Trump’s Huge Tax Cut for the Rich — of Course

Donald TrumpWell, Donald Trump has a new tax plan out that he claims “is going to cost me a fortune.” And apparently, a lot of news outlets are buying that, because hey, it’s easier to just listen to him than it is look at the tax plan. But even looking at the bullet points shows what a sham it is. He’s lowering everyone’s tax rate. Well, that won’t work. And then he says individuals making less than $25,000 per year will pay no taxes — but most of them already don’t. But the crowning achievement in the plan is that it eliminates the estate tax.

Think about that for a moment. No one even argues that the estate estate tax limits investment. So why is it even part of this plan? And under current law, there is no estate tax when money is transferred between spouses. And there is no estate tax on amounts given to individuals up to $5 million. So this change is not meant to help the rich; it is meant to help the super rich; it is meant to help people like him. His line that it “is going to cost me a fortune” is so much nonsense, and it is outrageous that we have such an incompetent press that it reports this stuff seriously.

Jeb BushLuckily, there are people who actually look at the policy. CNN did a pretty good job of summing up what some of those people had to say, Donald Trump Unveils Plan to Slash Taxes for the Poor — and the Wealthy. For example, according to the Tax Policy Center, this year, 45% of Americans will own no Federal income taxes. All Trump’s plan does is push that number up to about 50%. Alan Cole of the Tax Foundation said, “Some of what Mr Trump has done in his press conference is just sell us on one of the better features of what our income tax already does.”

But the biggest news is that the top tax rate would go down from just shy of 40% to 25%. As Donald Trump might say: that’s huge. What’s more, he wants to get rid of the alternative minimum tax. And he wants to cut the capital gains tax rate. That’s always presented as a way to spur investment, but it’s done to decrease the taxes on the very richest people. There are better ways to encourage actual investment, but people like Trump aren’t interested in that.

Dylan Matthews put together, Donald Trump’s Massive Tax Cut for the Top 1 Percent, in One Chart. You may remember recently I wrote, The Narrative of Jeb Bush’s Tax Cut Plan. It was one of a couple of articles I wrote about how Bush’s tax plan is a huge tax cut for the rich. Well, as you will see, Trump’s “populist” tax cut, is far worse:

Trump and Bush Tax Cuts

Yes, Trump’s tax cut does provide more to benefit to those at the lowest levels of the economy — but not much more. And it totally explodes at the top — exactly where tax cuts are unnecessary. The people are the top have been doing great since 2008. It’s not the upper class — much the less the top 1% — that needs help. Here’s how the numbers break down. Those in the lower class (lowest quintile), would get less than 2% of their yearly income in tax breaks. The middle class would get 5%. And the top 1% would get a bit more than 10%. Progressive tax cuts!

One of the better moments at the last debate was when Trump told Carson that we have always had progressive income taxes and that it isn’t socialism. But when it comes down to it, Trump’s tax plan is regressive — making the tax system less progressive. Almost 70% of the tax cuts go to the upper class (top quintile). Republicans just can’t help it. They can’t seem to think any other way about these kinds of things. But that doesn’t mean we have to believe their rhetoric.

Dean Baker on “This Hedge Fund Guy”

Dean BakerThis is an old drug. It’s a generic drug — there’s no patent on it. Ordinarily, we’re looking at high priced drugs because you have a drug company like Gilead Sciences owning a patent on Sovaldi — the hepatitis C drug. They did develop that — or played a role in it (that’s an issue) — but they played a role in developing it — they brought it to market. They’re ostensibly recovering research costs. There’s at least some truth to that. In this case, what they discovered — this hedge fund guy discovered — was that you have an old generic drug that is not widely used, but it is very important for the people who need it. It’s a life and death proposition — no easy substitute. [The company that makes Daraprim] is the sole producer. They have a de facto monopoly.

Now, someone else could get into the market. But it wouldn’t be worth it to them to take the time to get FDA approval because it’s a very small market. So he found this little niche, and he’s able to jump in there and charge outlandish prices because there is no one else there. That’s actually happened with several other generic drugs over the last three, four, five years. And this is just a failure of antitrust regulation. That’s really what that’s about.

The more typical story has to do with how we finance research more generally. And I meantion in the case of Sovaldi — the hepatitis C drug — from Gilead Sciences. There’s charging $84,000 a year for a treatment. The generic price for that would be less than a thousand. Now that speaks to how we finance research and I think that’s very, very problematic. But it’s at least a very different question than what this hedge fund guy did. Which is really just basically price gouging — pure and simple.

—Dean Baker
Interviewed on CounterSpin

Stop Talking About Equality of Opportunity

Dylan MatthewsOver at Vox last week, Dylan Matthews wrote a great article, The Case Against Equality of Opportunity. It’s somewhat long, but I recommend reading it. He showed that “equality of opportunity” is just not possible. This should be understood by everyone at this point. We simply don’t have the kind of society that would say to rich people, “You can’t spend your money on your kids!” And that is what it would take. In fact, we don’t even have the kind of society that provides equal funding for all children in public school. Even that kind of “equality of opportunity” is a bridge too far.

But the meat of Matthews’ article is that we shouldn’t want equality of opportunity. His quote of Thomas Nagel sums up the point, “When racial and sexual injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” Take it to extremes: do we provide the same “opportunity” to get ahead to a child born without arms and legs as we do to other children? It’s a ridiculous notion when put in such stark terms, but that’s what we are saying. It just isn’t as obvious because someone who is intellectually slow would probably struggle through life. But that’s hardly fair.

The problem is both genetic and environmental. People who have a natural gift for trading stocks are more likely to have children with a similar gift. And, as Matthews pointed out, “We know, for example, that lead paint is more prevalent in poor neighborhoods. We also know that lead poisoning hurts children’s IQs, their ability to pay attention, and their school achievement, and that its effects on cognition last through adulthood.” Offering such children “equality of opportunity” is obviously just a sick joke.

“The desire isn’t egalitarian, but humanitarian.” —Dylan Matthews

But a sick joke is exactly what many conservatives would like to offer. A couple of years ago, reformish Republican Avik Roy wrote an article where he laid out what Republicans mean by “equality of opportunity.” And it was truly vile. According to him, equality of opportunity means only the lack of explicit laws. So as long as there were no laws stopping African Americans from having certain jobs, there was equality of opportunity. Note what’s happened here. First, Republicans said they believed in equality. Then it was equality of opportunity. Then even that “reformer” Avik Roy defines out of existence.

When we liberals talk about equality, we aren’t requesting that everyone have the same thing — all that Harrison Bergeron nonsense. The funny thing is that not even the communist countries pretended to have that. All we are really talking about is the safety net. The truth is that we are far too wealthy a country not to provide a basic level of care to our citizens. I would go far beyond that. Since I’m no fan of the idea of “free will,” I believe in great limits to how far one can rise economically. But we are at a point where we still have to argue about whether poor children should be given school lunches.

Matthews’ main point is directed at liberals. He pointed out that we want people’s lives to be better, “The desire isn’t egalitarian, but humanitarian.” And that means we care about outcomes. To me, the politics of this are pretty simple. And it goes back to what I’ve long been saying about how the New Democrats destroyed America. The Republicans and the Democrats talk about “equality of opportunity.” But it is meaningless. It is just a way of avoiding doing those things that would improve the lives of the ever increasing share of Americans who are struggling. The fact that the numbers are increasing should be all that we care about.

Fixing Our Broken Pharmaceutical System

Alex TabarrokAlex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution wrote something interesting, Generic Drug Regulation and Pharmaceutical Price-Jacking. It’s about the recent price rise of Daraprim from $13.60 to $750. He noted that the drug is not under patent, so this, at least, is not an issue of our broken intellectual property system. It is just that the the company that makes it is the only company that makes it, and Martin Shkreli is using that fact to price gouge. It is an example of our broken pharmaceutical system generally.

Tabarrok is a libertarian, and he has a bit of an ax to grind — although not like his partner, Tyler Cowen. Regardless, he did note two things that are important. One is that FDA approval for getting a license to produce a generic drug is costly. The other is that we aren’t able to just import drugs from other countries. In an incredible comparison, this drug is available in India for 5¢ per pill. This is the drug that Shkreli has gone around telling people the company was losing money charging $13.60 — and which he now sells for $750.

The main point is that we should allow reciprocity in drug purchases, “All that we would be doing is allowing import of any generic approved as such in Europe to be sold in the United States.” I agree with that. In fact, I would go further, Tabarrok is a bit of a protectionist when it comes to this issue — claiming that allowing patented medicines to be imported might have a “effect on innovation.” I’m getting kind of tired of the “innovation” line when it comes to the pharmaceutical companies. They mostly seem to be providing us with more and more diverse drugs for erectile dysfunction.

I would like to see far more government involvement in the markets for healthcare needs. As it is, the US government already spends a huge amount of money on drug research, but then allows private companies to get all the rents on them. It’s madness. What’s more, I don’t see why the government doesn’t just go into the business of making generic drugs. Clearly, our market system is not working in the case of Daraprim. But personally, I don’t think we need various sources of generic Vicodin.

One thing is certain: this is not a situation where all we need is for the government to get out of the way. It’s true that Shkreli is abusing the existing system. But any system we have will be abused by the likes of him. And I find it interesting that we arrest people for price gouging during a hurricane — charging ten dollars for can of peaches. But when Shkreli does it on a massively larger and more damaging scale, all we get from people is a shrug: that’s just the way our economy works. Well that’s the problem! We need to stop thinking that the way things have been is the way they must be or or that they are the “natural” way.

Work by the Center for Economic and Policy Research has found that our drug patent system costs us many hundreds of billion of dollars per year. Given this, I think we have to ask if the current system is the best that we can do. As it is, pretty much all economists believe that patents are a really bad for the economy. They cause enormous distortions in the market. The only point to having them is if they provide great benefits. Clearly they do provide some benefits. But I think we could do much better for our money through collective action.

Morning Music: Red Bacteria Vacuum

Roller Coaster - Red Bacteria VacuumToday we have something very interesting, Red Bacteria Vacuum. It is an all woman band that formed in 1998. What I like about them is that their music hearkens back to a lot of earlier music. For example, “Gimme Culture” sounds very much like Richard Hell & The Voidoids. The song I’d really like to share with you is listed as “恋愛ミュージック,” which means “love song” and is almost certainly not the name of the song. It is very much like Ramones. And a more recent song, “San Francisco,” while good reminds me rather too much of early Nirvana.

In early 2006, Red Bacteria Vacuum released what appears to be their most successful effort in the west, Roller Coaster. In fact, “Gimme Culture” is from that album. But let’s just listen to the title track because it is much more in the hardcore tradition. But it has some interesting elements that make it greater than that — like its use of syncopation and some standard pop elements:

Anniversary Post: Battle of Matewan (Kinda)

MatewanI’ll admit this is a bank-shot. John Sayles is 65 today. And in 1987, he made the film Matewan. I wrote about it last year, John Sayles and Matewan. And so I figured that I would write about the actual event today: the Battle of Matewan, which took place on 19 May 1920.

So it’s 1920, and mining is an even more dangerous profession than it is today. And they were paid very little. In this particular case, the workers living in the Stone Mountain Coal Camp in West Virginia were being paid in script that could only be used at the company store. Basically, these miners were slaves. But things were happening in other areas not far away. Union miners had earned large pay increases by going on strike. So when the United Mine Workers of America came to town, thousands of miners signed up. The coal company responded the same way companies do today: they harassed the workers that they didn’t just fire.

The workers then had a great advantage that workers in most times — including very much today — don’t: the mayor and the chief of police of the local town of Matewan sided with the workers rather than the coal corporation. The way it was supposed to go was that the mayor and the police chief would work together to brutalize the workers. But when that didn’t work, the coal company hired thugs from the Baldwin-Felts Detective Agency.

On the morning of 19 May 1920, a group of “detectives” arrived by train with the stated intent of evicting some mining families from the camp, but more generally to brutalize the workers. This is something that continues to bug me to this day: the idea that unions are violent. This is pure corporate propaganda. Certainly workers have been violent — no group is perfect. But the business community has used every tool available to them to keep workers in line, and that included huge amounts of violence both private and with the help of the state. Yet it’s the workers who we constantly hear about being violent.

The “detectives” went to the police chief to serve what turned out to be fraudulent warrants. A shootout ensued. The mayor and two miners ended up dead, as did seven of the “detectives.” It would be nice to think that this all led to the coal companies accepting the union and everyone getting along. It would be more than a decade later that some amount of fairness came to the region. And that was due to New Deal policies. So those of you who think it doesn’t matter who gets election, pay attention! It’s like the advice I gave to young Carey Wedler: it’s not about one election or one candidate. We have to push and win battle after battle. There is no other path to justice.

Oh, and: happy birthday John Sayles!

Chicken Thighs with Tomato-Ginger Sauce

Chicken Thighs with Tomato-Ginger SauceOne of the first things I thought of to use this blog for was my cooking. The second article I ever wrote was, No More Butcher Knives. But I don’t tend to get around to writing about food enough. And when I do, it is about things like donuts and honeydew melons. But today is different.

One of my favorite blogs is Lawyers, Guns, & Money. You can probably tell that from the fact that I am forever quoting Scott Lemieux and Erik Loomis and Scott Eric Kaufman. But the great thing about the blog is that it has a good half dozen interesting people writing for it. One of them is Beth Spencer. She tends to write on feminist issues, but she’s a generalist to some extent — like everyone there. Her day job is being an artist. You can check out her work over at Deviant Art, Vacuum Slayer. It’s amazing stuff. I haven’t spent enough time with it to fully get it. But it combines a lot of different elements: Gothic and surreal, with a sensuality that is both erotic and disturbing.

But one of the things that Spencer writes about on Lawyers, Guns, & Money is food. And last week, she posted a recipe, Chicken Thighs Braised in Tomato-Ginger Sauce. You know me: I love chickens, but I also love eating them. So chicken thighs braised in anything at all was enough to grab my attention. So I left up the recipe in its own tab and today, I finally got around to making it.

It is wonderful. I can’t praise it enough. All the flavors mix together beautifully. What’s more, it’s really easy to make. Basically, you saute some spices, dump in tomatoes and chicken, and cook for a couple of hours. It is well worth checking out. I’m going to present the recipe the way I made it, because it is slightly different — in particular, it is all done in a skillet. But here it is in a nutshell: saute garlic (lots), ginger, curry powder, pepper flakes (dash); dump in large can of crushed tomatoes; bring to a boil; add chicken; reduce heat, cover, stir every now and then.

But here’s the actual recipe:

Ingredients:

  • 1 tbsp olive oil
  • 6 green onions, chopped
  • 1 dash red pepper flakes
  • 1 tsp curry powder
  • 2 inches of fresh ginger, grated
  • 5 cloves garlic, minced
  • 28 oz can crushed tomatoes
  • 1/2 tsp salt
  • pepper to taste
  • 4 chicken thighs
  • chopped fresh cilantro

Directions:

  1. Saute garlic briefly; stir the green onions, pepper flakes, and ginger, until fragrant. Stir in the curry powder, salt, and pepper.
  2. Stir in the tomatoes; bring to boil; reduce heat to low.
  3. Salt and pepper the thighs, then place in the sauce; cover.
  4. Cook for about an hour and a half.
  5. Serve topped with cilantro.

Done this way, it’s actually a rather good recipe for someone who doesn’t have much experience cooking. Yet it’s impressive in the final product. Spencer says to serve it over rice. I served it with angel hair pasta. But I suspect it would work very well with mashed potatoes too. I had some sauce left over, so I’m planning to try it with just pasta — I suspect it will be very good.

Dying for Big Pharma’s Profits

Jeffrey SachsThe Hepatitis-C Virus (HCV) drugs of Gilead Sciences are the poster cases of monopolistic abuse. Gilead owns the patent for the molecule Sofosbuvir, which is sold in two formulations under the brand names Sovaldi and Harvoni. Gilead charges the federal government $84,000 ($1,000 per pill) for a full course of Sovaldi and $94,500 for Harvoni, even though production costs are under $200 per course of treatment. The company is making a killing and, incidentally, adds insult to injury by booking its outlandish US profits in an Irish tax haven.

While the government buys tens of thousands of HCV treatments from Gilead, it is also forced to ration its purchases because of budget constraints. Hundreds of thousands of HCV-infected Americans, both on and off government programs, are unable to obtain the medicines. Many of those being turned away are US veterans who survived their tours in Iraq or Afghanistan only to be killed by Gilead’s not-so-friendly fire.

—Jeffrey Sachs
Rational Drug Pricing

We Crucify Mankind Upon a Cross of Free Trade

Dean BakerIt seems that the editors at The Washington Post are very concerned, The End of Globalization? The last three years the global economy has grown more than international trade. The last time this happened was in 1985. Oh. My. God! What are we going to do? I just looked outside and there are no flames as of yet, but clearly it is just a matter of time because the world is on fire. I’m sure that Thomas Friedman is hiding under his bed. How can we possibly survive without ever increasing international trade?! If people are buying more things locally, it must be a sign of Armageddon.

Dean Baker responded, The Trans-Pacific Partnership, International Trade, and Arithmetic Problems at The Washington Post. Because this is all about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). All our worries will supposedly be over if only we get the TPP — at least until the next trade agreement comes up. But as Baker noted, “The TPP actually will not do much to reduce trade barriers, since the barriers to trade among the countries in the pact are already low in almost all cases.” Like most trade deals these days, it doesn’t have that much to do with trade in a general sense and it has nothing to do with “free trade.”

This reminds me of an article that Noah Smith wrote a few months back, Free-Market Ideology and the Burden of Proof. It was about tax cuts and regulation reductions and their effects on the economy. He said basically, “Let’s assume that Reagan’s changes really helped the economy in the 1980s; isn’t it likely that making taxes even lower and getting rid of even more regulation will have — at best — a far smaller effect on the economy?” I feel the same way about trade agreements: getting rid of trade barriers in the past was doubtless a good idea. But are we really likely to gain much now? Reducing tariffs from 50% to 5% was a much bigger deal than reducing them from 5% to 0%.

And that’s why when we look at the new trade deals they don’t seem to have much to do with their stated intent. Baker has done everything but run through the streets banging pots to bring attention to this. We aren’t talking “free trade” when “one of the main thrusts of the deal is to increase patent and copyright protections.” That’s not about bringing prices down for consumers — quite the opposite, actually. That’s about providing certain industries with economic protection — industries that have a lot of political power.

There is a cargo cult aspect to this too. Thomas Friedman famously said, “I wrote a column supporting the CAFTA, the Caribbean Free Trade initiative. I didn’t even know what was in it. I just knew two words: free trade.” That’s true of most of the trade deal boosters who don’t have a direct stake in the matter: trade deals helped the economy in the past so they must always be good under all conditions. And in the case of Friedman: the deal didn’t even have to be about free trade — it just had to claim to be about it.

William Jennings Bryan once spoke about how the financial types wanted to “crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.” Well, now it is a cross of free trade. And the people advocating it today are no more well informed than the gold standard types were then.

Why the Economy Does Better Under Democrats

Mark ThomaIt is well known (among liberals at least), that the economy has done much better under Democratic administrations than under Republicans — going back to World War II. And the difference is big: it’s almost double in terms of GDP growth. But I’ve always been skeptical about the claim. While it is certainly true, it isn’t based upon a lot of data — just 12 presidencies. And besides, I tended to think that the president doesn’t have that big an effect on the economy. But then I read Mark Thoma in The Fiscal Times, The Political Party of the President Matters for the Economy.

Thoma is a liberal, but he’s no bomb thrower. He’s a very careful economist. If it had been just anyone writing such an article, I probably would have passed it by. But instead, I read it, and he makes a very compelling case. He goes through the many ways that presidents do, in fact, effect the economy. It wasn’t all new to me, but it I wasn’t thinking too clearly even about the stuff that I knew. One thing that did surprise me is that because people don’t stay on the Federal Reserve board for very long, both George W Bush and Obama were able to fill it with all their own people. That matters. As Thomas put it, if we had had a Republican in the White House “does anyone doubt that policy would have been much different? Would interest rates still be at the lower bound? Would the Fed’s balance sheet be as large?”

The more obvious way the president matters is in fiscal policy. Democrats approach recessions in ways that actually help: tax cuts for the poor and middle classes; extended unemployment insurance; infrastructure spending. Republicans approach recessions the way they do everything: tax cuts for the rich. Even though “there’s little evidence that cutting taxes on the wealthy spurs economic growth, particularly in a severe recession when the tax reductions mostly end up as idle savings.” Basically, a recession is just an excuse for Republicans to do what they want to do anyway.

What’s more, individuals and businesses are more confident about the economic outlook when the Democrats are in charge. So they spend and invest more. That, I must say, is a bit of a shock to me. If the people know that the economy will do better under the Democrats, why do they ever vote for the Republicans? I understand that turnout is an issue. But if even businesses know it, why hasn’t there been a huge amount of pressure on the Republican Party to change its economic policies?

When put this way, it all seems so clear. The Republicans really are all about the shock doctrine: they don’t care about doing what is best for the economy; they have a set of things they want to do — which they always want to do — and that is what they do. It would be like going to a dentist who only knows how to pull teeth. Before long, you would have no teeth.

If you want to do a little low key activism, you might discuss this issue with people who aren’t much into politics. You don’t have to mention policies. You just have to talk about how they feel about the economy under Democrats and Republicans. Because the last time the economy did reasonably well under a Republican was under Reagan — 30 years ago. And all the Republican Party has offered since are the same policies, only more so. And it hasn’t worked. And it isn’t intended to. It is intended to just take more money away from you and me and give it to the rich.

Morning Music: Japanese Punk Rock

Bin Bin JiroThis week, we are in Japan. Since I first discovered The Blue Hearts a few years back, I’ve been vaguely aware that Japan had a strong punk scene. But I’m just going to warn you right now: I’m not going to have that much to say about these bands. I often (as is the case today) won’t even be sure what the names of the songs are. And in general (as is also the case today), I won’t have much of an idea what the songs are about. But the songs are all great.

We start the week with Garlic Boys — a band that started in 1985 and are still performing today. According to Wikipedia, they are considered by some the “godfathers of [the] new school Japanese hardcore.” In this country, hardcore has become something of a farce. The bands have little character. I doubt that either Black Flag or Dead Kennedys — Much less Minutemen! — would be accepted in the movement. I don’t know if that’s true there as well. But it certainly isn’t true of today’s song. We are going to listen to the very chant-y song that is named, “あんた飛ばしすぎ” — which Google translates as, “You’re Skipping Too.” It is off their 1996 EP ビンビンジロ, which means (if that is the right word) Bin Bin Jiro.

This song seems to be about a guy drinking to forget a woman who left him. But it’s really hard to say. There is definitely a lot of drinking in the song. And I get the impression that the singer looks down on people who drink to excess — thus the powerful denouement when he admits to doing it himself. But reading Japanese translations are very much like the stereotype, “Drink resounds in left to good though it is usually timid person a rant in it off that involved drunk people of guy rules useless change drunk too skip.” The fact that English speakers learn Japanese, and Japanese speakers learn English is very impressive.

I hope you appreciate all that information, because even finding out that much was a lot of work!

Anniversary Post: Pope Urban VII’s Short Run

Pope Urban VIIOn this day in 1590, Pope Urban VII died. Given all this Pope Francis madness last week, I thought it would be nice to talk about Urban VII. He did some nice things. He banned tobacco from in and around churches. He subsidized bakers in Rome so they could sell bread cheaply to the poor. But mostly, he’s known for dying: he was only pope for 13 calendar days. That’s the shortest papacy in history.

But he has a lot of competition. Of the 266 popes that the Catholic Church has had, there are ten who served for between 16 and 34 days. A total of at least 23 served less than a year. And there’s also Pope-elect Stephen — a man who died so fast (Three days!) that he didn’t even make it to his consecration and thus isn’t generally considered a pope.

Currently, Pope Francis is sitting at roughly a quarter the way up with two and half years, but he is still alive of course. Benedict XVI served almost 8 years, and that puts him in the middle of popes. Of course, he’s still alive too — just not pope. Well, he still has the title — it’s kind of weird. He’s pope but not the real pope. Anyway, I suppose I should mention that the longest reigning pope was Pope Pius IX (1846 – 1878). He did live a long time, but it was mostly due to the fact that he became pope at the age of 54. He is the joker who came up with “papal infallibility.” The same is true for the number two man, John Paul II, who was only 58. That gave him 26 years to shame AIDS-ravaged Africa into avoiding condoms. We might have been better off if these men had served terms more like Urban VII.