More Than a Little Liberal

Christian Science MonitorI was over at the Christian Science Monitor, and I got tricked into taking their Are you more (or less) conservative than Mitt Romney quiz. My result was: “You’re more than a little liberal. You’re a lefty! You might even be more liberal than President Obama. You won’t be voting for Romney come November.”

Ya think? Even more liberal than President Obama? More liberal than that corporate lackey? Let’s hope!

More interesting were the questions, which I found highly biased. Here is question number 11, with the choices:

Most Americans say decreasing US dependence on foreign oil is important. What do you think is the best plan for doing that?

  • Fossil fuels and CO2 emissions should be banned from America. Everyone should use public transportation or ride their bikes.
  • We need to work to make renewable energy and green technology economically feasible. Meanwhile, we should cautiously drill for domestic energy reserves.
  • Green technologies are too expensive. We should make permitting simpler for the energy industry, and make sure they’re not overregulated. We should also invest in nuclear power. We should worry less about decreasing CO2 outputs; that’s harmful to business.
  • Drill, baby, drill! Forget green technology. We should be exploiting domestic resources of oil and natural as as quickly as possible, whatever the cost. We can worry about the environment later.
  • What’s the big deal about energy independence? The US imports a lot of products from volatile nations. Should America also decrease its dependence on diamonds from Africa, or computer parts made in China?

So let’s see, the choices are: I’m hopelessly naive; I’m reasonable and yet I think we should drill; drill and nuke; drill; and let someone else drill.

I picked the second choice, because the first is just silly. CO2 emissions come from a lot more things than gas for cars. This choice shows how lowly the CSM thinks of environmentalists. All of the questions had similar problems. I’ve never thought of the CSM as being conservative but apparently it is. Or at least the designers of this test were.

Two Points About Libertarians

Libertarian Glenn BeckThis always bugged me when I was a libertarian. Libertarians, almost to a man, hate unions. I, on the other hand, always thought that strong unions were absolutely essential to a libertarian utopia. If the work force could not organize themselves the same way companies do, there could be no justice. Instead, we would just have a bunch of monopolies—the great world of the robber barons. The fact that most libertarians hate unions makes me think that libertarians are not really for freedom; they are just self-congratulatory third basers[1] who only care about freedom for themselves.

One other thing about libertarians: they tend to love corporations. But the corporation is just a government provided legal status. There is nothing natural about it. If libertarians were honest about their beliefs, they would be against the corporation. But libertarians, like all conservatives, worship the rich. Thus, anything that benefits the rich, regardless how interventionist (e.g. patents, copyrights), is okay. Anything that benefits the poor, regardless of how minor the intervention (e.g. the 0.2 cent—cent not percent—per person that goes to abortions for rape victims), is tyranny. Tyranny I tell you!

And yes, Glenn Beck is very much a typical libertarian. I know there is a brand of “serious” libertarians—especially on the internet. They are even more ridiculous than the Glenn Becks of the world because they should be better able to see their obvious blind spots. I don’t know what the demographics look like, but my guess would be that Ayn Rand appeals mostly to people born of reasonably affluent people (middle class and up). I don’t mind people looking out for their own interests. I do mind when they claim what is good for them is good for everyone. And I really mind when they claim that their philosophy is “natural” and that it can be proved deductively. Please!


[1] I’ve noticed that the term “third baser” does not seem to be common. It maybe refers to Jim Hightower’s comment about George W. Bush, who was “born on third base, thought he had hit a triple.” I’ve heard similar quotes from others. Recently, it seems to be quoted, “Born on third base, thinks he hit a home run.” Romney is an excellent example of this, but I think it is more correct to say that he was born on home plate. Regardless, a “third baser” is someone who started wealthy and ended more wealthy. I think that everyone understands that the hardest thing is to get on base. It is all downhill from there.

Bad News for Romney’s Healthcare Plans

Sarah KliffSarah Kliff has a very provocative article over at WonkBlog called Romney’s Health Care Plans Don’t Exempt Today’s Seniors. As usual for the WonkBlog staff, she bends over backwards to be fair. (Fun Fact: before working for Ezra Klein, all staff must have worked for at least a year as a circus contortionist.) But the article is damning to Romney’s campaign.

The substance of the piece is not terribly new. Much of it I knew. The ACA gets rid of the Medicare prescription “doughnut hole” and Romney plans to savage Medicaid, which would hurt low income seniors and those needing long term care.

In the name of fairness, Kliff notes that some seniors will see their costs go up. The main increase would be on seniors making more than $85,000 per year—they would see their premiums increase. This represents 5% of seniors. She sums up, “Overall, though, analysts say that out-of-pocket spending by seniors would increase if the Affordable Care Act is repealed.”

The one thing not mentioned in the article is how long there would be widespread support for a program that only benefits those currently over the age of 55. I think the program would slowly and then quickly be looted. This is especially true when you consider that as this population ages, the per capita costs would skyrocket.

All of this bad news about the Romney plan could normally be blown off. But Romney’s main attack on Obama has been that the ACA is going to harm current seniors. The facts say otherwise. The majority of seniors will see no change or improvements. Those upper class seniors who will see their premiums rise can handle it. Anyway, they won’t be voting for Obama.

Kristen Schaal at WGA

There is surprisingly little Kristen Schaal on the internet other than her stuff on The Daily Show. The bit below is a very nice exception. She apparently hosted the WGA awards last year. I particularly liked this part:

Winning a Whale’s Tail is a huge honor. The winners tonight owe a tremendous debt of thanks to their parents, their spouses, their teachers, and their collaborators. There! I said it, so you don’t have to. All right, let’s keep the speeches short. We don’t want to be reminded that we’re in an insurance auditorium where we can’t drink.

Enjoy:

Bing It On!

I have been highly skeptical of the new Bing It On Challenge commercials. So I decided to try it—just to show those bastards their ads don’t work on me. I used the following five searches:

  1. Frankly Curious
  2. Don Quixote
  3. Madame Tutli-Putli
  4. Miller’s Crossing Homosexuality
  5. Blond Blonde

Overall, Bing is a hell of a lot better than it used to be. The results did not diverge all that much. But still, on four of the five searches, the results were clearly one sided. But while taking it, I mistook which one was Google. In two cases, I thought I had voted for Bing. I was wrong. It was a blowout with Google 4, Bing 0.

I guess I’m not a “Bing Man.” I can’t tell you have relieved I am!

<%image(20120916-bingiton.jpg|450|455|Bing It On Challenge Results)%>

Afterword

There has been a huge increase in Yahoo! searches bringing people to Frankly Curious. This has happened over the last month. I’m not sure if it is real. There are some weird things going on like lots of people landing here because of searches for Melissa Harris-Perry. I’ll eventually figure it out.

And despite the skepticism of friend when I said I thought Yahoo! and Bing produced identical search results, I was right. Yahoo! uses the Bing search engine.

Sam Seder Ups Reputation

Sam SederI’m not a big Sam Seder fan. It isn’t that he’s bad, I just don’t find him all that insightful because he isn’t especially smarter or more informed than I am. That does not mean he isn’t really good and vastly superior to pretty much everyone else you see on the TV or internet.

This weekend, he’s been guest hosting Up with Chris Hayes. The last person to do this was Ezra Klein, and as much as I like this young man, he is not up to filling Hayes’ very large shoes. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Seder is quite up to the task either, but he comes damned close. And let’s face it, Hayes wasn’t that good when he started.

Check out this excellent introduction to the crisis of poverty in America. I think that MSNBC could lose S.E. Cupp and bring on Seder for a regular spot.

Unfortunately, we have to put up with Josh Barro. But I suppose as Reasonable Conservatives go, he’s better than most.

Income Class

Romney's Middle ClassDylan Matthews over at WonkBlog writes What is the middle class? where he notes that by the definitions put forward by Romney and Obama, only 4% of the country are not middle class.

Actually, Matthews steals some of my thunder. For a long time, I’ve been advocating a definition of the classes broken down by quintiles. It just works well. If we use it then we have lower, lower-middle, middle, upper-middle, and upper classes.

In his article, he provides a useful graph of the average income of every group in addition to this Romney/Obama 4% upper class. I’ve altered the graph so that it only includes the quintiles, because I think the 4% group only confuses matters. As incomes increase they only get more unequal. This is probably why even very wealthy people don’t see themselves as rich. People who make a million dollars a year have lots of interactions with people who make $20 million. Still, the graph is distorted because it uses means rather than medians, but you get the idea:

<%image(20120916-incomeclasses.jpg|355|315|Income Distribution in Quintiles)%>

There is a wrinkle here. The Upper quintile only includes incomes of those between 80% and 99%. This makes sense, because the top 1% would distort the graph and make it less useful. According to Matthews, the cutoff for the upper class is $101,582. The other quintile borders are very close to the average of the surrounding quintiles. You can see this in the graph: the bottom four quintiles are fairly linear. It is only in the top quintile that things go wrong.

We can estimate the non-linearity of income distributions by comparing the actual border income with the simple average of the surrounding border averages. Here are the data for the top and bottom quintiles:

Class Border Error
Actual Average
Lower $20,262 $20,222 0.2%
Upper $101,582 $129,050 27.0%

Pretty stark, eh?

My point is that we should stop talking about people who make $100,000 per year as middle class. These people may feel like they are middle class, but they just aren’t. Having said this, I don’t mean to suggest that they are rich. I don’t even think someone making $250,000 a year is rich. I figure we can save the term “rich” for people in the 1%. And if it comes down to it, the 0.1% are the super rich and the 0.01% are the stinking rich.

Strange Sounds in the Echo Chamber

Echo ChamberCapt. Fogg over at Human Voices has written an amusing article about a telephone survey he did. I suspect that you’ve had one of these that appear not to be a survey but an advertisement. “Would you vote for Representative Popular if you knew that he ate live kittens? What about if you knew that he wore ear plugs so he wouldn’t have to listen to them scream? Did I mention that his reelection is the seventh sign that will herald Armageddon?”

You get the idea.

Capt. Fogg mentions that he knew the call must be from a conservative group because they always referred to the “Democrat” Party, rather than the “Democratic” Party. This is a dead give away. But he goes on:

You probably aren’t old enough to remember how easy it was to determine political polarity by noting how the speaker pronounced Vietnam. It rhymed with Pete Ham if you were for the glorious crusade to protect American freedom. Curiously the same dialect discrimination obtained with our invasion of Iraq. If it was Eye-wrack, you were for it. But these chuckleheads can’t bring themselves to acknowledge the Democratic Party by saying it right and they’re too smugly stupid to notice that I might notice. They always and steadfastly and in the face of cannon fire, call it the ‘Democrat’ Party.

I think that Capt. Fogg is wrong about these people being too smugly stupid to think he would notice. I think these kinds of idiosyncratic pronunciations start off as a signaling device, but they don’t stay that way. (Geoffrey Nuremberg has written about this, but I don’t own any of his books right now, so I can’t be all learned and shit.) I think people in these subgroups only ever hear people pronounce these things one way, so they think they are only pronounced that way.

This is illustrative of the biggest difference between conservatives and liberals. Even the most extreme liberals live in the regular world where people get most of their news from Scott Pelley and Ellen DeGeneres. But conservatives live in an alternate reality and they don’t get out much. This has major negative consequences like being able to more easily dehumanize other people. But it also affects their language. And them’s fightin’ words!

NPR Provides Platform for Rentier Class Apologist

Jeffrey M. LackerThis is unbelievable.

I fully admit that economics makes my brain hurt and that I find it profoundly confusing. But I understand the fundamentals. The same cannot be said of Jeffrey M. Lacker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. In its infinite wisdom, NPR put this idiot on the air with no one to counter him.

The kicker was that Guy Raz ends the interview by asking Lacker if, after all is said and done and QE3 works, Lacker will admit that he was wrong. Lacker says, “Course!”[1]

But there’s a problem here: the data are long in. Joseph E. Gagnon, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, explains:

After his dissenting vote last week, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Jeffrey Lacker, stated: “I do not believe that further monetary stimulus would make a substantial difference for economic growth and employment without increasing inflation by more than would be desirable.” The view that unconventional monetary policy will lead to inflation is commonly held on Wall Street. Yet, more than three years after the launch of such policies, inflation remains at or below the Fed’s target.

More to the point, this is QE3, as in “three,” as in, this is the third time we’ve done this. The other times, Lacker and his cronies said there would be inflation. Greece! Weimar Germany! Zimbabwe! Wheelbarrows of cash just to get a loaf of bread! Instead, the inflation rate is less than 2%—half the rate it was a year ago.

As Lacker states in the NPR interview: he is against the Fed doing anything about the economy and he is against the government doing anything about the economy. Lacker is an advocate for the rentier class and only the rentier class. How it is he is on the Fed Board is obvious enough. How it is NPR gave him a platform for his repudiated economic beliefs is more of a question.[2]


[1] Actually, I don’t think QE3 will work either. It may be somewhat helpful, but it certainly won’t cause inflation. With inflation less than 2% and unemployment over 8%, the Fed should not be thinking about inflation.

[2] I’m just kidding! I know exactly how he got on NPR!

Republicans Have No Ideology

Paul KrugmanThis morning, Paul Krugman notes that Mitt Romney has come out against QE3, with Romney saying that the economy “doesn’t need more artificial and ineffective measures.” He goes on to say that we shouldn’t be “printing dollars.” It is ridiculous, of course. This is the same kind of nonsense that we always hear from conservatives—things like, “At a time when so many families are tightening their belts, [I’m’] going to make sure that the government continues to tighten its own.” Oh, wait: that was Obama. But I’ve never said anything but that Obama is conservative and the point is the same. These reasonable sounding platitudes are just wrong.

Krugman seems to think that Romney is blinded by ideology. He writes:

So where are Romney and his party coming from? Basically, they’ve thrown out 80 years of economic analysis and evidence because it doesn’t fit their ideological preconceptions, and they’re resorting to dubious metaphors—”sugar high” and all that—as a substitute for clear thinking.

I think he’s wrong. Romney isn’t against the Fed helping the economy for ideological reasons; he’s against it because a Democrat is in the White House.

It is a major mistake to think that conservative elites have what we would normally consider an ideology. Their entire organization is dedicated to getting and keeping power. I know that I have sometimes claimed that they are ideologically committed to tax breaks for the rich. But I think I’ve been wrong. They are committed to tax breaks for themselves and their friends. This is just selfishness; it doesn’t rise to the level of an ideology.

We’ve seen this on display in Romney’s response to the attack on our Libyan embassy. The logic is very simple: we’re against it if they are for it. That ain’t no ideology. And I’m surprised that Krugman doesn’t see that.

Afterword

Krugman along with most of the rest of the economics profession is always very careful to show respect for Greg Mankiw and other prominent economists on the Romney team. This is pure in-group politics. The truth is that whatever Mankiw once was, he is simply an apologist now. His response to the Tax Policy Center study (along with two other “respectable” economists and one wingnut) shows this. It isn’t wrong so much as evasive and highly misleading. The same, I fear, can be said for fellow Harvard economist Martin Feldstein. When his analysis of the TPC study found that it was correct, Feldstein simply wrote a deceptive WSJ OpEd where he made it sound like his analysis contradicted the TPC. This is not the kind of intellectual honesty that we should accept from Harvard professors.

Party Better Than iPhone?

iPhoneThis morning’s New York Times column by Paul Krugman discussed a J.P. Morgan research note that said that the release of the new iPhone could stimulate the economy over the next quarter by up to a half of a percent of GDP. Krugman then went on to explain that if you accept this concept that a bunch of people buying iPhones can stimulate the economy, then you are a Keynesian.

On the meta-level, Krugman is really punching below his weight. I think his readers are at the level that this should be obvious, but maybe I am over estimating his audience.

I have a question about the article, however, which I think is important and something we should all think about. I understand that our recession is mostly due to private debt. People are paying down their debts rather than buying stuff, and so fewer people are employed. Further, I understand that the launch of an exciting new product (Not that I really think the fifth version of anything meets this definition.) can get people to spend money that would normally go to their student loans. But I’m not sure how effective this form of stimulus will be.

The main problem is where exactly the money will go. I assume that most of the money for an iPhone gets passed straight through to Apple. This makes me think that most of the money spent on these iPhones will not go to higher wages or more employees. Instead, it will go to the wealthy owners of Apple. Sure, some of this extra wealth will be spent. But most of it will go to increasing the huge pile of money currently looking (mostly in vain) for something good to invest in.

Economics makes my brain hurt. I never know if I’m making sense or not. But it seems to me that the $399 would be better spent (as far as the economy is concerned) by throwing a party.

Afterword

I have read the J. P. Morgan research note and it doesn’t tell me anything that helps. It is possible that what I’m talking about is included in the model. Regardless, I would love it is some economist would straighten me out, but I doubt many of them come around here. Economists are known Don Quixote haters.

Update (16 September 2012 10:21 pm)

Set by a friend:

Monsignor Quixote

Monsignor QuixoteThere is a great deal of moral thought in Graham Greene’s Monsignor Quixote. I just want to finish off my thoughts on this novel, which I discussed in video form a couple of weeks ago.

In modern America, I think of Christians as being selfish conservatives who think the poor are morally inferior. It is nice to remember that this is exactly the opposite of traditional Christian thought. Father Quixote is a man who cares very much about all people. I think this, more than anything else, is why his best friend is the Communist Sancho.

In this first excerpt, Father Quixote is trying to figure out what penance he should give to an undertaker who claims to have stolen handles off the coffin of a beloved priest (although he didn’t really):

Father Quixote wondered what Father Heribert Jone would have written about this case. He would certainly list it among sins against justice, the category to which adultery also belongs, but Father Quixote seemed to remember that in the case of theft the gravity of the sin had to be judged by the value of the object stolen—if it was equivalent to one-seventh of the owner’s monthly wage it must be treated seriously. If the owner were a millionaire there would be no sin at all—at least not against justice. What would Father Gonzalez have earned monthly and indeed was he the true owner if he had only come into possession of the handles after death? A coffin surely belonged only to the earth in which it was laid.

Imagine the good Christian men Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney (yes, Mormonism is a kind of Christianity) would think of this idea about the sin of theft. In our society, the rule seems to be that if you steal from the rich you will get more punishment, not less.

The other excerpt is shockingly beautiful in its compassion, although I think most people will find it repellent. Don Quixote starts this dialog with Sancho:

“There is a popular saint in La Mancha who lost her virginity when she was raped by a Moor in her own kitchen when he was unarmed and she had a kitchen knife in her hand.”

“She wanted to be raped, I suppose.”

“No, no, her thought was quite logical. Her virginity was less important than the salvation of the Moor. By killing him at that moment she was robbing him of any chance of salvation. An absurd and yet, when one thinks of it, a beautiful story.”

Again, this is not the thinking of most people who consider themselves Christians. Yet this saint did just what Jesus supposedly did: she suffered for the sin of the Moor.

Many years ago, I attended a lecture by Kurt Vonnegut. He said that reading was the western version of meditation but that it was better. “When we read, we meditate with the greatest minds of our culture.” I think he was right. And I can’t think of a novel in which this is more true than Monsignor Quixote. I highly recommend meditating for a few hours with Graham Greene, who is certainly one of the greatest minds of our culture.