Sigourney Weaver’s Retirement

Sigourney WeaverSigourney Weaver is 65 today. It’s good that she’s been in so many fun movies, because she will be forced into retirement now. It’s kind of sad, because she clearly had a few good years left. But hey, the Screen Actors’ Guild has its rules and there is nothing that can be done. At least I think that’s how it works. People point to William Hickey and say, “He worked way past the age of 65!” But this isn’t true. First, Hickey was only 69 when he died (true) and the last movies he was in were actually just puppets that looked like him (not true, but the world would be so much more cool if it were).

One thing I’ve noticed before is that old actors who we think are really great like Alec Guinness and Laurence Olivier were really good looking when they were young. Yes, they were great actors. But that’s not why they were famous. They were famous because they were pretty. The same thing goes with Sigourney Weaver: she was and still is very attractive. I’m not even that sexual a person, but what I remember about the end of of Alien is not all the action and the creature getting jettisoned out into space. I remember the barely existent panties that Ripley wore.

There are lots of Sigourney Weaver films that I really like. I’m especially fond Alien: Resurrection, and really all the Alien films, but with the usual caveats about the third one. But here’s one of my other favorites, Galaxy Quest:

Happy birthday Sigourney Weaver!

Francisco Franco and the Champagne Supply

Francisco FrancoSomething that I find constantly fascinating is how conservatives embrace fascists. Other than truly radical people, you don’t see a corresponding embrace on the left. In fact, if you look at Noam Chomsky (or me for that matter), you don’t see an embrace of left wing dictators. But on the right, as long as the fascist is willing to left Exxon make money in his country, he is just fine with establishment conservatives.

The best recent example of this is Augusto Pinochet — a truly vile figure. Yet he was a hero to people like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. It’s very interesting. I’ve always felt that the American left’s infatuation with the Soviet Union was overblown. Most people on the left just wanted labor unions and social insurance. The left in this country has never really been radical. But even if conservatives want to believe that it was, wouldn’t this fact act as a kind of cautionary tale?

As it is, if it weren’t for the Jews and the fact that we were part of a world war against them, I think conservatives would generally think fondly of Hitler. And it isn’t exactly open to debate. Because conservatives are generally pretty positive toward Francisco Franco. And I think the reason for this is that conservatives are, at base, authoritarians. So they may have problems with bits of ideology, but they really do dream of a leader who comes in and just tells them what to do.

This is exactly why conservatives continue to adore the traitor Oliver North. And that’s why Dick Cheney is still considered a good guy: he may be wrong about everything; he may only be interested in enriching himself and his friends; he may have done irreparable damage to the United States; but damn it, he barks orders at people so he’s okay for the Republican Party! Ditto for Allen West (a classic authoritarian). Ditto for Ted Cruz. In fact, this may be the biggest problem that Rand Paul faces: he seems too thoughtful and not nearly belligerent enough (although he’s working on it).

I came upon this interesting quote about Francisco Franco from Hélène Zuber:

Franco is undeniably one of the great villains of Spanish history. His fascist forces not only plunged Spain into Civil War from 1936-39, but resulted in a harsh and violent dictatorship that lasted until his death in 1975. When he died, it was allegedly impossible to buy a bottle of champagne in Spain: They were all sold out.

Franco was not exactly a conservative hero in America, but he was certainly no great villain either. But to his people he was. That didn’t matter to American conservatives, of course. That never matters to American conservatives. What matters are profits for American corporations — or multinational corporations that are largely owned by rich Americans.

Anyway, I did a Mad Kane and turned this little story about Franco into a limerick (with a slant rhyme that she hates):

I assure you that this ain’t no jive
The year was 19 seven five
   People felt no more pain
   They ran out of champagne
Because Franco the despot had died.

Conservatives are the most shortsighted people I know. Their ideas have a shelf-life of one generation at max. So they live their lives being seen as acceptable. But future generations will see them for what they really are. When Cheney dies, there will be lots of champagne corks popping!

Bloggers and Serial Killers

BlogI’m confused. I’m not sure what I should do with this blog. For some time, I’ve written five articles per day. And the average length of the articles has been about 600 words. That makes for 3,000 words per day. That sits very well with me because my first novel had chapters that were all about 3,000 words long. It seems like a proper amount of work for one day, even though each chapter took me quite a lot longer than one day to write.

But for whatever reason, the articles I’ve been writing recently have been much longer. Articles and coming in at about a thousand words. And I don’t think this is because I’m padding. I think I’m just going into a little more depth. And in the three articles I’ve written today, I’ve already reached close to 3,000 words. Do you deserve more? Well, of course you do! You don’t come to Frankly Curious for in-depth analysis. So I will continue to try to put out five articles per day.

Just the same, it can’t just be five articles per day. I actually have a problem with posts that are just an image or a video. That’s all fine for people who are on the cutting edge of what’s happening. But if I present a video to you, it probably dates from the 1950s. But there is another option.

I’ve long thought what it would be like to be an Atrios kind of blogger. His is the kind of blogging you can do only if you already have a huge audience. It is rare that he writes more than a paragraph, and usually he writes only a sentence. For example, where I wrote a thousand words about Jonathan Chait’s apologia for football, Atrios would have written, “When I read this, I thought some people never get over high school.” That’s not to say that Atrios doesn’t have keen insights that he communicates pithily. But it does seem like a bit of a cheat. It seems like idea aggregation. And the commenters rarely discuss what any given blog post is about. Each could as easily be open threads.

Regardless, I don’t have it in me. Even when I try to be brief, I find that I manage 500 words of lead up. Anyway, all of this is to say that I don’t know quite what I’m doing. What comes, comes. It is the nature of Frankly Curious anyway. It was never intended to be consistent. That’s why I can go days talking about nothing but politics and then go days not talking about politics at all. More and more, I’d like to spend my time not talking about politics. There isn’t much to talk about anyway. And what little there is makes me wish that I had been born into a more enlightened time and place — perhaps into a Neanderthal tribe on the coast of the Mediterranean.

Most likely, Frankly Curious will continue on as it has gone on. Because above all else, this website continues to be a kind of addiction for me. Some men feel a compulsion to kill people and have sex with their dead bodies. I have a compulsion to write five articles here every day. And even though some of the articles are really little more than filler like this article, I think we can all agree that this is a far better use of my time than serial murder. For one thing, there’s the whole ten thousand hours that is required to become an expert in anything and I haven’t even spent a minute murdering people. Do you really want to wait for five years while I perfect my craft? No. I think I’d better stick to what I know.

Jonathan Chait Relives His Glory Days

Jonathan ChaitAnyone who has read me even casually knows that I hate the game of football. It isn’t a political thing. I just think it is an incredibly boring game. If you like action and athletic beauty, watch basketball. If you love skill, watch baseball. (Although I am rooting for the Giants, watching the Nationals in the field is like watching great real time art.) But what is football? A bunch of testosterone fueled steroid-built bodies crashing into each other.

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t like it. I’m not saying that it is wrong to like. And I know a lot more about the game than you might think. I understand it pretty well and I appreciate parts of it. But it is the most popular sport in the United States for one reason and one reason only: it is violent. Football is a game that glorifies violence. As I wrote recently, The Basis of the NFL Is Violence:

But as a society we pretend that it doesn’t mean anything else. It is compartmentalized. The billions we pay to owners and the millions we pay to players of this violent game are not supposed to be about anything but the game — it isn’t about violence! But obviously, the people who play this game well are going to be more testosterone fueled and more violent than the average person.

But like I said: I don’t like football. But Jonathan Chait does. Oh, how he does! For years, he’s been losing the argument about the NCAA staying amateur. Last year, Scott Lemieux at The American Prospect took him to task about this, Stop Defending the NCAA. And I have long wondered if Chait doesn’t really care about the football players — or at least that their needs are clearly trumped by his love of the game as a spectator.

Today, he’s back with an article that I find even more troubling, In Defense of Male Aggression: What Liberals Get Wrong About Football. As if to proclaim to the world “I’m just trying to be offensive,” the entire article is filled with pictures of football players at the ages of 6, 6, 7, and 8. But no mention is made of them in the article. I guess we are just supposed to understand that little boys in football gear is really great because they are learning valuable life lessons.

Chait is surprisingly unaware of even himself. For example, he noted that Theodore Roosevelt’s ideas about raising young men would be beyond the pale by today’s standards. But still, he noted, there are some things of value. For example, “A healthy-minded boy should feel hearty contempt for the coward, and even more hearty indignation for the boy who bullies girls or small boys, or tortures animals.” Well, in my experience, it was exactly the “strong” boys who were bullies and the most likely to catch toads and throw them high in air to watch them be squashed on the pavement. But my biggest problem with that statement is the single word, “Coward.”

In my experience, it is the most heroic man who is most likely to be called a coward. And Chait follows up the Roosevelt quote by telling the story of how he was going to quit his high school football team, because — by his own description — it was mostly about getting brutalized by bigger boys. But as he waited for a chance to talk to his coach, he didn’t know what he was going to say. He doesn’t say it, but I know what he was thinking, “They’ll think I’m a wimp. How can I tell them I don’t want to play football because I don’t like getting hit?” So Chait does what he thinks shows great character, but I think shows he was an immature coward: he does nothing. He stayed with the team.

Much of his relentlessly long article is just him remembering the glory days of high school football. And he is prepared for people like me to say that it is pathetic. So let me not disappoint: it is pathetic! And one of the people he played with went on to be a private equity manager who can “lift 225 pounds 27 times, an NFL-linebacker-like amount.” Wow. I’m so impressed! I’m sure the guy’s inferiority complex and overabundance of testosterone make him the perfect fit for a financial career that does vast amounts of damage to society.

In the end, I really wasn’t sure what I, as a liberal, didn’t get about football. I’ve never thought that football itself was the problem. I just don’t think its popularity speaks well of us. But Chait contends that football can’t be hurting society and maybe it is actually helping because we’ve become a less violent society. Of course, that trend has been going on for centuries so I hardly think that football has much to do with it.

He ends the article with what could have been the whole article:

This is an increasingly antiquated conception of male socialization. George Orwell, the old socialist, was well ahead of his time when he scribbled out an angry rant against the sporting ethic, which, he wrote, “is bound up with hatred, jealousy, boastfulness, disregard of all rules and sadistic pleasure in witnessing violence: in other words it is war minus the shooting.” That is all more or less true. But shooting is precisely the problem with war. War minus the shooting is actually pretty great.

Really?! Because I think the British at the Battle of Stirling Bridge might disagree. And Chait’s overall argument seems to be that there are good things that kids learn from football. Fair enough. And then he says we don’t really know if high school and college ball is particularly deadly, so let’s just continue on. After all, Chait has his memories of that great tackle he made as outside linebacker. And there are all those Michigan games that he enjoys watching. And men will be men, and liberals will never understand it because, well, they’re liberals.

I always thought that Chait was a smart guy. But maybe this article is more proof that his years playing high school football did cause some brain trauma.

The Self-Perpetuation of Awards

Shorter Poems - Gerald BurnsI used to be roommates with Gerald Burns — a well known poet and literary critic. Well, he was well known in the sense that any poet is well know. He was a great writer and I learned a lot from him. He also knew everyone. He was friends with people like Andrei Codrescu and enemies with far more. Poetry is like that. At that time, Burns was something of a big deal. He had won the National Poetry Series award in 1992, which is immortalized in a wonderful book, Shorter Poems. The poems were not what most people would consider short. It is just that they weren’t thousands of lines long the way they often were in such books as, Longer Poems.

The thing about Burns’ award was that it didn’t have all that much to do with the quality of his work. It was just that he had been writing long enough and was well enough connected that eventually, he found that one of his close friends was sitting on the judging committee of a major poetry award. And they picked Burns. It had to be like that. His poetry was extremely dense and ostentatiously intellectual. Most people thought reading him was like chewing gravel. But among those who got it, his work was brilliant and even charming.

I was reminded of this on Sunday when I read Thomas Frank’s newest article, Genius Grant or TED Talk: Does a MacArthur Grant Make a Genius Smarter? It is about how awards lead to awards. The MacArthur Fellowship may have started out as a way to give out awards to deserving unknowns, but like all awards, it quickly became just a way to polish its brand. How do we know that a MacArthur Fellow is brilliant? Because he has been given lots of awards by other organizations. Unlike his best work, Frank kind of rambles in the article, but you get the point.

Let me be more blunt. Awards like the MacArthur Fellowship are part of our problem with inequality. Society decides that this or that genius is the genius. I own a number of recent English translations of Don Quixote. Not one of them is distinctly better than another. That is because they are all shockingly great in their own way. But the award business is about picking one as though he is preeminent. So Edith Grossman becomes a millionaire and John Rutherford just remains a fellow at The Queen’s College, Oxford. There’s nothing wrong with that, but the awards make distinctions where none exist. And giving money to a single creative worker is probably a bad use of resources. (For the record, Edith Grossman has not won a MacArthur fellowship; I’m just making a point.)

Of course, this isn’t all about branding. It’s also about laziness. It is a hell of a lot easier to look around and see what people other groups are celebrating than to go out and look for new or unknown talent. For example, how would anyone even know about a modern day Emily Dickinson? What’s more, an unknown artist might embarrass a foundation by turning out to be someone who isn’t right thinking as defined by the kind of people who give out these awards — you know, the TED Talk crowd. These are people who thought Nick Hanauer was “partisan” because he didn’t think rich people were “job creators” and thought that Sarah Silverman was unacceptable because she performed her act at TED the same way she has for decades. You know: upper class douchebags.

As for Gerald, I suspect there were more awards in his future. He had broken through and his work was so difficult that even if people didn’t read it, they would have gone on respecting it. But only a few years later, Gerald died quite suddenly, under the most tragic of circumstances. But his award lives on. And all the awards live on. Because ultimately, that’s what they are for: themselves.

Traitor Oliver North

Oliver North: Reporting for TreasonJust in passing, let me say that the great spiritual leader Desmond Tutu is 83 years old today. He has always been a leader in the fight for social justice and he was a very important figure in ending South African apartheid. Since that time, he has been an outspoken leader on a number of other issues such as the fight against AIDS. It is interesting that as an Anglican, he is able to do something about this huge problem and not, as Catholic priests, make it worse. But if you have any question of Tutu’s greatness, all you have to do is look at his Wikipedia page where you will find that someone has gone in and added things like, “Tutu’s admirers see him as…” There is really nothing negative said about him, but the implication is that the reality is something else entirely. I’ll have to check back in a month and see if these subtle slights are a constant. Regardless, I wanted to spend today talking about someone really vile, so obviously Tutu was out.

The American traitor Oliver North is 71 today. In the 1980s, one of the great American bogeymen was Nicaragua. You see, Nicaragua was a democracy, but it was a leftist one and so from the perspective of America, it had to be destroyed. Ronald Reagan, that great lover of freedom and the law, was in the process of illegally selling arms to Iran. The idea was that by selling Iran weapons, they would help with another problem. At that time, there were seven American hostages being held by members of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Over the course of two years, five of the seven hostages were released. But in the mean time, three more Americans were kidnapped to replace the first three who were released. Even if the arms for hostages deal had been a good idea, the administration totally screwed it up.

Oliver North was in charge of the second half of the plan: take the money from Iran and give it to the Contras. Reagan called them “freedom fighters.” It would be more correct to call them a terrorist group. Here is a list of some of the things these “freedom fighters” did: assassinating healthcare workers; kidnapping, torturing, and murdering civilians; raping women; attacking and seizing civilian housing; and burning down houses.

Regardless of what you want to call them, the Contras were primarily a right wing group that did not like the fact that the people of Nicaragua did not want them in power. Outside the fact that what Oliver North did was a treasonous act in his own country, what he did inside Nicaragua was a complete violation of international law. In fact, the International Court of Justice found in favor of Nicaragua against the United States. We lamely claimed that the US Constitution trumped international law, as though the US Constitution gave us the rights to overthrow any democratically elected government we didn’t like.

I remember the Iran-Contra hearings. I was glued to the radio. And Oliver North coming in to testify was a very big thing. It was the high point of North’s life because he more or less invented the modern Republican Party right there. Rather than stand by any sense of patriotism or legislative norms, he came in and basically said, “I did it; so what?!” Those on the committee were stunned. They weren’t prepared for North, the same way one is never prepared for someone who acts in a totally inappropriate way. The American people, of course, loved it. We are more a style oriented people. Substance is for the eggheads. And since North wasn’t apologetic, and since the Democrats were (as always) a bunch of pussies, North won.

He was indicted for 16 felonies but found guilty of only three minor ones. He was given a three year suspended sentence. But on appeal, all convictions were dropped. That’s America: smoke a joint, go to prison for thirty years; subvert the Constitution, become a national hero. And a hero he did become! At least on the right. And his career was made. It’s a funny thing about the right in this country. They constantly claim that liberals are traitors. But they joyously welcome actual traitors.

Happy birthday traitor Oliver North!

The Wisdom of Senate Election Models

United States SenateI’m a little embarrassed to be so fascinated by the argument between Nate Silver and Sam Wang. It was only three days ago that I wrote, The Ballad of Sam and Nate. But it just keeps on going. The most recent round took place on Political Wire, Nate Silver Rebuts Sam Wang. And then this morning, Sam Wang Factchecks Nate Silver. If I weren’t so interested in it, I would tell them both they ought to find a nice quiet boxing ring somewhere.

Today, over at The Daily Beast, Daniel Altman came to much the same conclusion I did over the weekend, Why Is Nate Silver So Afraid of Sam Wang? For most of this, I think you are better off just reading my article. One thing I noted was, “The truth is, at times, The Monkey Cage model has been a big outlier.” But Altman went one step further. He pointed out that at the time he was writing, Silver’s model (FiveThirtyEight) actually disagreed more with The Monkey Cage than it did with Wang’s model (PEC).

Nate SilverAt that time, the FiveThirtyEight model predicted a 58% chance of the Republicans taking control of the Senate. The Monkey Cage predicted 77% and PEC predicted 42%. Thus FiveThirtyEight predicted 19 percentage points lower than The Monkey Cage and 16 percentage points higher than PEC. Today, it is even worse. FiveThirtyEight still predicts 58%, but the others have moved toward the extremes: 84% and 36%. Thus, FiveThirtyEight is 26 percentage points lower than The Monkey Cage and 22 percentage points higher than PEC.

I stick with what I said over the weekend: I like the inertia in the FiveThirtyEight model. And I tend to think that Silver has things right. And if we include the Daily Kos and Huffington Post models to provide the five primary Senate models, we end up with a median that is the FiveThirtyEight model (58%) and a mean that is closer to the FiveThirtyEight model than any other: 60%. Even if we throw out The Monkey Cage and the PEC models as outliers, we get almost the exact same conclusions. The median, of course, is still the FiveThirtyEight model (58%) and the mean is 59%.

Sam WangSo by using the wisdom of the crowd approach that Sam Wang uses with polls, but instead use it with the Senate models, the FiveThirtyEight model is the winner. Of course, that just makes Sam Wang look better. If he were not one of the “big five” models with his most basic — statistics only — model, then what the modeling community as a whole would be telling us would be way off. The median would be 63% and the mean would be 66%. That would be closest to the Daily Kos model, which currently gives the Republicans a 67% chance of taking the Senate. (I wonder about the Daily Kos model, however; it has been stuck at 67% for a very long time, during which time there have been major changes in the polls.)

Daniel Altman’s main point is the same as mine: if the Democrats manage to hold the Senate, it will make Nate Silver look bad, even though it doesn’t mean what people will think it means. And the fact that Wang is doing it with the most boneheaded model imaginable won’t speak well for wonderboy. It will say to many that there is a very simple way to separate the signal and the noise. But maybe this whole election cycle is teaching us something more important. Maybe it’s teaching us that Nate Silver has a really big and obnoxious ego. Just kidding; we already knew that!

What we may be learning is that the best way to model elections is for a lot of smart people to create models the best way they can think of. And based upon this, we not only get a good idea of how the election will turn out, we get a better idea of what matters and what doesn’t. And if Nate Silver gets his fee-fees hurt, so be it. The world is generally improved by large groups of people doing things; it is rarely improved because one Romantic hero steps up and shows us the way. And even if Nate Silver’s model is the best, it just shows that he’s picked the best of The Monkey Cage approach (fundamentals only) and the PEC approach (polls only). That’s the signal. The rest is noise.

Afterword

I screwed up and forgot to include The Upshot model, which currently gives the Republicans a 61% chance of taking the Senate. It is very similar to the FiveThirtyEight model. Adding it to the analysis changes the numbers very little. However, it does tip things toward The Upshot so that the mean of all the models is closer to it. If PEC is removed, the median is exactly The Upshot and the mean is still the Daily Kos. I think the reason I forgot The Upshot model is that I don’t think it is really any different from the FiveThirtyEight model.

What Everyone Knows About the Economy That Just Ain’t So

Chuck ToddMy business partner Will is more courageous than I am: he actually watches the Sunday morning political shows. And he mentioned to me that yesterday on Meet the Press, there was some Republican ranting about how slow the recovery was. (It was most likely Reince Priebus.) This immediately got me hyperventilating. This is the reason I don’t watch these shows. Claims like this are made and then Chuck Todd (or whoever happens to be manning the spot) just lets it go by. If a Republican says the economy is doing poorly and it is the Democrats’ fault, who is Todd to follow it up with a question that took into account, you know, the facts?

For example, Todd could have said, “It’s true that the economy is improving very slowly. But isn’t this mostly because the government has actually cut spending, while Republicans have always greatly increased spending after recessions?” It really annoys me that such things are never said. Politicians can come on these nationally televised shows and spout whatever nonsense they want without the slightest concern that they will be countered.

Here is the perfect graph from a great article last year by Kevin Drum, It’s the Austerity, Stupid: How We Were Sold an Economy-Killing Lie:

Government Spending After Recessions

Does this surprise you? Regular readers will not be surprised, but doubtless the vast majority of Americans would be. And so would Chuck Todd. Because it is just “common sense” that Obama has exploded the federal budget. The truth is that the federal government’s spending has gone up a bit, but this has been more than offset by the great decrease in state and local government spending. But here’s the point: Republicans have always known that the federal government has to really increase spending after a recession. So their focus on cutting spending from 2009 onward shows that their intent has been to kill the economy so they could take political advantage to it. This is why it makes me really mad to hear Republicans talk about the poor recovery from this recession.

Paul Krugman dealt with part of this issue today at his blog, Presidents and Jobs. It shows that private sector job growth under Obama has actually been better than it was under Bush. And this is with a huge assist that Bush got in terms of a Congress that spent a whole lot more money to stimulate the economy.

And also today, Ezra Klein wrote, This Chart Proves the Economy Is Actually, Really, Finally Getting Better. And this is the chart:

Job Growth by Year

Of course, let’s not start dancing in the streets. As Dean Baker would point out if he were writing this article, adding 250,000 per month is good but it isn’t great. And given how many jobs were lost after the financial crisis of 2008, we really do need to be doing better. But the fact remains that the speed of job growth continues to increase. So things are getting better. And the same Republicans who are complaining that job growth of 250,000 per month is too low were the the same ones who were trumpeting 150,000 jobs per month as a great thing in 2004 under Bush. Even Bush’s best year was substantially below this year. But here are the facts:

  1. The economy is creating jobs a decent rate.
  2. The reason we haven’t seen better job creation is because of Republican obstruction.

It’s bad enough that Republicans would do everything they can to harm the economy in order to get political advantage. But it is beyond comprehension why the mainstream media would allow them to get away with it and blame it on the Democratic president. In this way NBC is not much different from Fox News.

Republicans’ Final Bet Against Democracy

Democracy Will Bring OppressionBrian Beutler wrote a really good article over at New Republic yesterday, Republicans Are Playing Dirty Tricks to Worsen Democrats’ Midterm-Voter Problem. He contrasted the efforts of Mark Begich to get voters out to the polls in Alaska with the efforts of the conservative Americans for Prosperity to restrict voting by sending out incorrect information to people “and at least one cat.”

There is an obvious difference here. What the Democrats are doing is good old fashioned retail politics. What the Republicans are doing is simply illegal. Of course, they always claim that such stunts are nothing but mistakes. And it isn’t completely ridiculous to believe that. After all, for something in excess of thirty years, the Republicans have show themselves to be incompetent regarding pretty much anything other than winning elections. Still, the “win any way you can” philosophy is as fundamental to the conservative movement as anything — even going back to the Nixon administration and what they called “rat fucking.”

But let’s just think about the Bush the Younger years. Karl Rove’s great political insight was that the focus of politics should be getting out your voters. Don’t worry about the middle — the undecided voters. Of course, that strategy only works so long as your ideology has a reasonable level of popularity. In the last decade, the Republican Party has lost much of its social conservative appeal. It is more clear than ever that what the party believes in is the rich and their well being. Remember how lots of old people voted for Bush in 2004 because he was going to stick it to the fags, but once he got elected, Bush decided to use his political capital to privatize Social Security? That doesn’t endear a political party to a group of voters.

Not to worry! Now the Republicans have Karl Rove Double Plus Good: don’t worry about your own voters, just stop Democrats from voting. There are many ways that they are going about this. Sadly, most of them are legal. Or at least legal enough such that they are ending up in the courts, where conservative judges are often finding that there is no level of voting restriction that is illegal. This is because, regardless of where you find them in the government, conservatives do not believe in democracy.

That’s what was behind Karl Rove’s idea that the government should be able to do whatever it wanted with 50% of the vote plus one vote. I wrote about this is some detail, The “50 Percent of the Votes, Plus One” Doctrine. This is a typical tactic of a radical group, as I discussed earlier today. When Hugo Chávez tried to get the Venezuelan constitution changed, it lost by a very small amount. When people asked him if he was going to request a recount, he said no. He said he only wanted to change the constitution if the people clearly wanted it. Chávez had his problems, but he was a bigger believer in democracy than the leaders of the Republican Party.

So the current state of politics is not surprising. It is clear that what the Republicans are doing in terms of voting is what they are doing in every area of politics. They are trying to maintain competitiveness in the short term without making any changes to the Party. And it may work this time around. But note that it isn’t working well. Just looking at the Senate: the Republicans are looking at a best case scenario where they will do as well as we would expect given the fundamentals. The fact that the Democrats might hang onto the Senate is just laughable.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Republicans in 2016 and beyond. Their short-term fixes have run their course. If they don’t make some real changes, they will turn into a regional party. What it’s going to take for them to avoid that is a little courage. I’m not at all sure they have it in them. I think that’s what’s behind all the chest pounding. They have to pretend to be tough because they are cowards. This year, that may be enough. But I wouldn’t want to be in the Republicans’ position. And regardless, I’d rather be in the party I’m in — the one that is betting on democracy, not against it.

Will Republicans Destroy the CBO?

Paul KrugmanPaul Krugman has seen the future and he has named it, Voodoo Economics, the Next Generation. It follows upon the news that indicates that the Republicans have a very good chance of taking control of the Senate. (See The Ballad and Sam and Nate for more details.) There isn’t a great deal of damage that the full Republican control of the Congress can do because Obama can veto most anything that comes out of what will quickly be dubbed the Crazy Congress. But there is one thing that the more nerdy of the political observers are very concerned about: the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO was created in 1974 by the Nixon administration to do economic and budgetary analysis for Congress. It has always done a shockingly good job. It often annoys this or that politician, but no one ever complains too loudly, because it is strictly nonpartisan. That doesn’t mean it is always right. In fact, it is very often wrong about its projections. But that’s the world of economic analysis. What’s important is that it provides the standard economics of any given set of circumstances.

A good example of this is that it doesn’t do “dynamic scoring.” It doesn’t make the assumption that cutting taxes will actually increase tax revenues because the cuts will cause the economy to grow so much. This is what Bush the Elder called “voodoo economics” when running against Ronald Reagan in 1980. And he was right. It has simply never been the case that cutting taxes caused more tax revenue. But oh don’t people like Paul Ryan want it to be true! This is because they want to claim to be for balancing the federal budget at the same time that they cut taxes on the rich. This was, you may remember, both the Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan budget plans. They were going to balance the budget, and the first step was to cut taxes.

Krugman made an interesting historical note. As nutty as the Bush the Younger administration was with four years of complete control of Congress, no move was ever made to turn the CBO into a partisan whipping boy. But now, it looks like the Republicans will do just that if they get complete control of the Senate next year. Krugman ended his article:

Would they actually do it? It would destroy the credibility of a very important institution, one that has served the country well. But have you seen any evidence that the modern conservative movement cares about such things?

Back in 2003, Krugman published, The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century. In the introduction, he talked about Henry Kissinger’s doctoral dissertation where he discussed how revolutionary groups disregard norms. They do whatever is in the interest of their cause, and thus do anything and everything that is technically legal.

So no, I haven’t seen any evidence that the modern conservative movement cares about things like maintaining the reputation of the CBO. Or anything else for that matter. The only thing that might hold them back is that the Republicans already think in a postmodern way. Sure the CBO is highly respected by normal commentators. But the Republicans can always get a couple of hacks at the Heritage Foundation to say that your tax cuts will lead to 2.8% unemployment. As they say with global warming, “They have their experts and we have our experts.”

But the Republican thinking on the CBO might be different than that. There is still that, “Reality has a well known liberal bias.” The CBO can be depended to side more with Democratic plans, because they are based on the real world. Ruining the CBO, even if it were later fixed, would take some of the gloss off it. And people outside the Republican Party might think of it as “just another partisan source.” What’s more, destroying the reputation of the CBO could lead to its elimination. The Republicans would love that.

Regardless of what happens to the CBO, one thing is certain: if the Republicans gain complete control of Congress next year, they will do as much harm as they possibly can. That’s what revolutionary groups always do.

George Westinghouse Elephant Lover

George WestinghouseI’m back from my trip. I spent almost all day yesterday sleeping. But today, we are back to the usual schedule, except, of course, that I didn’t get the birthday post up at midnight. What are you gonna do? I wasn’t going to crawl myself out of bed in the middle of night. And it was probably for the best, because today is not a great day for birthdays. I mean, I think Carole Lombard is cute as a really, really cute button, and also very funny. But I did her last year anyway.

On this day in 1846, the great inventor George Westinghouse was born. Of course, that was a time when it was pretty easy to be an inventor. There was a lot of stuff going on. That’s why the government has allowed the patent system to get so out of hand now. If you have enough money, you can get a patent on walking, and the rest of us would have to pay royalties to walk into the kitchen.

When it comes to inventors, people tend to think of Thomas Edison. They shouldn’t. To begin with, Edison was kind of a jerk. But more than that, he worked tirelessly to saddle our country with a terrible electrical system. You see, he had all the patents related to direct current (DC) electricity. Westinghouse had the patents related to alternating current (AC) electricity. DC is a perfectly good system for running small devices, but it is terrible for delivering electricity over large distances. There is too much line loss. Ultimately, Westinghouse won out and we got AC.

Part of Edison’s campaign against AC was to tie it to its use in the electric chair. This is quite interesting, because Edison was a very smart and knowledgeable man. He knew that for the purpose of large scale electricity distribution, AC was the way to go. But his own personal profits (Edison was already ridiculously wealthy) trumped the common good. And that brings us to the story of Topsy.

Topsy was a circus elephant in the New York area. She bounced around between owners, eventually ending up at Luna Park under the care of William Alf. Alf was caught abusing Topsy with a pitchfork, causing him to release her to roam free in the streets. This (and not the pitchfork), got Alf arrested. Later Alf tried to ride Topsy into the police station. Alf was apparently a drunk. Anyway, Luna Park fired Alf, but then they didn’t know what to do with Topsy, so they decided to kill her. They were going to hang her, but the ASPCA said that would be cruel. So they decided to electrocute her.

When Edison found out, he was thrilled. He sent a bunch of people out to help in the murder and to shoot the film, Electrocuting an Elephant. Obviously, the murder of Topsy did not win Edison the contract to create an electrical grid. But the truth is that Edison would have electrocuted half of the American people to get more money. Of course, none of this is to say that Westinghouse was a wonderful guy. But it would be hard to come close to Edison on the “evil greedy bastard” scale.

Happy birthday George Westinghouse!

Ebola, Malaria, and Boner Pills

Do You Have Ebola?

Here is a simple test from Ezra Klein over at Vox, This Paragraph Perfectly Sums up America’s Overreaction to Ebola. Look, I get it: it isn’t just Americans. Humans are like this. We don’t think statistically; we are afraid of whatever is being pushed by the media. This is why people are so afraid that their children are going to be kidnapped by some stranger but not at all concerned that they are going to drive in one of their friends’ cars.

Klein pointed out one of my favorite statistics: there are 200 million cases of malaria each year. It continues to be the biggest medical problem in the world today. But what are we worried about? Ebola. And there were just 7,000 confirmed cases of Ebola in this outbreak. That’s during the worst Ebola outbreak in history. Oh! My! God! How will be ever survive?

I don’t mean for anyone to get the impression that the Ebola outbreak isn’t serious for those who are being effected by it. But it’s pretty minor in the grand scheme of things and it isn’t an issue in the United States at all. It reminds me very much of the Ice Bucket Challenge for ALS. As bad a disease as ALS is, it is a minor disease. And all that “awareness” could have been focused on a disease that had a larger effect on humanity.

And this brings me back to what I always come back to: malaria. Why have we not cured it? Because it is a disease that affects mostly poor people. As a result, drug companies don’t spend their research dollars working on it. But each new year comes another drug to cure erectile dysfunction. If ever there were a reason to nationalize drug research, it would be this.

The claim that we need the “free market” in drugs and long patent protections is that drug companies wouldn’t innovate if they couldn’t sell a drug for hundreds of times what it would sell for in an actually free market. I’m not sure this logic ever flew, but it certainly isn’t the case today. I say get rid of drug patents, and use the estimated $60 billion per year that we save to have the government hire scientists to do research. As it is, that is far more than the drug companies spend on R&D.

Contrary to what conservatives claim, the free market isn’t perfect. What’s more, patents distort the free market. And finally, the way we bring new drugs to market is stupid. It is a way to bring only drugs to market that rich people want, because they can pay the exorbitant prices. Given that the public is currently freaked out about Ebola, that could actually do a bit of good. But as I’ve already pointed out, even Ebola isn’t that important a disease. And within a month or two, rich Americans will have forgotten about Ebola and so the drug companies will be back to pushing boner pills.