Quantifying the Cost of the War on Drugs

Alice Speri - War on DrugsThe War on Drugs may have failed, but it certainly hasn’t ended: every 25 seconds in the US, someone is arrested for drug possession.

Arrests for the possession and personal use of drugs are boosting the ranks of the incarcerated at astonishing rates — with 137,000 people behind bars for drugs on any given day, and 1.25 million every year. Possession of even tiny quantities of illicit drugs is criminalized in every state, a felony in most, and the No 1 cause of all arrests nationwide. And while marijuana is now legal in a handful of states and decriminalized in others, in 2015 police nationwide made over 547,000 arrests for simple marijuana possession — more than for all categories of violent crime combined. These arrests are feeding people into a criminal justice system that’s rife with inefficiencies, abuse, and racism, and compounding drug users’ substance abuse with the lifelong impact of a criminal record.

The staggering numbers, detailed in a report released today by Human Rights Watch and the American Civil Liberties Union, shed new light on the colossal impact of the criminalization of drug use, as well as on the discriminatory impact of its enforcement. These laws have done nothing to stem the public health problem of drug addiction and in the process have destroyed countless lives and cost incalculable amounts of public resources in arrests, prosecution, and incarceration, the report charges.

—Alice Speri
Report: Every 25 Seconds, Cops Arrest Someone for Drug Possession

Paul Ryan Wasn’t Helping Trump Anyway

Paul RyanThe New York Times reported what is supposed to be big news, Paul Ryan Won’t Defend Donald Trump, Upsetting Trump and GOP Hard-Liners. It starts with the absurd claim, “House Speaker Paul D Ryan dealt a hammer blow to Donald J Trump’s presidential candidacy Monday, dashing any remaining semblance of party unity and inviting fierce backlash from his own caucus by announcing that he would no longer defend Mr Trump’s candidacy.” How is this a hammer blow?

Is Ryan a big Trump surrogate? No. Their relationship has been, at best, strained. It took him until June to endorse Trump’s candidacy. And then Trump paid him back by waiting until August to finally endorsed Paul Ryan’s re-election. And when he did so, Paul Ryan didn’t even show up.

Paul Ryan Hasn’t Been Good for Trump

Ryan has been more well known for things like calling on Trump to release his taxes. And calling a Trump statement “the textbook definition of a racist comment.” And most recently releasing a statement saying, “I am sickened by what I heard today.”

So again: where is the hammer blow? All that has happened is that Paul Ryan isn’t going to campaign for Trump for the next four weeks. Instead, he’s going to campaign for down-ballot candidates. But you know: that’s the same thing. Trump supporters don’t want to see Ryan at Trump’s rallies anyway. I suppose that more reasonable Republicans (ones that don’t show up to Trump rallies) might see Ryan with Trump and feel more comfortable voting for him. But after last Friday’s video? And what seems likely to be more embarrassments to come? I just don’t see Trump being harmed by this. It could even help him.

Now Paul Ryan Could Help Trump

So this is not going to change things for Trump. Even with a clear commitment to Trump, I don’t think Ryan really helps.

One way it could help Trump is by stopping Paul Ryan from having to respond to every new Trump outrage. This is where the “defend” comes from in the headline. So let’s suppose that the police arrest Trump when they find the skeletons of dozens of adolescent boys buried at Mar-a-Lago. Paul Ryan won’t need to demand an investigation. He won’t need to say that it’s a textbook case of pedophilic serial killing. He won’t be required to release a statement about how sickened he is. Instead, Paul Ryan can say, “I told you: I’m not defending Donald J Trump anymore!”

This whole article in The New York Times is typical of the press thinking things are important because the press thinks they are important. Paul Ryan certainly has maintained a high approval rating among Republicans. But we certainly haven’t seen any polls recently. The last one I could find was from back in July when he had an approval rating of 71 percent. But note: Donald Trump had an approval rating of 65 percent. And here’s the key: what do Republicans really know about Paul Ryan?

Ryan’s Soft Support

I think this is key. Paul Ryan knows that his support among Republicans is soft. That’s why he won’t come out and rescind his endorsement. He also knows that his grip on the House speakership is loose. According to Vox, after leaving the conference call yesterday morning where he laid out his decision, “He had to get back on the call to address accusations that he was abandoning the nominee.”

So this is not going to change things for Trump. Even with a clear commitment to Trump, I don’t think Ryan really helps. So this is really nothing to Trump.

What Paul Ryan Cares About

But it is a big deal to Ryan. In the call yesterday morning, Ryan reportedly said, “You [Republican House members] all need to do what’s best for you in your district.” That’s all that Ryan is doing. As Fortune noted, “Ryan’s message appeared to signal his disbelief in Trump’s ability to turn the campaign around with four weeks until election day.” This is all tax cuts and deregulation. If Ryan thought Trump would win, he wouldn’t have changed a thing.

Is Donald Trump’s Stock Falling?

Nate Silver - Trump's Falling StockThe second presidential debate on Sunday night was a strange one, with Donald Trump appearing to be on the brink of a meltdown in the first 20 to 30 minutes and then steadying himself the rest of the way. But here’s the bottom line: Based on post-debate polls, Hillary Clinton probably ended the night in a better place than she started it. And almost without question, she ended the weekend — counting the debate, the revelation on Friday of a 2005 tape in which Trump was recorded appearing to condone unwanted sexual contact against women, and the Republican reaction to the tape — in an improved position.

At times during the past two weeks, but particularly on Saturday afternoon as prominent Republicans were denouncing or unendorsing Trump one after another, it has seemed like Trump’s campaign is experiencing the political equivalent of a stock market crash. By that I mean: there’s some bad news that triggers the crash, and there’s also an element of panic and herd behavior, and it becomes hard to tell exactly which is which. At some point, the market usually finds its footing, as the stock has some fundamental value higher than zero. But it can be a long way down before it does…

In the end, your assessment of Trump’s chances comes down to the same consideration as with a falling stock: How sound are the fundamentals? Is Trump the equivalent of a beleaguered blue-chip that still has lots of hard assets? In Trump’s case, the most valuable asset is probably possession of the Republican Party ballot line, which theoretically ought to be worth something given the circumstances of the race. Or was the whole business a sort of confidence trick, which was bound to implode once people began to lose faith in it?

—Nate Silver
The Second Debate Probably Didn’t Help Trump, And He Needed Help

Elizabeth Channels Bill Pullman in Independence Day

Independence DayIn less than an hour the polls will open. Americans nationwide will join together with Americans around the world. And you will be launching the largest voting effort in the history of Americankind. We can’t be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interest. Perhaps it is fate that today is the day to elect Hillary Clinton. And that once again you will be fighting the forces of fascism. Fighting tyranny, oppression, and persecution. Fighting annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. As gay, straight, black, Asian, white, woman, transgender, immigrant or native born. For today is the day that America declared in nearly one voice “We will not go quietly into the night. We will not vanish without a fight. We are going to live on. We are going to survive. And we are going to defeat the Orange Menace!

—Elizabeth Rogers
Parody from Independence Day

Live Blog: Second Presidential Debate 2016

Second Presidential Debate 2016Welcome to the second presidential debate! Unlike many, I don’t expect this debate to be all that good. But part of it is just that I am a partisan. I want Clinton to do well. But even more than that, I constantly worry that if Trump does okay, the media will turn it into “great” and “a game changer.” I take nothing for granted in this election. Trump could still be our next president.

I do have an irrational fear, though. It goes like this: the Republican Party forces Trump out, runs Paul Ryan, and given there has been little attention paid to him recently, he wins. This will not happen, however. First, it would be hard for the Republican Party to organize. If they did, there are still a number of states where the electoral votes would have to go to Trump regardless. So it would be a virtual impossibility that the Trump substitute would win. It would all end in the courts. But if you want to be frightened, you can meditate on the Republicans’ willingness to steal an election via the courts.

How the Second Presidential Debate Will Go

My guess is that Trump is going to try to take the high road in this debate. He’s done his apology. And now he’s going to move on. The whole thing was 11 years ago. He was but a child — barely 59 years old! Regardless, it is the past and he is focused on the future. And a few dozen other platitudes that I could send your way. And to be honest, I think that that Clinton would be wise to let him. The damage has been done. Let’s move on to the next Trump outrage. That’s not to say she should let it go completely. But I don’t think it is a good idea to overplay this.

And it isn’t like Clinton has nothing to fear. Wikileaks just posted a bunch of Clinton email messages that provide information about some of the things she said at talks given to big banks on Wall Street. It doesn’t look that damning. But Clinton hasn’t been great in addressing these kind of vague allegations. What I find amazing is that anyone could look at her and Trump together and think, “Well obviously we can trust Trump!”

There are two things that make me confident about the debate. First is that Hillary Clinton is amazingly good, despite her muddled answers on email and speeches. And she has a great team. And I know that they’ve come at this debate from all angles. So if humble Trump shows up, Clinton will know what to do. If combative Trump shows up, ditto. And so on.

Second, Trump really is like a toddler. The debate is 90 minutes long. He has a hard time sitting still that long. And he really doesn’t have more than 5 minutes of material that isn’t about how great he is. So even if he does okay for the first 30 minutes, by 60 minutes, he will be cranky, and by 85 minutes, he will be Alec Baldwin:

And Away We Go!

That’s all I have to say for now. It’s hard living through this election. I think it is very important. And it doesn’t matter whether the eventual president is Trump or some other Republican, it will be a catastrophe. So I take this all quite seriously, which is why I have to drink to get through them. Although I plan not to drink as much as I did last time.

Now on with the second presidential debate!

Republican Establishment Will Always Love Trump

Donald Trump - Hero of Republican EstablishmentYesterday, all hell broke loose in the political world, Trump Recorded Having Extremely Lewd Conversation About Women in 2005. As with every Trump outrage, there was much speculation about maybe this being the time he’s gone too far. Maybe this time the Republican establishment would repudiate him. And then: nothing.

But this one was clearly worse than usual. Trump spoke in some detail about trying to bed a married woman. Given that he admits to failure, it is clearly true. Then he speaks about his celebrity allowing him to get away with groping women. He says, “Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything.” Whether or not that’s true seems less clear to me. But admitting to sexual assault to impress the boys is still vile. And all it seems to have cost Trump in terms of endorsements is two little known politicians from Utah.

Republican Establishment Is Outraged!

Otherwise, what we got was a lot of outrage from the Republican establishment. Paul Ryan released a statement, “I am sickened by what I heard today. Women are to be championed and revered, not objectified. I hope Mr Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests.” Mitch McConnell released a similar statement, “These comments are repugnant, and unacceptable in any circumstance.” He wants Trump to “apologize directly to women and girls everywhere.”

Why such faux outrage? I think Brian Beutler summed it up nicely in this tweet:

That is: bragging about sexual assault is bad, but it’s nothing when you consider that Trump would cut taxes on the rich.

But really: the recording is, in an important sense, meaningless. We’ve had well over a year of Donald Trump running for president. We all know what kind of man he is. But more to the point: his supporters know what kind of man he is. And they don’t care. They will never care. There is roughly half the Republican base (basket of deplorables) that will vote for Trump no matter what. Even more concerning is that the Republican establishment is in agreement that tax cuts for the rich and benefit cuts for the poor more than offset anything Trump could ever do. If Trump turned out to be a serial killer, they would still support him.

Central Park Five

Meanwhile, just a day before, we learned, Donald Trump Still Thinks The Central Park Five Are Guilty. These are men who were exonerated by DNA evidence. Yet Trump just somehow knows. And he made a telling (and ironic) comment, “And the woman, so badly injured, will never be the same.” I’ve always found this kind of statement odd: there is a victim so we must punish someone regardless of their guilt! But that’s what “law and order” is all about: it’s an authoritarian approach to running a country — control through terrorism directed at the weakest members of society.

What I think is most interesting about this recording’s release is how it changes the dynamics of Sunday night’s debate (that I will be live blogging). Until the recording came out, Trump indicated that he was going to be calm and focused on policy. But last night, he released the following video statement that seems to indicate there is a new plan:

Basically: I’m sorry; but Bill Clinton is worse; and Hillary protected him!

What We Have Learned

So what have we learned? Donald Trump is a vile man? Nope: already knew that. The Republican establishment would feed all their mothers to hyenas in exchange for a reduction in the top marginal tax rate? Nope: already knew that too. That there is no shame on the right? Sorry. The whole thing is just more of the same. When exactly the three-fours of the country who aren’t deplorables will learn this, I cannot say.

The “Hillary Would Be Losing…” Myth

Hillary Would Be LosingI’ve been hearing for months that the Republicans would win this presidential election if only they hadn’t nominated Donald Trump. I’m not completely against this line of reasoning. I had hoped from last summer that that GOP base really had no ideological bearings and so would nominate him because I thought he would be a weak candidate. But I think this idea that “Hillary would be losing to any other candidate” is just a myth. I wrote about this back in May, John Kasich Would Not Beat Hillary Clinton. Remember: Kasich is about the most “reasonable” candidate the Republicans have.

One thing that bugs me about the whole “Hillary would be losing” game is that it is just that: a game. Although I think it is based on bad reporting over decades, Hillary Clinton has very low approval numbers. So what does it even say that if the Republicans had nominated someone more popular than she that they would win this election? It’s almost a tautology: Hillary would be losing if Hillary were losing. I think what we are really supposed to take away from this is that the country is really in a Republican mood. It’s a way for conservatives and (even more) moderates to whistle past the left turn the country is taking.

The Trump Tax

What most brought this all back up for me was Vox‘s Trump Tax. This is a very silly exercise where they look at six political science models, take a weighted average, and then decide where the race should be right now. Based upon this, they think it should be Generic Republican +1.8 percentage points. Also note: the range of the models is 8 percentage points (Generic Democrat +4.0 to Generic Republican +12.0).

Will Donald Trump Win?Now, being as I’m a “fundamentals guy,” you might think I would like this approach. I do, after all, have my very own election model. Now my model is very simple. But there’s a reason for that. I’ve always thought that election models were mostly nonsense. The only thing you can really depend upon is the economic trend. The rest, I believe, is noise. It’s based upon the fact that these models are really nothing but correlations. And they are based on a very small sample size — in general, no one looks at elections before Eisenhower.

Professional “Hillary Would Be Losing”

If you really want to play the “Hillary would be losing” game, you can take it to the professional level. You can say, “If Trump weren’t so bad a candidate, the press would have spent more time picking over the Republican candidate instead of just shrugging and saying, ‘You know Trump!'” Or you can go back further and say, “If Democrats didn’t see the mess that was the Republican primary, they might have nominated someone other than Hillary.” You can play the “Hillary would be losing” game to the end of time. It means nothing.

Another thing that bugs me about all of this is exactly what a Generic Republican is. The models are based on elections when Republicans had better candidates. If it wasn’t Trump, it was going to be Ted Cruz — a man so vile even Republicans hate him. Or what about the much more likable Marco Rubio? I always thought that Hillary would have eaten him for lunch. So I’m not sure what Generic Republican tells us anymore. What my model tells us is that this election should give the Democrats a slight advantage.

So if conservatives and moderates want to make themselves feel better by playing the “Hillary would be losing” game, fine. But all it really says is that in a different universe, things would be different. And I think we can all agree on that.

Why Conservative Christians Support Trump

Jesus Weeping - Conservative ChristiansI was really struck by a line in David Cay Johnston’s excellent The Making of Donald Trump, “Trump says he does not see any reason to seek divine forgiveness because he has done nothing wrong in his entire life, an oft-made observation so at odds with the most basic teachings of Jesus that I am at a loss to explain any religious leader embracing him.”

I understand: one of the most basic tenets of Christianity is Original Sin. So Trump calling himself a Christian should be offensive to any Christian who takes their religion seriously. But add to that a man like Trump who so clearly has sinned again God, and it makes you want to bang you head against a wall. Still, I think I can explain: religion is politics.

Earlier today, I was looking at the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast for the 2016 presidential election. Trump has a 99.3 percent chance of winning Utah. I understand: Utah is a red state and you may think it is no big deal. But back in March, there was a whole lot of reporting like Kira Lerner’s Mormons Detest Donald Trump. It wasn’t alone in reporting this idea:

Mormons also have a deep memory of religious persecution, and Trump’s Islamophobia, bigotry, and rejection of Muslims is “certainly something Mormons find distasteful,” [Matt] Bowman told ThinkProgress.

Professor Bowman also said, “Trump, both in his private life and his public persona — his crassness, his affairs — all of that kind of thing offends Mormon sensibilities.”

Mormon’s Love Trump!

Real Clear Politics, however, has Trump leading Clinton by 14.7 percentage points.

I used to use the term “cultural Christian” as a pejorative. But I now tend to think that all religious (and areligious and anti-religious) belief is merely tribal signaling.

Let’s contrast Trump to Clinton for a moment. She may be something of a hawk, but she certainly isn’t a demagogue who will persecute religious minorities. She certainly seems to have lived a socially conservative life. And despite what most people seem to think, Clinton is actually quite religious — a lifetime member of the United Methodist Church.

But the Mormons of Utah aren’t swayed by this, just as conservative Christians elsewhere aren’t. And I think they are right not to be so. Because their religion isn’t about Kolob or magic underpants or any of the other silly things that Mormons are rightfully known for. As much as I may look up into the night sky a marvel at existence, that just isn’t what religion is for the vast majority of people. For them, religion is social. And that means that it is political.

Religion Is Politics

So when a Catholic takes Communion, they don’t actually believe that the little wafer literally turns into the the body of Jesus — even if they tell you that they do. They are just making a public statement, “This is who I am in the society of which I am part.” And this is why American protestants went from not caring about abortion in 1970 to caring about little else in 1980.

This is a fact that we liberals — especially of my generation — miss when it comes to religion. We think of Jesus as the Prince of Peace and have a very hippy conception of the man. But that’s just one Jesus. It’s one I like: guy who didn’t care about hygiene, hung out with the dregs of society, and stood for the poor. But for conservative Christians, Jesus is more like Rambo, coming back to kick some ass.

Conservative Christians Should Love Trump

So we can’t claim that our own Jesus (Especially people like me who aren’t believers anyway!) is right and that others’ are wrong. None of it matters. I used to use the term “cultural Christian” as a pejorative. But I now tend to think that all religious (and areligious and anti-religious) belief is merely tribal signaling.

Donald Trump will cut taxes on the rich. Donald Trump will make it harder to get an abortion. Donald Trump will deregulate. These are the reasons that Mormons and other conservative Christians will vote for him. Religion is politics. And it always was. Jesus said, “Blessed are the gentle, for they shall inherit the earth.” I believe modern conservative Christians are working the opposite side, “Blessed are the powerful, for they shall inherit the earth.” I think they are wrong. In fact, I think they are evil. But I think they are quite right to support Donald Trump.

Trump Is Running for Dictator Not President

The Making of Donald Trump - DictatorMany of the things Trump says he would do if elected are not within the limited powers we grant presidents. Presidents cannot unilaterally spend taxpayer money, cannot impose tariffs on foreign goods, and cannot dictate to corporations where they will invest. They also cannot expect soldiers to follow illegal orders, as Trump has said he would demand, from the use of torture — prohibited by our Constitution and the treaties that are the law of the land — to the killing of innocent civilians, notably the children of terrorists he describes as Islamic (terrorists whom I consider Muslim apostates who describe themselves in their own publications as apocalyptic believers expecting the word to end soon).

Businessmen can, as Trump often does, dismiss people and move on. Presidents do not enjoy that luxury. They must contend with ever-present forces that are not subject to their control. A president cannot dismiss a troublemaking foreign head of state, cannot order Congress to pass laws, and cannot disobey the rulings of judges — not if we are to be a free people, living subject to the rule of law that protects our individual liberties. Yet Trump makes clear that he would do all these things. His vision is, in many ways, not that of a president but of a dictator, as many others have observed in both political parties and beyond America’s borders.

—David Cay Johnston
The Making of Donald Trump

Two Heartland House Races: Iowa 03 and Illinois 10

David YoungToday, we head to the heartland. On the docket are races in two Congressional districts: Iowa 03 and Illinois 10. Both of these districts are considered toss ups by The Cook Political Report.

Iowa 03: Playing it Safe

Iowa’s incumbent is Republican David Young. He has only been in office since 2014. Iowa has a strange system where a convention is held if no one in the primary gets more than 35% of the vote. David Young came in 5th out of six candidates, but surprisingly won at the convention. He then went on to win the general election by over 10 percentage points against Democratic challenger Staci Appel.

A former chief of staff to Senator Chuck Grassley, David Young has played it very safe since being elected. Mainly, he is known for showing up — having not missed a single vote.  Then again, with the low number of days the Republican House works, how hard is that?

His opponent this year is a second time candidate named Jim Mowrer. He’s an Iraq War veteran who made some locals uneasy about his run. However, he won decisively in his primary.

Neither candidate stands out, although Jim Mowrer has support from high powered people like Joe Biden (who’s son served with Mowrer in Iraq). That said, Young surprisingly voted for a bill that supported the President’s efforts on anti-discrimination for the LGBT community. So he may be trying to be somewhat less of a typical Republican. Or he may have a personal reason. (See: Rob Portman Affected By Gay Bigotry.) It is unclear.

Right now the polling favors David Young by a large amount. So do the registration numbers (pdf). But that doesn’t mean that things won’t change as we enter the final stretch.

This race doesn’t look too hopeful for Jim Mowrer. But David Young is not distancing himself from the Orange Disaster at the top of the ticket. And if Patty Judge manages to defeat Chuck Grassley for Senate, Mowrer might ride her coattails into the House.

Illinois 10: Routine Rematch

Illinois 10 is represented by Republican Robert Dold. And he is facing Brad Schneider this year. And if that sounds familiar, then you’re a political freak who pays way more attention than your doctor would likely recommend. But there is something very familiar about this race. In 2014, the same two candidates ran against each other. In the end, Dold beat Schnider 51% to 49%. But there’s more! In 2012 Brad Schneider defeated Robert Dold 51% to 49%. This district just cannot make up its mind. (Actually, it’s all about turnout.) Both are part of the major fundraising initiatives from the two national congressional committees and are hotly contesting the seat.

Brad SchneiderIn a surprising twist, Dold not only rejected Trump but was pretty nasty about it. Which may mean that of the Republicans running, he has the least adverse effect of the Trump disaster brewing at the top of the ticket. So the attempts from Schneider to attach Trump to Dold are not going to work (there may be residual disgust in general against Republicans).

The two actually agree on a lot of things, which may not be a surprise with a Republican in a Democratic leaning district.  Dold even supports some gun control!  Not anything created by a Democrat, but it is still very surprising. And it shows he is serious about keeping his seat since that is usually a total poison pill for any Republican.

But this is a Democratic leaning district and so the polling reflects a likely win by Schneider.

Final Thoughts

I have little idea on how Iowa 03 will turn out. It looks like it is David Young’s race to lose. He is a very quiet Representative, who votes cautiously and consistently middle of the road. But we will see.

Illinois 10 looks like a Democratic pickup. But it will be a razor thin margin since Schneider isn’t very popular.

Live Blog: Vice-Presidential Debate 2016

Vice-Presidential Debate BeerThis is going to be something. I’m actually looking forward to this. I don’t think this debate can possibly matter in this election. And the two guys who are debating are actually pretty representative of their parties. Democrat Tim Kaine is hardly my kind of a politician, but he’s a standard Democrat at this point. And while Republican Mike Pence is a vile piece of garbage, he’s very much in keeping with his party. If the economy collapsed and 50 million people lost their jobs, Mike Pence would be against doing anything to help if a Democrat was in the White House, because, like virtually all Republicans, he places party above nation.

What I wonder about the vice-presidential debate is if the two candidates are going to go after the presidential nominees. That will be sad — at least for me. Jerry Bowles wrote a good primer, Think Trump Is Scary? Check Out Mike Pence on the Issues. But it doesn’t much go into economics. On that, he’s a typical supply-sider. He voted against the 2009 stimulus, although to be fair, he likely would have voted for it if a Republican had been in the White House. He was against foreclosure relief. Basically, you can determine the correct economic policy by choosing whatever Mike Pence is against.

Tim Kaine is a mixed bag. On a personal level, I like it. I like people who surprise me. And Kaine seems all over the map, well, all over the map. But he isn’t vile. He’s just wrong. Like on the Trans-Pacific Partnership — he’s just wrong. It would be great if the debate allowed me to get a better handle on him as a politician. But I fear that won’t be the case.

What I Expect

I’m afraid the whole thing is going to be dueling charges of how the other’s running mate is awful. “You’re part of a racist campaign!” And, “You’re complicit in Hillary’s lies!” I expect the worst from Pence because he’s been very public in defending Trump’s lies. He seems to have no shame whatsoever. Of course, if he doesn’t become vice-president, he will have no political career either. At least Tim Kaine has a political future regardless.

But none of this really matters. I have two friends that will help me through this vice-presidential debate. The first is Modern Romance by Midnight Sun Brewing Company. The second is Denogginizer by Drake’s Brewing Company. They are both very tasty. But more important in a situation like the vice-presidential debate, they are both almost 10% alcohol. I may not be able to type by the end.

When Obama Learned Republicans Hate America

Obama HopeBy that point it was pretty apparent by his actions that it was already his [Mitch McConnell] number one goal. He validated what I think most of this town knew. When I came into office, my working assumption was that because we were in crisis, and the crisis had begun on the Republicans’ watch, that there would be a window in which they would feel obliged to cooperate on a common effort to dig us out of this massive hole. Probably the moment in which I realized that the Republican leadership intended to take a different tack was actually as we were shaping the stimulus bill, and I vividly remember having prepared a basic proposal that had a variety of components. We had tax cuts; we had funding for the states so that teachers wouldn’t be laid off and firefighters and so forth; we had an infrastructure component. We felt, I think, that as an opening proposal, it was ambitious but needed and that we would begin negotiations with the Republicans and they would show us things that they thought also needed to happen. On the drive up to Capitol Hill to meet with the House Republican Caucus, John Boehner released a press statement saying that they were opposed to the stimulus. At that point we didn’t even actually have a stimulus bill drawn up, and we hadn’t meant to talk about it. And I think we realized at that point what proved to be the case in that first year and that second year was a calculation based on what turned out to be pretty smart politics but really bad for the country: If they cooperated with me, then that would validate our efforts. If they were able to maintain uniform opposition to whatever I proposed, that would send a signal to the public of gridlock, dysfunction, and that would help them win seats in the midterms. It was that second strategy that they pursued with great discipline. It established the dynamic for not just my presidency but for a much sharper party-line approach to managing both the House and the Senate that I think is going to have consequences for years to come.

—Barack Obama
Interview with Jonathan Chait