Winner-Take-All Politics

Winner-Take-All PoliticsIn a lot of discussions of income inequality, people note that the huge rise in inequality over the last 35 years happened in both before and after tax income. Thus, like Estragon in Waiting for Godot, they claim, “Nothing to be done!” Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson in Winner-Take-All Politics discus income inequality entirely from a political standpoint. And this is the right way to look at it.

We already know that money makes money. If you have a bank, it does not take great skill to borrow money from the Fed for nothing and loan it out for more. Similarly, having lots of money is often a prerequisite for investing in the best opportunities. The Facebook IPO was for suckers with their hundreds and thousands of dollars. If you had tens of millions, like Bono, then you could have invested in Facebook a couple years earlier and made a billion.

So the question is how the government makes the rich even richer, so that they will have an even bigger advantage to collect even more. Winner-Take-All Politics describes it like this:

What if the modern economy looks less like an open sea, where rising water lifts all boats, and more like a system of locks, where those who don’t get through the gates are left behind? Yachts are rising, but dinghies are largely staying put, locked out (so to speak) from higher waters. Indeed, in this alternative scenario, there is reason to suspect that the dinghies are staying put in part because the yachts are rising—that the rich are closing the locks behind them to capture resources that would otherwise have enhanced the living standards of everyone else.

The authors talk in great depth about the two powers that balance a democracy: the wealthy trying to enrich themselves and the poor passing laws to redistribute wealth. In general, through its history, the United States oscillated with the waxing and waning of these forces. But over the last 35 years, we have seen our political system tip far toward the wealthy. They note that the decline in union power is most disturbing because unions provide the only real organized counterbalance to the power of rich corporate interests.

They also note that this idea is nothing new:

Since the first stirrings of democracy, virtually all its greatest theorists have recognized this. From Aristotle to Alexis de Tocqueville, from Plato to Thomas Paine, those who have contemplated what makes democracy tick have invariably expressed concern about its coexistence with sizable gaps in economic standing. The Roman priest Plutarch set the tone when he noted, “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics.” Charles de Montesquieu, whose The Spirit of the Laws was a central text for many of our nation’s Founders, identified “real equality” as “the very soul of democracy,” though he conceded that in practice democratic republics could only “fix the differences to a certain point.”

There is too much in this book to discuss. Whenever I read any book, I book dart interesting parts. My copy has over 100 book darts in it. I’m sure I’ll come back to it. In fact, this is not the first time I’ve written about the book. But if nothing else, we should all listen to the broad argument of Winner-Take-All Politics.

The rich have gotten very organized and the poorer classes simply cannot compete. That is, unless we organize. And it is in this way that Hacker and Pierson take a sobering book and pull off an inspiring ending. I’m not much a joiner, but I’ve decided that I need to join Common Cause. At least. And I think all of you should too.

Empathic Captcha Likely as Useless as Regular Ones

Kimber Streams at The Verge has written about, New Captcha system uses empathy to distinguish humans from bots. Instead of a highly distorted set of letters to be parroted back, this captcha asks a question like this:

<%image(20121007-empathycaptcha.jpg|427|251|Empathy Captcha)%>

This is a nice idea. Unfortunately, what I’ve found with any captcha system is that they do no good. The only spam that gets through my automated systems is that which is done by hand. And there is a lot of that!

My understanding is that people get paid ridiculously small amounts of money to spam me—perhaps a penny per spam or less. But no spam gets through. Why do they continue? Even at this cost, it does no good. Shouldn’t they move on to other more fruitful sites?

It isn’t hard to spot spam. Most of it has a user name that is obvious: “adult film” or “liquid diet for weight loss” or “Free Games Directory.” And then, the spam comments are all the same 10 or so canned bits. One of my favorites is this, “hello there and thanks for your info ?” Note the space before the question mark? It is always there.

The one good thing about using a captcha is that it would slow the spammers down a bit. Of course, it also slows down users. I’ll have to think about it.

Insulting Will Cain on Twitter

Will CainI created a Twitter account this last week and I’ve learned quite a lot. Just this morning, I learned that every Twitter address you include in your message gets a copy of your tweet. Last night, after watching Real Time with Bill Maher, I was really annoyed with one of his guests, Will Cain, a conservative from Glenn Beck’s The Blaze.

Right out of the gate, Cain claimed that the counter to charges of racism was that we have a black president. There are so many things wrong with claim, it makes me feel bad just to think about it. On the most basic level, Obama only got roughly half of the vote—that leaves a lot of room for racism. Furthermore, racism takes many forms that are less obvious than the desire to form a lynching party. One of the most compelling arguments for why Obama was so low key at the debate was that he was fighting against the “angry black man” stereotype. I don’t know if that’s true, but this is certainly something that has shaped Obama’s tenure as President.

Anyway, the evening didn’t get better with Mr. Cain. And when the topic changed to global warming, he showed himself to be nothing more than a guy who uses all of his intellect to massage right wing talking points into simulacra of thoughtful arguments. Bill Maher asked him why it was that conservatives in every other country accepted global warming. Cain didn’t even think about it: there is real scientific controversy about global warming. Well, no. In fact, there wasn’t even controversy about it among the public 10 years ago. But the full court press of disinformation from the likes of Will Cain have made vast swaths of Americans think there are major questions or even a conspiracy.

Afterwards, I tweeted:

@billmaher Affirmative action for conservatives: @willcain on Real Time. Stereotypical libertarian nonsense. No surprises. Boring.

I thought this was pretty clear. I’ve been arguing this for a long time. One doesn’t have to be that smart or knowledgeable or creative to be a right wing commentator. My tweet is a specific example of this. If Will Cain were a liberal, he might have risen to the heights of blogger at Daily KOS, but there’s no way that he would be on Real Time. The show wants to book people with different ideas; it would be boring if they all agreed. So the producers have to find conservatives. Unfortunately, the pickings are slim. What are they going to do, invite Pat Robertson? Of course not. Instead, they bring on light weights like Will Cain, who was out debated by Kerry Washington for Christ’s sake!

I did not intend for this tweet to go to Will Cain. I don’t think much of him as a commentator, but I have nothing against him as a person. It isn’t my intent to hurt him—or even appear to. I put in his Twitter address because I’ve seen other people doing this and I’m trying to fit it. (The writing on this site is not that much like my “real” writing, although it is rather a lot like I talk—minus the ums and uhs.) But I don’t think Cain much cared. I’m sure he’s used to be shouted at my liberals. I mean, I’m used to be shouted at by conservatives.

However, Will Cain replied to my tweet:

@CuriousFrankly well which is it?

I have no idea what he’s talking about. He was spouting stereotypical libertarian nonsense. There were no surprises. He was boring. This is a case of affirmative action for conservatives. Everything is consistent. Where’s the problem?

All I can think is that he has a problem with my referring to him as both conservative and libertarian. When I was a libertarian, I hated it when people referred to my beliefs as “conservative.” Then again, I was an unusual libertarian. I came at it from socialist thought. I was aggressively pro-union. I was concerned about government and corporate coercion. But even still, I understood that libertarianism was a form of conservatism. And Cain should too. After all, social conservatives don’t claim they aren’t conservatives.

Anyway, I am sorry for tweeting that message to Will Cain. If people come looking for insults, fine. But sending out unrequested insults is just rude. What’s more, Cain is not boring; he’s just annoying. But then, I’m sure Glenn Beck wouldn’t have it any other way.

Afterword

You might want to follow me on Twitter. The main thing is that new articles here get tweeted out so you will never again miss another brilliant insight into Don Quixote, Lope de Vega, or even stuff that happened this century:

Even more aggravating than Will Cain, the Twitter handle @FranklyCurious is owned by a guy who goes under the name “Surya Sanjiv.” And he could have used @SuryaSanjiv, because it is available. So I used @CuriousFrankly, although in retrospect, I see I should have used @iFranklyCurious. Live and learn.

Update (Immediate)

I just occurred to me that in the fast paced Twitter world, maybe Cain misread “libertarian” as “liberal.” That would make more sense.

Avik Roy: Charlatan

Avik RoyRomney economic adviser Avik Roy was on Up with Chris Hayes today. He pooh-pooh the carried interest loophole, saying, “Carried interests—I can’t remember the exact numbers—but what I think it raises for the government is something like $15 billion dollars or 4 billion—some tiny number that really doesn’t do much…”

I see this all the time from conservatives. If it is something they want to cut, a million bucks wasted can take up a whole day on Fox News. The government lost $500 million on Solyndra, and Fox News and the rest of the right wing echo chamber has been talking about it for a year. But $15 billion or $4 billion (or $2 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal) is nothing.

Let’s think about this. Romney can’t be bothered to state a position on the carried interest loophole. It’s just too small. But he can be bothered to state that he wants to stop funding PBS. And how much will that save? The total federal spending on PBS was less than $450 million last year, or less than one-quarter the size of the “tiny” carried interest loophole (using the smaller WSJ number).

Everyone understands that this is what we get from Romney. He is the prototypical politician: slippery with them facts. But Avik Roy is supposedly a serious guy. He is supposed to make the best case for Romney, but not distort the facts. Yet this is exactly what I expect from people like Roy. Let me say it again: the center of gravity of politics in the United States has moved so far right that no reasonable person can continue to be Republican. So Chris Hayes can pretend that Roy is an honest and serious guy, but he isn’t. He is just another conservative freak who happens to be good at lying with numbers.

Reed Richardson and the Name Anchor

Reed F. Richardson - Artist's RenderingEvery Friday, rain or shine, Eric Alterman makes a post on his blog at The Nation magazine. It has three parts. First, he links to the articles he has published that week. Sometimes, this means there is no part one. Second, he talks about the music and theater he’s seen that week. I call this his “Yes, as a matter of fact, my life is a hell of a lot better than yours” feature. One time, he wrote about a 20 minute conversation he had with Bruce Springsteen, which I thought was adding insult to an already debilitating injury. And the third is, “Now Heeere’s Reed!” This is the part where Reed F. Richardson writes a column.

Why doesn’t Reed have his own blog? I don’t know. Reed is a mysterious person. (See “Artists Rendering” on the left.) But through a few email correspondences and a close reading of his and Eric’s columns, I have developed a theory. Reed was once an intern at The Nation (fact). He worked closely with Eric Alterman (conjecture). Eric doesn’t have a lot of people he likes there (conjecture) because he is very vocal about what fucktards most liberals are (fact). Reed became Eric’s protege (conjecture).

I’ve been reading Eric Alterman for years. He is a great writer with lots of insights and a clear view of the way the world works. I think I’ve read all of his books. In fact, a couple of weeks ago, I read What Liberal Media? again. As a result of this, I more look forward to Reed’s column each week than I do Eric’s. This isn’t because Reed is necessarily better, but he is much more likely to have a take on something that is different than my own; I’ve so internalized Eric Alterman’s work that I usually know what his take will be. (But not always!)

From time to time, I want to directly link to Reed’s column. Unfortunately, this has been impossible, given that it was just tacked on to the end of Eric’s blog entry. And it was even worse, because Eric’s blog uses a “fold” where you have to click to see more (thankfully not true pagination). This meant that Reed’s articles didn’t even so up when linking to the base blog.

You know me: I am a persistent pedant. I looked at the source of Alterman’s blog to see if perhaps there was a name anchor hidden there. These are the things that I commonly use for footnotes; they are links that allow you to skip down the page.[1] This is very easy to do, and I recommend it to bloggers, many of whom have this annoying habit of using an asterisk with no link. Do this:

Link: <a href=”#linkname”&gt[1]</a>

Footnote: <a name=”linkname”&gt[1]</a>

Note that # character is in the link, but not the footnote!

Anyway, back to the story. Eric Alterman’s blog had no name anchor for Reed’s column. So I wrote to Reed and asked him about adding a name anchor to the blog posts. I knew that Reed was an editor of some kind and so he might be a bit of a pedant. I still don’t know, but he cared enough to asked his editor. And to my surprise, the editor thought it would be a good thing for their interns to learn. And two weeks later, inside the Alterman blog post is:

<a name=”NowHeresReed”>Now here’s Reed:</a>

What I particularly like about this is that it is simple. A lot of blogs that use name anchors make them stupidly complex. Our life is frittered away by detail. Simplify, simplify, simplify!

This week, Reed has a column about Jim Lehrer’s terrible debate moderating and what it says about political reporting generally. It is well worth reading. In fact, I highly recommend reading him every week. And if you do, perhaps he can start being paid. Eric Alterman is a slave driver (conjecture).


[1] Like this!

I Miss Reagan: Obama 2012!

Dave Weigel made a funny about having found Andrew Sullivan’s car. But you don’t have know that Sullivan is one of that growing group of conservatives who are starting to wake up to the fact that the Republican Party is nuts. This picture paints about 10 Sullivan columns. Or David Frum:

<%image(20121006-imissreagan.jpg|450|336|I Miss Reagan - Smart Republican)%>

Employment Has Improved Over Last Year and a Half

Paul KrugmanPaul Krugman has a really interesting article this morning where he presents a new formulation for reporting unemployment. As everyone should know, the unemployment rate is deceptive because it only counts people who are actively looking for work. As a result, a lot of people prefer the employment to population ratio. This number has gotten a lot of attention by Republicans ever since a Democrat has been in the White House.

Krugman points out that this is a useful statistic but it skews the numbers toward the older population because our country is getting older. His idea is to divide the population into three parts: 16-24, 25-54, and 55 and older. Then he weights these groups and comes up with the the graph below. In effect, he’s removed the bias of an aging population that should be working less.

<%image(20121006-emppopratio.jpg|450|284|Employment to Population - Krugman Weighted - Plus Normal added by FC)%>

I added the red dots. These are the values taken from the standard employment-to-population ratio graph. You’ve probably seen this graph before, and if you click over to Krugman’s article, you can see the graph itself. The thing that is disturbing about it is that there seems to be no (or very little) change after the 2008 recession.

But by weighting these three age groups, it is clear that over the last year and a half, we’ve seen steady, if frustratingly slow, job grown. This is what my intuition tells me. It is also what this month’s BLS data tell me. And what it should tell all of us. Jack Welch included.

Thank God It’s Friday

Save Big BirdI’ve had a thought all night long. I don’t claim that it is original. In fact, it seems kind of obvious. Romney supposedly won the debate. And yet the only really memorable line from the debate is a clear blunder, and it was by Mitt Romney. Obama didn’t have a bad performance so much as he had a boring performance. My initial reaction to Romney’s performance was that it was too aggressive and that he repeated the same talking points over and over. In fact, he said “$716 billion” five times! What’s more, his low level of disfluencies made me think that he was just spouting memorized lines—as he likely was.

I’m sure that his attack on PBS was similarly scripted. It’s pretty obvious, they knew Jim Lehrer was the moderator. But I think adding “Big Bird” may have been an ad lib. Or maybe his campaign made a mistake. I know I wouldn’t have flagged it as something that would go viral. I would have argued that whether people admitted it or not, they wanted to take a poke at Big Bird and would be delighted to see Romney do it.

Just like “You’re no Jack Kennedy” in 1982, the only thing people seem to remember about this most recent debate is that Romney wants to kill Big Bird. After all the grief that Obama and company got Wednesday night and Thursday, they’ve got to have been thanking God for Friday.

Mitt’s Excuse for Killing Big Bird is Wrong

GroverFirst things first: I don’t like Big Bird. I never have. Nor am I fond of those metrosexual cohabitors Burt and Ernie. But that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t fight for Sesame Street. If only for the sake of Grover, we must protect Sesame Street.

Romney’s comment about Sesame Street roiled me, but not about ending funding for PBS. Let’s be clear: all conservatives want to end funding of this kind. If a TV show isn’t interrupted every 10 minutes so that corporations can sell stuff, what is the point? Am I right?!

But Romney said more than that. Here is the full quote:

I’m sorry, Jim, I’m going to stop the subsidy to PBS. I’m going to stop other things. I like PBS, I love Big Bird. Actually like you, too. But I’m not going to—I’m not going to keep on spending money on things to borrow money from China to pay for.

Alas.

As I’ve discussed before, We Are Our Own Investors. If our government debt is owned to any monolithic creature, it is the American People. China owns roughly 7.5% of our debt. Total foreign debt ownership is roughly a third—half what we Americans own. So this is a non-issue. What’s more, it is a fact that Mitt Romney surely knows; his statement is demagoguery plain and simple.

What’s more, the implication of this claim is that by China holding government debt, they control us. If they decide to get stop buying our debt it will cause our economy to collapse. China is—according to those who make this claim—propping up the value of the dollar. The exact opposite is the truth. As Dean Baker has pointed out, the reason China owns as much of our debt as they do is because they peg their currency artificially low compared to the dollar. Mitt Romney might have heard about this since he’s always talking about it with regards to manufacturing. Another aspect of this is that China can buy our bonds for less than they are worth.

That is why China owns 7.5% of our government debt. But regardless of this, 7.5% is not all or most or even a lot.

If Mitt Romney wants to kill Big Bird (and I wouldn’t complain), he needs to come up with a better reason than China.

Update (5 October 2012 2:28 pm)

Krugman’s Wrong: Obama Did Fight Back

Paul KrugmanPaul Krugman has a good article on Mitt Romney’s biggest lie of Wednesday night’s debate, Romney’s Sick Joke. He points out the usual stuff: Romney’s “plan” is to simply go back to what we had before—unemployed people who can afford the outrageous COBRA fees can keep their coverage.

He also added a few points that have not been so well reported. One is that the number of jobs that provide healthcare has been declining over the last decade. He also noted that the Romney campaign’s assertion that states could come to the rescue by guaranteeing coverage was nonsense. He write, “Mr. Romney wants to eliminate restrictions on interstate insurance sales, depriving states of regulatory power.” And, “If all you do is require that insurance companies cover everyone, healthy people will wait until they’re sick to sign up, leading to sky-high premiums.”

However, I think that Krugman makes a mistake that pretty much everyone is making: Obama did punch back on this point. Krugman writes:

One could wish that Mr. Obama had made this point effectively in the debate. He had every right to jump up and say, “There you go again”: Not only was Mr. Romney’s claim fundamentally dishonest, it has already been extensively debunked, and the Romney campaign itself has admitted that it’s false.

As I wrote in Romney Campaign Walks Back “Moderation,” Obama countered Romney on this exact point. And he did it quite forcefully. This makes Romney’s lie all that much worse because he doubled down on it during the debate only to have his campaign walk it back afterward.

When it comes to the debate, Obama can’t catch a break. Even when he did fight back, he gets no credit. And this is true even of good liberal commentators like Paul Krugman.

George Will: Protector of Brainless Babies

George WillFrankly Curious’ favorite economist, Dean Baker, takes a bite out of conservative affirmative action case George Will. Following the presidential debate, Will is screaming, “Healthcare rationing!” This isn’t even a canard; it’s a lie. There is no way that George Will is this stupid or ignorant.

As we know from economics, or even arithmetic, all things are rationed. A private insurance company rations healthcare. And even more to the point, healthcare is really rationed for the 50 million people without insurance. But Will doesn’t care about those people. No. He’s out there making sure that we provide healthcare to babies born without brains, because those are the people who are the real victims of our broken healthcare system. This is typical of conservatives, of course: they are always more worried about unborn children than born children. I think it’s because they don’t much like actual people.

I should be clear: George Will does not use the “brainless baby” as an example. No one does. But when Oregon decided that they were going to prioritize healthcare, last on the list of procedures to spend money on was keeping babies born without brains alive. The point is that there are limited resources and I am proud to admit that I think those resources are better used on, say, heart surgeries and insulin prescriptions. (Note: only three children with anencephaly have ever lived any length of time even with medical care. By far the longest is three and a half years.)

After Wednesday’s debate, I had a conversation with a conservative who was surprised when I explained that the ACA was just like the laws that say you have to have auto insurance to drive. This conservative thought this was a good idea. (He should! It’s a conservative idea!) He explained that he thought the ACA was a government takeover of healthcare. Now why would he think that? Perhaps because people like George Will are constantly implying this?

No one is stopping the rich from getting any healthcare they can afford—just like now. So what are conservative upset about? Chick Deney will continue to get spare body parts so the rest of us will have to put up with him until his cells won’t regenerate at 124 years old (and who knows, they may come up with something for that too). But no, George Will screams, “Rationing!”

Dean Baker explains:

George Will then trumpets this as rationing of health care. Of course under this system, anyone will be able to get whatever health care they want, they will just have to pay for it out of their own pocket. The fact that Will now calls this situation “rationing” of care shows the state of modern conservatism.

Btw, [this is] the same situation under all the plans put forward by Governor Romney and Representative Ryan. There is no insurance company that covers all care. So insurers will decide which procedures they want to pay for. Furthermore, unlike Medicare, there will be no elected representatives who can overturn their decisions. They can also change coverage on people unexpectedly—that is unless pointy headed bureaucrats in Washington stand in their way.

George Will: freedom fighter.