Politics: 4 November 2010

It’s All About Turn-Out

I used a graph from The Atlantic to get the following statistics (I think they are wrong and greatly under-estimate the issue): people over 65 where 16% of the electorate in 2008 and 23% in 2010; people under 30 were 18% in 2008 and 11% in 2010. And so I used these data to create a model.

I assumed that all people under 30 are Democrats and all people over 65 are Republicans. Further, I assumed (I don’t have a source for this yet, but I’ve heard this number mentioned quite a lot) that the country voted overall 52% for the Republicans. Based upon this, I calculate that 44% of the middle-aged people (30-65) voted Republican. Using this number and the same all (old people) and none (young people) assumption, my calculation estimates that 45.0% of the people should have voted for McCain in the 2008 election. In fact, 45.6% actually voted for McCain in 2008. This implies that no one changed their political leanings. There is a slight indication that the middle-aged people are more liberal than they were in 2008. But actually (with due respect to John Prine), everything is just about the same.

I have all the 2008 data I need to do this calculation right. I don’t yet have the 2010 data. When I get it, I plan to model the hell out of it. However, I’ve modeled it enough to know that there has been no real change in the way people think. It does indicate a big problem. I would like to make it an infraction to not vote. If we can’t get that, then I suggest tying strings to all those young people’s nose rings and dragging them to the polls!

Lead On!

There is a petition to encourage Nancy Pelosi to continue to lead the Democratic Party in the House. I encourage you to sign the petition. You don’t have to write anything; you can just sign. I had to write, of course; I wrote, “There is no question you have done an exceptional job as Speaker of the House. I am more liberal than you, but I respect your positions. What’s most important, however, is that I think you have been a brilliant tactician. What the House accomplished under you is amazing. You are paying for the sins of the Senate. Lead on!” Again: sign the petition.

The Week in Blackness

It is always a good time to listen to Elon James White.

What the Fuck Has Obama Done So Far?

Politics: 3 November 2010

Will says maybe I shouldn’t or couldn’t stop doing this blog, but I think that is just because he was pissed off last night. This may be it. Following politics really does not improve my quality of life.

Half Blue Dogs Out

The house went about as I expected, but worse than I had hoped. On the up side, half of the lame “blue dog” Democratic candidates lost their races. Good riddance! It will be interesting to see what the Republican controlled House will do now. When it came right now to it, all the teabaggers turned out to be the same old social conservatives with a smattering of libertarians. For all of the teabaggers I saw who wanted to protect the individual rights of fetuses, I never heard one talk about protecting the rights of gays or drug users. Interesting, isn’t it.

Michael Bennet Pulling Away?

In Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet seems to be pulling away from Ken Buck with 89% of the votes in. Still, no one is calling the race and there is sure to be a recount. However, recounts usually favor Democrats. Why? I think because poor areas have fewer resources. But don’t quote me on that. In Washington, we still only have 62% of the votes in. Democrat Patty Murray is ahead by 14,005 votes, out of roughly a million and a half. Very disappointing is how poorly Scott McAdams did in Alaska. I really thought he had a good chance of taking that seat. Now we have to hope that Lisa Murkowski manages to beat Joe Miller—even though she isn’t much better. The total write-in vote is 41% compared to Miller’s 34%. The question is how many of those write-in votes will count for Murkowski; there is no doubt that almost all of them were intended for her.

Not Such a Bad Night

In the end, yesterday was not that bad. What is bad is that I am going to have to be listening to people talk about how this is a mandate against Obama’s radical leftist agenda and so on—in other words, just pure nonsense.

Brown and Boxer!

I am very happy that great people like Brown and Boxer will be out there defending me and my rights. Brown beat Whitman by over 13%—almost a million votes! And the Boxer-Fiorina race that was supposed to be close wasn’t: Boxer won by 10%—almost three-quarters of a million votes! You know, when I first saw the acronym GOTV, I thought it was a cable station. Then I learned that it meant, “Get Out The Vote” and I had one of those Emily Litella moments. I did my part: I contacted every liberal I knew and reminded them repeatedly to vote; I also never mentioned the election to conservatives I knew, hoping they would forget. (Yes, I’m not a good person.) Clearly GOTV worked in California!

California Proposition 25

I’m very pleased that Prop 25 won in California—this is probably the most important vote that took place yesterday for anyone who lives here. It stops the small minority of Republicans in the state legislature from being able to block a budget being passed until a few of them can be given some form of political heroin to vote in favor of it.

California Proposition 23

Also important: Prop 23 went down thankfully; it was just a push by oil companies (out of state oil companies!) to effectively repeal our greenhouse gas reduction law. Long-term, this is hugely important: to our environment and to our economy.

California Proposition 20 and 27

Unfortunately, we are going to get the new redistricting law. I’m all for such a law—as long as all other states do it. As it is, it is bad for California on a national level.

California Proposition 19

And, of course, Prop 19 failed: the proposal to legalize marijuana sale and use. I think it was a victory to have it on the ballot. It still would have been illegal federally, so it would still have been illegal—just not if the state cops found it on you. What’s more, pot is still scheduled the same as heroin. Over the past 100 years, drug laws have been systematically federalized (Murder is not a federal crime, but holding a joint is—figure that out!) so any drug reform really has to be done at the federal level. I’m not saying that Prop 19 wouldn’t have made life better for pot smokers, but I’m more interested in a real solution to the problem: people’s private consensual behavior in their homes are felonies. Where are the teabaggers on that clear violation of the Constitution they claim to so love?

E. J. Dionne on Political Demographics

E. J. Dionne makes the excellent point that in the 2008 election 18% of the voters were under 30 and 16% were over 65. In yesterday’s election, roughly 10% were under 30 and 25% were over 65. So any idea that this election was some kind of mandate on Obama or the Democratic Party is just ridiculous. It is interesting; watch it.

It is also interesting that this election was also not a teabagger referendum. Of the official teabagger candidates (roughly 150), most lost (roughly 100). And this makes sense, because just about everywhere, teabagger support is right around one-third. So their candidates won about one-third of the time.

Mexico Fence

Steven King (who will be the head of the next House’s Immigration Committee) wants to build a 13 foot high fence between American and Mexico. I just did a back of the envelope calculation of this. Just the material for the wall (none of the material for holding the wall up and no labor or anything else) would cost about a quarter billion dollars. Just saying.

Politics: 2 November 2010

Let The Circus Begin

I have little to say. It will be a bad day. I have this image in my mind of watching a teabagger reading his portable Constitution. I still don’t understand how people can read the same document over and over and never understand it. Of course, without reading the Federalist Papers it is kind of hard to understand what it is really all about. But it’s kind of long. Anyway, as we know: facts don’t much matter to people who have made up their minds—especially people who have little education. Our country deserves the government it is about to elect. Unfortunately, the majority of the people do not.

Reid Wins!

This is very exciting: Harry Reid won in Nevada—and it looks like it is by a much wider margin than expected. I’m still hopeful for McAdams up in Alaska—but it is really hard to say. Colorado keeps going back and forth; it is currently slightly Buck (Republican), but I’ll keep hoping. Regardless, the Democratic Party keeps control of the Senate. Now they had better get rid of the filibuster, because with it, Rand Paul alone could destroy the world’s economy (this is not joke).

And, of course, we keep hearing how the teabaggers have been so important in this election. This is total bullshit. As we have seen again and again, the teabaggers are just the most conservative Republicans. They aren’t for the Constitution. (They don’t even understand it!) They aren’t for fiscal responsibility. They aren’t against Wall Street. Why do we know this? Because they believe in many things that are flat out against the Constitution; they want to balance the budget at the same time they want to cut taxes without cutting 80% of the federal budget that is Social Security, Medicare, and the military; are they were eager to vote for candidates who were bankrolled by Wall Street. This election had nothing to do with the teabaggers. It had everything to do with the 9.6% unemployment rate.

Talking John Birch Paranoid Blues

I couldn’t find Bob Dylan doing this, but this young man—Rex Noble—does a fine job. I fear we are back to this level of thinking. The question is: where are the beats?

Politics: 1 November 2010

We Will All Go Together When We Go

Kevin O’Rourke discusses the main economic issue facing Ireland—a country that must undergo fiscal austerity. Basically, he says that the only way such policies will be anything but contractionary is if exports grow. However, exports will not grow, because other countries (for example, the United Kingdom and German) are causing their economies to contract for purely ideological reasons. He rightly points out that we can’t look at each country separately; we have to look at them all together. And then there is the comment by ObsessiveMathsFreak (thanks to Paul Krugman for the catch), who makes a compelling case that, “The markets want money for cocaine and prostitutes… Most people don’t realize that ‘the markets’ are in reality 22-27 year old business school graduates, furiously concocting chaotic trading strategies on excel sheets and reporting to bosses perhaps 5 years senior to them.”

The one thing that I just can’t get my head around as I follow politics is why we can’t do right by everyone. I know why people with huge amounts of money want interest rates to stay low, but this is a small fraction of the people in the US, much less in the world. Mostly, people without jobs just want a job, and people with jobs would like to feel secure that they will continue to have jobs. We can continue as we have. I fully suspect that we will continue as we have. But don’t the wealthy see how much they have to lose? Can’t they see that slightly higher taxes are an insurance policy? Can’t they see government policies that would reduce unemployment would make their wealth safer? Don’t they see the possibility of two kinds of revolutions? The first is the old-fashioned revolution where people actually get killed (I will be hiding under my bed in that case). The second is that there will be a true populist uprising (not the fake teabagger populism), and the top income tax rate will be brought back up to 90%—quite democratically.

We are all in this together. I have little to lose regardless of what happens, because I have little. The millionaires and billionaires have a lot to lose. It may not be nuclear war that brings us down, but Tom Lehrer was right: we will all go together when we go.

Andrew Breitbart to Provide Election Analysis for ABC

It seems my expectations of corporate media cannot get low enough. ABC News has hired Andrew Breitbart—master propagandist of the fake ACORN and Shirley Sherrod stories—to provide election analysis tomorrow night. According to Media Matters, David Ford of ABC said, “If Andrew Breitbart says something that is incorrect, we have other voices to call him on it.” Who will call him on it? Ford implies it will be Bill Adair of Politifact. Yeah, right. What are the odds that ABC has hired anyone nearly as liberal as Breitbart is conservative?

Rally to Restore Sanity Crowd Size

I knew that Jon Stewart’s rally would be a good deal bigger than Glenn Beck’s rally. And when I saw it, I thought, “Wow. That looks about as big as MLK’s ‘I Have a Dream’ speech rally.” And that rally had about 200,000 people in attendance. CBS News commissioned the same group to estimate the Stewart rally crowd size as they had for the Beck rally. The number? 215,000 people. Glenn Beck’s number? 87,000. (Of course, Beck always says it was at least 300,000.) In a sense, this is shocking, because Glenn Beck has about twice the nightly audience as Stewart. It could be as simple as the fact that it is easier to go to a rally when you don’t have to use a walker or wheelchair. With all due respect to Beck’s audience, it is old. Also with due respect to Beck’s audience, it is prone to believing ridiculous conspiracy theories. Maybe they didn’t come out because they knew that in the open air even the aluminum foil under their tri-corner hats would not protect them from the government’s secret “liberal rays” making it into their heads. (I don’t see why. Nothing else seems to make it into their heads!)