About Frank Moraes

Frank Moraes is a freelance writer and editor online and in print. He is educated as a scientist with a PhD in Atmospheric Physics. He has worked in climate science, remote sensing, throughout the computer industry, and as a college physics instructor. Find out more at About Frank Moraes.

Charlotte Was Not Tenacious of Life

Charlotte BronteJohn Muir was born this day in 1838. Filmmaker Marcel Camus was born in 1912. Comedic screenwriter Norman Panama was born in 1914. Anthony Quinn in 1915. And American citizen gunned down without due process of law, Anwar al-Aulaqi was born in 1971.

Queen Elizabeth II is 87 today. The great comedian Elaine May is 81. Charles Grodin is 78. Since I mentioned Hitler’s birthday yesterday, I guess I have to mention that James Dobson is 77 day. The great Iggy Pop is 66. Talentless beauty Andie MacDowell is 55. And Robert Smith of The Cure is 54.

But the day belongs to Charlotte Bronte who was born 1816 and died not all that much later. She is, of course, the author of Jane Eyre, a wonderful, if flawed novel. I will always remember the line, “You must be tenacious of life!” (I use it a lot; and it’s opposite!)

Happy birthday Charlotte Bronte!

We Aren’t the Anti-Terrorists

Inventing the EnemyA lot of people in the United States want terrorism to be a major problem—it seems to define us as a people. But apparently, terrorism is an extremely minor problem. How else can we explain the fact that almost every time I read about a foiled terror plot, it turns out that all the tools for the act and very often even the idea came from the FBI? Michael Tarm over at the Associated Press reported yesterday on two such cases, FBI: Ill. Man Tried to Join Al-Qaida-Linked Group. In it, he wrote about Abdella Ahmad Tounisi who tried to board a flight to Syria to join a group that is fighting against the Bashar Assad regime. The article didn’t say, but I wouldn’t doubt that the FBI even provided the plane ticket.

Tounisi was a allegedly a friend of Adel Daoud who, like most “terrorists” in America tried to detonate a fake bomb that the FBI had given him. I question how valid these prosecutions are. Would these people have actually gone through with these acts if the FBI hadn’t made it so easy? We’ll never know. And the bombing at the Boston Marathon shows how ridiculous these investigations are: we spend enormous resources setting up fake terrorist acts to foil while real ones go unnoticed. I understand that plotters like the Tsarnaev brothers as almost impossible to detect beforehand, but certainly resources could be used that now go to people likely couldn’t commit a terrorist act without government help.

There was something else in the article that caught my eye:

There are no links between Tounisi and the Boston Marathon bombings earlier in the week, the head of the FBI office in Chicago, Cory B. Nelson, said in a statement announcing the arrest.

This goes along with a common meme in conservative media right now: the Boston Marathon bombers were part of some large terror network. Now certainly, I don’t know. But that sounds really unlikely and there is certainly no indication of it. But people really want to believe in some vast conspiracy that isn’t there. From what we know, al-Qaida is not that organized a group. Many acts that are supposedly by al-Qaida are really only by people who align themselves with al-Qaida. And that makes them harder to detect. But as “public enemy number one,” al-Qaida is a pathetic group—like a mouse who keeps attacking your feet: annoying and even painful at times but certainly not an existential threat.

I just read the title essay in Umberto Eco’s Inventing the Enemy. He explains what is going on perfectly:

See what happened in the United States when the Evil Empire vanished and the great Soviet enemy faded away. The United States was in danger of losing its identity until bin Laden, in gratitude for the benefits received when he was fighting against the Soviet Union, proffered his merciful hand and gave Bush the opportunity to create new enemies, strengthening feelings of national identity as well as his own power.

That’s about right. What Eco is getting at is the fact that we only have identity to the extent that we are not “the enemy” or more generally “the other.” That’s a much more profound discussion, which I may write about later. For now, it is enough to say that we need to fight against this. The barbarians are not at the gates and there are much more edifying ways to define ourselves than as “not those pathetic religious fundamentalists who think God wants them to kill other people.”

Don’t Nofollow

Stop the nofollow attributeI’ve come to despise the “nofollow” attribute of links. When a link includes rel=”nofollow” in it, search engines are not supposed to follow the link or use it to increase, for example, the linked page’s Google ranking. The idea originally was to reduce spam. If spammers knew that their useless blog comments wouldn’t increase their ranking, the theory was, then they wouldn’t post useless blog comments. Boy did that not work! I have 4 levels of spam protection on this website and still I have to hand delete between 5 and 50 entries per day.

Unfortunately, few people seem to have noticed that the “nofollow” attribute is useless. Go to just about any blog and leave a comment with your website address. On almost all sites, the link will be displayed with a “nofollow” attribute. To me, that’s mighty un-neighborly. I like it when people comment here. The least I can do is admit that my blog is in fact linking to their sites. It makes me think of neighborhood girls when I was 12 who told me to pretend I didn’t know them when alpha boys were around.

Of course, it isn’t that most bloggers feel this way. I suspect that very few of them even know what the “nofollow” attribute is, much less that they are using it. But most blogging software adds this attribute by default. Thankfully, the software I use (Nucleus) does not do it by default. But when I added BB-Code, it added “nofollow” by default.

I have two points in writing this. First: you should know about “nofollow” and remove it from your blog if you have no reason to use it. Sometimes there is a reason to use it. Earlier today, I added a “nofollow” attribute to the link to TeaParty.org, because they annoyed me so much. But if you are automatically adding it to all comments on your site, you might want to give this some thought. This is especially true if you approve all comments.

My second point? You are welcome to comment here; we won’t treat you like a trespasser. (At least, not after we approve your comment!)

Global Warming and Expansionary Austerity

Reinhart and RogoffWhen I was doing research in global warming, it was very annoying. The theory was all laid out. And that was most of what we had. At that time, the evidence for global warming was weak. So an iconoclast like me naturally looked for ways that the theory was wrong: negative feedbacks and stuff like that. Because here’s the thing: the basic theory was right. It is simple energy transfer, and thus about as controversial gravitation theory. If it was wrong, it was because there was some other energy forcing that we just didn’t see.

Over time, the data got better. Now, the data alone indicate that the earth is warming, although you need some theory to explain that humans are causing it. But note what the global warming deniers do: they attack the data and the data alone. They can do that because there is a lot of data. But the process is clear: first they decide global warming is bunk, then they search the data trying to disprove it.

The situation is little different when it comes to economics. Mike Konczal wrote an excellent article over at Wonk Blog today, Reinhart/Rogoff-Gate Isn’t the First Time Austerians Have Used Bad Data. In it, he provided a history of conservative efforts to justify the idea of expansionary austerity. This is the idea that if the government cuts its budget to the bone, the private sector will have “confidence” that will get the economy booming. If this sounds like magical thinking, you’re right.

The story Konczal tells is of economists running from data set to data set looking for something that would reinforce their kooky theory. And in each case, the data they seized on turned out to be wrong. But that isn’t because they had bad luck. It is because only bad data would have made the case for expansionary austerity because expansionary austerity is wrong.

In any scientific pursuit, you have to start with a theory. But it can’t just be any old theory; you need to start with the basics of your field. In global warming you need to start with energy transfer and so on. In expansionary austerity you need to start with demand and all that jazz. But in each case (global warming denial and expansionary austerity advocacy), those involved didn’t start with a theory. They just rejected the default, sensible, traditional theory. Then they went out in search of data to confirm—data that didn’t exist because their “theories” were wrong. And that’s not science, it’s politics.

People involved in these pseudo-scientific political campaigns are not honest brokers. They use one of the best aspects of science against itself: the ability of a new theory to destroy an existing paradigm. So they point to Einstein and note how he, for example, revolutionized Galilean relativity. But they never mention that Einsteinian relativity is Galilean relativity at slow speeds. They never mention that Einstein was solving problems that were well known at the time. They never mention that Einstein had a theory whereas they have only “not what everyone in the field believes.”

Whether in global warming or economics, it is shameful.

Why Dems Aren’t Economically Liberal

Steve KornackiI just came upon this short segment from Up with Steve Kornacki. In it, he admits what I’ve long said: the Democratic Party (at the national level anyway) is just liberal on social issues; when it comes to economic issues, they are as conservative as Republicans were during the Reagan administration.

After this segment, there is a group discussion of the issue, although it is much too much about how great all this social progress is and not enough about why the Democratic Party has abandoned economic liberalism. Jerry Nadler mentions that the Democrats have been much more liberal socially but that they are more conservative economically than they were 30 years ago. Eliot Spitzer notes that a lot of problems stem from taking the wrong lessons from the Clinton administration and the fact that the economic constituents are not well organized. I don’t really agree about this last part. Unions are very organized. It is just that the Democratic Party has decided they can ignore them. Maya Wiley notes the recent research that shows that politicians greatly over-estimate how conservative their constituencies are. And Neera Tanden (who I really like) just acts as the Obama administration apologist.

In the sequence after this, Kornacki makes an excellent point. The reason that the Democrats are in favor of these social policies is that a large part of the donor class is socially liberal. No one on the show will come out and say it, but I will: we get policies that the rich support. The rich don’t support liberal economic policies. So the Democratic Party is only willing to work around the edges. A good example of this is the minimum wage. It doesn’t hurt the banking class. Even Walmart is for it. But other liberal policies—like raising the payroll tax cut, raising corporate taxes, and reforming intellectual property rights—can’t even be discussed.

Anyway, Kornacki is right in this clip even if I disagree with the causes he later discusses:

Afterword

In yet another segment, Neera Tanden notes that the first thing Obama did was raise taxes on the wealthy, even though he got a lot of money from wealthy donors. This is silly. Taxes were going up. Obama raised taxes about as little as he could possibly get away with. She is totally wrong to think that Obama showed any courage regarding the Fiscal Cliff deal.

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Common Sense or Nonsense

Mark BlythMeet Mark Blyth. He is a political scientist who seems to study mostly economics. He has a new book coming out next week, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea, which I’ve already ordered.

In the following video, he explains that the economy is not like a family. If the public and private sectors both try to pay down debt, it will just cause a depression in which no one effectively pays down debt. We’ve seen this in southern Europe where intense austerity has so depressed the economy that debt-to-GDP ratios have actually gone up in some countries. But his main point is that austerity is just another way to make the poor pay for the mistakes of the rich. As he notes: first the poor paid for the bank bailouts and then they paid again by the austerity cuts in programs.

Check out the video. It’s only five minutes, but you might want to watch it a few times:

Wanted: Serious Right Wing

Tea PartyThere are fundamental differences between MSNBC and Fox News, but most of them have to do with degrees. For example, to some extent, MSNBC has become a media arm of the Democratic Party; Fox News is nothing but a media arm of the Republican Party. The biggest and most consequential difference has nothing to do with degrees. MSNBC viewers know that they are getting partisan news and Fox News viewers don’t. They think they are just getting The Truth™, and this is no accident: it is what Fox News tells them before and after every commercial break.

I thought about this earlier when I came upon an ad on (of all places) Crooks & Liars. It asked the question, “Is Obama the Worst President in History?” As always, when I see an ad that really offends me, I clicked over. I want these people to pay for the privilege of offending me. And I came upon this page for TeaParty.org. It is basically just an opportunity to sign up for their newsletter. But I was really struck by their two question form.

It starts with a wholly prejudicial introduction:

From some viewpoints, Obama has failed in a great many of his endeavors, but is he worse than, for example, Jimmy Carter? Tell us what you think!

But then they ask the question: do you believe Obama is the Worst President in History? The choices are: (1) yes, Obamacare put him there; (2) yes, his handling of the economy was devastating; (3) yes, his increases in the welfare state are tragic; and (4) no, he is not worse than Jimmy Carter. The assumption is that the worst president in history is either Jimmy Carter or Barack Obama. I’m not sure how I would answer that question but there is a decent chance I would say that Obama is worse than Carter but not nearly the worst president in history. (For the record, the second question is just whether liberals or conservatives are better solving our nation’s problems.)

What I find interesting about this is not its utter cluelessness. Rather, I’ll bet that the people who wrote this questionnaire think it is totally reasonable. They ran it by all of the people they know and no one suggested any changes. I doubt that they giggled to themselves, “See how we put Obama in a no win situation!” Rather, it is just self-evident that Obama or Carter is the worst president ever. And that is a big problem.

In a normal political environment, we need to understand that both sides of the political spectrum are honest brokers and have good ideas. The problem in modern American, however, is that clueless people like those at TeaParty.org have taken over most of the Republican Party. And now serious conservative thinkers like Ross Douthat, David Frum, and Josh Barro come off as moderates. A right wing that offers two of the last three Democratic presidents as the only answer to the question of who is the worst president in history is not an honest broker and does not have much in the way of good ideas. We need to confront this fact head on.

Afterword

Note also that in 10-15 years, these same people will claim, “When I look back, Obama wasn’t a bad president!” Of course, they will be screaming about some new Democrat who they claim is worse than Stalin.

Safety Last

Harold LloydOn this day in 1840, French symbolist painter Odilon Redon was born. Sculpter Daniel Chester French, who created Abraham Lincoln at the Lincoln Memorial, was born 1850. Adolf Hitler who played some part in European history was born in 1889. Lionel Hampton was born in 1908. And Tito Puente was born in 1923.

Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens is 93 today. George Takei is 76. Ryan O’Neal is 72. Veronica Cartwright and Jessica Lange are 64. Clint Howard is 54. And King Kong stand in Andy Serkis is 49.

But the day belongs to Harold Lloyd who was born in 1893. There are two reasons for this. First, I sure wasn’t going to give the day to Hitler—not so much because he was evil but because I’m just so tired of him. Second, I still get nervous watching Lloyd. He is also very funny.

Happy birthday Harold Lloyd!

Third Time with Downton Abbey

Joanne FroggattI can’t really take anymore of this Boston business. There are things to be happy about, but mostly I’m finding my fellow citizens (including the president) disappointing. So let’s talk about Downton Abbey.

Finally, I’ve watched the whole series. But I didn’t watch it in order; I watched it in this order: first, third, second. There were really only two subplots that needed filling in. The first was the story of Ethel Parks, the housemaid with big dreams who ends up pregnant by a libertine army officer. In the third season she is your typical scarlet letter fallen woman with a heart of gold. But in season two, she starts off quite obnoxious. This is a surprisingly uncommon story arch: the brash youngster who society brutalizes to the point where she becomes a decent human being. I like that story line because it is the story of my life and I dare say that of most people. It is shocking to see people make such a big deal out of Ethel’s having a child out of wedlock. It certainly isn’t like that now; but all that has really changed is what we decide to shun people for; we actually do it more now than ever; ask a felon how it is to find a job.

The second story that needed a little filling in was, of course, Bates’ murder conviction. But I already knew the outlines. In the first season, it was established that Bates had an estranged wife who was at least a little crazy, having caused Bates to go to prison for her crime. The only thing that needed filling in was how she came back into his life. Enter: Iago Number One, O’Brien. It’s all very melodramatic. In fact, as if just to annoy me, writer Julian Fellowes, has O’Brien bring Mrs. Bates back twice.

And that gets us to my biggest realization of watching these middle episodes: it is too much of a soap opera. Too much of the characters’ motivations are based upon the dictates of the plot than any reasonable understanding of how people really act. And it is particularly bad with regard to the subplot about Bates and Anna. You may recall in my discussion of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, that one of things I most liked about the film was that I cared about all of the subplots. In the case of Downton Abbey, I don’t much care about anything other than Bates and Anna. And it seems very much like Fellowes is screwing with them in ways that don’t feel authentic.

On the other hand, the series includes delightful moments. I particularly liked a short sequence where the staff of the Crawley house opened a soup kitchen and pulled in various (and surprising) people from Downton Abbey. And I do care about the characters. Over time, I’ve come to understand O’Brien better, but of course, that’s probably more me than the series. It would be nice if Fellowes got clear on her character. Also I like that Lord Grantham is an entitled prig and yet tries very hard to be a good man. There is a sequence in the second season where he learned that he has badly wronged Bates and does his best to fix the situation.

So over all, I like the show. I look forward to the fourth season. But if he starts screwing with Bates and Anna now that they are finally settled, I will stop watching. And yes, I do have a crush on Joanne Froggatt who plays Anna. Allow an old man the few joys he has left!

Muslims? Let’s Go to War!

IntoleranceMarc Ambinder wrote a very reasonable article over at The Week, The Insanity of Blaming Islam. In it, he argues that we shouldn’t blame Islam if a Muslim commits a crime any more than we should blame Christanity when a Christian commits a crime. This is an excellent point. When Scott Roeder killed George Tiller for explicitly Christian reasons, no one talked about “radical Christianity” being responsible. So I thought there wouldn’t be much push back on the article. Man, was I wrong!

I started reading the comments and one after another they were vile. Growup commented, “The writer is insane. So blinded by his own desperate ideology that he’s unwilling to acknowledge any form of truth.” Vinney commented, “Dumbest article I’ve ever read. I get tired of leftists trying to humanize these bastards.” And Sybilll commented, “Know the difference between a radical Muslim and a moderate Muslim? The radical Muslims want to kill us. The moderate Muslims want the radical Muslims to kill us. You really are stuck on stupid, Marc.” Makes you proud to be an American, doesn’t it?

The “truth” that Growup thinks Ambinder won’t acknowledge is apparently that Islam is an evil religion. The bastards that Vinney talks about are not the people who did the bombing; they are Muslims generally. And Sybilll’s comment is so over-the-top offensive, I don’t think it needs comment. The point is that Marc Ambinder makes the truly modest suggestion that we don’t blame Islam for the vile acts of two young men and the blogosphere shouts back: no way; Muslims did this!

But it would be one thing if it were just the internet. I overheard Bill O’Reilly on The Factor today. He said, “They want to kill Americans.” That’s just great. Let’s make it all about America. We don’t have enough jingoism in this country, so let’s get everyone worked up for war. Right now, people in Boston are on the TV chanting “U-S-A!” Apparently, the Boston Marathon bombing wasn’t a terrible crime that killed and wounded many innocent people; it was an attack on America itself. Where is Patton?! Let’s go to war! I’ll get the guns, you pick the country.

This is madness. And now I’m more concerned than ever that we will get bad new laws to protect us from terrorism and nothing at all to protect us from guns, workplace accidents, and environmental catastrophe.

Profits Before People

Surveillance StateIt looks as though the fire and explosion at the West Fertilizer Company near Waco, Texas was not intentional—no terrorist act as I feared. It seems to be just another tragic industrial accident. And as such, it makes for a good comparison with the Boston Marathon bombing. The bombing killed 3 people and wounded 183. The Fertilizer explosion killed 12 and wounded more than 160. Human suffering and the unnecessary loss of life is always tragic. But I’m mathematically inclined, so I’ll go out on a limb here and say that the Waco explosion is more tragic than the Boston bombing.

But as a country, we won’t treat it that way. It is very likely that the bombing will lead to changes in our privacy and even immigration policies. I don’t think we will see any such “action” as a result of the fertilizer explosion. For example, it just isn’t likely we will increase funding of OSHA, which last inspected the West Fertilizer Company facility in 1985. Because that’s just how we roll. There was no long term limit to deep water driller after the BP oil spill. There are never any laws at all passed after the almost weekly mass shootings. Why would we care if workers or the public at large is safe from exploding manufacturing facilities?

Don’t think that these are very different. The three tragedies I mentioned all have one thing in common: doing something about them would hurt corporate profits. But the ever increasing surveillance state? Why, that’s a corporate opportunity! Look at those x-ray machines at the airport: they don’t make us a lick more safe, but they sure as hell made some people rich (or richer).

And that’s about all you need to know about America: we only care about people in as much as they can be profited from.

Update (18 April 2013 5:27 pm)

According to USA Today, the death toll in Texas is now up to 14 and those wounded is stated as “about 200.”

Reuters Plans Character Assassination After Soros Dies

George SorosI just love the liberal media in the United States. It is so liberal that when a conservative dies, they provide blanket hagiographic coverage. But when a liberal dies, it is “both sides now” coverage, “On the liberal side of the political spectrum he was consider a champion of worker rights, but on the conservative side he was hated for not be pro-corporate enough.” I mentioned this when Margaret Thatcher died: we were bound to be deluged with stories about what a great woman she was, even though, you know, she wasn’t. I wonder what the US press would have said if Hitler had managed to maneuver his way past the second World War, “Many criticized his genocide, but even they had to admit that he made the trains run on time”?

As you probably noticed, George Soros did not die on Monday. But Reuters accidentally published their “file obit” that day. Newspapers write obituaries for famous people before they die. This is why they are able to put out 3,000 word obituaries within an hour of someone’s death. For whatever reason, they screwed up and published Soros’ obituary while he was (and is) still alive. For those of you who don’t know, Soros is a billionaire investor who is somewhat liberal. As a result, he is not only reviled by conservatives, he is a notable figure in their conspiracy theories. But Reuters is a mainstream media organization, or as conservatives call it, a part of the liberal media. (Note: in conservative speak, “liberal” means “not as conservative as I am.”)

So what did those liberals have to say about the parting of Soros? Thankfully, Matt Yglesias got a screen capture before they removed it. It started:

George Soros, who died XXX at age XXX, was a predatory and hugely successful financier and investor, who argued paradoxically for years against the same sort of free-wheeling capitalism that made him billions.

Compare this to what Reuters published when Milton Friedman actually died:

Milton Friedman became a towering figure in modern-day economics, a Nobel Prize winner whose view that controlling the money supply was the key to economic health became a central plank of economic theory.

Friedman, who died on Thursday of heart failure at a hospital in the San Francisco area at age 94, was regarded as one of the most influential conservative thinkers that America and the famed Chicago school of economics ever produced.

I don’t have an especially strong hatred of Friedman, but the words “pernicious” and “General Augusto Pinochet” would certainly be in the first paragraph or two if I wrote it. It is certainly true that Friedman’s aggressive prosthelytizing for “free” markets harmed far more people than Soros’ trading ever did.

Regardless, there is absolutely nothing paradoxical about Soros’ work and his political ideas. In the mainstream press, if you are a liberal, you must be a communist. You must not believe in a market economy. You just believe that the state should own everything and give an equal share to everyone in the country. The fact that this idea shines through from our major media outlets says a great deal about our political problems: this is the conservative caricature of liberals—not exactly “objective” or “moderate.”

After all this, Reuters regretted only that they had published the obituary. No mention was made of the fact that they plan to assassinate his character after he dies. But that’s what newspapers do—if you’re a liberal.