As I noted yesterday in an update to Those Non-Deplorables: Still Pretty Deplorable, I feel good right now. I’m ready to fight. And a big part of that will require leveraging the power of the Democratic Party base. So I don’t want to spend a bunch of time talking about the election. In particular, I don’t want to talk about how James Comey’s letter itself probably gave Trump the environment he needed to win. And I don’t want to talk about our media that really wasn’t interested in Trump other than as a shiny celebrity. And I don’t want to talk about how the media has only been interested Hillary Clinton’s email server. Our country has a corrupt bureaucracy and an incompetent media.

But there are two things that I think we need to discuss. The first is that Hillary Clinton got the majority of counted votes. She got almost a quarter million more votes than Donald Trump. I know that that isn’t how our presidential elections are run. But I don’t think Trump’s victory was the result of a keen regional strategy. Instead, he just got the votes he was going to get. And it is certainly the case that all those “I’m in a safe state so I can vote for Jill Stein” people would have had more pressure to vote for Clinton. (If Clinton had received all of Jill Stein’s vote in Wisconsin, she would have won the state. If she had won 25% of Stein’s votes in Michigan, she would have won that state.)

Get Rid of the Electoral College

We really need to start working on getting rid of the electoral college system. In the last five elections, two were won by the candidate who got the least votes. That’s a 40 percent error rate. That’s just not acceptable. And I know: changing the system would require a constitutional amendment. But I think it is very doable. Even conservatives hate the electoral college system. I think they would back such an amendment because they know that they could be the next to be screwed by it.

Check out this CGP Grey video that was made years ago before the most recent outrage:

There’s another reason for doing this. Republicans have started talking about making their states proportional. So, for example, a state that is generally Democratic (but currently controlled by Republicans (like Michigan) could really hurt the Democrats’ chances of winning a the White House.

But mostly, I think the electoral college is just a moral issue. It isn’t fair and it has no justification.

Increase Voter Turnout

With all of the coverage that the presidential race got this year, you would think this would have been a huge year for voting. But you would be wrong. The US population has 10 million more people than it had in 2012. Yet 12 million fewer people voted this year than voted in 2012. That’s a shocking 10 percent decrease in the number of people voting. Neither Clinton nor Trump got as many votes as Mitt Romney did in 2012 — much less President Obama who got 5 million more votes than that.

This, above all else, was why Donald Trump won the election. This is, pretty much, why Republicans ever win presidential elections. High turnout is bad for Republicans and good for Democrats. And this strikes me as something we can do something about. But we need to think about it differently than we have been.

The Democratic Party Base Must Take Control

We need to stop thinking about turnout like it is something you do in the days and weeks leading up to an election. We need to start thinking about the Democratic Party like it were a union. And most of all, we need to work on making the Democratic Party base think that they are the party. Because that is the way it is supposed to be anyway. We all need to own the party. It shouldn’t be about showing up to vote for Clinton (or even worse against Trump). It should be something that we do because we are committed to the party.

And I think that gets at something that is really important. We all know that the Democratic Party base is more liberal than the elites. And that’s especially true on economic issues — the issues that most cross over to the Republican base. There are not only electoral possibilities there; there are also legislative possibilities if the Democratic Party base and the Republican Party base are represented by their elites.

Conclusion

I know that getting rid of the electoral college is a lot of work and it will take a long time. But it’s worth the effort. Working on making the Democratic Party base see itself as the party itself is even more important. And that’s something that we — the Democratic Party base — can do something about. It starts with being proud of being a Democrat. It’s our party and we need to work to make it represent us.

Well, the time has come. And I figured that I should live blog election day — the whole day. Because I’m going to be obsessing about it anyway. It won’t be like the debate live blogs. I’ll just post things as I find them.

But before I get to that, I want to tell you how I’m thinking the day is going to go. And it isn’t as wonderful as I would hope. Not that I think it is going to be catastrophic.

Presidential Race

The good news this election day is that I think that Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of the United States. And I think she will win by a clear margin. Her polling average went way down at Real Clear Politics. On 2 November, she was ahead by only 1.3 percentage points. Yesterday afternoon, she was back up to 2.9 percentage points. In a four-way race, she’s up by 3.2 percentage points.

And in the electoral college, Trump’s pathway to victory is ridiculously narrow. If he loses Florida or North Carolina, he loses the election. And yesterday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight had Clinton with narrow margins in both of those states. Really: the only way that Trump becomes president is if he wins every state that is close. It could happen, but I find it really hard to worry about it.

Senate Races

Where I don’t feel good this election day is in the Senate races. This should be a great year for the Democrats. The Republicans are defending 24 seats and the Democrats only 10. And assuming that Clinton does win, the Democrats only have to pick up four seats. That doesn’t sound like much. The Democrats are certain to pick up two seats: Wisconsin and Illinois. There are 5 close races where they could pick up seats: North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. But they are only leading in the polls in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and it isn’t by much. Meanwhile, the Republicans are leading comfortably in North Carolina and Indiana — at least according to FiveThirtyEight.

The problem with this is that all these elections are not independent. It isn’t like a random walk. The truth is that the close races will probably all go one way. And that could be great! Theoretically, the Democrats could get 53 seats. But I think two of those are too far gone. So the best we are looking at is 51 seats. If I wanted to be really generous: 52. But it means if things go really wrong, the Democrats could end up with just 48 seats. If the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, they will force a constitutional crisis on the country. Really, they already have by refusing to allow Obama to seat a replacement for Scalia.

Good News

Most of this gloomy analysis comes from FiveThirtyEight. But I do have my doubts about it. When I look at the data they are using, it doesn’t make sense. Taking into account the time when the polls were taken, biases that FiveThirtyEight has calculated, and the grades of the pollsters, I just don’t see where they get some of their numbers.

For example, in Pennsylvania, they give Katie McGinty a 61 percent chance of winning. Since mid-Oct, there have been 19 polls. McGinty has been winning in 16 of them. The median is 2 percent. I think that’s a solid lead. But in North Carolina, they give Richard Burr a 71 percent change of winning, when his median is just 1 percent.

I know that there is more to the FiveThirtyEight model than polls. But these strike me as odd. Meanwhile, Sam Wang gives McGinty a 3 percent advantage, and Burr a 0.5 percent advantage. So it isn’t that I’m crazy. I’m clearly looking at the election the way that Wang is and not the way that Nate Silver and company are.

But I worry, because FiveThirtyEight is really good. They were far more accurate in 2014 (and earlier) than Wang was. If this were all I had to go on, I’d be despairing. But I’m not.

Voter Turnout

We do know that Hillary has a cutting edge get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation. And Trump has almost nothing. I don’t know if this is showing up in the polls or not. I do know that political science tells us that a good GOTV operation can improve a candidates vote total by between 1 and 5 percentage points. So it is still possible that Clinton is going to win really big and drag not just the Senate but the House with her. But I am more a “prepare for the worst” rather than a “hope for the best” kind of guy.

It should be an interesting election day! I’ll see you throughout it.

In the film, American Beauty, Wes Bentley’s character asks Thora Birch’s character, “You wanna see the most beautiful thing I’ve ever filmed?” What we are shown is a plastic bag dancing in the wind amongst some leaves. It is played against a backdrop of melancholy piano music. I don’t remember what I thought or felt watching this for the first time, being that it was nearly two decades ago. But it was supposed to be very artsy-fartsy and evocative. I do, however, have some very strong feelings, now, when I see any single-use plastic bag swirling around outside in the wind. I feel sadness and disgust. Those bags are so bad for so many reasons.

On land, plastic, single-use bags are difficult to recycle. They frequently clog up recycling machines. If the bags end up in landfills, which is what happens to most of the 13 billion distributed each year in California, it takes about a thousand years for them to break down. When they do break down, gases from the petroleum products used to make them are released into the atmosphere. This means more carbon gases to accelerate global warming and subsequent climate change.

Plastic Bags Get Around

If people don’t keep an eye on their plastic bags, they can get into sewers and find their way to the ocean. In the Pacific, all kinds of plastics have formed the Earth’s largest dump know as the Pacific Garbage Patch. It has been collecting for quite a few decades, and its mass is six times that of surface zooplankton. Sea creatures, from jellyfish to whales, will confuse plastic for food and become sick and, sadly, often die because of it. These animals also commonly die of strangulations by plastic bags.

So reducing the use of plastics any way we can should be a no-brainer, and eliminating or greatly reducing single-use plastic bags is one way we can do that. Wee did just that with SB270. Now the plastics industry, under the guise of the American Progressive Bag Alliance, has put forth two propositions on the California ballot, 65 and 67.

Propositions 65 and 67

The argument for prop 65 is that, since consumers are required to pay 10¢ for a sturdy, reusable bags, in case they don’t have their own, the profits made from the purchase of those bags should go to environmental groups. Superficially, prop 65 looks good, but it is misleading. The 10-cent price really only covers the cost of the bags, since they are of higher quality than the one-time use bags. There really would be no profits to give to the environmental groups. The plastics industry is trying to deflect focus away from the serious effects of plastic bags.

As for prop 67, it is asking us to make sure we still want to place a ban on most single-use plastic bags. It is an effort to veto SB270, which Governor Brown signed in 2014. The American Progressive Bag Alliance claims this law is poorly written, but what would you expect from the plastics industry, since SB270 threatens their profits. There are many details to cover, but if you want more information, a good resource is from Heal the Bay.

So, bottom line… I recommend a no vote on 65 and a yes vote on 67.

The time has come for the general election. It’s tomorrow, in case you were wondering: 8 November 2016. And California, as usual, has too many ballot measures. The system really has gotten out of hand. Now any idiot millionaire can get anything at all on the ballot. And I find myself lost much of the time. We have, for example, a ballot measure to get rid of the death penalty because it is too expensive. And we have a ballot measure to make it easier for the state to kill people.

You might think, “Well, it’s California, so they’ll get rid of the death penalty!” And you’d be wrong. The people of California have shown themselves very keen on the death penalty. In fact, they threw out three California Supreme Court justices because they weren’t voting to kill people. And they were replaced — this is what it was really all about — with three pro-corporate justices. Ah, democracy in a nation of economic inequality!

People

But before I get to the ballot measures, let’s do the people. It isn’t too hard to guess where I come down.

President

I’m voting for Hillary Clinton. I realize that I’m in a “safe” state so I can “vote my conscience.” But there are a couple of things: voting my conscience in a two party system is derp. More important, even if I factor in the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, I like Clinton the best. I think she might even be a great president. But she will certainly be a good one — especially given what she’ll be up against.

Senator

There are two Democrats running for Senate here: Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez. This is because of our stupid “top two” voting system. Even though I am a Democrat, I really believe there should be a Republican on the ballot. Harris is going to win. But Sanchez has a long history as a solid liberal legislator, so she’s my clear choice. But I’m fine with Harris.

House 5th District

I will vote for Mike Thompson. I’m not terribly keen on him, but I sure won’t vote for Republican Carlos Santamaria. Thompson got almost 66 percent of the vote in the primary, so he’s going to crush Santamaria.

State Assembly 2nd District

Our incumbent is Democrat Jim Wood. His seat is so safe, no Republicans even ran against him. Instead, he is running against Libertarian Ken Anton. Anton is a very typical libertarian. He tries to come off as caring about humanity with talk of believing in the goodness of people. But you know where he stands. He wants to defend Prop 13 because it protects “the most vulnerable citizens.” That’s a canard that conservatives have been pushing since the measure was put on the ballot.

Santa Rosa High School District

There are six people running for four seats. Both Caroline Bañuelos and Evelyn Anderson seem good but are less qualified for the job. Jenni Klose has been effective on the board. Laurie Fong has an enormous amount of experience as a teacher and administrator. Laura Gonzalez may be abrasive, but she’s very experienced — both as a teacher and as a board member. And Ed Sheffield is very well connected in the local Democratic Party and I think that’s helpful. But I think they are all good people.

Santa Rosa City Council

It’s the same situation as for the school board: six people up for four seats. Santa Rosa recently passed a rent control law. Three of the candidates support it: Julie Combs, Jack Tibbetts and Chris Rogers. The other three don’t: Ernesto Olivares, Don Taylor and Brandi Asker. I’m not terribly keen on rent control in a general sense. But in this place and this time, I think it is a good idea. So I’m voting for the first three and not for the second three. So I am giving up one of my votes.

Ballot Measures

There are way too many ballot measures.

Statewide Measures

We start with 17 statewide ballot measures:

51: School Bonds

Our schools are doing much better than they have in terms of funding. But I still think we need to do more. Yes.

52: MediCal Hospital Fee

This is a bureaucratic initiative. I feel like I shouldn’t be asked. But I don’t like all this short-term planning. Let’s make it permanent. Yes.

53: Bonds Require Voter Approval

Just what we need: a law to make the state even harder to govern. The idea here is clearly to stop the government from functioning. I’m sure the rich are all for it. But I would bet that it will pass. No, no, a thousand times no!

54: Publish Bills Online Before Voted On

This is another supposed “good government” bill that is likely to lead to bad government. At best, it won’t matter. And if that’s the best it will be, the vote is obvious. No.

55: Extend Taxes for Education and Healthcare

We raised a number of temporary taxes back in 2012 to get the state budget in order. This measure would extend the increase in taxes on incomes over $250,000 for 12 years. State taxes tend to be regressive. We need to do all we can to increase taxes on the rich — especially when it is for a good cause. Yes.

56: Cigarette Tax

I’m for doing everything we can to stop people smoking. But this is an extremely regressive tax. And it’s huge: $2 per pack. Given that it tends to be the poor who smoke, this is the wrong way to go about the issue. If they combined it with an increase of 5 percent income tax on incomes over $50,000, then maybe I’d be for it. But not this way. No.

57: Parole of Non-Violent Offenders

No one would be surprised here. Most of these prisoners are just people who like drugs that aren’t approved by the state. A thousand times: yes!

58: English Proficiency

This is another issue that I don’t think I should be asked about. But as best I can tell, this ballot measure would give teachers and schools more control. Yes.

59: Call for Citizen’s United Overturn

What a waste of time. No vote.

60: Adult Film Condom Requirement

I like the idea of this. Just the same, the adult film industry in California is distinctly larger than Hollywood. I don’t like the idea of the industry fleeing the state. I would be in favor of a nationwide ban — not only on production but on importation. I’m reluctant on this one though because lives are in the balance. No.

61: Prescription Drug Purchases

When I get three times as many “No” ads as “Yes” for a proposition, it’s pretty clear how to vote. This is a good bill. But the people against it make the same argument they always do: if you control costs, the pharmaceutical companies will just raise prices for other people. Really?! I didn’t know economics worked that way. I thought they were already maximizing profits. If they could sell their drugs for more, they would. Yes.

62: End Death Penalty

The death penalty is morally indefensible. Yes.

63: Background Check for Buying Bullets

You know the old saying: guns don’t kill people, bullets kill people. Yes.

64: Cannabis Legalization

I hate “medical marijuana.” It is so obviously a con. (That’s not to say that it doesn’t have medicinal value.) It should just be legalized. Yes.

65: Carryout Bags

I think that if people are forced to buy a bag, the money shouldn’t go to the store. Yes.

66: Death Penalty Procedures

This is the “It’s taking too long to kill people so let’s make it easier to kill innocent people” proposition. It’s just vile. And it will almost certain pass. No!

67: Single-Use Plastic Bag Ban

I’m not happy about who brought this law to us, but it is already the law in many localities (like Santa Rosa). So let’s just make it universal. Yes.

Local Ballot Measures

And if that wasn’t enough, there are six local ballot measures:

K: Open Spaces

This does reduce representational power. However, I’m not that keen on our supervisors. And this is about open spaces. Yes.

L: Country Tourist Tax

This increases the tourist tax by 33 percent of its current value — taking it up to 12 percent. Seems reasonable. Yes.

M: GMO Ban

I don’t like GMO products. It isn’t because of health. I believe they are safe. My problem is with the intellectual property aspects of them. We are moving toward a world where there will be rents on wild berries. Yes.

N: Keep Higher Sales Tax

Sales taxes are regressive. Let’s cut it back. Get the needed money elsewhere.

O: Increase Public Safety Spending

If the city provided me with details I might vote for it. But public safety includes a lot of stuff I’m in favor of and lot of stuff I’m not. This measure will win overwhelmingly, but not with my help. No.

Y: Increase Sales Tax for Public Libraries

It’s for the public library system. I wish we were funding some other way. But our library system is dying. And it is really important to the poor. Yes.

Geez, that was exhausting. Life in California.

Vote!

Google has provided this great tool that tells you most of what you will be voting on. You just enter your address. Use it!

And then vote tomorrow if you haven’t already!

So when we moved to Cincinnati, we got the cheapest apartment we could find. It was the lowest apartment in the building, and we got hit by a summer storm. So what didn’t get destroyed by water got destroyed by mold. And I was, I think, seven and a half months pregnant, eight months pregnant at the time. So I was calling every charity I could, thinking, I just need a chair. For or whatever reason in my head, if I could just get a chair, then everything else would be fine. But I needed a place to sit. I got in touch with one charity who said, “Yeah, you can come and pick up a chair but you’re gonna need you to go to a resume-writing class.” And I said, “For what?” And they said, “Well, because we need you to be looking for work and trying to better your situation; we don’t just give charity to just anybody. We need to make sure that you’re, you know, invested — you got some skin in the game.” And I said, “Okay, when is the resume-writing class?” And she gave me two different times. And I said, “Well, I have to be at work at both of those times.” And they said, “Well, if you want the charity you have to show up to the class.” And I was like, “If I come to the class I’ll get fired.” And this woman was telling me how I really needed to learn to write my resume so that I could find gainful employment, so that I could get the stupid chair that was probably worth five bucks.

That is what personal responsibility means to somebody on welfare. It means here are these stupid hoops that we’re gonna make you jump through and then we’re going to give you a solution that absolutely won’t work for you. It’s that kind of just over and over beating your head against these ridiculous regulations and these double-binds that don’t make any sense. And the whole thing is set up specifically to humiliate you as much as possible because what we need poor people to do in America more than anything else in the world is know their place.

—Linda Tirado
Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook: Poverty in America Edition