Hello folks! I guess I’m going to kind of live blog this thing. I have beer, so it’s okay.

Update

I ended up watching the rest of it. But I couldn’t continue commenting. It is all nonsense. But what most comes out is how complaining about the media is the biggest applause line. What is that all about? The Republicans don’t seem to care about any policy. It is all culture war stuff.

What’s more, there was all this nonsense about the candidates patting themselves on the back over their discussion of “policy” and “ideas.” There are none. It is all reactionary. They are against what the Democrats are for and they are for… They don’t say. And that’s because the only thing they really believe in is lowering taxes on the rich. Yet one of them will get roughly 50% of the vote in just over a year.

Paul Bibeau wrote a great, but deeply disturbing, article yesterday, I Actually Spent the Day Arguing With a Conservative About Whether Slavery Was Bad. Now this is the guy who writes ghost stories about Ronald Reagan, first person notes from a psychopathic Willy Wonka, and Tom Cruise as an immortal Übermensch. So you never know. But this article was straight reporting. And really, we all know its true because we’ve all interacted with these kinds of people. The internet is filled with them.

The argument was over at The Federalist — generally considered a place for smart conservatives. So if you think that Corey Robin is wrong and that conservatism isn’t just a reactionary movement against non-elites, think again. This kind of racism is at the very core of conservative thought. It’s just that it mostly stayed unspoken until the anonymity of the internet arrived. In this case, what most bothered me was this bit, “They got houses or cabins with food, and someone to draw water for them. Most of them were healthier than Africans at the time, and economically, they were better compensated than white workers.” The “they” in this case are slaves in America.

I’ve heard this exact same argument made multiple times by people around the internet. It is usually not made by people who think of themselves as white supremacists (although the guy in question didn’t seem to have a problem with the moniker). But for whatever reason (eg, they are racists) they find it necessary to apologize for slavery. The argument usually goes something like, “Slaves were incredibly valuable! Slave owners treated them very well!” This is at best extremely ignorant. But mostly, it is ideological commitment. They don’t want to admit that anything was wrong in the past.

Well, I did a little research. There are various estimates about the the health of American slaves. I wish all these people would read Edward Baptist’s The Half Has Never Been Told. But our white supremacist friend claims that slaves were healthier than they would have been in African. I think it is worth while to look seriously at life expectancies. According to Our World in Data, the life expectancy in Africa in 1850 was roughly 26 (or perhaps mid-30s); in America it was 35. But of course, that number for America isn’t for slaves.

Luckily, I found the following nifty data from the 1860 US census. It provides a breakdown of slaves by age for 1850. (The 1860 numbers are similar, but there is a typo in the table, so I’m not using it.) Here it is:

Based upon this, we can see that slaves didn’t live long. They tended to die very young. Data from Louis Israel Dublin’s Length of Life (see the same website) indicates that in 1850, African Americans in Massachusetts had a life expectancy slightly higher than that of whites: just short of 40 years. In Maryland, the number for slaves was a bit lower: 38. But in Louisiana, it was 29. This is, of course, due to child mortality. Blacks in the south had a 50% child mortality rate compared to 25% for whites. Slaves were not treated well — especially compared to whites.

The most screwed up people I’ve ever known have always been those people who can never admit to being wrong about anything. It is only through admission of error that we can learn and grow. This happens with societies too. You would think after all these years, we would be beyond arguing if slavery was a good thing or not. But as far as I can tell, this argument is coming back. Slavery was unbelievably barbaric and cruel. Slavery is one of our two biggest sins. We didn’t do a favor for anyone. We enriched ourselves using the sweat and blood of others.

Matt Taibbi put last week’s Benghazi hearing into a broader context that I think is really important, Trey Gowdy Just Elected Hillary Clinton President. If you know Taibbi’s work, you know that he is no fan of Clinton. And he is none too happy that Trey Gowdy and company made even him sympathetic to her. In fact, this is exactly what I was thinking, “Actually many people would have lost it early on and grabbed Gowdy by his goofy silver fro-hawk somewhere in hour six or seven, a fact that made Hillary by contrast look patient and presidential, in ways her campaign had been unable to achieve all year.” I believe I wrote the same thing last week, although mine involved a knife.

But that’s just politics. That’s not the broader context. As much as Taibbi might have major problems with Clinton — far bigger than my policy disagreements — he doesn’t doubt her basic humanity. But that is the base assumption of the Republicans on the House Select Committee on Benghazi. Taibbi put it perfectly, “Hillary has a lot of flaws, but we’re supposed to believe that she doesn’t have a problem with dead Americans? Seriously?” Well, yes: seriously. Of course Taibbi knows that. And it isn’t just Clinton.

Taibbi mentioned the fact that certain people had a tendency to dehumanize Bush when he was in office. “This is the same kind of abject stupidity we saw in the 9/11 Truth movement, which believed unquestioningly that a whole bund of Bush administration officials was willing to see Americans murdered en masse in order to further some convoluted world domination scheme.” But as Taibbi well knows, this was a very small group with no actual power. And of course, they weren’t liberals — conspiracy theorists tend to be in some incoherent realm that is both extreme right and extreme left.

Today, we live in a world where the Republican base — created largely by Fox News and hate radio — believes that liberals are at best naive in allowing the evil doers to take over the US, or actively evil and treasonous in trying to do that very thing themselves. This is not, of course, new. We saw it throughout the Clinton presidency and it was simply recycled for Obama. Some people claim that we shouldn’t elect Clinton because it will just create more scandal mongering from the Republicans. This is indeed a naive notion. Regardless of what Democrat becomes president, there will be more of this. That’s because Democrats are traitors by definition in the Republican mind.

So that is what was most horrifying to watch last week. It wasn’t an attack on Hillary Clinton but on all liberals — and even conservatives who are not of the crazy persuasion. We are not real citizens or even perhaps humans. And this is what allows the Republicans to continue to get elected despite only have policies that benefit the rich and powerful. Their voters believe that voting for that kind of thing is better than the alternative where they lose everything. And they would be right, if that were the actual choice. Of course, it isn’t.

What’s most interesting is that the Republican base ultimately acts the way the conspiracy theorists do. A couple of months ago, I wrote about this, Conspiracy Theories and the Yield to Real Power. By focusing on fake threats, these people allow real threats to have their way. And that is what the Republican base does: better to vote in favor of real threats to their livelihood and freedom rather than vote for Hillary Clinton who literally wants to kill ambassadors — and by extension, other regular Americans.

As expected, Congress and White House Reach Tentative Budget Deal. It will “modestly increase spending over the next two years, cut some social programs, and raise the federal borrowing limit.” The last bit is the most important, because it raises the debt ceiling to a point where we don’t have to worry about it until the next president is in office. But this highlights the importance of having a Democrat in the White House. I no longer think that Republicans will act responsibly if they get total control of Washington. They’ve convinced themselves that Obama has made radical changes to the country, and they are going to push back — hard. Think they won’t repeal Obamacare?! Think again.

Of course, Paul Ryan was out this morning to claim that he was shocked — Shocked! — to find that these negotiations were going on. He said that he thought the process sticks. And that’s all fine. But we know he’s lying. He knew what was going on and he is pandering to the Freedom Caucus in the House. Ryan is very much in the “libertarian” wing of the Republican Party. His biggest concern is taking care of the rich. Causing a global economic collapse is not good for the rich.

We know that the vast majority of the House Republicans will still vote against this deal. But most of them will do it because the crazies in the party will make a big deal out of a vote that increases the debt limit. They will be said to be RINOs. It’s kind of interesting that a small number of extreme Republicans can wield the word RINO as such a weapon. After all, the vast majority of the House Republicans are not of the Freedom Caucus type. So aren’t the real RINOs the people in the Freedom Caucus? I have a term that the Freedom Caucus could use: FINO — Fascists In Name Only.

A regular conservative political party would like this deal. It has social program cuts. It gets rid of one of the mandates in Obamacare. It increases spending on the military. But this is not enough. The only thing that will make these Republicans happy is if they get exactly what they want. In this case, it is the defunding of Planned Parenthood. But it is clear that even if they got that, it would only lead to greater demands. As I’ve noted in the past, the primary Republican complaint is just that they aren’t in total control of Washington.

So we continue to manage the federal government the way a junkie manages his habit: we find a fix for today and hope that we can find a fix tomorrow. And it is a curious spectacle. If you are masochistic enough to read David Brooks or Charles Murray, you know that conservatives are convinced that people are poor because of their lack of middle class values and long term planning. That’s all a crock, of course. But the Republicans who are in charge in Washington behave exactly as this conservative stereotype: no compromises to get some of what they want; no long term planning. They are just waiting until they win the proverbial lottery and have total control so they don’t have to make any compromises.

But don’t worry: soon the American people will rise up and vote these malefactors out of office. Just kidding! There’s a far great probability that we will breech the debt ceiling than that the American people will punish the Republicans. The best we can hope for is a Democratic president in 2017.

Last week was much ado about Back to the Future. I liked the original film well enough — most especially Crispin Glover. The second film was just a mess, of course. So the fact that it was the very day that they land in the future is fairly meaningless. And the whole thing makes me feel that the internet is populated with people even older than I am. But I was interested to see that media superstar Marco Rubio put out this own Back to the Future political ad. From a production standpoint, it is shockingly bad. But that isn’t the most important thing.

You need to see this video in the context of Rubio’s general message. And that’s that he is the future. Those Democrats just have old ideas, but he offers something new. And to prove it, all you have to do is ask him what his favorite hip hop band is. Would an old guy know hip hop? Would a hip hop fan be offering old ideas? No, that Hillary Clinton has old ideas because she’s old. She’s not a hip hop fan! Marco Rubio has the ideas and the policies for the future — hip hop derived ideas. Follow him into the future!

So what are those new policies that Rubio has to offer? Well, let’s start with his forward thinking policies on Cuba. We’ve had an embargo against Cuba for over 50 years. It hasn’t worked. So Rubio has a great idea: keep doing it! Nothing speaks of forward thinking like continuing the same decades long failed policy. He’s also against embryonic stem cell research, because nothing speaks to the future like limiting science in the name of making a stand for your Iron Age religious dogma. He is also against the Paycheck Fairness Act, because, hey, women’s rights is so yesterday. There’s more. Lots more.

But what really highlights Marco Rubio’s bold policies for the future is his budget plan. Josh Barro called it, Marco Rubio’s Puppies-and-Rainbows Tax Plan. That shows what nonsense it is, but actually makes it sound better than it deserves. It is a huge giveaway that blows an enormous hole in the budget. But it wouldn’t be a Republican budget if it didn’t give the vast majority of the benefits to the rich. Simon Maloy called it, Marco Rubio’s Trickle-Down Nonsense. It is yet another supply side con that claims that it will all magically work out because the “job creators” will, in their singular beneficence, create jobs and spur an economic boom.

In the video, Rubio implies that the policies of Hillary Clinton are the stuff of 1989. But his supply side hokum is quite clearly the stuff of 1980. So even if he’s right about Hillary Clinton, she still has nine years on him. Of course, Clinton’s policies are not from 1989. That was clearly during the New Democratic movement when all the left had to offer was neoliberalism. She is actually offering some new ideas on economic issues. Meanwhile, Rubio’s ideas are mostly much older than 1980. I think even then, most people would have at least given lip service to the idea that women ought to get paid the same as men for the same job. That kind of thinking — which Rubio has today — is more like 1960.

I’m really tired of hearing Rubio talk about his “new” ideas. He has no new ideas. He is a Republican — straight from central casting. Other than being of Cuban ancestry and being less than 60 years old, there is nothing that distinguishes him. He continues to remind me of the Young Republicans who majored in political science and always wore suits to prove that they were adults. If Marco Rubio had any ideas, then he wouldn’t be a Republican.

In the Talking Heads song Once in a Lifetime, David Byrne repeats the line, “Same as it ever was.” That’s what I think of the upcoming debt ceiling showdown. I can’t find it, but there is a quote from some Republican in the House saying that he was going to use the debt ceiling to get what he wants because (this is a paraphrase), “You aren’t certain if I’m crazy enough to do it, but I know you aren’t.” It was clearly said with that typical, friendly unhinged tone that the true believers use thinking they are charming. All it really shows is that they don’t take their jobs seriously and think it is all a game.

Over the weekend, I learned from Jim Newell that the debt ceiling will not be reached on 3 November. What’s more, according to John Boehner and Paul Ryan, there are not enough votes in the House to pass a clean debt ceiling increase. In order to pass such a bill, the House would need 218 votes (assuming everyone voted). There are 188 Democrats in the house. Thus, there would need to be 30 Republicans voting for it — just 12% of their caucus. If we are to believe this, 90% of the House Republicans think that destroying the world economy is perfectly fine.

Of course, it is not true that there are fewer than 30 House Republicans who will vote to raise the debt ceiling. Boehner is using an invalid calculus. He takes the number of Republicans who voted for the last increase — there were 28 — and removes the third who are no longer in office. The truth is that the number of people who voted for it last time was the number of people who needed to vote for it. The rest of them just did what comes naturally: grandstand. It is certain that the vast majority of the House Republicans will take this vote if it is absolutely necessary.

And sure enough, The Hill reported this morning, White House, GOP Near Two-Year Budget Deal. Supposedly, a deal will be announced tonight that will set the budget and raise the ceiling until the next president is in office. The budget is supposed to roll back some of the sequester, so that’s a good thing. In fact, it is such a good thing that I find it hard to believe. But it is indicative of the fact that the House Republicans can do anything it wants to. There may be roughly 50 crazies in their caucus, but the power is still with the Republicans who are awful but not crazy.

What the whole “We don’t have the votes!” shows is that the Republican establishment is still committed to hostage taking. I suppose we can take some solace from the fact that they are not crazy. But they still wish to play dangerous games. And that might be okay if they were smart. But the fact remains that crazy or not, the House Republicans have not shown themselves to be competent at their jobs — much less clever — not to mention brilliant. If there is a deal in the works, it is a very good sign. But we can’t depend upon anything until Obama signs it into law. And then we have to wait for the next time the Republicans play this game.

I found a really disturbing article by David Futrelle at We Hunt the Mammoth, “Women Don’t Need Good Chord Progressions,” and Other Ways the Ladies Are Destroying Culture by Being Ladies. But it is only disturbing because I’ve been largely unaware of things like Men’s Rights and so on. The article itself is funny as hell. You should read it.

It is based on a post in The Red Pill subreddit. It’s description is, “Discussion of sexual strategy in a culture increasingly lacking a positive identity for men.” I have a problem with “sexual strategy,” of course. I don’t know what’s wrong with these guys. Getting a girlfriend is not hard. Here is the proven two step process: (1) don’t be a jerk; (2) repeat until successful. I know a lot “sensitive” guys think it is their very niceness that stops them from getting a girlfriend. Generally, I’ve found that the sensitive set is often as bad as the cavemen. Romance is a negotiation. Guys who complain about the lack of a girlfriend are impatient.

To give you some idea of what “sexual strategy” means in practice, the top article right now is, “HumanSockPuppet’s Guide to Managing Your Bitches.” That may well be meant as a joke, but I doubt it. Certainly the commenters on the post don’t think it is a joke. It has such great advice as the necessity of being comfortable bossing your “girl” around. I’ve noticed that the word “comfortable” comes up a lot in other articles. It seems to be a kind of dog whistle. It means roughly not caring what others think of you. This is shockingly like libertarian thinking, where our genuine selves can be found in the distant past before it got spoiled by all this civilization nonsense.

The second part of that description of The Red Pill I have no problem with. Men in our society do suffer from a lack of a positive identity. But their idea is that men should turn into some kind of tired cliche: Don Juan but without the requisite love of women. Again: we get to this fantasy past that is devoid of any nuance, and is ahistorical if you take the broad view. Regardless, the way these guys want to treat women would seem to eliminate the possibility of having the kinds of relationships that they claim to want. The process seems to be: (1) “Girls don’t like me because I’m too nice”; (2) “I’ll be a jerk and then girls will like me.” And all they have to do is be “comfortable” being a jerk!

The article that Futrelle highlights is by a user named TheeRyanGrey, “The Men of Reddit(And America) are terrified to admit women have ruined their favorite activities.” His concern is that women have ruined things men like by dumbing them down. You see girls like to be entertained and men like… Actually, I don’t know. He doesn’t like romantic subplots in films. He doesn’t like “up close and personal” segments in his sports. I suspect that he has really bad taste in everything, but what do I know? I’m one of those weak men who manage to attract women without ever needing a guide on how to manage my bitches.

The funniest part of the whole thing came when TheeRyanGrey talked about music. On his profile, he claims to be a rapper, but he complained that music has become too repetitive. But here’s the best part of Futrelle’s take-down:

TheeRyanGrey then goes on to make a racist statement, “I know an Asian that’s tall and has a big dick, are we gonna just assume that’s the average? Grow up.” It’s funny that he would use “Asian” and not “Oriental.” But whatever. I doubt that many people on The Red Pill know too much about history and words and things. I mean, managing your bitches is a very time consuming activity!

Humans are at their worst when they fence themselves off in a world of their own bigotry. As bad as TheeRyanGrey is, the comments are worse. They show an even more primitive understanding of humanity. Women are supposed to be “helpers” and “supporters.” The whole thing should be called, “Atlas Won’t Shrug.” And it turns out that the whole Men’s Rights movement is big on rape apologetics. Ayn Rand would have loved this stuff! Normal women, not really.