Income Inequality Problems

Joseph StiglitzIn recent years, Joseph Stiglitz has focused on the issue of income inequality. And last week, he testified before the Senate Budget Committee. The topic was, Opportunity, Mobility, and Inequality in Today’s Economy. It’s all standard stuff around here, but it can’t be repeated enough. Every day I hear parts of the conservative disinformation campaign. There’s always someone like Greg Mankiw around to argue, “We really don’t have inequality; and even if we do, we have equality of opportunity; and even if we don’t, it doesn’t really matter; and even if it does, there’s nothing we can do about it; and even if there is, we shouldn’t because income inequality is good!” If such people were honest, they would just say, “We don’t care!”

Stiglitz’s paper is fairly short and if you are interested in the subject, I highly recommend reading it. But I’ll give you the rundown here. He makes eight points, but there is overlap, so I’ve whittled them down to six points:

Inequality is the result of policies. This gets back to what I was talking about this morning in, Warren Buffett Counter-Counterargument. Conservatives claim the privilege of the rich is “God given” or “natural.” It’s the old libertarian belief that capitalism is natural, as though modern capitalism is anything close to that.

The Rich are compensated according to their value to the economy. This is part of that same “natural” argument. Robert Reich wrote an excellent article countering this, The “Paid-What-You’re-Worth” Myth. But Stiglitz makes a great point, “If we look at those at the top, they are not those who have made the major innovations that have transformed our economy and society; they are not the discoverers of DNA, the laser, the transistor; not the brilliant individuals who made the discoveries without which we would not have had the modern computer.” No they aren’t! They are people who are good at “figuring out how to get a larger share of the nation’s pie, rather than enhancing the size of that pie.”

Trickle-down is a lie. Milton Friedman’s old canard that income inequality was great because everyone was doing better has been shown to be a cruel lie.

Inequality is bad for economic growth. Another conservative argument is that inequality is good for growth. Stiglitz points out that the 2008 financial crisis proved that this was a lie. But the truth is that our economic performance for the last 35 years has shown this to be true. The only reason anyone has ever taken this talking point seriously is because the rich push it.

Inequality makes us a less democratic nation. Just check out McCutcheon vs FEC where the Supreme Court Strikes Blow for Oligarchy.

Inequality is bad for the federal budget. I don’t think this is a particularly important issue. It is true. But a more important truth is that conservatives don’t care about the budget deficit. They just use it as a convenient cudgel to push for cutting social spending. If they really cared about the issue, they would call for at least some increase in taxes. They don’t so they don’t care.

It’s sad that we even have to discuss income inequality. It is yet another issue like global warming. I discussed the three stages of global warming denial in, It’s Raining, But Not for Long. At one time, income equality was an issue open to debate. But the more clear the data get, the more extreme the conservative arguments get. Yet they aren’t held accountable. The newest excuse for doing nothing is accepted as being as valid as the last one was.

We really should be talking about solutions. I started a series of articles, “Income Inequality Solutions.” But I haven’t worked on in the last couple of months. I’ll have to get back to that. Until then, here are the first two articles:

Income Inequality Solutions 1: Estate Tax
Income Inequality Solutions 2: Higher Inflation

The Global Cooling Myth

Global Cooling - Media Matters

This info graphic is from Media Matters, The Junk Science of Fox News’ Favorite “Global Cooling” Myth. It is a very useful push back against global warming deniers who say that we can’t believe the scientific consensus about global warming today just as we couldn’t believe the consensus about global cooling then. As you can see, there was no consensus about global cooling. In fact, then as now, there was a consensus on global warming.

The mechanism for global cooling was not wrong, however. Part of the pollution humans create is particulate—primarily SO2. By putting this in the air, we block out solar insolation. And the surface of the earth cools. There are two reasons why this isn’t a big deal. First, we pollute less—especially here in the United States, which is the biggest problem. Second, the effect is dwarfed by the heating effects of greenhouse gases.

What’s more, particulate-based solar forcing is included in the climate models. So the work on global cooling is included in today’s work on global warming. So the idea that scientists are just running around yelling about this or that issue is just untrue. The work is all part of the same process. The cooling and warming people are all one now: the warming people. That’s how science works.

If broadly applied, the argument we get from Fox News and other climate change deniers would stop us from ever accepting science. After all, how can we know that the earth orbits the sun? Only 500 years ago, scientists all said the sun went around the earth. That may seem fanciful, but I really don’t see any difference. The nature of science is that it is self-correcting, not that it is always right. And that self-correcting aspect of science has led us to today where we know that the earth is warming because of human activities. The climate change deniers are not involved in science, they simply want to believe that nothing is wrong, and nothing will convince them otherwise.

What is especially annoying about the global cooling claim is that it was always a short term phenomenon. Particulate matter doesn’t stay in the atmosphere very long. So if humans had wanted to, they could have reversed global cooling within months if not weeks. Global warming, on the other hand, cannot be reversed for decades at least.

I get asked a fair amount why I don’t write more about global warming, given my background. I suppose there are two reasons. First, it isn’t that interesting. The science is clear, and it is basically the same as the simple radiative-convective models predicted decades ago. Second, it’s frustrating. We aren’t having a debate. The deniers are just people who refuse to accept the science. It’s like so much else in the modern world where we know what to do to relieve suffering, but we do nothing because some small group has a vested interest in not doing it.

At one time, many conservatives accepted global warming and at least talked about doing something. But the oil companies started pushing their interests over those of the entire world. And the conservatives jumped on board their bandwagon, and now we can’t do anything. And I fear it will continue on like this until it gets very bad. At that point, the oil companies will have diversified. And all the deniers will say, “Oops.” There will be widespread suffering. But those who profited from the delay will not suffer the least consequences.

So what is the global cooling meme all about? It’s just one of many tactics that the denial community uses to avoid talking about the science—to avoid doing anything. There will be hell to pay. But not by those who are most responsible.

Ramesh Ponnuru Obamacare Warning to Conservatives

Ramesh PonnuruRamesh Ponnuru is a remarkable conservative writer. I’ve used him more than any writer in my Quotations posts. And earlier this week, he was in fine form, Stop Waiting for Obamacare to Implode. Reading a bit between the lines, it is a devastating attack on Republican hubris.

Basically, he’s arguing that the Republican Party should have been working on a replacement plan for Obamacare all along. “The likelihood of replacement would be higher if there was an alternative that didn’t take away people’s insurance—one that promised to cover roughly as many people as Obamacare does, or even more.” And he concludes with a clever twist on the conservative meme that Obamacare is taking people’s choices away, “Opponents of Obamacare should always have been thinking along these lines. Now they have less and less choice.”

It’s good to see Ponnuru talk about this stuff. But he’s still living in a fantasy world. And I’m really not sure if he knows it or not. There is a question I have about the smarter conservative writers: are they really as clueless as they claim to be about what conservative politicians are doing? Because reading Ponnuru you can’t escape the impression that he thinks that conservative complaints about Obamacare are substantive. I mean, even his own idea is just a small variation on Obamacare that the administration is allowing Arkansas to do. Does he really think that if the law had been written that way for all states that conservatives would back it?

There are two things that are going on. First: Obamacare is the conservative healthcare reform plan. If conservatives are against it, it is because they are against healthcare reform. That brings up to the second thing. The Heritage Foundation plan on which Obamacare is based was only put out as a way to stop single payer. This is what Jonathan Chait calls, The Heritage Uncertainty Principle. He describes it thusly, “Conservative health-care-policy ideas reside in an uncertain state of quasi-existence. You can describe the policies in the abstract, sometimes even in detail, but any attempt to reproduce them in physical form will cause such proposals to disappear instantly.” So the thing is that conservatives don’t want healthcare reform at all. That’s why most of their proposals are just grab bags of policies they want for other reasons—like tort “reform.”

I think that Ponnuru, above all, is just a bit of a pragmatist. Like other conservatives, he would like to take from the poor and give to the rich because, “Freedom!” But he understands that at this point, with more people getting health insurance, the government can’t just take it away without causing a huge backlash. And thus, conservatives have to make the best of a bad situation. I’m sure he’s shouting at the wind, however. The modern conservative movement seems more interested in standing on principle than getting anything done.

That is actually entirely typical of the Obamacare legislation itself. If the Republican Party had decided to make the best of the situation, they could have gotten a bill that was more to their liking. But instead they went for it all and lost. But even as it stands, Obamacare is a conservative law. The old cliche is that politics is the art of the possible. So no one is ever fully happy with legislation. But modern Republicans apparently don’t think they can support anything unless they love it all. It goes back to John Boehner’s 2010 deal where he got 98% of what he wanted. That wasn’t enough.

So while it is nice to see Ponnuru applying a little practicality to politics, it’s depressing to watch him spend half of his article pandering to conservatives. He went through the normal things that conservatives talk about: the enrollment target doesn’t mean the program will work; it may not be actuarially stable; and it may not increase coverage of the uninsured. On that last point, we know that it actually has. But the whole thing is typical of the conservative movement. Ponnuru is a long time conservative—a senior editor for National Review—and yet he has to constantly assure conservative readers that he hasn’t left the reservation.

Of course, based on on Ponnuru’s article, I think he may be more positive about Obamacare than I am. I can’t get around the fact that there is a long line of legal challenges to the law. I tend to think that the law will muddle on through, however. The Supreme Court is dedicated to turning the United States into an oligarchy. But only three of the necessary five judges are absolutely committed to making the lives of working Americans “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” So we can be grateful for that. For now.

Politics and the Hierarchy of Needs

Abraham MaslowTwenty-five years ago, Margaret Thatcher’s infamous poll tax (officially known as the Community Charge) was put into effect. It was the beginning of the end for the “Lead Lady.” But I’m afraid that Americans don’t much understand what it was all about. Until that point, the tax was basically a property tax: the fancier your digs, the more you paid. So it was fairly progressive. Thatcher had it changed to a flat tax. This is a standard conservative desire to flatten the tax code. This is always portrayed as a matter of fairness, but it is nothing of the kind. The more money people have, the less taxes effect their live styles. The real point of such taxes is to push money from poor to rich. If conservatives ever got their beloved flat tax, two things would be obvious. First, the rich would pay less because they have the resources to hide income and wealth. Second, conservatives would immediately work to make per capita taxes equal, rather than tax rates. Margaret Thatcher was an evil woman who was not only bad for the people of the United Kingdom, she was terrible for the United States in how she inspired Ronald Reagan. I wish there were a hell where they could both rot for eternity.

I’m not very keen on my choices for birthdays today, so I guess we just go along with last year’s man: the great psychologist Abraham Maslow who was born in 1908. It actually makes perfect sense, because I’m on a bit of a political rant. You see, Maslow’s great contribution to psychology was the Hierarchy of Needs. The idea is that some needs are more basic than others as you see in the following illustration:

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

The reason this is political is that modern conservatives don’t seem to accept this fundamental concept. Look at Paul Ryan who goes around proclaiming that self-esteem is more important than food. Of course, notice where “acceptance of facts” is in the top level of the hierarchy. It would appear that conservatives are stuck down on the bottom level where they are afraid that someone may steal their food from them. I’m quite serious about this. If you listen to the rich whine about society, you would think they were starving and the poor were trying to steal their last piece of bread.

It’s sad that conservatism has sunk so low that something as uncontroversial as the Hierarchy of Needs is now controversial. But that is modern America, ain’t it? Nothing seems to be given because conservatives will abandon absolutely anything (Including especially democracy itself!) in the name of pushing their ideology that is (1) unpopular and (2) unproductive. I hope that hell saves a place for them along with Maggie and Ron.

Regardless, happy birthday Abraham Maslow!

Afterword

For the record, I would never wish the standard Christian conception of hell on anyone—that includes people even worse that Maggie and Ron. I just hope they are forced forever to hang out in the company of fellow conservatives. After a century of that, they might be begging for the flames. It does make you wonder about Christians who believe in that kind of hell though. How could anyone worship a god that would consign fellow humans to that kind of torment for the sin of not cracking the code or just being born in the wrong place. I can’t imagine ever worshiping an evil god. I don’t understand why Christians do.

Miracle Reagan Toast Discovered

Reagan Toast

Conservatives throughout the country are converging on Shawnee, Oklahoma to see what many are calling final proof of the divinity of Ronald Reagan: his likeness appearing on a piece of toast. Joe le Plumberre, the second cousin by marriage of Senator Jim Inhofe, found the image on his toast on 27 March 2014. “I was about to butter it when I met a beneficent toasty gaze that I instantly recognized,” the retired Secret Service janitorial supervisor said. “At first I thought it was Jesus, but then I realized I had used white bread and not rye.”

Pastor Rick Unwarranted spent hours analyzing and discussing the miraculous toast with other conservative clerics. He said they were forced to confront some uncomfortable questions. “Is it possible,” the pastor asked, “That Jesus has come back and He was Ronald Reagan?” When confronted about the the issue, the clerics released a statement, “Toast does not lie.”

Many of the visitors of the Wonder Bread™ see it as a life changing event. Amy Simmer of the group Tea Party Excess says this is great moment. “We have long recognized the divinity of Ronald Reagan,” she noted. “How else do you explain his inspired term as president where he balanced the budget while never selling guns to terrorists? This toast is proof that cannot be refudiated. Now no one can misunderestimate Reagan’s legacy!”

But not all people are so convinced. Dr Buzz Kilgoy dismisses all the claims of supernatural forces. An expert culinary pyrographer, Dr Kilgoy once used a brulee torch to recreated the Last Supper on a baguette. “But I’m not saying it’s a fake,” he said. “It’s just a random toasting event.” He added that images of political leaders date back to at least Alexander the Great and the Wonder Pita™.

Currently, Mr le Plumberre is planning to sell the toast on E-Bay. “Jesus’ image on food products are a dime a dozen,” he said. “But this is actually cool.” The opening bid is set at $50,000 and it includes the double slice toaster (hopefully signed by Bill O’Reilly) and the companion piece of toast, which interestingly contains an image of Jane Wyman.

There was initial speculation that the Reagan toast might inspire a religious movement that worships the 40th president. But research indicates that the Republican Party already exists.

Happy Cesar Chavez Day!

Cesar ChavezHere is California today, it is Cesar Chavez Day. And it also happens to be his birthday, which is tidy. But just like Martin Luther King Jr, we celebrate the mythic Chavez rather than the man. And that’s just fine. But the man deserves to be remembered. He was a curious fellow. For example, he was a vegan and he seems to have been against the notion of money. Although I don’t agree with him on either issue, I greatly respect the beliefs and I think it speaks well of any many to have principled beliefs that counter the social norms.

His life story is also right out of The Grapes of Wrath, too. His father lost the family farm during the Great Depression. He cleared 80 acres of land in exchange for the deed to the farm. But the deal was broken so the family moved to California and became migrant workers. Chavez quit school after the 7th grade to work in the fields. Other than two years in the Navy, he was a farm worker for ten years before getting into organizing. The rest, as they say, is literally history.

Some people find it ironic that Chavez and Dolores Huerta and their organization were very much for restricting immigration. But this is to misunderstand what the United Farm Workers (UFW) was doing. Unions are not like churches, going around trying to make the world a better place. Unions exist to represent their workers and balance the power of management. Then as today, the business community tacitly encourages illegal immigration. They want an over-supply of labor so they can pay as little as possible. Immigrants (Especially undocumented!) are in effect scabs that undermine the bargaining power of unions.

The following video is remarkable. Chavez is talking about how boycotts work. But at the beginning, he says an amazingly insightful thing: that voting doesn’t help the poor. That’s interesting because recent political science research finds that the opinions of the poor (and to a large extent the middle class too) simply have no effect on how politicians vote. Just the same, Chavez was big on getting the poor to vote. He’s just making a point that if you want to make change happen, the best way is to make the rich suffer by depriving them of money. That is the most direct way to make positive change.

I’m very pleased that today in Cesar Chavez Day in California. I wish it were a national holiday. We have a holiday for one of our richest presidents who kept slaves. We have a holiday celebrating our independence that kept slavery in existence. We have a holiday celebrating how native people kept early settlers from starving so those settlers could go on to wage a genocide against the native people. Even though Martin Luther King Jr was deeply concerned about workers’ rights, that’s not why we celebrate him. May Day is long gone and most Americans don’t seem to know the difference between Labor Day and Memorial Day. We could use a holiday that celebrates the workers’ struggle in an unambiguous way. Cesar Chavez Day should be a bigger deal. And in another decade, it probably will be.

Bill Maher Gives Good Advice to Dems

Bill MaherBill Maher is kind of a jerk. He’s also pretentious and he thinks he’s way smarter than he actually is. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t right. Or insightful. And on Friday’s episode of Real Time, he had some great advice for the Democratic Party. I know its great advice because I’ve been offering it to the Democrats myself for a while. It all comes down to my long held believe that the Democrats should stop trying to win the “swing voters.” For one thing, I’m not even sure such voters exist. And if they do, they don’t jump from Democrat to Republican based upon policy. If anything is going to win their votes, it is going to be clarity of vision.

It is hard for Republicans because their policies are really unpopular. They need to twist themselves into knots to convince even their own base to vote against their own interests just to get “those people.” The Democrats are in a much easier position. Their policies are really popular. The only reason they seem to have trouble getting votes is that Democrats don’t want to own the policies they supposedly support. You know: the policies that the people like. So we have this screwed up world where Republicans proudly say that rape victims should be forced to give birth to rapists’ children, even though it is a very unpopular position. And we have Democrats who are circumspect about their support for Social Security and Medicare.

In the following “New Rules” segment, Maher points out this issue with far more humor and flair than I would ever be capable of. But I was especially impressed with what he said about Obama always talking about how great Reagan was—never mentioning Carter. That’s always made me angry. Reagan isn’t such an icon just because conservatives love him. Part of his appeal is that the last two Democratic presidents have gone out of their way to say how much they think he was great. Except he wasn’t. He just got credit for the Paul Volcker economic recovery. And in pretty much every way, Reagan sucked.

So I hope that the Democratic Party takes Bill Maher’s words to heart. It is really depressing to be a Democrat and it has been for a long time. It isn’t about winning elections. I could deal with losing elections, if we did it on our own liberal terms. But as it is, even when we win, we lose. You can bet if the Republicans take over Washington in 2016, there will be major changes. If the Democrats take over, it will be more of the same: a tad of financial reform here, a bit of healthcare reform there. I don’t blame the Democratic base from staying home in off year elections. What surprises me is that they show up in presidential elections.

Why We Hate Cheney More Than Bush

Martin LongmanMartin Longman got me thinking in his article, An Actually Weak President. It’s about how Dick Cheney goes around calling President Obama “weak,” while no one does the same to Bush the Younger, even though everyone knew that Cheney was the person actually in charge. He said, “You’ll know that the current president is as weak as Bush when students line up to protest former vice-president Joe Biden and completely ignore Obama.” That’s a good point. But I’m most interested in his question, “[W]hy do people have such an easy time condemning Cheney [of war crimes], or even Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and Rice, and such a hard time condemning George W Bush?”

His answer to that is represented in the “weak president” hypothesis. I don’t really go along with that. The problem is that most people are pretty forgiving. As long as people’s war crimes are in the past, they’re willing to let them slide. But Cheney is so vocal about it—so in your face. Just this last week, Cheney told students at American University, “If I would have to do it all over again, I would. The results speak for themselves.” If Cheney were in prison (where he ought to be), that kind of statement would never fly with the parole board.

This is why all along, I thought we should have a truth and reconciliation commission. Obama’s idea of looking forward was a joke. I am not a vindictive person. I am extremely forgiving. But people do not grow when they don’t admit error. And the same goes for governments and countries. It was and still is important for America to publicly admit that its government did torture. Instead, we pretend that it never did happen. And that means we not only have to listen to Cheney go around telling us that we are only safe because he used “enhanced interrogation techniques” (torture), but we will do the same thing again in a moment of crisis.

I also disagree with Longman in that many of us have no problem whatsoever blaming Bush. The truth is that I’ve never believed Bush’s “aw-shucks” routine. While I don’t believe he is especially smart, he is wily. And ultimately, he was in charge. We saw in the last two years of his presidency, when he pushed Cheney aside. If Bush were out there once a month explaining how it was necessary to “get tough” on the bad guys, I’d talk more about him. But he’s made the smart decision to paint and shut up.

I’m sure that I’m pretty much in agreement with Longman. I’d really like to shut up all of the neoconservatives. And I don’t just mean those in the administration. If America had at least admitted wrong, these people wouldn’t be allowed to walk around as conquering heroes. They would at least have to admit that they represent a minority viewpoint that had been repudiated. But that was not to be. And it is especially galling given that if the political parties had been reversed, I feel certain that administration officials would have gone to prison. So the kind treatment of the present administration will not be reciprocated. In fact, we already see this with the House Republicans just itching for any chance to impeach.

Joe Biden Gets a Dwarf Planet

Joe BidenAs you probably know, I’m a fan of Joe Biden. But this isn’t because of his policy ideas. He’s quite all right in that area, but there are a number of things I don’t like. For example, he has always been a “tough on crime” guy, and that has led to our extreme prison problems and the racial inequality that has gone along with them. But Biden is probably the best retail politician in America. No one seems as genuine as he does.

It’s always strange to me that conservatives paint him as a joke—like the Democratic version of Dan Quayle. But in Biden’s “gaffes,” I see authenticity. It may be part of his political brilliance, but all these unscripted moments just highlight that he is basically a decent guy. We don’t get comments about how God wanted a woman to be raped. Just the same, if you actually look at Bidens “gaffes,” there isn’t much there. Just as with Quayle, the media are always circling, looking for something they can grab to further their ultimately thin narrative.

Biden does demonstrate a certain friendly ethnocentrism. In the 2008 campaign, he said of Obama, “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that’s a storybook, man.” That definitely boarders on racism and it is the worst thing I’ve ever heard him say. But generally, what are called gaffes are just kind of odd and often charming. That’s certainly the case with most of those on Time‘s Top 10 Joe Biden Gaffes. For example:

Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be Vice President of the United States of America. Let’s get that straight. She’s a truly close personal friend. She is qualified to be President of the United States of America. She’s easily qualified to be Vice President of the United States of America. Quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me. But she’s first rate.

All this is to say that when it comes to politicians, Joe Biden is one of the better ones. So it was with much delight that I learned that scientists are calling the detached trans-Neptunian object 2012 VP113 “Biden.” Clearly, they have nicknamed the object because of the “VP.” But it rather fits because the object is unusual. It orbits at a huge distance from the sun: never closer than 80 AUs (distance from the earth to the sun). That’s the largest of any object known. For contrast, Pluto gets within 30 AUs from the sun. It is assumed to be an ice planetoid with a diameter of roughly 300 miles—about a quarter the size of Pluto. And given that it is probably spherical, it would be considered a dwarf planet.

VP113 and Sedna
The paths of 2012 VP113 (red) and Sedna (orange), with the Kuiper Belt (blue) and the planets (purple)

I think it would be totally awesome if the name Biden sticks. It just makes sense. We have a planetoid zipping around the solar system, doing its own thing without much of a care what other people think. I’m fond of saying we should build statues to great people like Richard Stallman and Matilda Joslyn Gage. Well, Biden needs his own dwarf planet!

Moral Cowardice in Good Night, and Good Luck

Good Night, and Good LuckLast night, I watched Good Night, and Good Luck for the first time since it came out. I didn’t enjoy it as much as I did the first time. The screenplay is thin. There are lots of musical interludes and similar tricks to fill out the film to its short (for a drama) hour and a half running time. What’s more, the two main characters — Edward R Murrow and Fred Friendly — are the least interested in the whole film. I especially would have liked to know more about Don Hollenbeck, the liberal newscaster who is viciously attacked as being a communist sympathizer.

But the film wants to be more about the battle between Murrow and Joseph McCarthy. And that’s great! There’s a lot of wonderful material. Of course, there is a bit of a problem. Murrow is not as big a hero as the movie makes out. These concentrated attacks were in 1954 — well on the road to McCarthy’s downfall. Even McCarthy taking over the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations was on his way down. Still, in the television industry, not known for its guts, Murrow’s work was laudable. But the film isn’t much interested in the politics.

What particularly bothered me was how the film danced around the central issues. This was not just a matter of simplifying the concepts for the screen. The film wants to tell a very simple story: McCarthy was a bad guy because he was going after innocent people. But that’s not the issue at all. McCarthy was bad because he stood against everything this country supposedly holds dear. In the name of stopping the country from becoming the freedom-destroying Soviet Union, he tried to turn us into the freedom-destroying United States.

The freedom to say what the powerful like is no freedom at all. That’s why I’m always so amazed at supposed truth tellers in politics. We have Alan Simpson who tells us the “truth” that we must cut Social Security. We have Obama who tells us the “truth” that black parents must provide better nutrition to their kids. We have Rick Santelli who tells us the “truth” that underwater homeowners are losers who we shouldn’t support. So these “truth tellers” are attacking low income senior citizens, poor African Americans, and poorer homeowners. These are all “truths” that the power elite want to hear. There are no mainstream figures who tell uncomfortable truths to the powerful.

The film highlights McCarthy’s attacks on Annie Lee Moss. But it is implied that Moss was not a communist. Well, the truth is that she almost certainly had been to communist party meetings in the 1930s. By Joe McCarthy’s way of thinking, that made her a communist—and one who shouldn’t be allowed to have a job, I guess. But the issue should be whether she was a traitor: was she working to overthrow the government by violence? No she was not. In fact, in 1954, she wasn’t even anything like a communist. But there should be no punishment for having heterodox beliefs. If Moss then or ever wanted to turn the United States into a communist utopia via voting consistent with the Constitution, we had no right to complain.

At the same time, today we have people very much following in McCarthy’s footsteps. Interestingly, watching the actual video used reminded me very much of watching Darrell Issa who now heads the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. But apart from that, we have conservatives all over the nation who say quite explicitly that they are prepared to “take my country back” by violence. These people are very much a concern—or they would be if they were more than just talkers. Yet because they claim to love America—just as McCarthy did—they are somehow beyond reproach. I will only note that Lenin and Stalin doubtless said that everything they did was for mother Russia.

Good Night, and Good Luck glosses over all of these issues. And as a result, it turns McCarthy into an easy target—a buffoon more than a real threat. And it takes away much of the triumph of Murrow and Friendly. If a film wants to be political, it should simmer in it. This film tips a toe into the political water and removes it. Then it tips a toe into the personality water and removes it. And this repeats over and over again. If it had committed to either direction, it might have been a great film. As it is, it’s good enough but only barely worth the time.

Nate Silver’s Bizarre NYT Parody

Nate SilverNate Silver wrote a bizarre article at FiveThirtyEight last night, For Columnist, a Change of Tone. It is a parody of an article in The New York Times and it attacks Paul Krugman, implying that Krugman has been attacking the new website because it left The Times. Since it is done as satire, it is hard to know what to make of it.

As you probably know, Silver became something of a media star when he predicted the last few elections quite accurately. And liberals especially liked him in 2012 because his model told liberals what they wanted to hear: Obama was winning the election. At no time during the general election did his model have Romney even close to Obama. That included the period after Obama’s less than impressive first debate. Silver was the main counterweight to all the pundits who talked about ridiculous notions of “political momentum” and the distribution of yard signs.

Paul KrugmanIf we take Silver’s article as fundamentally serious, it shows that Silver really doesn’t understand the nature of the many complaints about his new venture. All it shows is that there is a correlation: since leaving The New York Times, Krugman has been critical of Silver. But that’s not the only thing that happened when Silver left. He also greatly expanded his work and has put out articles about global warming and economics. These are fields that are distinctly different from poll aggregation. So the correlation could just as reasonably cause one to conclude, “Krugman doesn’t like Silver since he branched out into fields he clearly knows nothing about.” Or there could be other reasons. The “leaving The Times” narrative seems highly unlikely.

But is Silver serious? He ended his article with a paragraph that I might have used to lampoon him:

While it can be easy to extrapolate a spurious trend from a limited number of data points, the differences are highly statistically significant. At his current pace, Mr. Krugman will write 425 more blog posts about FiveThirtyEight between now and the 2016 presidential election.

I get the impression that Silver isn’t really sure what he wants to say. On the one hand, he seems to be bothered by all the attacks on his new site. On the other, he seems wryly aware that his statistical work has been thin.

The best take on the article is that Silver is saying that everyone is jumping on the site based upon little data. But the article makes it appear that Krugman was right in his initial assessment of FiveThirtyEight, “What would be really bad is if this turns into a Freakonomics-type exercise, all contrarianism without any appreciation for the importance of actual expertise.” I’m afraid so.

The biggest problem, is not the current criticism of Nate Silver. It is rather how much praise was heaped upon him before. I really liked his work during the 2012 election. But he was not the only one doing that kind of work and not even the best. To his credit, Silver always said that there was nothing special about what he was doing. And as is now becoming clear, there is nothing very deep about Silver’s thinking. For that reason, it is probably best that he stick to sports and other kind of “horse racing” analysis.

The Real Global Warming Debate

Global Warming DenialRecent research proves it: scientific opinions on global warming really do differ. The executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, James Lawrence Powell, looked at every peer reviewed journal article he could find on the subject of global warming in 2013. He found 10,855. Of those two did not accept that the earth was experiencing human caused global warming. Two percent, you ask? No. Two articles. That’s 0.018 percent, or just 0.00018 if you like simple fractions.

Let’s give this some perspective. Four percent of Americans think that “shape-shifting reptilian people control our world by taking on human form and gaining political power to manipulate our societies.” That’s over 200 times more credible than global warming denial. A full six percent of Democrats think that Obama is the Antichrist. That’s 300 times more credible. Twenty-seven percent of Americans think that Jesus is “definitely” coming back in the next 40 years. That’s 1,500 more credible!

Now, it’s true: Powell’s work is not on scientists; it’s on scientific papers. And there are reasons why climate change deniers might not publish. One thing could be that they just can’t get papers published because of institutional inertia. But that isn’t as credible a reason as you might think. Journals like Nature and Science are desperate to publish shocking and disruptive papers. So what generally stops these supposedly shocking papers from being published is that they are bad science. I’ve read a number of Heartland Institute papers and they are all the same: they cherry pick data. Any data that conflict with their thesis is simply ignored, not even argued against.

But the fact that there are basically no papers most likely indicates that global warming denial is not a scientific enterprise. It is something done by people with ideological axes to grind. They don’t have to do science; they just know. So they aren’t scientists and it is wrong to say that the science is divided on the point.

It rather reminds me of the Ken Ham and Bill Nye debate. Repeatedly, Ham said something along the lines of, “You have your scientists and we have ours.” Well, sure. In the debate, it was clear that by “scientists,” he meant “two scientists,” because he brought the same two guys up again and again. And that’s about what we have in the global warming debate.

I don’t think that Powell’s work is definitive. I’m sure there were more than two real scientific papers published last year that had skeptical authors. But they are skeptical about little things. They aren’t out there thinking that if they could just get their big break they’d blow the lid off this vast scientific and political conspiracy. But that’s what the ideologues think. It just ain’t so.

The next time you hear about the scientific debate that is raging over human caused global warming, remember the kind of scale they are talking about. On one side: 10,853 articles. On the other: 2 articles. Going with the 2 article side is like not wearing a motorcycle helmet because in an accident, it might fall off and land on your toe.