Federal Reserve Continues Looking Out for the Rich

Federal ReserveAs should shock no one, Federal Reserve Raises Benchmark Rate as Inflation Approaches 2 Percent Target. As I’ve noted many times before, the 2 percent target is a joke. First, it is a number that Alan Greenspan pulled out of the air (perhaps in a tight cavity located at the bottom of his torso). Second, the Fed increasingly treats that inflation target like a ceiling. Since 2009, US core inflation has been consistently below 2 percent. It is only for the last year that it has been slightly more than 2 percent.

Who the Federal Reserve Works For

It’s clear who the Federal Reserve is working for. Having a 4 percent inflation target would make us no more likely to suffer from high inflation, much less hyperinflation. Given that our current 2 percent target is not based on any evidence or theory, it can’t be said to be better in economic terms. The only thing you can say about the 2 percent target is that it is good for people who have a lot of money. If we had a 4 percent inflation target, it would mean that people with a lot of money would effectively be taxed a little bit on it. But it would also mean that millions more people would have jobs.

That’s a fair trade-off. The rich would be slightly less rich. But in exchange, millions of poor people would have jobs and thus would not be nearly as poor (or poor at all). Our libertarian friends would now like to play the smallest violin in the world for people on fixed incomes. But those on Social Security wouldn’t have to worry, because it would simply be adjusted for inflation. It would harm those few remaining people retired on defined benefit plans. Those are all but gone, so we wouldn’t have to worry about them for long. And for the time being, we could help them out too. (Although note: they would get Social Security too, so we aren’t dealing with poor people.)

It’s the Rich, Stupid!

So the Federal Reserve is working for the rich. Remember that because it’s scary. Regardless of who controls the government — Democrats, Republicans, or a mix — the Federal Reserve is there to make sure that the rich stay rich. Yes, it’s true that if there are more liberals on the Fed OMC, things are better for the people. Lael Brainard, for example, is fighting the good fight. But as an institution, the Federal Reserve is not on the side of the people.

Economy Isn’t Doing As Well as Fed Thinks

But what’s interesting about this rate rise is that it shows that the Fed thinks the economy is doing just fine. I hear the words “full employment” a lot. This is something that I just don’t understand. The employment-to-population ration for people 25 to 54 years old was 79.9 percent right before the economic crash of 2008. (It was 80.3 percent a year earlier.) Today it is 78.3 percent. There’s no reason to think that 1.6 percent fewer Americans want to work than they did nine years ago. Everyone’s focused on the 4.7 percent U-3 unemployment rate. But clearly, it isn’t taking everything into account. Unemployment could go way down before inflation starts accelerating.

Of even greater concern is that the Fed doesn’t seem to be concerned about what’s going on in Washington. We all know that the Republicans’ new healthcare law is estimated to make 24 million people uninsured compared to those who have insurance now. But there has been very little talk about its broader economic effects. The truth is that it could cause catastrophic damage to the healthcare and insurance industries. And this alone could throw the world economy into recession. That’s one bill — one that doesn’t even deal with the economy explicitly.

Danger of Rate Rise

A problem with the Fed’s eagerness to raise rates has always been that the risks are unsymmetrical. If they don’t raise rates, inflation might tick up a bit. But more important, the Fed would have no difficulty dealing with this problem (in as much as it would be a problem). If they do raise rates and the economy falls into recession, the Fed is pretty much impotent (as we have seen over the last 9 years).

Now I’m not saying that this interest rate increase is going to hurt the economy. But I do think that anything the Republicans manage to do in terms of the economy will be to make things much worse for working people. But the Fed is just sitting back, acting like everything is just like it has been. It isn’t. Of course, the rich will be fine. And that is, after all, the only thing that the Fed truly cares about.

Glibertarians, MRAs, Alt-Right, Oh My!

Libertarian Party: Just Kidding, We're Republicans!We’ve been getting a lot of comments, apparently, from the crew that runs Glibertarians.com. Most of the comments have made me rethink my definition of glibertarians: people who don’t think about politics but have a vaguely libertarian mindset. I can see how the word does apply to people who think themselves libertarian but who have never taken it seriously enough to learn about it from even a basic philosophical perspective. I see that I’ve generally been mixing with a better class of libertarian in recent years. The comments are so filled with talking points that’s they’re hard to argue against because the people don’t take the political issues seriously. And looking at the site, there’s little more than a patina of libertarianism.

I did receive one reasonably thoughtful comment. I started replying and eventually decided to turn it into this post. So this is a mishmash of thoughts, but it does get to the heart of why talking to these people is a waste of time. How do you teach astronomy to people who not only believe the sun circles the Earth nightly, but who don’t even realize that this is an assumption. And I am getting tired of dealing with people of all political stripes who have no recognition of how thoroughly American propaganda has defined their world view. I don’t take it as given that private ownership of land is right. Thus it’s kind of hard to have conversations with people who think the only proper role for government is to protect a principle I find debatable.

The Liberal Straw-Man

What’s most annoying is being straw-manned constantly — having to answer for the beliefs of mythical hate-radio-created “liberals” who despise freedom and love big government. The whole thing started off with an exchange with someone who goes by the name of Sloopyinca who knew, despite my repeated denial, that I was in favor of luxury taxes. Why? Apparently because it’s the only example anyone on Glibertarians.com can come up with to illustrate the evil unintended consequences of taxation. It’s an extreme example, but like libertarians big and small, all these people assume I don’t know much about economics.

One person pointed out that taxes on one income group can affect others. Yes, I know the economy is complex and that a tax on one group is not limited to that one group. A related example of this is the EITC; estimates indicate that about one-quarter of it goes to employers because it allows them to suppress wages. Economics is very complicated indeed. That alone should stop people from being libertarian. Libertarianism is based on the most basic — “I got a B- in Econ 101” — level of economic thinking.

Deficits and Debt

However, there are many things that our Glibertarian.com friends think that just aren’t true. For example, “Deficits cause inflation.” This is one that most people find irresistible. It seems to be obvious: the economy has a certain value. Thus, the value of money is that value divided by the total amount of money that exists. If you “print” more money, the money has to be worth less. There are several problems with this. One is that the US government doesn’t print money. It does what all individuals and businesses do when they need extra money: it borrows it. This is done by issuing bonds, which are bought; the government then pays them back.

The reason deficits can be bad is because they can crowd out private borrowing. But this is only true when the economy is running at full capacity. This pretty much never happens anymore because of our excessive level of inequality. Regardless, it’s a mistake to get too focused on the deficit. If the government wanted to pay off its entire debt, it could just sell off some its many resources — or tax more.

Discussions of the deficit are almost always disingenuous — whether from the left or the right. People use them to justify cutting government expenditures that they don’t like. We should just talk about that and end the nonsense. My problem with military spending has nothing to do with the deficit. And conservatives’ problem with Medicaid has nothing to do with the deficit.

Interest Burden

Regardless, if there is a problem with government debt, it is the interest burden. And right now, the interest burden is less than half of what it was when we had a budget surplus in 2000.[1] There was nothing to worry about then and there is nothing to worry about now. Most people who have purchased a home have debts that are far greater than their annual salary, but they don’t get upset about them. They are simply focused on whether they can make the payments.

Taxation

Another issue brought up was that regardless of the various changes to the top tax rate, the average rate of federal tax revenue has been about 18 percent. This is pretty much right. The total federal tax rate as a percent of GDP has bounced around between about 16 and 20 percent with an average of roughly 18 percent. What this has to do with anything, I’m not sure. I think the implication is that I think we can fix our funding needs by soaking the rich. Like the luxury tax, this is not my position.

But there is something interesting about our tax system: it isn’t fair; it is managed by and for the rich. They have a low baseline and the Republicans might decrease it a little and the Democrats might increase it a little. I think our federal tax rate should be higher, but more than that, I think what we get for our tax dollars should be better. Despite spending as much on our military as almost every other nation on Earth combined, we are told we don’t spend enough, and that we are in great danger. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands die early because we don’t provide healthcare for everyone (this is usually justified by the “fact” that we just can’t afford it).

Local Government

Unlike most libertarians, I’m interested in taxes (and laws in general) at the state and local level, where the rich have even more power and where taxes are actually regressive. But libertarians are mostly laser-focused on federal taxes. Libertarians talk about the rich like they are some poor minority group that needs to be coddled. There are libertarians (I used to be one) who criticize the government because it is corrupt and helps the rich at the expense of the rest of the country. But this is a tiny minority. Most libertarians exhibit an almost religious admiration for the rich. And this is why they fit right in with the Republicans.

Let’s look at Rand Paul for a moment. Is he a libertarian when it comes to drugs? No. He’s for the legalization of cannabis, but not drugs that he deems too dangerous. That isn’t a libertarian position; that’s a paternal position that is simply on the liberal side of American politics. Like all prominent libertarians, tax cuts are his top priority.

My Own Liberty

I care a great deal about liberty, but taxes have never been a major impediment to my liberty — and I say that as a successful freelance writer and editor who pays a lot of money in taxes. (In 2011, I paid a higher percentage of my income as federal tax than Mitt Romney — and 2011 wasn’t a very good year for me.)

When it comes to regulation, it has always been the local government that’s been my biggest pain — not the federal government that libertarians love to claim is so bad. In general, liberty is harmed far more often by the local than federal government. (And don’t get me started about the ways that the private sector decreases my liberty.)

But libertarians always tell me local government is better. Why is that? Part of it is the neo-confederate roots of American libertarianism. But regardless, the belief that local government is necessarily better than federal government is not based on evidence; it’s just a faith-based belief. It seems like local governments would be more responsive to their citizens. But I don’t think that much matters when it is so much easier for the rich buy off the local government.

Libertarians vs Glibertarians

I still find it interesting to discuss politics with serious libertarians. But the people at Glibertarians.com are not interesting. I fear it is mostly due to ignorance. In their About page, they claim, “America would do well to return to the ideals of our founders as they pertain to our government’s relationship to us.” Really? They were men who disagreed about just about everything. And one of their prime ideals was that dark skinned people were not only inferior, but so inferior that they should be considered property.

So it is hardly surprising that the people who hang out on the site would not understand much about politics and economics except in as much as they justified their existing faith-based beliefs. The more thoughtful ones might eventually get past their glib approach to politics. But I rather doubt it. The more I look at it, I see it’s more MRA and alt-right than it is libertarian.

Glibertarian? MRA? Alt-Right?!

When this whole deluge of Glibertarians.com comments started, it was Sloopyinca, telling me, “You know nothing of glibertarians.” I guess that’s true in as far Glibertarians.com doesn’t seem to know what libertarians are. Or maybe this is always what libertarians were. Everything else is affect. It was always just an intellectual facade covering frightened white guys who can’t deal with a changing world.

Afterword

As always, I’m interested in comments. But I’d be especially interested to see comments from Glibertarians that have something to say other than repetitions of your usual talking points. You might even — Shock! — engage with the material. You could respond to the fact that poor people are taxed more than rich people at the state level. Or you could explain how the liberty that is created by public libraries is more than canceled by people having to pay taxes to support them. Or you could show how monopsony in labor markets doesn’t make them unfair. I don’t plan to respond to anyone, so this is your perfect chance to show that your support of “glibertarianism” is something more than just a sociopathic hatred of the weak and a general lack of empathy.


[1] Note that this graph stops at 2013. The only ones I could find with more up-to-date data showed that the interest burden has actually gone down since 2013. But I didn’t use them because they were focused on their own models that show that the interest burden will rise sharply in the year ahead. These same models have been predicting this same thing for the last 8 years. The truth is that as the economy improves, the interest burden should increase. This is not a bad thing and certainly is nothing to panic about.

Obamacare Replacement Will Take Insurance From 24 Million CBO Says

Thích Quảng Đức Self-Immolation - Republican Obamacare Insurance ReplacementHouse Republicans’ proposal to rewrite federal health-care law would more than reverse the gains the Affordable Care Act has made in the number of Americans with health insurance, while curbing the federal deficit, according to a widely-anticipated forecast by congressional budget analysts.

The analysis, released late Monday afternoon by the Congressional Budget Office, predicts that 24 million fewer people would have health coverage over the coming decade, nearly doubling the share of Americans who are uninsured from 10 to 19 percent. But the GOP legislation, which has been speeding through House committees since it was introduced a week ago, would lower the deficit by $337 billion during that time, primarily by lessening spending on Medicaid and government aid to help people buy health plans on their own.

The report predicted that premiums would be 15 percent to 20 percent higher in the first year compared with the Affordable Care Act and 10 percent lower on average after 2026. By and large, older Americans would pay “substantially” more and younger Americans less, the report said.

The 37-page report provides the most tangible evidence to date of the human and fiscal impact of the House GOP’s American Health Care Act. It also undermines President Trump’s pledge that no Americans would lose coverage under a Republican remake of the ACA…

Democrats used the report’s finding to continue attacking the House GOP plan. “The CBO score shows just how empty the president’s promises, that everyone will be covered and costs will go down, have been,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles E Schumer (D-NY). “This should be a looming stop sign for the Republicans repeal effort.”

Specifically, the analysis predicts that the number of people without health coverage would rise to 52 million by 2026, compared with 28 million if the ACA remains intact. That erosion would mean that fewer than one in five US residents would be uninsured by 2026 — compared to one in 10 uninsured now and one in six who were uninsured before the ACA was enacted.

The reduction would result from three factors. A provision rescinding the penalty imposed on the uninsured would prompt many Americans to drop their health plans. After that, tax credits that are less generous than current subsidies would make insurance unaffordable to many more. Finally, some states may undo the expansion of their Medicaid programs…

The measure derives most of its budget savings through cuts to Medicaid, while nearly all of its cost comes from the proposal’s system of tax credits, which would replace the ACA’s federal insurance subsidies.

While the deficit would be lower, the analysis says, the legislation also would reduce federal revenue by $592 billion by 2026 by repealing several taxes that the ACA created to help pay for more people to get insurance — notably taxes on high-income Americans, hospitals. and health insurers.

“I would hope that this would make the Republicans say ‘we can’t do this,'” said Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), a member of Democratic leadership.

“Twenty-four million people lose their coverage, it is total chaos to the country and I hope they pause, say ‘This is not what we should be doing,’ and move on.” …

The Affordable Care Act has increased coverage by 20 million to 22 million — almost half of those through the insurance markets the law created for people who cannot get affordable coverage through a job, and the rest through an expansion of Medicaid in 31 states and the District of Columbia.

According to the report, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured in 2026, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under the current law…

The estimates projected a significant drop in Medicaid enrollment. Next year, the forecast says, about 5 million fewer people would be on Medicaid. By 2026, the program’s rolls would shrink by nearly 15 million — almost one in four of the 68 million currently in the program.

The CBO also predicted substantial disparities in the effect the legislation would have on insurance premiums for younger versus older consumers.

If the GOP plan is enacted, a 21-year-old making $68,200 would pay an average of $1,450 for a year’s worth of insurance premiums after the new tax credits, compared with $5,100 under current law.

On the other hand, the cost of a year’s worth of premiums would stay about the same for a 64-year-old at the same income level. For a 64-year-old making $26,500, the cost would rise sharply from $1,700 to $14,600…

Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) recalled Trump’s promise that the healthcare plan would insure everyone.

“President Trump said that he wants as many people covered as under Obamacare,” Cassidy said. “He said that healthcare should be affordable. If there’s 14 million people losing insurance — of course it’s concerning. I try to avoid hyperbole and adjectives, but it’s concerning.”

–Amy Goldstein, Elise Viebeck, Kelsey Snell, and Mike DeBonis
Obamacare Revision Would Reduce Insured Numbers by 24 Million, CBO Projects

Bitcoin Drops 22 Percent for No Good Reason

Bitcoin Drops 22 Percent for No Good ReasonThe value of bitcoins plunged more than 15 percent on Friday afternoon after the Securities and Exchange Commission rejected an application to create the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin. The proposal would have made it easier for ordinary investors to buy bitcoins, but the SEC is worried that these investors could be cheated in the largely unregulated Bitcoin marketplace.

The ruling has been closely watched in the Bitcoin world. A favorable ruling would have given the cryptocurrency a stamp of approval from an influential regulator, and it also could have sparked a surge in Bitcoin’s price as it provided an easier way for people to invest in this exotic new asset class…

The proposed Bitcoin ETF was the brainchild of Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, twin brothers who once sued Mark Zuckerberg for allegedly stealing the idea behind Facebook from them when they were all students at Harvard. After settling that lawsuit for millions of dollars worth of Facebook stock, the brothers began investing in Bitcoin startups. They announced plans to create a Bitcoin ETF in 2013, and their proposal has been working its way through the SEC ever since.

But the SEC wasn’t impressed with the proposal. The law requires the SEC to make sure that a newly traded asset existed in a well-regulated market that adequately protects people from manipulation and fraud. But the SEC saw little evidence that these conditions were met. Bitcoin is primarily traded in unregulated markets located overseas, especially in China, and as a result, the price of bitcoins is extremely volatile. In the SEC’s view, Bitcoin exchanges are not yet mature enough to justify opening them to the general public…

The ruling hammered bitcoin’s value. In the minutes after it was published, the value of one bitcoin fell from $1,290 to less than $1,000. As I write this, it’s back up to $1,100, about 15 percent below its value before the ruling was announced…

–Timothy B Lee
Why Bitcoin Lost 15 Percent of Its Value in a Few Minutes

No, Libertarians Don’t Agree With Me About Some Things

LibertariansSince the “glibertarians” (that is: libertarians who call themselves glibertarians) noticed Friday’s article, I started thinking about libertarians again. There’s one thing that especially annoys me about libertarians: the claim that they agree with liberals on half the issues. That is to say, libertarians might be totally against taxes and such, but they agree on social issues. They also agree about war. This is hogwash.

Let’s discuss war first. Libertarians claim that they are against the war machine. In most ways, libertarians are stuck in the 18th century when having a voluntary militia could keep a country safe, as long as it didn’t have any major resources that a large empire wanted. That’s just not true anymore. So if libertarians ever got their utopia, they’d need a great big military to protect it.

Property Rights Lead to War

Think about how focused libertarians are on property rights. There’s pretty much no level of government that they aren’t in favor of when it comes to protecting those rights. Well, when it comes to the military, the situation is even more intense. After all, what would you not do to protect your utopia?

There is, of course, disagreement among libertarians on this point. They can be roughly divided into two camps: those who have thought about it and those who haven’t. Those who have thought about it, understand that they will have to protect their utopia and that it won’t be cheap. Those who haven’t thought about it push fantasies about how libertarianism requires a change in the way people think.

I’ve had many conversations with the latter type of libertarian. I point out that there will always be some Genghis Khans around who think that the best way to get ahead in life is to just take what they want. So libertarians have to protect against that. And if they think they can fend off such an attack with a volunteer army funded by voluntary taxes, I have a whole herd of unicorns for sale at a great price!

So libertarians may be anti-war in theory, in practice, they are very much for it. And there is no distinction because “they crossed our boarders” and “they interfered with our supply chains.”

Social Issues

Social issues is the primary idiocy of libertarians. Let’s look at this from the issue of drugs. There are a lot of people who are libertarians because they want their drug of choice (usually cannabis) to be legal. But libertarians always caucus with Republicans. Which political party has moved toward more sensible drug policy? Not the Republicans. It has been the Democrats — and not for libertarian reasons.

So on a practical level, why would these people not support the Democrats? Because the libertarians talk a good game? When a libertarian manages to get into Congress, they show themselves to not really care about the liberty of being able to put whatever substance you want in your body. That kind of liberty is way down on list. At the top of the list, it’s always the same: tax cuts — almost always highly regressive.

Libertarian Answer to Bigotry: Nothing

But let’s look the rights of different “races” and the LGBT community. These are illusory. They are much like the Republican’s new healthcare bill: you have the right to the best healthcare in the world — if you can afford it. Since there wouldn’t be laws against discrimination, all these groups would get would be platitudes like, “Racism is bad for business.”

Guess what? Racism isn’t bad for business in a country where about 30 percent of the people are explicitly racist. So libertarians don’t agree with liberals on social issues. Their ideas are just not to make any laws like, “You can’t run for president if you’re black or queer.” They don’t do anything else. In the libertarian utopia, we would have more public bigotry. Life would be harder for minority groups. How is that agreeing with liberals on social issues?

Really what libertarians are saying is, “I’m not racist!” There are a couple of issues there. One is that at this point, there is damned little difference between libertarians and neo-confederates. But the second is more important: who cares what you specifically believe; the system of government you are pushing would make bigotry worse.

Libertarians Don’t Agree With Liberals

Libertarians can live in their own little fantasy world built on top of a huge pile of unstated assumption with no concern for the practical effects of their policy prescriptions. But I do wish they would get off this arrogant kick of claiming that they are “economically conservative” and “socially liberal.” Libertarians are just conservatives who are smart enough to realize that “conservative” has been poisoned and now can be defined as “hateful bigot” for the vast majority of people.

Since libertarian policy would make intolerance toward minority groups worse, they don’t get to claim the liberal mantle when it comes to social issues.

Effects of Trump’s “Highly Successful” Yemen Raid

Yemen BoyAccording to residents of the village of al Ghayil, in Yemen’s al Bayda province, the first to die in the assault was 13-year-old Nasser al Dhahab. The house of his uncle, Sheikh Abdulraouf al Dhahab, and the building behind it, the home of 65-year-old Abdallah al Ameri and his son Mohammed al Ameri, 38, appeared to be the targets of the US forces, who called in air support as they were pinned down in a nearly hourlong firefight.

With the SEALs taking heavy fire on the lower slopes, attack helicopters swept over the hillside hamlet above. In what seemed to be blind panic, the gunships bombarded the entire village, striking more than a dozen buildings, razing stone dwellings where families slept, and wiping out more than 120 goats, sheep, and donkeys.

Three projectiles tore through the straw and timber roof of the home where Sinan slept. Cowering in a corner, Sinan’s mother, 30-year-old Fatim Saleh Mohsen, decided to flee the bombardment. Grabbing her 18-month-old son and ushering her terrified children into the narrow outdoor passageway between the tightly packed dwellings, she headed into the open. Over a week later, Sinan’s aunt Nadr al Ameri wept as she stood in the same room and recalled watching her sister run out the door into the darkness.

Nesma al Ameri, an elderly village matriarch who lost four family members in the raid, described how the attack helicopters began firing down on anything that moved. As she recounted the horror of what happened, Sinan tapped her on the arm. “No, no. The bullets were coming from behind,” the 5-year-old insisted, interrupting to demonstrate how he was shot at and his mother gunned down as they ran for their lives. “From here to here,” Sinan said, putting two fingers to the back of his head and drawing an invisible line to illustrate the direction of the bullet exiting her forehead. His mother fell to the ground next to him, still clutching his baby brother in her arms. Sinan kept running.

His mother’s body was found in the early light of dawn, the front of her head split open. The baby was wounded but alive. Sinan’s mother was one of at least six women killed in the raid, the first counterterrorism operation of the Trump administration, which also left 10 children under the age of 13 dead. “She was hit by the plane. The American plane,” explained Sinan. “She’s in heaven now,” he added with a shy smile, seemingly unaware of the enormity of what he had witnessed or, as yet, the impact of his loss. “Dog Trump,” declared Nesma, turning to the other women in the room for agreement. “Yes, the dog Trump,” they agreed.

–Iona Craig
Death in al Ghayil (The Yemen Raid)

NASA Should Continue Studying Global Warming

Michael Hiltzik - NASA and Global WarmingIn the current political climate, the biggest threat is to Earth science, which is increasingly devoted to climate change. It may not be a coincidence that conservatives in Congress have been systematically trying cut NASA’s Earth Science budget in favor of planetary exploration, albeit unmanned exploration. They argue that the goal is to refocus NASA on its traditional mission. But that’s a smokescreen, because research in climate science has become a major part of NASA’s mission. They’re really displaying their hostility to research that could undermine the fortunes of their patrons, the fossil fuel industry. If Trump’s call for manned planetary exploration is another puff of that smokescreen, it would hardly be surprising.

Sending humans into space would give Americans a sense of mission and grandeur, but that’s mostly a sign of civic immaturity. Take the same sums and spend them on curing disease — whether the biological malady of cancer or the social maladies of poverty and hunger — and pride will surely follow. Keep the astronauts at home, and there will be much more money available to send robots farther out than humans could ever go, and to bring back immeasurably more knowledge.

–Michael Hiltzik
Trump’s Call for Human Space Exploration Is Hugely Wasteful and Pointless

Glibertarians Are More Dangerous Than Libertarians

GlibertariansSome years ago, a reader rediscovered me. He said that he was glad to see that I had become more serious in my political writing, and noted that before I had written from a “glibertarian” perspective. That was the first time that I’d heard the term used. And I don’t think it was accurate. I think I wrote from a libertarian perspective. With very few exceptions, libertarian thinking is simplistic. That was definitely true of me. But “glibertarian”? I don’t really think so.

There are lots of definitions of “glibertarian.” Definition Of claims: “pejorative used by libertarians to describe those who use libertarian rhetoric but will not follow the philosophy to the end [and by] liberals to describe those who use libertarian rhetoric and will follow the philosophy to the end.” This is silly. It just means a glib (or shallow) libertarian. I’m sure one can find examples, but I’ve never known anyone to use “glibertarian” to describe a hardcore libertarian.

A Country of Glibertarians

America is largely a country of glibertarians: people who have a generalized notion that the government is bad, without much of a clue of all the things that the government does from them. If a glibertarian thought a little more, they would be a libertarian. If they thought a lot more, they’d move past the “one weird trick” fallacy for fixing society. In general, I think more thought leads more nuance — to the idea societies are complicated and the best ones combine different aspects of different ideologies.

The problem is that most glibertarians never move even to the libertarian level. So they have vague anti-government ideas, which makes them perfect marks for conservatives. Note that conservatives in America love to talk about small government, but they aren’t actually for it. They are just against government programs that help the weak, poor, and even the middle class. They are all for programs that help the rich. And a big part of that is having a huge military. This is why regardless of the state of the economy, the US government debt has always gone up when Republicans were in charge since Ronald Reagan:

US Government Debt as Percent of GDP

Now I don’t much care about the debt — especially when we are in the middle of a recession. (So Obama gets a pass, but George W Bush does not.) But glibertarians do! They have a vague idea that government is bad so cutting it back will be good. There are a lot of glibertarians right now just waking up to the fact that Obamacare was a government program that allowed them to have health insurance. If they weren’t so reflexive in their belief that the government is generally bad, they wouldn’t be such easy marks for the Republicans and their dishonest rhetoric.

Glibertarians Don’t Think Much

This isn’t to say that glibertarians hate the government. I know conservative and liberal glibertarians. And it’s sad. These are the people that have allowed the United States to make life so much harder for normal working people than it is in other “advanced” economies. And this is why glibertarians are more dangerous than libertarians.

In general, libertarians are just screaming into the vacuum. They are dangerous in that the rich use them to come up with reasons why yet another tax cut will make us all better off. The ultimate “one weird trick”: tax cuts for the rich! But mostly, libertarians don’t matter — or they wouldn’t if it weren’t for all the glibertarians who fall for this rhetoric. Note: there are vastly more glibertarians than libertarians.

The big issue is that it is hard to engage with glibertarians. They don’t have much in the way of a political philosophy. They don’t take politics seriously. I can talk to a serious libertarian and find common ground. I can even get them to rethink some of their assumptions. But I can’t with glibertarians. They don’t think they have any assumptions. Their political beliefs come via osmosis, and they don’t even think of them as beliefs but rather “common sense.”

When Glibertarians Wake Up

They don’t think about their politics serious — until they get fired from their corporate or manufacturing job when they hit 50 and find they can’t get healthcare. Then glibertarians can quickly learn that what they thought before wasn’t just “common sense.” And that it’s all a lot more complicated when things aren’t going well in your own life. It’s called empathy — it comes to some suddenly.

If anyone has any ideas on how to talk to glibertarians while they are still doing well, let me know. I’ve come to think that it’s hopeless, which is why I’m come to think our political system is hopeless. I hope I’m wrong. Please: try to cheer me up.

How to Protect California’s Healthcare System

Nicholas Bagley - California's Healthcare MandateBefore health reform, 1 out of every 6 Californians was uninsured. By 2016, only 7.4% lacked coverage.

Because it expanded its Medicaid program, California has provided insurance to its most vulnerable residents. An additional 1.6 million people get coverage through California’s exchange, where premiums are among the cheapest in the country and the average rate increase for 2017 was just 5%, a strong sign of a stable market…

All of this progress is now in jeopardy, and even congressional Republicans seem to understand that their Obamacare “fix” is folly. That’s why the bill delays the harshest spending cuts until 2020, when the 2018 midterm elections are behind them.

But the Republican bill would set chaos in motion because it would immediately eliminate the individual mandate — that is, the tax penalty imposed on those who don’t purchase insurance. Without that mandate, some healthy people will choose to forgo coverage, knowing they can always enroll later if they get sick. Those who keep their insurance will therefore be less healthy than average. Insurers will have to jack up their premiums to cover those sicker enrollees.

That means California’s stable market will start to teeter. Large premium spikes are likely; in some rural areas, insurers might pull out altogether. The Commonwealth Fund estimates that 1 out of 4 people on the exchanges would lose their coverage…

California has a shot at preventing that collapse, however, as do other states where Democrats are in charge, including New York, Connecticut, Washington, and Oregon. For 2018 and 2019, almost every part of Obamacare except for the individual mandate will remain intact. California can patch that hole by replacing the individual mandate at the state level. Call it the Golden State Mandate.

–Nicholas Bagley
The GOP Obamacare Replacement Would Help the Rich, Hurt the Poor and Unleash Chaos

Trump Will Not Keep Base Happy With Healthcare

Jennifer Rubin - Trump Would Keep Base Happy With Obamacare ReplacementUntil Tuesday, President Trump and Stephen K Bannon did a good job of keeping their base happy. They threw out red meat on immigration, ruthlessly attacked the press, cooked up an anti-Barack Obama conspiracy (to replace the birther conspiracy) and continued to talk tough on trade. If his actions and rhetoric horrified all Democrats, most independents, some thinking Republicans and the press, he did not care. Keep the base happy, stick to the nativist, protectionist Bannon hymnal.

Then on Tuesday, Trump embraced the GOP healthcare bill, which will keep or even expand the “administrative state” and which has been vilified by conservatives. He tweeted, “Our wonderful new Healthcare Bill is now out for review and negotiation. ObamaCare is a complete and total disaster — is imploding fast!” Trump also said after a meeting with members, “We’re going to do something that’s great. And I am proud to support the replacement plan released by the House of Representatives.”

Now, whatever you think of the merits, it won’t pass as currently designed. Moreover, it is especially harmful to Trump’s lower-income, older Rust Belt supporters.

The Kaiser Foundation has a user-friendly map and calculator which shows which states (most of them) and which counties specifically would pay more under the GOP American Health Care Act and which pay more under the Affordable Care Act. In almost every single county in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, a 60-year-old with $30,000 in income would pay more for coverage… Congratulations, House Republicans and Trump, you’re on the side of rich New England millennials. Seriously, this would be a tragedy for the “forgotten” Americans and hence a political disaster for Trump.

From a political and policy standpoint, the smart move would have been to deplore the bill and tell the House to go back to work. Instead, Trump tied himself to the mast of a sinking ship…

Democrats considering a run in 2020 must be delighted. “Trump’s no friend of the working man,” they will claim. “He’s just as mean-spirited as every other Republican,” they will say. Democrats will hang the GOP healthcare bill around the necks of Republican incumbents. GOP voters who will be enraged [that] the party did not do what it promised may sit home, or vote for challengers…

I find it hard to believe that in the end Trump won’t hang the House Republicans out to dry. (That would please Bannon, who has had a temporary truce with [Paul] Ryan.) He will need to distance himself from the impending disaster. We’ll have to wait and see how he does it.

–Jennifer Rubin
How Trump Blew It on Healthcare

Afterword

Do check out the KFF interactive graph. It’s amazing. Compare how the the House bill will affect people making $20,000 per year with people making $75,000 per year. This will not make Trump’s base happy — assuming they notice.

What Obamacare Repeal Was Always About

Obamacare's Original Sin: Taxing the RichOver at The Hill, Naomi Jagoda wrote, House GOP Bill Repeals ObamaCare Taxes — With One Exception. The “one exception” is the “Cadillac tax.” This is the tax on employer provided healthcare that is considered too good. So if you are in a union that still has a bit of power and get a good healthcare benefit, you get taxed. It’s interesting, but hardly surprising, that this is the only tax that the Republicans thought was worth keeping; it was the only one that affected the middle class.

Now, I don’t have a problem with taxing employer-provided healthcare. I think all such benefits should be taxed. Maybe if they were, we would have a sane — non-job-based — health insurance system. But I see no reason why we should single out some plans and not others. Furthermore, I don’t see this as a big issue. If there was one tax in Obamacare that should have been eliminated, it was this “Cadillac tax.” But the Republicans think just the opposite. Their support for taxes is exactly in opposition to the wealth of the people paying the tax. So if it’s a tax on the poor, they are fine with it; if it’s a tax on the rich, it is the worst thing since slavery, and cannot be accepted.

Why Republicans Hate Obamacare

Ezra Klein wrote, The GOP Health Bill Doesn’t Know What Problem It’s Trying to Solve. But I think he’s being coy. He knows better — he even says as much. On its surface the American Health Care Act (AHCA) is just a way for the Republicans to say that they repealed and replaced Obamacare. But you have to look deeper and ask the question, “Why did they hate Obamacare?” It wasn’t just that a Democratic president passed it. That’s especially true after Obama won re-election in 2012.

As I’ve written about in the past, the Republicans really don’t care about anything in Obamacare except that it taxes the rich. All that stuff about destroying freedom and high premiums and anything else that Republicans ever say publicly is just propaganda for a prols. They hate Obamacare now and they always have simply because it raised taxes on the rich.

One of the taxes is particularly hilarious: medical devices. This is a tax that was created to offset the extra money that medical device manufacturers would make because of extra money that the government would spend on their products. The industry has been whining about it ever since. Given that the AHCA will end up covering far fewer people, this tax should probably be lowered. In fact, given how incompetent the Republicans are and the possibility that they will manage to effectively destroy our healthcare economy, maybe we should get rid of the tax entirely. Regardless, this isn’t the tax that most upsets the Republicans.

It’s Taxing the Rich, Stupid!

The big deal for the Republicans is the tax on incomes over $200,000. It isn’t much — 0.9 percentage points. But if you make $1.2 million a year, that’s $9,000 that you could use to, I don’t know, pay the year’s rent for a family of four living in a rural area. Or a month’s payment on the yacht. You know: a lot of money if you’re poor and almost nothing if you make a million dollars a year.

But as far as the Republicans are concerned, taxes on the rich were Obamacare’s original sin. And if you scoffed at me in the past when I’ve said that, all you have to do is look at this original draft of the AHCA. All the taxes that affect the rich are gone. The one tax that affects the middle class somehow hangs on.

Like any good Villager, Naomi Jagoda tries to justify it, of course, “By keeping that tax, albeit after a delay, Republicans are trying to ensure that their bill will not add to the deficit after 10 years.” But the Republicans are trying to jam this bill through Congress before the CBO gets its hands on it. They already know their bill will increase the deficit. And they don’t care. They just care that the rich pay less in taxes. That’s what’s all about. That’s what it’s always been all about.

Trump Is the Perpetrator of McCarthyism

Jonathan Chait - Trump and McCarthyismThat we do have evidence of Americans having actual contact with Russians — quite a lot of evidence about quite a lot of Americans in Trump’s orbit — ought to be a clue that “McCarthyism” is not the most apt analogy. Indeed, it is a much closer description for the methods used by Trump himself.

Since “McCarthyism” means different things to different people, a brief reminder of just what Wisconsin senator Joseph McCarthy did may be helpful. During and after World War II, conservative Republicans considered Franklin Roosevelt’s domestic and foreign policies socialistic and un-American. Conservative critics linked the two criticisms together: Roosevelt had enlarged the role of the federal government, and he and his successor, Harry Truman, had cooperated with the Soviets during and after the war. At times his coalition included some communist spies, a fact that gave enough surface plausibility for McCarthy to claim that the New Deal under Roosevelt and Truman was fundamentally a communist conspiracy.

McCarthyism was a series of specific lies in service of the larger conceptual lie. The specific lies insisted that the federal government was honeycombed with Soviet spies who were colluding openly with the Democratic Party. The larger lie was an attempt to erase the distinction between communists and New Deal Democrats, whose points of contact were short-lived and minimal, and by the postwar era had grown deeply estranged as Harry Truman confronted the USSR, McCarthy and his allies, of course, viewed it just the other way around. To them, the partnership between the New Deal and communism was a larger truth, which justified McCarthy’s smaller lies.

There are certainly some parallels between the charges made by McCarthy then and the charges made against Trump now. Both involve accusations of improper ties to Russia, and both rely on parsing evidence that is not wholly public. And it is also true that, if you search the internet, you can find some unfounded or even silly claims being made against Trump. This is a big country, after all.

That said, the differences overwhelm the similarities. The differences begin with the factual basis. If McCarthy had limited his accusations to cases where he had some solid basis for suspicion — like Alger Hiss, a State Department employee who really was a Soviet spy — then “McCarthyism” would not be a word. To apply the term “McCarthyism” to any suspicion of hidden or inappropriate relations with a hostile foreign power is to dilute the term beyond any useful meaning. The case for concern about Trump’s relationship with Russia does not rely on conspiracy thinking. There is an extensive public record.

It is the parallels between McCarthy and Trump, rather than McCarthy and Trump’s adversaries, that are most compelling. As some have noted, Trump was literally mentored by Roy Cohn, McCarthy’s right-hand man. Trump, like McCarthy, alleges the existence of a shadowy cabal of government bureaucrats to which he attributes near unlimited power. Representative Steve King’s plea for Trump to “purge leftists from executive branch before disloyal, illegal, and treasonist acts sink us” is indistinguishable from McCarthy’s plan…

Trump, like McCarthy, uses reckless accusations to whip his supporters into a frenzy and disorient his foes. A White House official, speaking to Mike Allen, inadvertently let slip Trump’s most McCarthyite quality: his indifference to truth. “The president just has a great nose for these things,” the official told Allen. “It’s the bureaucratic leaks — the deep state — that bother him most. Even if it turns out not to be true that they surveilled Trump Tower, he will have a very good point to make about the level of sabotage coming from Obama holdovers.” The giveaway is “even if it turns out not to be true.” Trump didn’t float this scenario as a possibility, he asserted it as fact. But like every conspiracy theory he has floated — from Obama’s allegedly forged birth certificate to Rafael Cruz’s alleged role in the Kennedy assassination — the facts of the case have no relevance to Trump.

–Jonathan Chait
Donald Trump Is the Perpetrator of McCarthyism, Not the Victim of It