The Nightly Show Is Very Promising

The Nightly Show

I watched the first episode of The Nightly Show. I’ve been looking forward to it, because I think that Larry Wilmore is brilliant. Just the same, it is replacing The Colbert Report so I was concerned that it mightn’t live up to my expectations. There is the issue that Wilmore’s character on The Daily Show was just as limited as Colbert had been. But given that Colbert was a parody of the self-parody Bill O’Reilly, I thought that Wilmore’s subtle and intelligent satire mightn’t translate to a half hour show.

There was nothing to worry about. The Nightly Show seems to be patterned on Politically Incorrect. The show opens with Wilmore doing a monologue. But unlike it was with Bill Maher, it isn’t a stand-up comedy kind of thing. As far as I know, Wilmore is not and never has been a stand-up comedian (again, like Colbert). It was more a humorous essay. And it was strong and very funny. I know that people think that a first episode ought to be really good because all the writers get weeks to work on it. But this is not my experience. Shows normally get better over time.

The B and C blocks were panels. Last night’s was made up Shenaz Treasury, Cory Booker, Talib Kweli, and Bill Burr as “the white guy.” It is a shame that these shows feel the need to include actual politicians like Booker. As politicians go, he isn’t terrible. But the truth is that politicians in this day are so media polished that they literally never say anything that is interesting. And Booker got far too much time to talk. Treasury got little time to talk, although she did bring up the canard about black-on-black crime, noting that roughly 84% of crime is white-on-white. Bill Burr was funny and at least a little provocative in suggesting that the only way that society really changes is when psychopaths get in charge. That was meant to over the top, but his notion that protests now seem to be illegal was dead on.

The best moment in panel discussion was when Booker said that we can’t reduce everything to a binary situation: police officers against the civilians. But Kweli, in his understand way, shot back against this whole kind of “blue lives matter” narrative. He pointed out that protest movements are about solidarity, “You don’t go to a rally to beat cancer and say, ‘All diseases matter!'” That’s a great observation and it gets to the underlying problem with Booker’s point, which is that it is really all about shutting down conversation. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough of this kind of (even polite) conflict in the discussion. But I expect that to improve over time.

The C block involved something called, “Keeping it 100.” In it, Wilmore asked a question of each of the guests where they were supposed to be absolutely honest. If they were, they got a “I Kept It 100” sticker and if not they got a tea bag — “weak tea.” The segment itself was weak tea. The only interesting question was for Talib Kweli about whether hip hop helps or hurts images of African Americans. Clearly, Kweli could write a book on the subject and he tried to provide a nuanced answer but was not given the time. Ultimately, he just said what everyone should know: hip hop is a symptom of society, not a cause. I’m not at all sure this segment is going to stand the test of time.

However, in the short D block, “Keeping it 100” was applied directly Wilmore. They plan to take questions from social media and have Wilmore hear them for the first time live. The question last night was, “What’s the last racist thought you had?” I think this could work pretty well as long as the staff really test Wilmore.

Overall, for a first episode, I thought The Nightly Show was excellent. I think it has a lot of potential. The question is whether Comedy Central will give it enough time to mature. The Daily Show took years to reach its stride. I think the format of The Nightly Show will make it easier to do that. But we’ll see. I’ll definitely be watching.

Kiriakou on Bush, Cheney, and Torture

John KiriakouThey knew about it all the way up to the top. I remember sitting at a meeting with one of the top three officials at the CIA when the program was approved. And throughout the conversation, he kept on saying, “I can’t believe the president signed off on that program. I can’t believe it.” He kept saying it. Because it was so radical and violent that even internally we didn’t think there would be permission forthcoming. And there was. And it got out of hand, and it was a slippery slope and the ball kept rolling down the hill. And the next thing you know, we’re killing people…

When their obituaries are written, their obituaries are going to be about torture and their role in it. And they’re desperately trying to spin the story to make it seem like they were patriots and not criminals. It’s utterly nonpartisan. The Senate Committee on Intelligence used primary source information. They used the original CIA cables to come up with this report. Those cables are not partisan, those cables don’t tell one side of the story. The cables are the actual information written as it was happening. So to call it partisan is just simply untrue. It’s not partisan. What’s partisan is that a certain group of political leaders doesn’t want the organization, the agency, to take responsibility for their actions.

—John Kiriakou
Prison Dispatches From the War on Terror

Southern Pride Rotting Our Republic

Robert E Lee Day?Martin Luther King Jr was born and raised in Georgia. Yet I’ve never seen anyone wearing a t-shirt with his image as an act of “southern pride.” No. “Southern pride” is always expressed with the Confederate flag, Stonewall Jackson, or Robert E Lee.

I came upon this photo over at Hullabaloo, Now Why Would They Do This? I was stunned when I saw it. It isn’t like I’m not aware that many in the south continue to fetishize Lee and pretend that somehow the Confederacy was the true American cause — the “war of northern aggression” and all that ahistorical garbage. But it boggles my mind that a state would combine a celebration of the civil rights struggle with the celebration of the man who led the war to keep racially defined slavery.

Jamelle Bouie explained the whole thing yesterday at Slate, Happy Robert E Lee Day! In the image above, the state is Arkansas. But Alabama and Mississippi (Of course!) do the same thing. In addition, three other states — Georgia, Florida, and Virginia — also celebrate Lee, but they don’t combine him with Martin Luther King. So there’s that.

In Bouie’s telling of it, this is not really a political statement. It just is the case that Lee and King have birthdays that are close together. “As a concept, it was a poor pairing. As a bureaucratic solution, it worked.” But I think Bouie is being too fair or at least non-judgmental. This is racist pandering. It is a signal to the bigots that the state is just doing the whole Martin Luther King thing for the sake of political correctness and that we all know Lee is what the south really stands for. (In that regard, they might have a point.)

There is something more to this, however. Robert E Lee was a traitor. I discussed this in, No More Confederate General Bases! Lee was specifically given the chance to lead the union army. He declined. He chose instead to not only take up arms against his own country in a war started by the southern states, he chose to lead that army. I don’t really care that he was an honorable man. Erwin Rommel was an honorable man, but we don’t have state holidays for him! And when Rommel turned traitor against his nation, it was in the name of something good. When Lee did, it was in the name of one of the worst things this country ever did.

It’s weird, I think. Conservatives are all about how liberalism coddles minority groups — especially African Americans. That’s not true, of course — we are simply trying to create a fair nation — but that’s what conservatives think. Meanwhile, their political power is based upon coddling southern bigots. But when it comes to the southern bigots, the whole nation gets into the game. That’s why no one rises up in disgust at the south’s continued use of an American traitor as a hero and the continued use of the Confederate flag as though it were a symbol of anything other than treason.

The south will never grow up unless we force it to put away its childish illusions that the Civil War was anything but a treasonous act in defense of one of the vilest of human behaviors. There are a lot of ways that people could show their “southern pride,” if they think it necessary. As I noted a few days ago, they could lionize William Faulkner. But somehow, showing “southern pride” is always about hearkening back to the good ol’ days when blacks knew their place. I’m not keen on the whole idea of regional pride to begin with. But “southern pride” has a special smell of rot. It is a disease that is hobbling our republic.

Shepard Smith and the Region of Bigotry

Shepard SmithIs Shepard Smith trying to get fired?! Actually, I doubt it. He’s just a bit of a loose cannon. And let’s just be clear here: he’s gay and he’s liberal — maybe not liberal like I am, but liberal like Hillary Clinton is. He is like this festering boil of humanity and reasonableness on the body of Fox News. And when he oozes some actual truth onto the screen, it is a thing of beauty. But if he ever pops, it will be transcendent.

On Friday’s Shepard Smith Reporting, he did a segment on the Supreme Court taking on same-sex marriage this term. In discussing it, he said, “Not in every case, but in most cases, the same states which were fighting integration, are fight this as well: those states that always seem to be behind the curve for reasons that are explainable and understandable.” Whatcha mean by “explainable and understandable,” Shep? I know that gives the network some wiggle room, but we all know what you mean: the reason these states fought integration before and are fighting same-sex marriage now is because they are controlled by bigots.

And it gets even better. John Bussey notes that there is still disagreement on same-sex marriage and Smith interrupts him and says, “There’s still disagreement on segregation!” You should watch it. Smith seems to know that he has to be very careful. It reminds me of an old article at Gin and Tacos, Fatigue Factor, “I recall distinctly from the years of being a Republican… It was exhausting, frankly, to keep one’s motives hidden.” What he was talking about was the way that Republicans claim they need to enact voter-ID laws before the voter fraud, when it is just a way to stop Democrats from voting. Smith’s in a more difficult position where he can’t even be honest with what policy he’s in favor of. But you can just tell that he’s pleased as punch:

But is Shepard Smith really in danger of losing his job? Probably not. A commenter over at Media Matters, JimWolf359, noted, “I don’t think it’ll happen. He makes good window dressing for Fox. ‘See? We are fair and balanced when we want to be! Just ask our token liberal, Shep if you don’t believe us.'” I hope he’s right. I probably wouldn’t think much of Smith if he were at CNN or MSNBC. But at Fox News, his awkwardness and liberality is charming.

There is one question. Rumor has it that in his recent contract negotiations, he tried to get the okay from the network to him to “come out.” They weren’t willing to do that. Apparently, their target audience (85 year old white men) is still anxious that television screens can transmit The Gay. But if same-sex marriage becomes the law of the land, will Fox News allow Smith to get married? Time will tell.

Stronger Swiss Franc Help EU Economy

Swiss FrancFor the last week, I’ve felt as though I ought to write about what has happened in Switzerland, but I haven’t been able to find a hook. It’s still kind of hard to get too excited about Europe generally, and Switzerland in particular, with its economy that is roughly 4% of our own. Just the same, Switzerland’s per capita GDP is roughly $80,000 and the US’s is only $50,000. So I’m not smug about this; it is just that Switzerland is a small country. What’s more, what is wrong with European economic policy seems pretty simple: shared currency, austerity, and German arrogance. It is this last item that provides the hook.

The German government has really been impossible throughout this economic crisis. It has used the rhetoric of moral rectitude to bludgeon the rest of the European Union, “If only you acted like us, you would be doing well!” That’s just not true. As Paul Krugman is fond of saying, “Economics is not a morality play.” Germany wants to continue to keep its exports cheap, thus helping to keep the rest of Europe depressed. It’s typical conservative “shared sacrifice”: you sacrifice everything and I’ll share nothing.

Last week, Switzerland did something that is kind of the opposite. It stopped pegging the Swiss franc to the euro. Up to that point, the franc had been artificially lowered because the Swiss economy is actually doing quite well. This act caused the franc to shoot up in value — as much as 30% at one point. This is good news for the rest of the EU. It means that Swiss exports will be more expensive and Swiss imports will be cheaper. It should also mean that the Swiss economy should take a little hit and unemployment should go up (but unemployment is very low now).

This highlights one of the most exasperating issues I have when talking to people about economics. Pretty much everyone thinks that a strong dollar is a good thing. It sounds good, right? And it is good — for the 1%. If you have a lot of money, then the more that money is worth, the better. But most people don’t have a lot of money, and most people need a job. For these people, a weak dollar is better because it makes our exports more competitive and imports less competitive.

An interesting aspect of this is that most people are upset (or were in 2012 when the media was covering it) that China was artificially holding down the value of its currency. This, everyone understood, made it harder for US businesses to sell to China and made Chinese businesses unfairly competitive selling to us. But the very same people who were upset about this, also wanted a strong dollar. What China is doing is strengthening our dollar! It is inconsistent to say, “I want a strong dollar and I want American exports to be competitive!” If you are for the strong dollar, you are for shipping jobs overseas for the benefit of people who already have too much money.

So what Switzerland did last week is what we’ve wanted China to do for years and years. It’s strange that Paul Krugman thinks it is a bad thing. I think that Dean Baker, as usual, has this one right. In fact, he even related it to Germany:

This is not a big deal with a relatively small country like Switzerland, but imagine that Germany left the euro (hold the applause) and adopted the same policy of deliberately under-valuing the new mark against the euro. Germany would then run large trade surpluses and the other euro zone countries would run large deficits, draining away demand. Should we applaud this policy as a form of quantitative easing that needs to be supported?

This is what needs to happen. The shared currency — especially the fact that Germany is part of it — is what is stopping the currency in Greece and other depressed nations from weakening so that their economies can grow. The Swiss National Bank didn’t do this for altruistic reasons. Krugman is probably right that its reasons are bad. But it will have a good effect on the EU.

Happy Martin Luther King Jr Day!

Martin Luther King JrHappy Martin Luther King Jr Day, everyone! As you ought to know, today is not his birthday. He was actually born on 15 January 1929. Given that his father lived to be just shy of 85 years old, there is a very good chance that King would be with us today if he had not be assassinated. It’s sad on a personal level, of course. But on a public level, it was a catastrophe; it would have been nice to have had him fighting for us for these last 47 years.

Rather than write something new and brilliant, I’m just going to quote from some of the articles I’ve written about him in the past. This is very long, so I’ve put it all below the fold. Continue reading

Mississippi Wants Bible not Faulkner

William FaulknerAfter Louisiana tried to make the Bible the official state book, it isn’t surprising that now Mississippi is trying to do the same. I wrote about this at the time, King James Bible as Cultural Signifier. In it, I argued that the choice of the Bible for the official state book was not, ultimately, a religious act. It was rather a symbolic gesture — about what all right thinking people believe and not at all about the divinity of Christ and so on. The Mississippi bill is only different in that a couple of Democrats are doing it.

Obviously, I’m not for any such act. It is exclusionary — intended to make non-Christians feel like outsiders. And the constitutional questions it raises seem pretty clear. But I’m just not that interested in the story on that level. It is really just another story about how politicians pander to their base. And who really cares about that? It’s like, “Old man yells at cloud.” As with Louisiana, this bill will likely go nowhere. And if it does, the state will be punished with a bunch of legal fees as it is challenged and defeated in court.

Old Man Yells at CloudWhat’s more interesting is the purpose of state symbols. The Mississippi state tree is the magnolia, not the sequoia, which is the California state tree. State symbols are supposed to be specific to the state. Admittedly, California does a much better job of this than Mississippi. But Mississippi still manages to pick symbols that, while usually not especially specific to the state, are specific enough. Their state insect is the honeybee and not the Lord Howe Island stick insect. So what’s up with the book?

It seems to me that the Mississippi state book should speak of the state as much as the state insect. And Mississippi just happens to have been the birth place of one of the greatest English language writers ever: William Faulkner. How about The Sound and the Fury? Okay, I know: Faulkner didn’t exactly paint the most wonderful picture of Mississippi. But that was just the way Faulkner viewed the world. Anyway, Mississippi is the only state that keeps the Confederate battle flag inside its current state flag. So if the leaders of the state care about their reputation, they might start with the flag. Regardless, the state should celebrate having created arguably the greatest American writer. (That’s not my opinion, but a good case can be made for it.)

But instead, we get a book that could not be less American. We get a book from the iron age about people who lived a long way away from Mississippi. It is true that the Bible is literature. I find some of it (in translation) quite beautiful. But generally, people do not read the Bible the way they read a novel. The people of Mississippi are not considering making the Iliad the state book. They can clearly see that such a move would make no sense given it doesn’t speak to what Mississippi is. The only way that the Bible makes sense as the state book is because a lot of Christians live in the state. But that’s true of every state in the union.

As an atheist, I have no problem with the Bible. But as a reader, I do. The co-sponsor of the bill, Tom Miles, said that he isn’t trying to “force religion — or even reading — on anyone.” Then what is the point of having a state book? In this case, it would just be a symbol of who some of us are and who some of us aren’t. And there are more than enough symbols of that throughout the United States — especially in Mississippi.

We Fear Ebola — It Is From a Scary Country

Scary AfricanAaron Carroll brought my attention to some alarming but unsurprising information, “As of this week, 45 children have died of influenza-related illness so far this season.” Further, during the last week of 2014, influenza and pneumonia accounted for 8% of all deaths. That’s above the “epidemic threshold” for that time of the year. So the flu is especially nasty right now. Carroll thinks we should all get flu shots and he is attacking the current claim that they are “only” 23% effective, “I’d like a list of all medicines people take, diets they go on, behaviors they change, devices they employ, and procedures they undergo which are better than 23% effective.” So get your flu shot — I can’t afford to lose any readers!

But that’s not what I want to talk about here. I want to talk about why it is that people don’t care about a disease that has killed 45 children so far this season, but they freaked out because one guy died of Ebola. There are a number of issues, of course. For example, the media care about unusual stories. “One man dies of Ebola” is interesting, “lots of kids die of the flu” is not. But the media largely reflect their audiences. And so I think the fundamental issue has to do with purity.

Influenza is our disease. Ebola is their disease. Of course, this isn’t true. Both these diseases move around the global. But the perception is that Ebola is foreign. So the fear is not about death, but rather the manner of death. Death by influenza is just one of those unfortunate things that kills our kids and parents. But Ebola is like a terrorist attack. It doesn’t belong in America. It is like a knife jabbing at us from the country of Africa. (Yes, that was a joke!)

You are probably familiar with those tests where you have to associate positive and negative words with different groups to test your subconscious bias. Not long ago, I took one related to young and old people and found that I am biased quite a bit in favor of old people — unlike our society generally. But many years ago, I took this kind of test regarding the countries Japan, China, and India. I was surprised that subconsciously, I had the lowest opinion of India. It seemed strange, given how many great friends and colleagues I’ve had from India. But once I thought about it, I realized that my default image of India was of this rather dirty place. This is unfair, but that’s what’s so terrible about our brains: we aren’t in nearly as much control as we think.

It seems to me that people have this same kind of subconscious bias against Africa. I’m sure if I took the same test comparing Africa with Asia, I would end up with a strong bias toward Asia and against Africa. So it just makes sense that a virus coming from Africa would cause a far more irrational fear than a virus that came from Asia. It is more or less the same thing as the constant conservative push to make laws banning Sharia law. I don’t think most people even know what Sharia law is. But it, like Ebola, is an impurity from, as Ricky Gervais says in Ghost Town, “a scary country.”

Why Republican Nomination Circus Is Coming Back

Ben CarsonI guess Ben Carson is serious about running for president. I suspect that it is like more people who run for the Republican presidential nomination: he’s really just trying sell some books and maybe get a Fox News program. But he wants to be taken seriously. That’s why on Thursday, National Journal reported, Ben Carson to the GOP Establishment: I’m Not “Crazy.” It seems that the only reason that people think he’s crazy is because of the mainstream media. You see, they are always looking for gotcha moments. Like when Huffington Post reported, Ben Carson Likens Islamic State to American Patriots’ Willingness to Die for Cause. And why? Just because he, you know, likened ISIS to the founding fathers.

It brings up an interesting question. Why is it that the Republican presidential nomination is such a freak show when the Democratic one is not? I’m not talking about Rick Santorum. He is part of a long and glorious tradition of “issue” candidates. The Democrats have those too. In fact, Howard Dean had intended to be an issue candidate, but his campaign took off. There’s nothing wrong with that. I’m talking about candidates like Herman Cain, Carly Fiorina, and now Ben Carson. You just don’t see major Democratic candidates for president who are comparable. In order to be taken at all seriously as a Democrat, you must have actually, you know, been in government before.

Part of this is just based upon the fact that Republicans have no shame and they will do anything for a buck. The best example of this is Newt Gingrich. He clearly ran for president in 2012 simply to sell whatever it is that he sells. When he managed to win two state primaries, it doubtless came as an unpleasant shock to him. Unlike issue candidates like Santorum, Bachmann, and Paul, I don’t think he was interested in being president. But I don’t think this desire on the part of Republicans — small and mighty — to cash in is the main thing that drives the freak show. I think it is more philosophical than that.

Republicans believe that governance requires no skill. And by and large, when they are in charge, they demonstrate that technically, you really can be the president and not know what you are doing. As I’ve discussed before, political amateur Arnold Schwarzenegger showed that being smart and committed was not enough to properly run the state of California. We needed a professional, and we got one when we elected Jerry Brown.

So who cares that Alan Keyes (2008) or Herman Cain (2012) or Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina (2016) have no actual political experience! The Republican Party don’t need no stinking experience. It probably isn’t a coincidence that all of these candidates are members of under-represented groups in the Republican Party. Since the party doesn’t especially appeal to minorities and women, it doesn’t have “farm teams.” Look at the list of African Americans in the House of Representatives. There are currently two Republicans — and they just got in. If the party isn’t going to vote for you anyway, you might as well run for president.

Even among supposedly real candidates, there isn’t much seriousness on the part of the Republicans. Sarah Palin couldn’t even wait for a full term in office. That still amazes me. I know that she is a fairly stupid, incredibly ignorant, and shallow person. But if you had just been through a very damaging presidential election, wouldn’t you go back to work as governor and try to prove all your detractors wrong? But even Mitt Romney — who actually got the nomination — left the governorship as soon as he could. These are people who are not interested in governing. It reminds me of the end of Primary Colors, when Stanton says:

You know as well as I do, that plenty of people playing this game, they don’t think that way. They’re willing to sell their souls, crawl through sewers, lie to people, divide them, play on their worst fears for nothing! Just for the prize.

Those people who do it just for the prize? They are the Republicans. They don’t value what the president does, but they want to honor of having the job. Get ready for the circus. It’s coming soon to a television near you.

Fox News, “No-Go Zones,” and Apologies

Fox Not NewsAs we all know, Fox News will bring on any kook as long as the kook is willing to say what the conservative network wants to push for the day. So last weekend, they brought on Nolan Peterson. He doesn’t seem especially like a kook, but the nonsense he was spouting was definitely pretty kooky. In the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Fox News was pushing this idea that France had 741 “no-go zones” where Islamists had de facto control. According to Peterson, these areas are “pretty scary,” which says something because he’s “been to Afghanistan, Iraq.” And at times, he claimed, it felt like those places. He also said that he saw young men wearing Osama bin Laden t-shirts. And then Elisabeth Hasselbeck brought up the ridiculous poll that says that one in six French people support ISIS. Peterson said that this too was “scary.” Peterson is apparently a very frightened guy.

For the record, these supposed “no-go zones” are zones urbaines sensibles. This translates to “sensitive urban zones.” They are what we would call “urban renewal zones” or “opportunity zones.” They are, in other words, poorer areas that the government is trying to improve economically. And many of them are clearly seeing much gentrification. But in the conservative mind, poor person and terrorist are pretty much the same anyway.

The whole thing blew up in the face of Fox News. This is especially true after the French television program Le Petit Journal made fun of the whole thing. (For the video, see News Corpse.) Fox News displayed a map of the “no-go zones” in France. So, in a brilliant bit of satire, Le Petit Journal sent to people into these areas dressed like stormtroopers with motorcycle helmets. The areas — Surprise! — are very nice — even trendy. And the French people interviewed seemed to think that the comparison of their neighborhoods for Afghanistan and Iraq as pretty funny. Vive la France!

This morning, Fox News issued a apology of sorts. For the record, I think the whole “apology” and “retraction” and “update” business is a joke. A newspaper prints an above the fold story, “Obama Is Secret Terrorist.” And then, the next day, at the very bottom of page 16, they print, “Yesterday, we incorrectly claimed that Obama is a secret terrorist. We apologize for this error.” But in the case of Fox News, it is rarely even that good. In the following correction, there is no context and the apology is razor thin. The viewer is left with the idea that the only thing wrong with the story is that some of the areas labeled were wrong:

We want to tell you that last Saturday we showed a map of neighborhoods in France labeled as no-go zones. Some of the neighborhoods were highlighted incorrectly. We apologize for the error.

Earlier this week, Nolan Peterson wrote an article on Blue Force Tracker, To the People of France. It is not so much an apology as an apologia. But in its way, it is even worse than what Fox News did. In it, he explained that he wasn’t talking about these areas as they normally were, but rather as they were “during the 2005 riots.” But he never said anything about riots during the Fox News segment. In fact, he didn’t even provide any caveats like, “When I was there, I saw…” He was very clear: these 741 “no-go zones” were areas where Islamic extremists are able to recruit with impunity. There was no lack of clarity; he knew what Fox News want to hear and he said it.

Afterword

I don’t know the details of what he thinks should be done, but Nolan Peterson has a liberal attitude about how Muslims have been marginalized in French society. He seemed very eager to talk about this, but Elisabeth Hasselbeck was not interested.

Update (19 January 2015)

Wow. Fox News put out an actual correction:

Economics, Elections, and Oligarchy

Brian BeutlerOver at New Republic yesterday, Brian Beutler made an important but obvious point, If the Midterms Were Held Today, Gas Prices Might Have Saved the Democrats’ Skin. He even provided a nifty graph that shows that as gas prices have gone down, Obama’s approval rating has gone up. Now we all know that correlation is not causation. What’s more, in off-year elections, economic conditions are not well correlated with how people vote. (I suspect that it is correlated with how people would vote if they did vote.) But there is no denying that if the election were held today, the Democrats would do a lot better because of the way the economy has improved over the last two and a half months.

This is sad. As Beutler noted, “That’s a sobering reflection of the capricious nature of politics…” But surely it doesn’t come as a surprise to him. This is the way that our politics always works. This is the reason that the Republican Party has been able to to move to the far right without paying much of a political price for it. It has, after all, abandoned basic competence for a commitment to ideology. And as I hammer away all the time here, we know that it will be able to win the White House in 2016 as long as the economic conditions turn bad. In the simplest of terms: if gas prices go way up in a year and a half, Scott Walker could be our next president.

Of course, it isn’t specifically about gas prices. We’ve been seeing reasonable job growth for about a year now. It is only recently that people have noticed it. I am not saying, however, that Obama and the Democrats should get credit for the improving economy. But given that the electorate blamed the Democrats for the bad economy before, they should credit the Democrats now. And I’m sure they do. Beutler is right: if the election were held today, the Democrats would do much better.

It’s hard not to take this conclusion and throw your hands up, “It’s impossible!” Indeed, it is pretty much random. But the positive side of it is that it frees the Democratic Party in terms of ideology. Many Democrats are afraid that if Elizabeth Warren runs for president, we will lose because she’s too liberal; instead, we must run Hillary Clinton. But in a general election, it will make almost no difference. If the economy is booming in the first three quarters of 2016, we win; if it isn’t, we lose. So we Democrats ought to nominate the person we most like and not the person who we think is most “electable.”

Beyond this, the economic effects on voting patterns is very troubling. It basically means that we live in an oligarchy. The person most important to who becomes the next president is the chair of the Federal Reserve. If she wanted to, Janet Yellen could sabotage the Democrats in 2016 by raising interest rates and tanking the economy. It’s interesting that Paul Volcker did just that to Jimmy Carter — which is what Carter wanted him to do. It was a selfless act on Carter’s part. But what people remember about Carter was that he was a hopeless president, and all the credit due him goes to Ronald Reagan, who actually hurt the economy.

This is American politics. And if you aren’t terrified, you aren’t paying attention.