Diffracting Rosalind Franklin

Rosalind FranklinOn this day in 1920, the great British physical chemist Rosalind Franklin was born. If you haven’t heard of her, it is simply because she’s a woman. Really. The sexism against her was unbelievable. Although Francis Crick said that her X-ray diffraction work was critical to his Nobel Prize winning discovery of the structure of DNA, the Nobel committee didn’t even mention her. What’s more, Crick’s partner Watson made repeated attacks on her as a scientist and generally minimized her contributions to the science—after she had died, of course.

Born to an extremely influential Jewish family in Britain, she showed academic greatness at an early age. Then she went to Cambridge where she received Second Class Honors. She did not receive a Bachelor’s degree, because at that time, Cambridge didn’t give them to women. It did allow her to go on and do more advanced work. She eventually got her PhD for work on the physical chemistry (especially porosity) of coal. This was during World War II, and the work had special military applications like coal’s use in gas masks. What’s perhaps most interesting about this, is that it had nothing much to do with her later work.

After the war, she got a job working with X-ray crystallographer Jacques Mering in France. She applied the new techniques to coal and published a number of significant papers. But the main thing was that she became an expert in the use of X-ray diffraction on complex organic compounds. So in 1951, she was brought to King’s College London where she started her work on the structure of DNA. Also working there was Maurice Wilkins, who would go on to share the Nobel Prize with Watson and Crick. Wilkins and Franklin did not get along, partly because of the usual academic politics, but also because they were such different people.

I wish that I could explain to you the work these people were doing. Sadly, I can’t. To begin with, organic chemistry is still very much a mystery to me. And embarrassingly, even though I’ve done some work with X-ray crystallography, I never really understood it. Basically, you bombard an object with X-rays and look at how the object changes the X-rays’ directions. This allows you to infer the structure of the object. But really, stuff like this has always felt very much like black magic to me. So I have a great respect (and awe) for those who pioneered the work.

But about that sexism. The truth is that by all accounts, Franklin was a difficult person. But this is hardly unusual. I’ve met more than my fair share of great scientists and as a group they are arrogant and impatient—generally not the kind of people you want at cocktail parties. But had Franklin been a man, everyone would have just accepted this. But she was a woman and as a result, she wasn’t seen as just another difficult genius, but someone with “problems.” And in addition to everything else, Watson minimized her work. Still, had she lived, even Watson admitted that she should have shared the Nobel Prize with the three men.

Unfortunately, at the age of 35, she was diagnosed with Ovarian cancer. She got treatment for it and continued to work right up to two weeks before her death at the age of 37. At that point, she was working on the polio virus. She did an amazing amount of outstanding work in her short lifetime.

Happy birthday Rosalind Franklin!

The Extinct Pride of California

California State FlagA fairly common thing for college students to do is to write parody lyrics to the fight song of a rival. Just such a thing was done by some creative student or students at Stanford University with the Berkeley fight song. It goes:

That poor old Golden Bear
It’s losing all its hair
It’s teeth are out
It’s got the gout
It don’t know what it’s all about!

If only it were doing that well!

The bear in question is the California Grizzly (Brown) Bear , which is also known as the California Golden Bear. It is the mascot of the University of California, Berkeley. But it is also the symbol for the whole state. It is on our state flag, and was on the California flag even before it became a state in 1850. But within 75 years of statehood, the subspecies had been hunted to extinction. A lot of that was understandable: the bear was very dangerous to humans and their farming operations. It was also a food supply. But much of it wasn’t understandable, as in the once popular sport of grizzly bear versus bull fights. (Sadly, I’m sure there are many Californians who would enjoy watching such events today.)

The California Black Bear, on the other hand is doing just fine. But it is a much more adaptable animal. It is also a small bear. The largest California grizzly bears weigh well over a ton—arguably the largest of the brown bear species. Typically the California Black Bear weights one-tenth that. And the largest black bear of any subspecies ever was barely one-third the size of the largest California Grizzlies.

I’m not suggesting that the size of an animal is that big a deal. I’m rather fond of those cocky little smooth-coated otters myself. But clearly, we Californians put the California Grizzly Bear on our flag because it was big and strong. And then we proceeded to hunt it to extinction. I think we should add one of those red circles with a line through it to our flag.

New California State Flag

Truth in advertising.

New Blood Pressure Guidelines

Blood PressureI have some medical news and it’s less than a year old! The Cleveland Clinic reported, New High Blood Pressure Treatment Guidelines. This is a big deal to me. I don’t suffer from high blood pressure, but I do suffer rather badly from high blood pressure hypochondria. It isn’t about dying really. I don’t mind dying so much, although I do think I’m deserving of another 25 years. At that point, my shelf-life will certainly have expired. But one thing is for certain: I don’t want to die of a heart attack.

The problem is that I spend the vast majority of my waking hours typing at a keyboard. And I have started to suffer from some minor carpal tunnel syndrome in my left arm and hand. It is basically just some numbness. And what is numbness of the left arm the first sign of? A heart attack! Yes, I know what you’re thinking, “Since you know it is just carpal tunnel and heart attacks are more about the upper arm and shoulder, shouldn’t you just calm down?” And the polite answer to that is, “No!” The not so polite answer to that is, “How dare you insult my hypochondria!”

There is a very real problem with the traditional blood pressure charts. They tell you that the perfect blood pressure is 120/80. But then they say that pre-hypertension is a systolic value of 120-139 or a diastolic of 80-89. So basically, you are being told, “You blood pressure is perfect; and its in the range where we start to get worried.” Of course, your blood pressure could be too low as well. Hypotension is defined as a blood pressure below 90/60. The ultimate hypotension is 0/0 where you’re dead.

In addition to the mathematical problems with the pre-hypertension, I find this offensive because when I was skinny, which was 45 years of my life, my blood pressure was always around 90/60, and no one ever said anything, except that one time I almost died and it was 60/40. Since I got pudgy about five years ago, my blood pressure has gone up. Today, it seems to be about 111/75. But depending upon when I take it and how much caffeine I’ve been drinking, it can easily get into that pre-hypertension area. And this concerns me because, as I said: (1) I deserve 25 more years; and (2) I don’t want to die of a heart attack.

Well, the big news about the new guidelines is that they’ve gotten rid of the whole idea of pre-hypertension. It doesn’t say why, but I suspect that there is a picture of me in some scientific paper with a caption that reads, “This guy is the perfect example of why we need to get rid of pre-hypertension.” I obsess about it and that can’t be good for my blood pressure or any other part of my body functioning. If I had actual hypertension, then it could be treated. But the idea that I kinda, sorta have a condition that some day might be something that we might want to think about treating is enough to bring on a heart attack!

The new guidelines also get rid of the old rigid standards for hypertension. They are more nuanced and especially take into account the age of the patient. I’m not quite sure what the issue is here, other than that people’s blood pressure does tend to go up as they get older. But I suspect a lot of it is an effort to stop over-treating people with medications that may do more harm than good.

But the heart rate guidelines are still the same as always: 60 to 100 beats per minute, unless you are an athlete, who can have heart rates that are as low as 40. In this regard, my heart rate has always been high: around 90. I could probably bring that down if I got a little more exercise. It probably wouldn’t hurt regarding that carpal tunnel either.

Soon-to-Be More Knowledgeable

Ignorance is the Key to KnowledgeI was thinking about a little bit of conservative polemics that I noticed during the 2012 election, although surely it is older than that. It goes something like this: Americans don’t see themselves as rich and poor; they see themselves as rich and soon-to-be rich. Now this is nonsense as politics go. Of course it isn’t true. Most poor people are just trying to get by; they don’t even have fantasies about being rich, unless it involves the state lottery. But even as an aspirational claim (We want poor Americans to think of themselves as the soon-to-be rich!) it doesn’t work. Most people don’t want to be rich. Most people want to become something and while that usually does involve making more money, it rarely involves being rich.

But last night, I was thinking about this bit of polemics in terms of education. My first wife was extremely intelligent and well read. But she was hopeless in college because she was not will to, as she would put it, “look stupid.” She was younger than I and basically just starting as a physics undergraduate when I was in graduate school. But try as I may, I could never convince her that it was fine to look stupid and ignorant and lots more. That is what school is about. In fact, if I were talking to her today, I would tell her that that is what life itself is about.

My wife is sadly not a rare specimen. I see it especially among men who, when younger, were always the smartest kid in class. But somewhere along the line, they stagnate because they think they have a reputation to uphold. They are wrong, of course. People don’t think of me as knowledgeable because I know everything about everything. The truth is that far greater minds than my own couldn’t know more than a small fraction of everything we as a species know. So admitting ignorance does not make one “look stupid.” Well, I suppose he might look stupid if Paul Krugman got up in front of a class and told them that “demand” was the function showing how much of a product suppliers would be willing to supply at a given price.

There is a terrible irony here that a person’s desire to be perceived as knowledgeable leads to them being less knowledgeable than they would be if they didn’t worry about it. So I have an idea that I fully admit that I’m stealing from the Republicans. “People aren’t knowledgeable or ignorant; they are knowledgeable or soon-to-be knowledgeable.” Although the truth is, I’m not even quite happy with that. Because I’m a pretty knowledgeable person, but I don’t think there isn’t a person on the earth who doesn’t have concrete information to give to me. (Well, barring babies and people in vegetative states.) So maybe it is better to say, “People aren’t knowledgeable or ignorant; they are all soon-to-be more knowledgeable.”

One of the most annoying things people say to me is, “I’m not that smart.” It’s also heartbreaking. I always wonder who told them that. I also imagine a lot of people were given tests when they were younger. When I was in school, starting 45 years ago, I remember being tested all the time. We test even more now. But I was always thrown into the advanced math classes and the slow English classes. But I was blessed and cursed with a rebel’s soul, and now I figure I know more about literature and writing than 99% of the all of the teachers in all the pre-college schools I went to (and I went to a lot). Because it doesn’t really matter how smart you are (and I don’t even really know what “smart” means anymore). And it doesn’t matter how much talent you have. If you love learning—and I think we all do naturally—you are soon-to-be even more knowledgeable.

Never fear, let your love make you brave: your ignorance will soon make you more knowledgeable!

Humans, Swallows Equally Delusional

SwallowI gotta get this off my desk. For a month, I’ve wanted to talk about this amazing video, Swallows Suss Out Motion Detectors, Learn to Open Doors. Some college campus added motion detector doors to their “Campus Bike Centre.” There were swallows who nested in there, but they still needed to get in and out. Almost immediately, they learned how to activate the doors. In the video below, you will see them. They fly past the detector and then do small circles until the doors (which are slow) open.

What bugs me about this is that a lot of scientists say, “Oh, this is just stimulus and response. They aren’t necessarily learning the way humans do.” I used to accept this kind of thinking. You hear the same thing about Koko, the sign language using gorilla. It sounds Very Serious to make such pronouncements, “We can’t know that they are really doing what we are!” But then two things occurred to me.

First, this is an anti-evolutionary idea. It is the idea that somehow humans aren’t just yet another great ape that has a large brain and an over-sized frontal lobe. This is just a dressed up version of what you read in the Bronze Age Bible. Yes, we are so different from other animals. But if you accept evolution, you can’t think there is some kind of quantum leap between us and swallows, much less us and gorillas.

The ThinkerSecond, this is a weird form of solipsism. The normal kind is where we can’t know if anything outside of yourself exists. But this form is that we can’t know what’s going on in a bird’s brain. Well, that’s true. But I also can’t know what is going on in other humans’ brains. Maybe they actually think like I do, or maybe it’s just stimulus-response. Maybe other humans seem to think like I do, but they are really more like alligators without as many teeth. Who can say?

The truth is, we can’t say for certain. And as Bertrand Russell noted, we can’t say for sure that there isn’t a teapot orbiting the sun between the earth and Mars. We have to take some things on faith, like the idea that there is an external reality. But I tend to think things are actually the opposite of what I’ve been arguing. Swallows opening doors is just stimulus-response. And so was Rodin’s actions when he was carving the first version of The Thinker. I’m more than willing to believe that. But there is something in the wiring of brains that tricks us into thinking that we are actually, you know, thinking. And I don’t see any reason to “think” that swallows don’t suffer from the very same delusions.


See also: Monkeys Do Math as Expected.

Game Master Stewart Culin

Stewart CulinOn this day in 1858, the great American ethnographer Stewart Culin was born. Ethnography is the study of cultures from the outside. I have long had a great interest in ethnomusicology, especially as it relates to the music in America. Mack McCormick’s work in the south, for example, found amazing differences just a couple of miles away; for example, in one town everyone played the banjo, but in another close by town, no one did. Culin spent most of his life looking at the games played by various groups, although later in his life he became interested in dress.

He was completely self-taught. It reminds me of a line from the movie Quiz Show where a student asks Mark Van Doren what he is supported to learn from Don Quixote, and the professor responds, “It means: if you want to be a knight, act like a knight.” People waste whole lives waiting for permission to do things. That’s what higher eduction is all about—especially the PhD. More than showing that you’re learned, it is about showing that you are one of the guys.

I was thinking about that last night as I was researching, Inequality Has Been Rising Steadily for 50 Years. The work was relatively simple and I made simplifying assumptions. But I know exactly how to do it as well as any PhD economist. It’s just that it would have taken a lot more time, and I’m not that interested. I got the results I wanted. Now it just so happens that I have a PhD and in a field that is kind of related to economics—physicists and economists are generally bound by their love of differential equations. But the truth is that anyone with a basic understanding of mathematics and an interest could do the same work.

And that was the case with Stewart Culin: he was smart and he was interested. And he managed do an amazing amount of work. He became involved in several ethnographic groups in his twenties. That’s one of the great things about that period of time. There was no television or radio, so people started groups with others of similar interests. It was the great age of the amateur. Now it is the great age of the conspiracy theorist. In this way, we have certainly slipped. But Culin rather quickly became a professional: first as the Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Museum of Archaeology and Paleontology and then as the curator of Ethnology at the Institute of Arts and Sciences of the Brooklyn Museum.

His major work was Games of the North American Indians, a 900 page tome that divided the games into those of chance and those of skill. He did much the same with various other cultures, including those in Africa and especially Asia. Although he continued to study ethnic games all his life, he branched out into decorative art, furniture, and fashion. He seems to have worked pretty much to the end, when he died at the age of 70 in 1929.

Happy birthday Stewart Culin!

Brilliant and Strange Arthur Evans

Arthur EvansOn this day in 1851, the great archaeologist Arthur Evans was born. What I find fascinating about Evans is that he was an incredibly important scientist, and yet he was totally wrong in his central idea that the Minoan civilization was distinct from the Bronze Age Greeks who he thought were just a backwater. But that take on his career is undoubtedly colored by my love of the Iliad and my admittedly childish wish that it be true. But Evans really blasted Heinrich Schliemann’s idea that the Trojan War had taken place, and during Evans’ lifetime, it was generally thought that the war was a myth. Now the evidence is overwhelming that it was not—it was a real thing.

Of course, that was just one thing and he was hugely important, especially his excavation of Knossos. And he was the guy who first discovered early Bronze Age Greek writing. Of course, he was absolutely certain that it is was not Greek. And then right after he died, the linguist Alice Kober noticed that the language seemed to have the some words with different endings. This indicated that the language had inflections. For example: call, called, calling. This indicated that although the writing had more the look of Egyptian, it acted more like Greek or Latin. This clue led the brilliant young self-taught amateur linguist Michael Ventris to make some brilliant educated guesses, which eventually led to his discovery that the Minoans spoke Greek—or at least a very early form of Greek. (Ventris died in an auto accident at the age of 34, a couple of weeks before the official publication of this work, but by that time everyone in the field knew.)

All of this perhaps makes Evans seem less than a brilliant scholar. That is wrong. As for the writing, I think the man can be forgiven. Here is a little Linear B. It looks nothing like Greek to me. And I understanding the issue in translating is not really the look of the text, but this was a difficult problem that many great minds worked on with little success for 65 years.

Linear B

More important, Evans excavation of Knossos is arguably the greatest of any settlement ever. I’m especially interested in his work on the Neolithic settlements. It seems that around 9,000 years ago, a group of people arrived in Crete, most likely from the sea. Of course, Evans wasn’t really interested in the Neolithic settlements. His great interest was the palace that was first constructed around 4,000 years ago. I think I have a greater interest in the earlier periods because of the relative egalitarianism of it. It seems that as humans have advanced, they have used technology more and more to separate themselves. The rich were further above the poor 4,000 years ago than 9,000 years ago because they could be, not because they were better. This is a problem that haunts us more today than ever, and one I’m afraid that we must solve or will eventually destroy us.

Evans was also a curious fellow. He not only excavated the palace at Knossos; he restored parts of it as you can see in the following picture. I still don’t really get it. I guess it gives visitors a better idea of what it was like 3,000 years ago. But I doubt that’s why Evans did it. And that blue on the wall? I don’t think that flies. Homer lived a thousand years after the palace was abandoned, and he didn’t seem to know the color blue. Blue is a hard color to make, and only showed up much later. But what the hell?

Knossos Palace

Happy birthday Arthur Evans!

The Great Housefly Massacre

House Fly Drenched in Water VaporHere in Northern California, it has been very hot the last couple of weeks. And with the heat has come the houseflies. Normally, I don’t notice them and I don’t really care. As long as there is not one buzzing past me and distracting me, what’s the big deal? But yesterday, I came into the kitchen and behind the blinds on the front window were a group of at least a dozen flies. I grabbed the fly swatter and went on a killing spree. It was terrible. It was like if the United States went to war with with Ghana.

I’m not proud of this. In fact, I feel very bad. The flies weren’t doing anything. They weren’t bugging me. They were just hanging out. But I don’t like flies. When seen outside, they are usually standing on a pile of dog feces, enjoying a banquet. I know: it’s the circle of life and every creature is special. But I can’t help but think that every time they land on me, they they are tracking feces all over me.

And this isn’t just some kind of germophobic fantasy of mine. Houseflies are known to transmit over a hundred diseases, including tuberculosis and cholera. And it isn’t as though we don’t have enough of them. They are everywhere. We now have confirmation that they’ve made it to Antarctica. So there is no reason to morn for the houseflies I destroyed yesterday.

Just the same: why? I mean, what’s the big deal? They were out of the way. There were none flying around my head. In fact, I had to lift the blinds to get at them. And it always makes me think that if some advanced civilization discovered earth, they would probably kill all of us humans with as little regard. And I could hardly blame them, because we are far more annoying than houseflies.

And then I think of the Jains and how they won’t even hurt a root vegetable. Meanwhile, I can’t live in peace with a dozen houseflies living in my window seal. What kind of a monster am I?!

Programmable Computers and Konrad Zuse

Konrad ZuseIt’s quite a day for birthdays, as you can see from last year’s post, The Private Life of Billy Wilder. In particular, three women are retiring today: Meryl Streep, Lindsay Wagner, and Elizabeth Warren. But none of the people really inspired me. And talking about Freddie Prinze (who died at just 22) is too depressing.

On this day in 1910, Konrad Zuse was born. “Who?” you ask? He invented the first programmable computer. Up to that time, people built computers but they did whatever they were hardwired to do. His first attempt was the Z1 computer that he built in his parents’ apartment. It was programmable, reading instructions off “perforated 35 mm film.” I find that amazing. It was made of 30,000 parts and never really worked properly because of mechanical imprecision. As a result, it isn’t generally considered the first programmable computer, but it really ought to be.

Unfortunately, the original computer and the blueprints were all destroyed during a bombing mission in 1944. Toward the end of his life, along with three others and at a cost a half million dollars, he recreated the Z1 as you can see here:

Z1

He improved upon the initial computer, creating the Z2, which was based on telephone relays. It took up several rooms of his parents apartment. It is generally the Z3, however, that is considered the first programmable computer. According to Wikipedia, “The Z3 was a binary 22-bit floating point calculator featuring programmability with loops but without conditional jumps.” It was the first of his work to get actual government support—from the Nazis, but what was the guy supposed to do?

Perhaps as important as his hardware work, Zuse realized that coding in machine language was not going to work, so he designed the first ever high level language, Plankalkul (“plan calculus). It was not implemented in his lifetime. It looks kind of like the original Matlab code. But it is the idea that is critical.

After the war, he went into business making better and better computers. He was the first man to sell a working computer (another was sold before his but never really worked). His Z22 computer was the first to use magnetic storage. I don’t think he was much of a business manager, however. His company was sold to Siemens in 1967. I’m sure he was well placed financially, but as is typical, it is not the true pioneers who are rewarded the greatest. This is why the conservative movement fetishizes people who are large scale producers of commodities but not really the people who invented them.

Zuse died in 1995 at the age of 85. So he got to see the full extent of where his work had led. But by that time, he was retired and spending most of his time painting.

Happy birthday Konrad Zuse!

More Republican Delay on Global Warming

Climate Change Is a HoaxHere’s a question for you, what has saved more lives: condoms or new AIDS drugs? That’s a rhetorical question unless you are a complete idiot. As the saying goes: an ounce of prevention is worth of pound of cure. But I think the weights are off. It ought to be more like, “A gram of prevention is worth a metric ton of cure.” And so it is with global warming. This morning, Jonathan Chait wrote, Best New Republican Climate Ideas Still Pretty Bad.

The article is about how various conservative writers are pushing the idea that we don’t need to do anything to stop or slow carbon emissions. Technology will save us! What I find most amusing about this is that this is not a new idea. Conservatives always say that technology will save us. We never have to do anything because technology will save us. But then a hundred people die in one night in London because of the air pollution, and the people decide that maybe they can’t wait for the miracle cure that technology will bring some day.

This idea is even stupider in its current incarnation. These reformicons want the government to invest money into creating the technology. But as Chait pointed out, the government already has such a program. It’s called: the Advanced Research Projects—Energy. It was created back in 2009 as part of the stimulus, and since that time, Republicans in Congress have been trying to kill it.

But are you ready for the even stupider than even stupider? One of the big ideas behind taxing carbon was that it would spur on technological innovation in green energy. That’s why “cap and trade” used to be the favored policy response to global warming. Remember just six years ago when John McCain was running for president? He was in favor of this plan. Of course, he was also in favor of the free market approach to healthcare reform we now call Obamacare. But no more! As soon as a Democrat accepts a Republican policy, it because, “Socialism! Socialism I tell you!”

Liberals are not against technological solutions to global warming. But the truth is that conservatives are. All the reformicons are doing is what conservatives always do about everything: they delay. This is just another delaying tactic. But this time it comes with the hilarious addition that the government is already doing what they claim we absolutely must do. Meanwhile, the problem of global warming gets worse and worse with every instant we don’t reduce our carbon emissions.

Cato Sucks but PERC Does Good Work

Cato InstituteSomething I really hate is when a website allows you to write a comment with paragraph breaks, but when it’s published, everything gets pushed together in one long paragraph. Such is the case with Google when you do reviews of websites. You can do that when you search for a big website on Google. You can’t, for example, search for “Frankly Curious” and get the option to write a review. But the Cato Institute is very big and so when I did a search on them, there were reviews so I thought I would add my own thoughts. After all, I used to be a big fan of Cato. Since then, two things have happened: my thinking has evolved and their thinking has devolved.

So here is my review:

Cato does some fine work—notably on the drug war and the patent system. Cato also does some terrible hack work. But the main thing is that they have been very candid that they will bury any research they do that does not point to a libertarian solution. This is simply intellectually unethical. Cato is committed to an ideology. They aren’t in the business of creating better policy. At its best, it is in the business of coming up with the best ideologically acceptable policy. But that seems to be less and less of what they do.

Over the last two decades, I think they’ve become much more like the Heritage Foundation: interested more in selling libertarian (and increasingly general conservative) ideas than coming up with libertarian solutions to problems. I suspect the slide will continue.

Worst of all, Cato has mostly chosen to simply deny global warming. This was not necessary. The Property and Environment Research Center (PERC), has spent decades researching free market approaches to dealing with climate change and living with it.

There are groups like PERC who really think that free market solutions are the best way to deal with the problems we all face today. But increasingly, Cato is only interested in creating justifications for the existing power elite. I suspect with a yearly budget of over $30 million, Cato needs to tell a lot of rich people what they want to hear.

The best thing you can say about Cato is that of all the major conservative think tanks, it is clearly the best. It continues to do some excellent work. However, I think a serious libertarian would be a fool to give Cato any money. As a practical matter, the Cato Institute may complain about Republican politicians, but it acts as an apologist for the Republican Party.

As a group, I would give it a single star, because it does more harm than good. Its website, however, has a lot of interesting information. It is worth checking out. But it contains a lot of garbage too. Its writing on Social Security and Medicare are absolutely horrendous repetitions of the same old conservative talking points we’ve been hearing for decades. So you need to be aware of what Cato is up to, but it has some good information and it is well organized.

Cato InstituteI do want to give a special call out to the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC). The founder of the group is Terry L Anderson, and I read his book (with co-author Donald R Leal) Free Market Environmentalism when it was first published back in 1991. It had a chapter on global warming and it made the case that it might not be happening and that if it were it was likely to be less intense than the models predicted. I was in graduate school at the time and most of us thought the models were probably erring on the high side. (How wrong we were!) So the argument was reasonable at that time. But nonetheless, it had a section titled, “What If Chicken Little Is Right?” It then discussed things we could do. One of those, as I recall, was a cap and trade kind of idea. Since that time, he and his group have accepted global warming and do a lot of research on how to deal with emission controls and how we can manage the harm that is already being done. (Anderson published a new version of the book in 2001.)

To me, this is the work of a serious libertarian. Clearly, he believes in the free market. But it isn’t a religion to him. He isn’t an apologist for the oil industry. In general, I’ve found him to be a bit more optimistic about the power of markets and property rights than I think is reasonable. But he’s a smart and dedicated guy looking to find real solutions to our problems. We need more people like him. Cato used to have more people like that, but now they are mostly just a bunch of hacks who aren’t going to open your mind to new ideas because they have none. More than whether I agree with someone or not, I want them to be interesting. I think there are a lot of good ideas in free market environmentalism that come from the people at PERC. But Cato is only interested in those ideas as a way to avoid doing anything.

The New “Climate Always Changes” Ruse

Climate Change Is a HoaxLast night, I got involved in a long comment thread on Google+ about global warming. It pretty much summed up why I hate talking about this stuff. I don’t mind people going around spouting their nonsense, but don’t claim just because you read an article on some denier website that you have it all figured out. I spent a decade of my life doing little other than working on this stuff; I have the credentials and I know the science. But let me yield one point: most people who accept global warming are pretty ignorant too. But there is a big difference.

We all depend upon experts. I don’t know that the water I drink is safe. I just assume that the experts at the water works know what their doing and I’m not being poisoned with lead. This is the way that we must live our lives. So being ignorant of global warming but just accepting that climate scientists know what they’re doing is reasonable. Being ignorant of global warming but denying it because Marco Rubio and his oil industry fueled party tells you to is not (Not! Not! Not!) reasonable.

I specifically bring up Marco Rubio because in the thread last night there was a lot of talk about him, although I never heard his name uttered. Suddenly, the global warming deniers are repeating his new argument: the climate is always changing! The implication is that there’s no way we can know if humans are causing climate change because the climate would be changing if we weren’t here. Sigh.

Let me give you a good example of the problem with this way of looking at things. Over the long term, the stock market has an upward trend. The companies traded publicly are worth more on the whole every year. And yet, the stock market is random as anything. It goes up! It goes down! It is so unpredictable that the nightly news tells you how much it went up or down every day, even though in the long run, it doesn’t matter because it is going up!

The climate works exactly the same way. And there have been hundreds, maybe even thousands, of brilliant mathematicians over the centuries who have figured out ways to extract trends from very noisy data. So what this new line of attack is all about is disparaging science. These people might as well be Ken Ham: throw up their hands and say, “We just can’t know!” Unless the temperature is 80° this year and then 81° next year and then 82° the year after, there is nothing we can say. The climate is always changing. Who knows? Maybe it is as Tina Fey parodied Sarah Palin, “It’s just God hugging us closer.”

What most bugs me about all of this is the complete disregard of the Milankovitch cycles, which explain how differences in the tilt of the earth, its precession, and the eccentricity of its orbit explain the ice age cycle. One of the best articles I ever read in graduate school was about this one-dimensional model of the earth using Milankovitch theory. It found four distinct glacial states of the earth. The point was that the earth moved quickly from one state to another. The states are: no major glaciers (the state about 10,000 years ago—the Holocene), glaciers covering Greenland (where we are supposed to be now but won’t be for long), glaciers covering Canada, and glaciers covering the United States (the state about 100,000 years ago—the Tarantian).

All of this is due to radiative forcing. But it’s existence does not mean that thermal forcing from greenhouse gases is not also happening on top of that. By the Marco Rubio theory, Milankovitch must have been wrong. Ice ages just happen. “Tide comes in, tide goes out, you can’t explain it!” The underlying theory here is that the climate changes all the time for no reason whatsoever. Denial of global warming is like cancer denial. “There was a man who lived to be a hundred and he smoked every day of his life!” That may well be true, but the fact remains that pushing red hot nicotine into your lungs for a long period of time hurts your body. And pushing large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere hurts the human race, and most likely very much more.