The New “Climate Always Changes” Ruse

Climate Change Is a HoaxLast night, I got involved in a long comment thread on Google+ about global warming. It pretty much summed up why I hate talking about this stuff. I don’t mind people going around spouting their nonsense, but don’t claim just because you read an article on some denier website that you have it all figured out. I spent a decade of my life doing little other than working on this stuff; I have the credentials and I know the science. But let me yield one point: most people who accept global warming are pretty ignorant too. But there is a big difference.

We all depend upon experts. I don’t know that the water I drink is safe. I just assume that the experts at the water works know what their doing and I’m not being poisoned with lead. This is the way that we must live our lives. So being ignorant of global warming but just accepting that climate scientists know what they’re doing is reasonable. Being ignorant of global warming but denying it because Marco Rubio and his oil industry fueled party tells you to is not (Not! Not! Not!) reasonable.

I specifically bring up Marco Rubio because in the thread last night there was a lot of talk about him, although I never heard his name uttered. Suddenly, the global warming deniers are repeating his new argument: the climate is always changing! The implication is that there’s no way we can know if humans are causing climate change because the climate would be changing if we weren’t here. Sigh.

Let me give you a good example of the problem with this way of looking at things. Over the long term, the stock market has an upward trend. The companies traded publicly are worth more on the whole every year. And yet, the stock market is random as anything. It goes up! It goes down! It is so unpredictable that the nightly news tells you how much it went up or down every day, even though in the long run, it doesn’t matter because it is going up!

The climate works exactly the same way. And there have been hundreds, maybe even thousands, of brilliant mathematicians over the centuries who have figured out ways to extract trends from very noisy data. So what this new line of attack is all about is disparaging science. These people might as well be Ken Ham: throw up their hands and say, “We just can’t know!” Unless the temperature is 80° this year and then 81° next year and then 82° the year after, there is nothing we can say. The climate is always changing. Who knows? Maybe it is as Tina Fey parodied Sarah Palin, “It’s just God hugging us closer.”

What most bugs me about all of this is the complete disregard of the Milankovitch cycles, which explain how differences in the tilt of the earth, its precession, and the eccentricity of its orbit explain the ice age cycle. One of the best articles I ever read in graduate school was about this one-dimensional model of the earth using Milankovitch theory. It found four distinct glacial states of the earth. The point was that the earth moved quickly from one state to another. The states are: no major glaciers (the state about 10,000 years ago—the Holocene), glaciers covering Greenland (where we are supposed to be now but won’t be for long), glaciers covering Canada, and glaciers covering the United States (the state about 100,000 years ago—the Tarantian).

All of this is due to radiative forcing. But it’s existence does not mean that thermal forcing from greenhouse gases is not also happening on top of that. By the Marco Rubio theory, Milankovitch must have been wrong. Ice ages just happen. “Tide comes in, tide goes out, you can’t explain it!” The underlying theory here is that the climate changes all the time for no reason whatsoever. Denial of global warming is like cancer denial. “There was a man who lived to be a hundred and he smoked every day of his life!” That may well be true, but the fact remains that pushing red hot nicotine into your lungs for a long period of time hurts your body. And pushing large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere hurts the human race, and most likely very much more.

The Erotica of Edouard-Henri Avril

Edouard-Henri Avril - 31It’s quite a day for birthdays. There are people like Alexander Pope (best known for not being Pope Alexander), stride pianist Fats Waller, and aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss. Google is celebrating fossil collector Mary Anning. But I’m taking a different path today—a very different path.

On this day in 1849, the great illustrator and painter Edouard-Henri Avril was born. (He used the pseudonym Paul Avril.) He is best known as a book illustrator, and more specifically, an erotic book illustrator. If you listen to conservatives, you would think that before 1967, sex was something men did to women who put up with it until it was over. But reading old biographies of people like Cervantes, you see that sex has been a varied and creative activity for a very long time.

Before I get to some of Avril’s erotic masterpieces, I’m going to create a fold. I do this just because I don’t want to upset anyone. I’ve mostly eliminated coarse language from the site. And while I think pictures of sex acts are perfectly charming and not at all akin to coarse language (which I’ve come to think of as lazy and crude), I will tip my hat to social norms.

It may be that I’m just naive, but many of Avril’s illustrations seem sweet to me. The following image is what I imagine happens after the curtain falls at the end of Cat on a Hot Tin Roof. But I’ll admit, it could just be a man with a random prostitute. I like how clearly the woman’s control is rendered:

Avril - 14

Most of Avril’s illustrations are a bit more adventurous. There are lots of orgies, which include both female and male homoerotica, as in the following:

Avril - 29

Some of the pictures I find kind of creepy, like The Ceremonial of Fanny’s Initiation. It shows Fanny having sex with a man (there are many in this series), while a bunch of Georgian period gentle folk watch. I assume Fanny is some kind of a prostitute, because she is always portrayed as capable but disinterested, unlike the women in his other series. Here is a good example Fanny and the Sailor:

Fanny and the Sailor - Avril

I will just leave you with the illustration that really made me put this below the fold. Bestiality is certainly part of human sexuality. But I’m really glad that Avril illustrates this without romanticizing it. That goat is not happy:

Avril - 28

Happy birthday Edouard-Henri Avril!

Perfect Day

Comfort and JoyI probably shouldn’t tell this story. All my friends will hate me. No, they both already know.

Recently, I was thinking about the perfect day of my life. I came home from work. My roommate was gone. She was the bartender at a strip club. She had been a stripper herself when she was younger. I’ve known a lot of strippers. I like them. I like how they manage to get men to give them money for nothing. Men are pigs and deserve it.

My roommate was one of those great female friends that I’ve had where there really was no sexual interest on either side. On my side, I’m just not that sexual. On her side, I’m ugly. So she’s off serving beers to the guys, probably getting tips that are bigger than the naked women. And I am all alone.

So I walk down to the video store where the guy there likes me because I’m into the same kind of movies he’s into. And the gal there probably has a crush on me, but I don’t realize it at the time because I’m kind of an idiot. It’s too bad too, because she had really good taste in movies too. After flirting with her a bit, I rented Comfort and Joy, which is still not available on DVD in this country, which is a sin against God and country and pretty much anything else you can name. But this was in the days before DVDs, so I just rented the VHS, which you can still get.

I walk home, because this is Portland, where you can do that kind of thing because things are close by. And on my way, I stopped at a local cafe that was just closing. I buy a bowl of tomato soup (not cream), which came with a big piece of sour dough french bread. And then at home, I watch the movie and eat my soup and bread. And it is wonderful. No. It is perfect.

There have been many other great times in my life. And most of them involved other people. I used to host a lot of dinner and cocktail parties. When I was very naughty, I hosted cocktail parties that had secret cocktail parties inside them. Oh yes, I’ve been around!

But you really can’t beat a little flirting, some nice food, and a Bill Forsyth film. I really can’t imagine ever topping that.

High Taxes Killed the Movies!

Ronald ReaganThis is delicious!

Back in 1981, when the recently elected President Ronald Reagan was pushing to lower income taxes, he said something that is really great to the Washington Post. Unfortunately, that particular article doesn’t seem to be online, so I’ve had to get it from The Christian Science Monitor, No “Voodoo” in Dole’s Tax Cut.

Are you ready, because this is really great. Wanna get a beer? Some popcorn? Okay, here we go:

When I was in the movies, I would reach the point each year when, after the second movie, I’d be in the 90 percent bracket, so I wouldn’t make any more movies that year. And it wasn’t just me. Bogart and Gable and others did the same thing.

There’s a serious part of the this, but let’s just bask in the glow of that false equivalence. The great Hollywood stars: Bogart, Gable, and… Reagan?! You gotta give it to the guy, he didn’t lack for confidence. Let’s see now: Bogart starred in Casablanca and The African Queen. I assume you’ve heard of those. Gable starred in the Oscar sweeping It Happened One Night (also one of my very favorite movies) and a little sleeper called Gone With the Wind. And Reagan starred in (well: co-starred in) Knute Rockne, All American and Bedtime for Bonzo. For the record, Bonzo Goes to College was far better, but Reagan wasn’t in it. Not that I’m implying anything!

But the truth is that the high tax rate was not actually limiting Bogart and Gable from making films. From 1936 onward, the top marginal tax rate was at least 9 percentage points higher than it was when Reagan was complaining about the tax rate in 1981. But Bogart wasn’t making two pictures per year. Of course, he really didn’t become a star until High Sierra in 1941. But from 1945 onward, when he was a big star and the top tax bracket was 90% or more, he made a lot of films. In 1953, with a tax rate of 92%, he made three big pictures: The Caine Mutiny, Sabrina, and The Barefoot Contessa.

Similarly, with Gable, who was a star much earlier, he made five films the year he won the Oscar for It Happened One Night. He only made two the year of Gone With the Wind, but that isn’t surprising since the principal photography for that one film took up over half the year. Regardless, you know that if it took Reagan two films to reach the 90% tax rate, that Bogart and Gable reached it in one film easily.

But if you look at stars today: Johnny Depp or George Clooney, they also make about two films per year. This is despite the much lower top marginal tax bracket and the much lower capital gains rate, which they get as being executive producers.

What’s especially interesting though, is that Reagan was lying about himself. Throughout the 1940s and early 1950s (after which he got into television), he made tons of movies. So I don’t even know what he’s talking about. Maybe the dementia was already strong in 1981.

Reagan went on to talk about how the fact that he wasn’t willing to make more movies meant that grips and other movie professionals were hurt. The idea I guess is that rather than find another actor, the studio would just not make a movie because people only wanted to see a chimp work with Ronald Reagan. The studios make what the studios make. If George Clooney dies tonight, Hollywood will make exactly the same number of pictures next year.

Anyway, I thought that quote was funny as hell and I had to share it. It is weird though, that conservatives always talk about how liberals don’t see the world as it is. But they just make up stories to prove their points. If we were to believe Reagan, To Have and Have Not never would have been made, because the top tax rate was 94%. What was Bogart thinking!

All the Sorta Gay Sorta Celebs

Cary Grant

You know me: I love link bait. So when I saw this headline, I had to click over to an article on Rant Lifestyle, 25 Celebs That Shocked Us When They Came Out as Gay. It’s kind of a challenge, because really, how likely is it that anyone was shocked when whomever came out as gay. In fact, recently, I’ve been thinking about writing an article, “Celebs that Shocked Me When They Turned Out as Straight.” I have quite a list. Robert Preston as married for 47 years. Tony Randall was married for 50 years to Florence Gibbs, when she died. But he was so heterosexual that he got married three years later at the age of 75 and sired two children. But maybe it’s just me: I automatically assume any man who was a musical theater star is gay. I’m also surprised that Grace Jones is straight. Regardless, at this point, an article about shockingly straight celebs strikes me as a lot more interesting than one about gay celebs. (And yes: I am using the term “celebs” simply because it annoyed me in the original headline!)

The list of 25 was divided into two groups: one small and one large. The small one consisted of people I had actually heard of. And there was one shocker that I will come back to. But first, let me list all the celebs that I have never heard of: Matt Bomer, the star of a show I’ve never heard of; Jason Collins, a basketball player who bravely came out after he retired—the article says he “truly came out” as opposed to Oscar Robertson who “falsely came out”; Raven Symone who appears to star in a show with her name in it; Lady Sovereign who is some kind of cute (I use that in the worse possible sense) rapper; Amber Heard is one of those models who looks hot emerging from bodies of water—but she’s not gay, she’s bisexual, unless, you know, Johnny Depp is a transvestite (which is possible); Zachary Quinto is a television actor with fabulous hair; Victor Garber is someone who acts in a lot of bad movies but may be great—how would I know?; Jonathan Bennett is a “leader star” which I think is Rant Lifestyle for “we don’t know how to write”; Matt Dallas played the title character in a television show I’ve never heard of; Sarah Paulson was in a television show; Jonathan Knight was in a boys band; Suze Orman who is one of those celebs that don’t seem to qualify as celebs at all—or maybe celeb isn’t short for celebrity (I’m so out of it, how would I know?).

Most of the people who I actually knew from their work I also knew explicitly were gay, because, you know, they talk about it all the time. For example, Ian Mckellen, who frankly couldn’t hide it if he wanted to. It was much more surprising to learn that Derek Jacobi was gay because (1) he doesn’t talk about it so much, and (2) he’s a better actor. It was only watching him nancing around while directing Hamlet that I found out. (Jacobi is not on the list because he wasn’t in Lord of the Rings I guess.) Another example is Portia de Rossi. Was not her marriage to Ellen DeGeneres something like an American Royal Wedding. Jeez!

It turns out that Ricky Martin is gay. I didn’t even know who he was in 1999, but after seeing this I knew:

Jodie Foster? Ha ha ha!

I didn’t know who Gillian Anderson was by name. But I found out that she was a star on a show I know was really big but which I never saw because I thought taste required it. She seems to be gay only in the sense that she had a lesbian affair in high school. Since then, she’s had two husbands, one long-term boyfriend, and three children.

I also didn’t know David Hyde Pierce by name, but of course, he’s the guy who played Niles Crane on Frasier. And of course he was gay. The producers got together and said, “Kelsey Grammer is just a total unlikeable jerk, we need to pair him up with with a nice gay guy.” It was magic! I was just disappointed that the series didn’t end with Frasier falling down in the park and being eaten by rabid squirrels.

Kelly McGillis has spent a lot of time married to men, but I guess the new haircut sealed it for anyone wondering for at least ten years.

Nathan Lane? Ha ha ha!

Cynthia Nixon is bisexual. She had a husband and two children with him. Now she has a wife. It’s weird how homosexuality is like blackness. If you are one percent black, you’re black; if you’re one percent gay, you’re gay. I did find out she’s suffered from breast cancer and has become an advocate. But I have no idea what the status of the disease is. She was first diagnosed in 2006, so hopefully she has made a full recovery.

Wanda Sykes? Yes, if you had never seen Sykes do her stand-up routine and had never heard her talk you might have missed this. She was once married to record producer Dave Hall, which might have pushed her over the edge. I know that I’ve remained straight all these years because of Dave Hall. (I’m kidding! I’m sure Dave Hall is a perfectly nice guy and great in the sack!)

Annie Leibovitz? Say it ain’t so! If only Susan Sontag were around to confirm or deny!

Okay, now I have to get serious. Was Eleanor Roosevelt gay? It doesn’t really look like it. Maybe she lusted in her heart. She certainly was comfortable with lesbian couples. And she had a very strong friendship with Lorena Hickok. But there is no evidence of them consummating it. What’s more, I think people want to jump from physical affection to sex when it isn’t necessarily warrented. Human beings are complex, and Eleanor Roosevelt was more complex than most. Regardless, her sex life is about the least interesting thing about one of the most interesting people of the twentieth century. Oh, and did I mention she had six children? Also: those rumors about Roosevelt have been around forever—they are hardly shocking.

Now for a real shock: Cary Grant was gay! Except, well, he wasn’t. This is a similar situation with Eleanor Roosevelt. Grant did have some strong friendships with men, and I’m afraid everyone wants to sexualize them. It’s possible that he was bisexual, we’ll never really know. We do know he was married five times and those women all confirm that they had a lot of sex. But I think there is something in a lot of us who like the idea that someone as witty and debonair as Grant must be gay. You know, someone like Noel Coward.

Regardless of all that, you can bet that when a website offers you “25 Celebs That Shocked Us When They Came Out as Gay,” we are not going to be shocked and many of the people are not going to be gay. Well, at least the list didn’t include Oscar Wilde or Alan Turing. But Nathan Lane? Really?! I mean, really: really?!

You’ll Find Everything in Balzac

Honore de BalzacToday: a love story.

You may remember back a couple of days when I wrote about The Music Man. My favorite part in the movie is when Marian’s mother asks what the gentleman wanted and Marian replies, “You’ll find it in Balzac.” I must have been seven years old when I heard that line and I knew I had to find out about this Balzac character. Her mother then later mentioned that, “She never read it.” That’s funny because Honore de Balzac, who was born on this day in 1799, wrote 91 essays, novels, and short stories, in addiction to 46 unfinished works all collectively known La Comedie Humaine (The Human Comedy). Balzac was not at all a smutty writer, but he is pretty much the first realist writer—he wrote of the world (post-Bonaparte France) as it was. He was a huge and direct influence on Dickens, but there are few great writers who followed him who were not, most notably Henry James.

Ewelina HanskaIn 1931, Balzac published La Peau de chagrin (The Magic Skin) about a poor and lonely man who gets a magic bit of rawhide that will grant all his desires. But with each desire, the rawhide shrinks and takes part of the man’s vitality. This isn’t like a the genii in a bottle where you make a wish, he finds that he can’t control it. The book ends with the hero wanting to die in the arms of the woman he loves while she runs from him, trying to kill herself in order to save his life. Of course, just as with The Monkey’s Paw (published 70 years later), the rawhide will not be denied and the two consummate their love before he dies in her arms.

The following year, Balzac got an anonymous letter without a return address. It criticizes the novel for its cynicism and its negative portrayal of women. Balzac was so impressed with the letter that he placed a classified ad in the Gazette de France. Soon he found that the letter came from Ewelina Hanska. She was in a marriage of convenience to a nobleman and landlord, so the two could not run off together. For 15 years they corresponded, until Hanska’s husband died in 1941. Thus began a nine year courtship. (Apparently, Franz Liszt was also trying to win her favor.)

The two finally married on 14 March 1850. But by then, Balzac’s health was failing and he died six months later—kind of like in the novel. Still, it is sweet that the two managed to get together. And they had been friends for almost 25 years.

Happy birthday Honore de Balzac!

Biodiversity and the Charlatans at The Daily Caller

The Daily CallerLast week, The Daily Caller published, Global Warming Is Increasing Biodiversity Around the World. That caught my eye because apart from the obvious practical problems of global warming in the case of humans simply surviving, biodiversity is probably the most important issue. And here’s the thing: a warmer world could really bring about more biodiversity. Of course, it would mostly be more kinds of insects and algae. There are already thousands of species of termites and over ten thousand species of ants. There are perhaps a million species of algae. So this is really not the kind of biodiversity that we’re looking for.

I smelled a rat anyway. After all, there have been all kinds of papers that have indicated that species are dying off. If one paper found that biodiversity was increased by global warming, that does not means that “global warming is increasing biodiversity around the world.” But what do you expect from a libertarian website? Some kind of reasonable discussion of the facts? But I was interested to find out what this paper had to say. Did extreme weather manage to give us another kind of termite while killing off a dozen bird species? Did we have a million and one species of algae in exchange for more damage for our coral reefs? What could be this great news that The Daily Caller was trumpeting?

Well, Media Matters was interested in the same question, so Denise Robbins contacted the lead author of the study, Maria Dornelas. The scientist was kind of angry that her research was so obviously distorted for political ends. But it was hardly necessary to talk to her about it. The paper is titled, Assemblage Time Series Reveal Biodiversity Change but Not Systematic Loss. But before I explain what the paper reported, I have to explain a bit about the science.

There is what we call α-diversity. This is how much diversity there is in a single environment. Think of it like your house: if you have people from different background, the α-diversity is high. For example: if I lived with Bill Gates, we’d have a very high α-diversity. There is also what we call β-diversity. This is how much diversity there is between environments. So if the people in the house across the street were Warren Buffett and some other poor guy, then the β-diversity would be very low. Got it?

What Dornelas and her colleagues found was that α-diversity was pretty much unchanged. So in any particular forest (for example), there was just as much diversity as there was before. They don’t know what’s happening to the more important β-diversity. But they have a hunch. Dornelas provided the following thought experiment for how to think about this:

[L]ets imagine three islands, one has blue birds, one has green birds and one has yellow birds. Blue bird island gets warmer, and our imaginary blue birds are particularly sensitive to climate variation, and so they go extinct. But their island is now suitable for green birds, which colonize it. Green bird island stays the same, but green birds are also introduced to yellow bird island. Yellow birds cannot fight the competition and go extinct. At the end we have the same number of species in each of the islands (1), but the species that live there are different, and in total we have lost 2/3 of the species.

Got that? The α-diversity is exactly the same, but the β-diversity has gone way down. The fact that the α-diversity is the same on each island is meaningless.

I don’t really mind people disagreeing with me and being totally ignorant of the science they are talking about. But that’s not what The Daily Caller is doing. They are just lying. And what for? They are lying so that oil companies and others who are already really rich can continue to get even richer. It is times like these that I wish I believed in God and could take comfort in their eternal torture in a deep level of Dante’s Inferno.

Instead, at best, 20 years from now we’ll get a meek, “Oops!”

Impulse Control and Global Warming

Chad Vincent StantonIt’s rare that I read an article that really changes my way of thinking about a subject, but such was the case over the weekend at Political Animal where Chad Stanton wrote, Self Destruction, We’re Headed For Self Destruction. It’s a compare and contrast kind of article. He reminded me of how people said what a big deal it was in the 1980s that “urban decay” was the result of some kind of social pathology. Basically, it is a nice way of saying, “The reason blacks are doing so poorly in our society is that there’s something wrong with the black man!”

And what was number one on the list of the black man’s wrongs: poor impulse control. Rather than saving his money to pay his future tuition to Harvard, he was buying Air Jordans! No wonder the black man wasn’t getting ahead. It had nothing to do with racist attitudes and poor schools and white privilege. Nope: Air Jordans! Impulse control! The black people in the ghettos didn’t think long term. It was all now now now!

Stanton noticed that there’s another kind of “impulse control” problem in the United States. It’s a much bigger problem, even if you yield the point that there is an impulse control problem with impoverished people (which you shouldn’t). The impulse control problem he notices is with our approach to global warming. Remember recently when Marco Rubio said that sure maybe we are destroying the nice climate that we and the rest of the biosphere evolved to thrive in? But we couldn’t do anything about it because it might hurt the economy now. I already noted that he has the economics all wrong, A Depressed Economy Is the Time to Address Global Warming. But Stanton’s argument is clear: the global warming deniers (or hedgers) have an impulse control problem: they want good things now now now; they aren’t willing to forego them for our long-term benefit.

He is absolutely right. But this is the way things work in the United States. When a young surfer uses the tools available to him to support his lifestyle, the conservatives go crazy. But when rich men use every tax loophole to pay as little as possible, well, that’s to be applauded! That’s because the same behavior that is noble for the rich is despicable for the poor. That’s why no one at HSBC went to jail while casual cannabis smokers can spend decades in prison.

What really angers me is that in forty years when things really are bad, the children and the grandchildren of the rich people who today lack impulse control will be living high in the best areas. And the huge numbers of displaced poor will still have their poverty blamed on their lack of impulse control.

Afterwrod

I think that Chad Stanton is a young pundit to watch out for. You can find him on Twitter; Instagram (which I don’t really understand); And Very Very Urban on Tumblr. Check him out!

Timothy Geithner: Awful Person and Liar

Tim GeithnerDo you know what I really hate? People who do a really bad job working for the government, and then retire to high paying jobs and six-figure book deals. Today, of course, I’m speaking of Timothy Geithner and his book, Stress Test. Now sure: Geithner isn’t the worst guy in the world. In fact, I think he was the perfect Treasury Secretary for Obama: basically a Bush kind of guy who is very concerned about the global economy. But he doesn’t care about it because instability actually kills people. He cares about it because millionaire bankers might not get their yearly bonuses.

In the 1950s, they said, “What’s good for GM is good for America.” Well, that wasn’t true, but it was a hell of a lot more true than what they say today, “What’s good for Goldman Sachs is good for America. Because at least what was good for GM was not generally bad for America. Despite the repugnant “Progress” commercials that Goldman Sachs is flooding the world with, in generally what is good for them is bad for America. And by “America” I mean the people.

Aside from Geithner spending what is apparently hundreds of pages showing that it wasn’t just the banks who were stress tested, he makes some economic arguments. He was very big for bailing out the banks, because, hey, each tear a millionaire sheds causes an angel to burst into flames. But when it came to things that would help the regular economy—you know, places you shop; places you work—he didn’t really care. Now Geithner claims he was not against stimulus. “I was not an austerian.” But as Paul Krugman pointed out this morning, three years ago when the heroic Christina Romer pressed the White House for more stimulus, Geithner snapped. “Stimulus, he told Romer, was ‘sugar,’ and its effect was fleeting. The administration, he urged, needed to focus on long-term economic growth, and the first step was reining in the debt.” Sounds like he was very much an austerian. And, not to put too fine a point on it:

Timothy Geithner is a liar!

But it is more than that. Geithner argues that the administration was right to bail out the banks while just letting homeowners suffer and allow a foreclosure crisis. His reasoning is that doing that wouldn’t have really helped the economy. “The economy” is Geithner speak for the millionaire bankers who invite him to parties and hire him for high paid jobs like president of Warburg Pincus. But it looks even worse than that.

Two economists—Atif Mian and Amir Sufi—have looked at his economics, Why Tim Geithner Is Wrong on Homeowner Debt Relief. Geithner wrote, “We did not believe, though we looked at this question over and over, that a much larger program focused directly on housing could have a material impact on the broader economy… it would have increased annual personal consumption by just 0.1 to 0.2 percent” So it wasn’t worth doing. Mian and Sufi’s article is a little technical, but they find a number of problems with Geithner’s assumptions. First, there is this thing called the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). This is how much less you will spend if the value of your house goes down. There is a vast amount of research on this and the number comes out to be between 5% and 10%. Geithner assumed 2%—less than half the lower limit! What is that I smell? A rat, perhaps?

Mian and Sufi then go on to do the calculation correctly and find that the actual number would have been ten times higher. And remember: this is just the direct effect. Their article gets into some other details that I’m not that interested in. But let’s assume their base number of 1.3% increase in GDP from mortgage forgiveness. We usually multiply any direct number by 1.5 because spending spreads through the economy. So that’s a 2.0% increase in GDP. Roughly one and half million jobs are created for every 1% increase in GDP. So this program that Timothy Geithner thought wasn’t worth doing would have created three million jobs.

But even if Geithner’s 0.2% number had been right, it still would have represented a half million jobs. But the truth is that Geithner was, is, and always will be focused on debt. Because that’s what’s in the interests of the rentier class that he represented and now is officially part of as the president of Warburg Pincus. Not to put too fine a point on it:

Timothy Geithner is an awful person!

He should be chased out of the country, not held up as our savior.

Malcolm X

Malcolm XOn this day in 1925, Malcolm X was born. He was the black man who scared the white folks. And for that, I will always love him. What’s interesting about that is that the Nation of Islam is a conservative group. And if you listen to conservatives today, what they claim that the black community should do is exactly what the Nation of Islam did do and still does. But these very same conservatives are terrified by the group and especially its charismatic leaders. I don’t think it’s at all hyperbolic to say that conservatives want blacks to be separatists but they are terrified that they will be self-actualizing.

The way I see political action, it is necessary to have extremists—or at least those who people perceive as extremists. In the 1960s, whites were afraid of Martin Luther King, but not like they were afraid of Malcolm X. And that gave King more power than he otherwise would have had. As it was, many whites considered King a rabble-rouser and a law breaker. To this day, I read people who claim that he was a communist. But in the end, he became the “good negro” as compared to Malcolm X who was the “bad” or “angry negro.”

(This is why I blame the Democratic Party for the radicalization of the Republican Party. If you want to meet in the middle, you have to give people choices at the edges. All the New Democratic pushing to the center has just pushed the Republicans to the right. Malcolm X and Martin Luther King both understood this simple concept that completely eludes the likes of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.)

I don’t agree with racial separation because I don’t believe in race. It is just a construct powerful people created to justify their domination of our shared resources. This is something that Ta-Nehisi Coates has written about eloquently for a long time. But I understand Malcolm X’s belief in it. What’s more, I still think it is a valid way for oppressed minorities to thrive. But I still hold on to what is probably a fanciful notion of all of us breading with each other and turning into one big happy brown skinned “race.”

I think that Malcolm X’s greatest work was in front of him, so that his assassination is even more tragic than King’s. Like King, the man had not even reached the age of 40! And I am constantly struck with the fact that Malcolm X was born on the same day as Pol Pot, one of the great villains of the 20th century who lived to be almost twice the age of Malcolm X and died of natural causes. The universe is unjust and thus so too is our culture.

Happy birthday Malcolm X!

A Brief Intro to Bernard Frouchtben

Bernard FrouchtbenI’ve had a very pleasant night. Yesterday, I learned that we are going to go to the Santa Clara Antiques Roadshow. This is kind of a big deal, because we are in possession of a badly damaged painting by a great American Primitive painter Bernard Frouchtben, and we are very keen to learn if it would be worth the thousands of dollars to restore it. Don’t get me wrong: if I had the money, I would restore it regardless. The painting is fabulous and Frouchtben deserves it. A great wrong was done to him and to art itself in the way it was neglected.

As I’ve gotten older, I’ve become much more interested in idiosyncratic art. There are literally a million guys who can play blues in a standard way that is totally professional and enjoyable. But I’d much rather a blues player who shows me something different—something that tells me about him. That’s why I’ve been a booster for films like Death Bed: the Bed that Eats and The Final Sacrifice. Of course, none of this is to say that these artists don’t have great talent and Frouchtben certainly had plenty of that. In fact, I think it is wrong to call him a Primitive, but that is how he’s classified.

I am working on a full article about him. I’ve done a ton of research on him, and I’m in contact with his grandson, who is also a talented artist himself. At this time, I’m not going to show you the painting I have, because it is in really bad shape and you would get the wrong idea. So I present to you this black and white version of Lonely Man on a Lonely Road:

Lonely Man on a Lonely Road

I think you can see some of what I find so interesting about him. There should be more within a couple of weeks.

Heroes for a Debased Culture

ConstantineI’ve only seen two films by Francis Lawrence. You probably know him from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. I haven’t seen that. I try to avoid films that are aimed at that just about puberty demographic. Plus the series is apparently where reasonably interesting directors go to cash in. The first one was directed by Gary Ross, a man who really does have greatness in him and made one excellent film (Pleasantville) and one good film (Seabiscuit). And then didn’t do anything much for ten years before deciding to get in on that middle-school money.

Lawrence is rather a different bread of director. He spent the first decade of his career making videos for songs aimed at tone deaf children. So when he turned to making films, well, what do you expect? What I expect are visually stunning films that tell incoherent stories filled with stereotypes rather than characters spouting dialog that sounds like it comes out of an Ed Wood pulp novel he dashed off in an evening. (Ed Wood was known for being able to crank out books fast; he might have done great things if he had slowed down.)

I don’t know anything about Lawrence’s religious beliefs, but based upon Constantine and I Am Legend, it is hard not to think that he wasn’t raised Catholic. God is the salvation in both movies. In the first, John Constantine acts a kind of antihero Jesus Christ who saves the world from Satan. In the second, Dr Robert Neville dies to save the woman and child who bring his cure to the last outpost of humanity that is—Wait for it!—at a church. He also manages to remove all the interesting moral ambiguity of Richard Matheson’s novel.

I Am LegendLet me just make a note of something here. The remake of Night of the Living Dead better captures what Matheson was going for than any of the films based upon his book. Matheson is one of the great unheralded science fiction writers. In general, he was treated well by directors. Of course, he was a great screenwriter himself. He also wrote some of the best episodes of The Twilight Zone. And he was funny as hell as you can see in films he wrote like, The Raven and The Comedy of Terrors. But he’s gotten worse and worse treatment on the screen as the special effects have gotten better and better.

I just watched Constantine again and what really struck me is how boring the antihero has become. Sure, the antihero is more interesting than the straight hero, which we see constantly in the superhero films and anything that Bruce Willis ever stars in. But we also get the straight hero in I Am Legend, where Neville risks his life to save his dog. It’s a reversal on the old “dog villain.” Lawrence has given us the “dog hero”! Hero or antihero, it’s all just trite Hollywood stereotype: the crowd goes wild as the culture dies.

It seems to me that we deserve more interesting characters. But we will never have them so long as we tell stories of good versus evil. And that is the problem with Christian theology, or at least the pathetic made-for-children Christian theology that Americans follow. Why is it that poor people are so much more likely to steal than rich people? And when rich people steal (or murder), why are they so much less likely to be punished? Why is it that when HSBC launders a billion dollars in drug money, no one goes to jail? But commonly, when a junkie is caught with a couple of balloons of dope, he’s thrown in a cage for years for the crime of intent to distribute what is, after all, a vegetable product?

I have a serious question for you: shouldn’t those rich people be found culpable for all the desperation theft of the poor? I think Jesus would see it that way. Unfortunately, he doesn’t exist and the rich know that; that’s why they act as they do.

At the end of Constantine, the earth has been saved from all the demons taking over. But I look out on the world and I see that the demons have taken over. If you are a Christian, you must see this. You must see that the money changers and the usurers are not only thriving but that our entire culture worships them. Who is the most important man when it comes to education reform? Why it’s Bill Gates whose only claim to knowing anything is that he made a lot of money, primarily through luck. We have television shows like The Apprentice and The Shark Tank that treat rich people as though they are better and more knowledgeable than the rest of us. And the whole society widely believes that the rich are moral and the poor are immoral—based largely on things they’ve learned from the Bible. Yes, the Bible says many good things too and there are many earnest and faithful Christians. It is just that they are a small minority.

Most of what is wrong with our society and our entertainment comes from the ridiculous notion that there is some justice in the universe. And so we get our heroes and antiheroes, and our villains, charming and not. I’m not suggesting that our entertainment is what debases our society. It mostly works the other way around. But the career of someone like Francis Lawrence shows us that there is a feedback: horrible cultural icons lead to horrible entertainment leads to the elevation of another mediocrity whose money making abilities lead to another horrible cultural icon. Go team!