Years? Grammar lessons. Just be thankful I didn’t provide a proof that two odd numbers multiplied always equal an odd number. (I’m saving that for Valentine’s Day!) But just to show I’m not too bad a guy, here is “Happy New Year” said in upwards of 40 languages:

It isn’t every day you see everyday Babbel employees saying “Happy New Year”!

What a day! It is an amazing combination of actual news happening and almost no coverage of that news. CBS News has reported, No “Fiscal Cliff” Vote in House Monday. But the story indicates that they don’t really believe the House Republicans. They imply that backroom dealing could still pull this out. Except for this line, “House Republicans told their ranks that there will be no votes on any ‘cliff’-related legislation today.” I understand that one might plan to hold a vote and then decide not to—think “Plan B.” But the other way around?

I think what we are seeing is what I wrote about earlier today: Bohner does not want a vote until after he is re-elected Speaker of the House. I fully expect for him to talk very tough—very idiot Tea Party—until after the vote. And then, gradually, but quickly, he will come around and decide that there will be a vote.

Unless the Republican leadership confirms that they will hold a vote today, the Senate Democrats would be crazy to hold a vote. By accepting the $450,000 cutoff for the tax increases, the Democrats would be setting a new baseline for the negotiations after we go off the Cliff. But I fear that Democrats are prepared to do just that. As always, they are so eager to be seen as the “adults in the room” that they are blind to the tactical issues.

Even now (it is 7:00 pm, Eastern time), CNN reports, The Fiscal Cliff Is Nigh; Senate Still Talking, House Won’t Vote. Why is the Senate still talking? And now I just saw on MSNBC (live, so no link) that the House has adjourned but that the Senate is still planning a vote tonight.

It would be a lot of fun to be part of the Evil Party. Unfortunately, because of my beliefs, I’m stuck with the “Adult” Party. And too often that means the Stupid Party. Will it be stupid tonight?

Reuters is reporting, Tentative “Fiscal Cliff” Deal Emerges in Senate. The devil is in the details, but it is at least not as bad as I had thought. In fact, dare I say it: it looks pretty good. If the Republicans were willing to take this all the time, what was the problem? The problem, I fear, is that the Republicans are not willing to take this deal.

Here are the main items:

• It makes permanent the tax cuts on incomes below $450,000. (Meh.)
• The estate tax will be increased. (Good, but by how much?)
• Corporate tax incentives are extended. (Fine.)
• The AMT will be permanently fixed. (About time!)
• The sequester will be delayed for an undetermined amount of time. (Those Republicans really hate deficits, don’t they?!)
• Extended unemployment benefits will be continued for another year. (Very good.)
• Capital gains taxes will be raised from 15% to 23.8%. (Better than nothing. A lot better!)

So this deal look like it might be pretty damned good. And you know what that means…

The Republicans will kill it.

Afterword

This article may not have a long shelf life, unless I’m right. I’m not sure. Obviously, the deal can pass the Senate. It would be high-larious if McConnell ended up filibustering it! But I think that is asking too much. I suspect the deal can pass the House, because Democrats will vote for it in large numbers. But will Boehner really allow a vote on this? Won’t he risk losing his speakership if he allows that? We’ll know soon enough!

Update (31 December 2012 11:53 am)

Finally, I found the president’s speech that everyone is talking about: