Happy 25th Convention Against Torture

Kade CrockfordIt is the 25th anniversary of Ronald Reagan signing the United Nations Convention Against Torture. Ah, the good ol’ days, when being against torture was bipartisan! Today, the problem is that one of our political parties is in favor of torture and the other, while not being for it, doesn’t think it is important enough to do anything about. Remember “Obama of the Looking Forward”? He’s still president. As I’ve discuss, that won’t do. Part of moving forward is administering justice about the past. And as long as we pretend that past wrong doing never occurred, it is destined to occur again.

Glenn Greenwald posted the excellent photo below from Kade Crockford of the Massachusetts ACLU. I love it. There definitely is the sense that the Obama administration is too busy fixing the world than to bother, you know, fixing the world. Regardless, it is important to remember the Convention Against Torture. This should be a day to celebrate it. Unfortunately, it is not. And it will not be until we look back at what we’ve done so we can authentically move forward.

Convention Against Torture

Slow Economy Causes Government Debt

Arindrajit DubeYou may remember earlier this week, I referenced an article by Mike Konczal and his excellent summary of the problems in the famous Reinhart and Rogoff (R&R) paper. The original paper claimed that high government debt led to slow economic growth. The primary argument against this work was that R&R had the causation backwards: in reality, slow economic growth leads to high government debt. Well, yesterday, Konczal published an article by a young economist at Amherst, Arindrajit Dube. In it, he shows, using their own data, that R&R do indeed have the causation backwards.

Dube asked the simplest of questions, “Does a high debt-to-GDP ratio better predict future growth rates, or past ones?” Put another way: does the high debt come before an economic slump or after it? If it comes before, that would indicate that R&R are right: debt causes the economy to tank. But if debt comes after the economy tanks, then R&R are wrong: a poor economy leads to high government debt.

To answer this question, Dube looked at the economic growth in the three years before high government debt. And then he looked at the economic growth in the three years after high government debt. The results: the economic growth is low before the high debt, not after. In other words, slow economic growth causes high government debt, not the other way around. In still other words, R&R are wrong.

What is most amazing to me about this is how slipshod the work of R&R is turning out to be. When I did this kind of work for a living, I took great care. We were always looking for trends and correlations. But in doing so, we would test the data from every imaginable angle. What Dr. Dube has done is this kind of standard work. But it is all the more striking because it is exactly the kind of work you would do if you were arguing (which R&R did outside their paper) that high debt was causing slow growth. The fact that they did no such tests, indicates to me that their work is more political apologia than it is economics.

Three cheers for Arindrajit Dube and his incisive debunking of an important conservative economic canard.

Afterword

If the name Arindrajit Dube sounds familiar, it may be because a couple of months ago, I wrote about his thinking on the minimum wage and the EITC. He’s a brilliant guy.

Perceived Beauty vs Mirrors and Bad Lighting

It’s difficult being a first world woman. I don’t worry about where my next meal will come from, but I am concerned about it’s probable effect on my waistline. I don’t worry about dying at 60, but I dread what I may look like when I get there. We pick ourselves apart from the inside out, with an insatiable insecurity that marketing companies force feel like a foie gras goose. The boys of That Mitchell and Webb Look summed it up nicely.

So I appreciate any counter balance to our culture’s constant, insidious criticism. Remember when Jamie Lee Curtis did that photo shoot for More magazine? Seeing her with no make-up, no airbrushing and looking like an average woman was refreshing. It made me feel better about myself for about three minutes.

Dove®, purveyor of hygiene and beauty necessities, has been trying to lift its head out of the advertising swill of by appealing to women’s self-esteem; not by crushing it, but by bolstering it. Their Campaign for Real Beauty is aimed at the same market of dissatisfied women, but tries to curry favor with compliments rather than implied disappointment. Unfortunately, I am far too cynical to believe this manoeuvre isn’t a bit disingenuous; like every other advertiser, Dove is still using kind lighting and probably a little photoshopping. What we end up with are Illusions of empowerment that manipulate even as they encourage.

Regardless, having been slowly crushed by advertising since I was a child (remember those Breck girls?), Dove’s approach does make me feel better. So when I read about Dove’s most recent attempt to rescue the alienated consumer, I was intrigued.

Dove is on a mission. Ever since their Real Beauty campaign launched in 2004, the personal care brand has been saying one thing loud and clear: Women are fine just the way we are.

If you’re one of the people who struggles to believe them, the latest addition to the series just might convince you that you may need to rethink your approach.

Dove hired an FBI-trained police sketch artist to draw women – first, based on the women’s descriptions of themselves, then based on how others described them.

In nearly every instance, the pictures were starkly different – the women describing themselves had been [notably] harsh and the resulting image often not appealing. When another person described the very same face, however, the differences were positively dramatic.

Impressive, right? Not really. First of all, the women seem to have been hand-picked from a Build Your Self-esteem workshop. This could just as easily have been an ad for antidepressants.

Then there’s the “objective” opinions of strangers. No decent person is going to chat with a newly introduced, amiable person and then, immediately afterwards on camera, describe that person’s appearance in anything but a kind light. I can only imagine that the entire process of choosing subjects and observers was carried out much like a jury selection.

Dove’s tactics, while still somewhat Machiavellian, are at least not so subtly disparaging as their competitors and that’s a good thing. When it comes to a woman’s self-image, even lip-service is comforting.


My real problem with the whole thing is the terrible police sketches. It’s no wonder rapists and murderers so often elude capture.

Would Jesus Be a Republican?

Rapture ReadyI found an amusing little article over at the vile website Rapture Ready, Would Jesus Vote Republican? The answer: Jesus would not have been a Democrat or a Republican, but clearly the Republican Party is far more godly so you better vote Republican. Fun times!

The section that discusses why Jesus would not be a Republican only gives one reason: the Democratic Party charge that the Republicans are the party of the greed is not “without a degree of legitimacy.” That’s it. It then goes on about original sin and the fact that men are greedy. And ends with an argument for why the Republican Party is the “sound” choice. And note: this is before they even get to the section on voting Republican!

I can come up with some other reasons why Jesus might not be a Republican. It isn’t just a question of greed. The Republican Party makes idols out of money and those who have money. That goes against Commandments one and two, and Jesus said we needed to follow the Jewish law. The Republican Party is very much interested in mocking and abusing the poor. Jesus didn’t dig on that. And the Republican Party is a jingoist group, which is thus idolatrous and violent. But those at Rapture Ready don’t care about any of this. That’s because they are too busy focusing on the Democratic Party.

According to these evil, heartless, bigots, Jesus would not be a Democrat because of abortion, gay rights, and (I love this one!) “a general hostility to Bible-believing Christians.” I think it is fascinating how a religious issue that has only been around for decades, abortion, is thrown onto Jesus. It also strikes me as absurd that the vast majority of anti-abortion Christians have no problem with birth control, when every argument you can make against abortion can also be made against the use of condoms. (And male masturbation!)

As for gay right: okay, I’ll accept that Jesus hated fags. He never said he liked them, the Old Testament said they should be killed, and he said to follow Jewish law. But there is another way to look at the gay rights issue. It could be that the Bible was written by a bunch of bigots and that it has nothing to do with God. Shocking, I know. But just imagine!

As for the Democratic Party having a hostility toward Bible-believing Christians, this completely exposes Rapture Ready for what it is: cultural Christian. The vast majority of Democrats are Christians. But they aren’t the right kind of Christians; they aren’t conservative Christians. So why doesn’t Rapture Ready just come out and say it? It would be a lot easier: conservative Christians should vote Republican because it is the conservative party. I’d accept that.

What is so offensive about Rapture Ready (and the conservative Christian movement generally), is that it claims to speak for all Christians. But of course it doesn’t. Conservative Christians are only spouting what their pastors have told them—what everyone they know believes. It doesn’t come from a close study of the Bible. And that’s why it all degenerates into cultural feuds and “serious” discussions of how God wants you to vote Republican. Pathetic.

Don’t Primary Red State Democrats

PurityAfter a string of clueless attempts to be iconoclastic, Jonathan Chait managed to write something that is both iconoclastic and right, Senate Democrats Wise to Block Background Checks. His argument is very simple: red state Democrats have to make some non-liberal votes to maintain credibility with their voters; this bill was almost completely useless, or as Chait puts it, “a compromise of a compromise”; therefore this was a good bill to vote against. And as I noted on Monday, the final law could have been much worse than nothing at all.

One thing that Chait doesn’t mention is that as much as these red state Democrats may annoy us from time to time, they are very strong members of the team. In fact, currently the Democratic Party has more disciple in the Senate than the Republican Party. So the calls I’m hearing from certain corners that we should primary these red state Democrats are just crazy.

There is a related issue that I think is really important. Democratic politicians from blue states are often quite conservative, especially on economic issues. Dianne Feinstein, from my own great state of California, comes to mind. When it comes to red state Democrats, a primary would probably end in a Republican winning the general election. But why aren’t we primarying Democrats in blue states?

One of our biggest political problems is that the Republican Party is too extreme and the Democratic Party is not extreme enough. One way to fix this would be to enforce a little ideological purity on our representatives from liberal areas. After all, what makes the Republican Party unacceptable is not that Orrin Hatch of Utah is an extremist. He’s from an extremist state; he should be extremist. But why do the people of the very liberal state of New York have an economic conservative as governor?

So we need to stop this nonsense about primarying red state Democrats and start talking about primarying their blue state counterparts who have no good reason for being as conservative as they are.

Once Upon a Time in the West

Once Upon a Time in the WestLongtime reader and insightful commenter JMF had mentioned a few times that he really liked the Sergio Leone film Once Upon a Time in the West. I hadn’t thought that much of it, but I’d only seen it once about 20 years ago. So I decided to revisit it. And it was a revelation.

One thing I wouldn’t have noticed 20 years ago is just how beautiful this film is. In fact, I’ve been trying to think of a film that is clearly better and nothing comes to mind. Every shot is beautiful. There is absolutely nothing in the film that does not show great care in terms of art direction, lighting, and camera. Even the rear projection is beautiful.

But the biggest revelation is how political the film is. This shouldn’t be surprising. Leone was generally pretty political, and in ways that I very much agree with. I especially like his comment on power and revolution in Duck You Sucker! (A Fistful of Dynamite). But in Once Upon a Time in the West, he has created an allegory. It tells a story of human initiative and how it is destroyed by the status quo of corporate hegemony. What’s more, we see how these power elites not only use organized crime but are in fact the same thing. There is a great scene where Frank (Henry Fonda) sits behind the desk of Morton (Gabriele Ferzetti), the railroad tycoon. Morton asks, “How does it feel sitting behind that desk, Frank?” And Frank responds, “It’s almost like holding a gun, only much more powerful.” Indeed.

There is too much mother/whore nonsense going on in the film about the heroine Jill. But I must admit, Claudia Cardinale is a wonderful actress and one of the prettiest women who ever lived. Her character is very interesting, though. She has done and will do anything she needs to in order to survive. At one point early in the film, she explains herself, “If you want to, you can lay me over the table and amuse yourself. And even call in your men. Well, no woman ever died from that.[1] When you’re finished, all I’ll need will be a tub of boiling water, and I’ll be exactly what I was before—with just another filthy memory.” Unlike Frank and Morton, she has a soul; so she cleans up fine.

One thing that I used to dislike in Leone films that I now see as an advantage is his lack of transitions. In Once Upon a Time in the West, important plot points are simply not shown. Normally they are explained later. For instance, Morton and his men are found all shot up. Who did it? We don’t find out until the very end of the film, although it’s pretty clear. Drama requires that the alpha hero kill the alpha villain and the beta hero kill the beta villain. (And the gamma villain is often referred to as the “dog villain” because drama shortcut for such characters is to have them kick a dog.)

I’m going to re-watch a bunch of Leone films and compare them. But I think JMF is right: Once Upon a Time in the West is probably Sergio Leone’s best film.


[1] For the record, yes, I know: lots of women have died from that.

Women Beware Middleton

Thomas MiddletonClarence Darrow was born on this day in 1857. He was a major player in two of the most important trails of the last century: Scopes (evolution and free speech) and Leopold and Loeb (death penalty). He was a truly great man.

Japanese screenwriter Shinobu Hashimoto is 95 today. Rock journalist Robert Christgau is 71. Actor James Woods is 66. SCTV alumnus Rick Moranis is 60. Conan O’Brien is 50. Conservative apologist Niall Ferguson is 49. And actor Maria Bello is 46.

But the day belongs to the great playwright Thomas Middleton, who was born in 1580. He was a contemporary of Shakespeare, but created less insipid plots. To give you some idea, consider the following from Gary Taylor about Middleton’s play Women Beware Women:

What if Romeo and Juliet had lived? What if Romeo had been waiting there when Juliet awoke in the tomb, and the two of them had giddily eloped to Mantua, to live happily ever after? They wouldn’t have any money. Romeo would need to get a job. Juliet would stay at home all day, afraid that her family would find her if she dared to venture out. Alone at home, she’d be bored out of her skull. She’d want Romeo to stay home for sex and conversation every day. Both of them had grown up in wealthy families, and were used to the finer things in life. Juliet would grow increasingly impatient at her new standard of living. She’d start peeking out of the window, wanting to escape the little domestic box in which she’d been entombed alive. One day, a rich older man would see her at her window. She would look at him, looking at her. It’s so much easier to love “till death do us part” if death parts us quickly.

Happy birthday Thomas Middleton!

Waco 20 Years On

Waco FireAccording to The Atlantic, there has been an explosion at a fertilizer plant near Waco, Texas. This seems pretty strange, because it is almost 20 years to the day of the end of the siege of the Branch Davidians’ compound in Waco, Texas that there would be an explosion in that area. That siege started on 28 February 1993. And it ended on 19 April 1993. On the other hand, if I were a reporter, I’d be hyper sensitive to anything happening around this time. You may remember that the Oklahoma City bombing took place on the second anniversary of the end of that siege.

But it is a fertilizer plant. And if we learned anything from the Oklahoma City bombing, it is that fertilizer is combustible. And this is a big explosion. According to the report, it was felt 100 miles away in Dallas. What’s more, there are reports of severely injured people—and maybe more.

So is it yet another confused person who thinks that human life is not as important as political ideology? I can’t say. Check back here for updates, because I do want to know. If it turns out to be nothing more than a coincidence, it will mean that God is cruel. Otherwise, it will mean that man is cruel.

I tend to think that both are.

Yglesias Cast Out of Appleworld

Matt YglesiasThis is just sad. I’ve been reading Matt Yglesias for a long time and one thing I know (And like!) about him is that he’s an iconoclast. Just this morning he was making what I thought a very weak but iconoclastic argument against fiscal stimulus. But when it comes to computers, I guess he just has to be one of the gang.

Yesterday, he wrote an article complaining about the fact that Apple is keeping its products unreasonably expensive because of unreasonably high profit margins. I’m not sure he’s right. The main problem I have with Apple products is their snob appeal. There are markets where higher prices increase demand. It is certainly possible that if Apple started selling their products at more reasonable prices, they would lose customers who wanted Apple products because only the “cool” people have them. Regardless, Yglesias made a totally reasonable argument.

But the Apple devotees (the worst aspect of Apple snob appeal) came after him. And rather than just ignore it as he usually does when people make cogent, much less ridiculous, points against him, he wrote:

This gets to be touchy emotional terrain for some people, so I want to be clear. I bought an iPhone the first week it was released. I own an iPhone 5 and an iPad 3 and a MacBook Air and a Thunderbolt Display and an Apple Wireless Keyboard and an Apple Wireless Trackpad. I’m not an Apple-basher and I don’t want the company to “be like Dell” or “be like Samsung.” But one of the oddities of the increasingly partisan tech commentary world is that somehow Apple’s customers have become cheerleaders for high prices and giant profits. That’s odd. As a fan of Apple products, I’d like them to be cheaper so I can buy more!

Really everybody: I’m one of you! Don’t cast me out! I love love love Apple! Honest I do!

It’s just sad.

Afterword

There is a serious point that Yglesias is getting at: Apple could make huge inroads into the computer market if they, say, cut their prices by 20%. There is another way to look at the situation, though. Apple could use all of its profits to actually, you know, do some R&D. The company spends a shockingly small amount of money on technological innovation. Apple seems to think it can get by forever on its branding and packaging. I think not, and so do a lot of other people. Apple stock is down, even though they continue to make a lot of money.

Forgiving Torture

America TorturesI am often reminded that I’m not a very nice person. Most recently, this came to mind because Jonathan Bernstein wrote at Post Partisan, How Do We Keep from Torturing Again? This is coming off the Constitution Project report stating unequivocally that after 9/11, the United States, as a matter of government policy, tortured people in our custody. As I reported in an update to that story, Andrew Sullivan has called for a truth commission or something similar to address this unacceptable behavior.

Bernstein said much the same thing, but with a political scientist’s eye: the only way we can prevent future episodes of government torture is to admit what we did. We can’t be a nation where one party is against torture and the other is for it. In fact, that is exactly what we now have for reasons that should be clear to readers of this site. But this gets to the point about my not being a nice person. Berstein wrote:

I’ve argued—against many torture opponents—that a Truth Commission, combined with blanket pardons and generous expressions of understanding for those who were responsible, as odious as what they did was, is actually the best way to proceed.

I think he is right, and yet I have trouble offering those generous expressions of understanding. But it isn’t because I’m not forgiving—I am very forgiving. It is just that I remain resentful as long as the wrongdoer does not admit his error. I think most people are like this.

So as long as Bush Jr continues to act like everything he did in office was just great or at least done with the best intentions, I cannot offer understanding. As long as Cheney goes around the country talking about how right he was to lead our country into the “dark side,” I cannot offer understanding. As long as torturers and their apologists continue to be represented at the highest levels of government and media, I cannot offer understanding.

That’s my failing. But maybe better men than I can get a truth commission going and convince Bush to admit to his torture policies and accept that they were wrong. If he does, my opinion of him will improve and I will offer him generous expressions of understanding—I know I will, because I know how I am. But until then, I will think of him as just another unpunished criminal who should be spending the rest of his life in a cage, not attending his own art shows.

Forfeit Today So You Can Forfeit Tomorrow

Jeff FlakeAny time now, the Senate will vote down the Toomey-Manchin gun purchase background check compromise. I can’t say I’m sad about this. Even under the best of circumstances, the law would have been so watered down as to be almost meaningless. And that was very little gain in return for the possibility that the law would have been far worse than nothing. What I find interesting about the whole exercise is that it shows how little power senators have.

Yesterday, David Firestone over at Taking Note tried to explain, Why the Background Check Bill Is in Trouble. He gave as an example the freshman Republican from Arizona, Jeff Flake. Flake said he was against the bill because it could cause sales between friends and relatives to require a background check. Now, this is not true; Flake was just making this up to give himself an excuse for voting against the bill.

That’s the thing: in a reasonable world, Flake would have no trouble with this bill. After all, it is only fixing a long extant law that is not at all controversial. But I think I’m fair in divining that he is only voting against the bill because he is afraid of the specious charge that he voted for “gun control.” And so Senator Flake does not actually have the power to vote as he wishes.

But let’s be clear. There certainly are senators who will vote against the bill because it is really what they believe. Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, I think, are against the whole background check system. But most senators are not like them. I’m sure at least 30 of the senators who vote against the very mild Toomey-Manchin bill will do so not because of their power but because of their lack of power.

And this is the way power works. Flake could use his power to vote as he sees right. But he won’t. He’s (rightly) afraid that if he uses his power, he will later lose it. But truly, this makes no sense. It is just a recipe for holding onto a pointless job. And the truth is that using political power will not necessarily lead to its destruction. But in my experience, those who seek power are morally weak—and that includes the true believers like Paul and Cruz. So it isn’t surprising that they will forfeit today to assure they will be around to forfeit tomorrow.

S’awright? S’awriiight!

Senor WencesThe English playwright John Ford was born on this day in 1586. The inventor of baseball (more or less), Alexander Cartwright was born in 1820. J. P. Morgan was born in 1837, and we’ve been paying for it ever since. The great playwright Thornton Wilder was born 1897. William Holden was born in 1918. Director Lindsay Anderson was born in 1923. The great Japanese film critic Donald Richie was born in 1924 (and just died back in February). And concert promoter Don Kirshner was born in 1934.

Author Nick Hornby is 56 today. And actor Sean Bean is 54.

But the day belongs to the great ventriloquist Señor Wences who was born in 1896 and lived to be 103 years old. He was an amazing performer. In the clip below, you will see, however, that he is hardly a ventriloquist at all. But note that he is 70 years old in it. Ventriloquists lose their technique as they get older. I recommend just sitting back and enjoying the comedy. The truth is that it is almost impossible to not look at his various puppets as they talk anyway.

Happy birthday Señor Wences!