The Real Purpose of the Greek Bailout

Mark BlythThe roots of the crisis lie far away from Greece; they lie in the architecture of European banking. When the euro came into existence in 1999, not only did the Greeks get to borrow like the Germans, everyone’s banks got to borrow and lend in what was effectively a cheap foreign currency. And with super-low rates, countries clamoring to get into the euro, and a continent-wide credit boom underway, it made sense for national banks to expand private lending as far as the euro could reach.

So European banks’ asset footprints (loans and other assets) expanded massively throughout the first decade of the euro, especially into the European periphery. Indeed, according the Bank of International Settlements, by 2010 when the crisis hit, French banks held the equivalent of nearly 465 billion euros in so-called impaired periphery assets, while German banks had 493 billion on their books. Only a small part of those impaired assets were Greek, and here’s the rub: Greece made up two percent of the eurozone in 2010, and Greece’s revised budget deficit that year was 15 percent of the country’s GDP — that’s 0.3 percent of the eurozone’s economy. In other words, the Greek deficit was a rounding error, not a reason to panic. Unless, of course, the folks holding Greek debts, those big banks in the eurozone core, had, over the prior decade, grown to twice the size (in terms of assets) of — and with operational leverage ratios (assets divided by liabilities) twice as high as — their “too big to fail” American counterparts, which they had done. In such an over-levered world, if Greece defaulted, those banks would need to sell other similar sovereign assets to cover the losses. But all those sell contracts hitting the market at once would trigger a bank run throughout the bond markets of the eurozone that could wipe out core European banks.

Clearly something had to be done to stop the rot, and that something was the troika program for Greece, which succeeded in stopping the bond market bank run — keeping the Greeks in and the yields down — at the cost of making a quarter of Greeks unemployed and destroying nearly a third of the country’s GDP. Consequently, Greece is now just 1.7 percent of the eurozone, and the standoff of the past few months has been over tax and spending mixes of a few billion euros. Why, then, was there no deal for Greece, especially when the IMF’s own research has said that these policies are at best counterproductive, and how has such a small economy managed to generate such a mortal threat to the euro?

—Mark Blyth
A Pain in the Athens

Working More Isn’t Necessarily Better

Jeb BushDid Jeb Bush really mean to say that Americans need to work more hours? It’s hard to say. But as Brian Beutler noted, that interpretation goes along with his policy ideas — and that of the whole of the conservative movement. It is certainly true that a big conservative argument against the progressive income tax is that it remove the incentive for people to work more. And certainly requiring overtime pay makes employers less likely to allow employees to work more than 40 hours per week. Or, as Beutler pointed out, “Supplement people’s incomes, and they have less incentive to work.” So get rid of the unions! Get rid of the minimum wage! We want people to have a real “incentive” work!

You may remember that there was a big conservative dust up when it turned out that some people were choosing to work less because of Obamacare. That was actually a good thing. What has happening was that people who had been working a lot of hours just to get health insurance, were lowering their hours. These weren’t people who were involuntarily working part time; these were people who were thrilled to be working less. Hooray for Obamacare! But of course conservatives were angry as though individuals should work more hours just to keep the economy pumping. (Not to mention that the slack could be taken up with companies hiring more people.)

So regardless of what Jeb Bush meant to say, he and the party he represents think that people should work more. But I can’t help but think of Greece. Conservatives all over the world think that the Greek people should pay for their past big spending ways. But here’s the thing: they are paying by not being allowed to work. Austerity is always that way, and it makes no sense at all. If a woman overspent last year, she would work more this year; she wouldn’t choose to work less.

People like Jeb Bush seem to think that people are unemployed just because they don’t feel like working. This is just not the way the economy works. And I don’t really believe that anyone actually thinks it does. I know there are certain conservative economists who claim that it does, but that is clear apologetics. No serious person thinks that the 25% unemployment rate in 1930 was due to people just not wanting to work. But the truth is that we should all push for people working less.

Part of the problem that we have here in America is that those who do have jobs are pushed to work far too many hours. This means there is less work for people who don’t have jobs. This is something that Germany has been really good at. For one thing, Germans just don’t work as much as we do. Last year, Germans worked an average of 1,371 hours and we worked an average of 1,789. We work almost a third more hours than they do. But it’s generally true: we work more hours than people in most advanced economies. Even the Japanese work less than we do.

But what Germany is really good at is their work sharing program. In recessions, instead of laying a bunch of people off, people work fewer hours. The government makes up the difference — think of it as a special approach to unemployment. The economy doesn’t collapse on itself — thus reducing the impact of recessions. But most conservatives would see such things as un-American. For one thing, they reduce suffering. But for another, conservatives think everyone should work more and more and more. It’s curious, because the more you work, the less time you have for things that conservatives claim to value like the family.

This is something I commented on during the 2012 presidential race. It was claimed that Ann Romney was some kind of hero for staying home and caring for her family. And great for her! But the people who thought it was so great that she was home with the kids were the exact same people who thought that poor mothers ought to have to dump their kids at daycare and take the bus to some minimum wage job. So sure: Jeb Bush and the rest of the vile party he represents want the rest of us to work more hours — for less pay — so that the rich can capture an ever greater share of the economy. But that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

What Was the Point of the Greek Referendum?

What Was the Point of the Greek Referendum?I remember during the 1988 DNC, there was conflict. Jesse Jackson got almost 30% of the popular vote. Michael Dukakis did not intend to have Jackson be a major part of his campaign. And so there was a meeting between Jackson and Dukakis. And Jackson came out of the meeting talking about how they had had a substantial discussion about important issues. And it was pretty clear that what he got was nothing. He was putting on the best face in a bad and extremely embarrassing situation. I felt bad for him and I was a Dukakis supporter. Wasn’t there any way that all those smart people in the Democratic Party could come up with a better way to support the man that came in a very good second place? (Dukakis only got 42% of the vote.)

But I suspect that the idea among the Democratic elite was to hang Jackson out to dry. This was the proto-Sister Souljah moment. Liberals, it seems, can’t be taken seriously unless they they make a firm commitment to stand up against the black man. Or at least, that seems to be what elite opinion is in the Democratic Party. And now, I’m feeling the same thing about the situation in Greece. The whole thing strikes me as pathetic.

The Greek parliament just voted (narrowly) for Alexis Tsipras’ proposal to give the Troika… exactly what it wants. Oh, yes: there are some very small changes. This is pretty much the deal that Tsipras had wanted to get before the referendum: total capitulation with something — Anything! — he could use to save face. Who knows if the Troika will even give him what he’s asking for now. They seem instead to want him to do a Jesse Jackson: have him come out of a meeting and claim that everything is good because they had a substantial discussion about important issues.

But the whole thing seems bizarre. What Tsipras is pushing seems to be what he would have pushed if he had lost the referendum. Is that what he was expecting? Did he think that he would lose so that he could capitulate and it would be no big deal? Was the huge win last weekend actually a disappointment? Why did Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis resign? It really is looking as though Tsipras and the majority of Syriza are just a bunch of wimps who do not have the strength of their convictions.

And here’s the thing: I understand that doing what Greece is now doing is the least painful thing to do for the immediate future. But that’s the point! Yes, Greece can make another deal and limp along for another couple of years. If they are very lucky, they might get the unemployment rate down to the high teens. But more likely, they get the unemployment rate down one point or two — still in the mid-twenties. And yet they will still be just as indebted as they have been — maybe more so. There isn’t a time when the Troika says, “You’ve suffered enough! Now we’ll let your economy heal!” That’s not going to happen. It’s just going to be years and year and years of pain.

I think the whole world should be afraid of this. Right now I’m wondering that if a true leftist party like Syriza is so easily co-opted by the Troika, maybe it will take a far right party to get Greece out of this mess. And if I’m wondering that, you’ve got to be certain that a lot of Greeks are wondering the same thing. The current situation has got to have been the best thing that ever happened to Golden Dawn.

Anniversary Post: Burr–Hamilton Duel

Burr–Hamilton duelOn this day in 1804, the infamous Burr–Hamilton duel took place. I do think that Burr was a jerk. But it is hard not to side with him on this given that Hamilton apparently fiddled with the pistols to give them hair triggers. There is also the evidence that Hamilton wrote a letter the night before with the intention of making Burr look bad if Hamilton lost the duel. I rather think of the duel as being between John Cleese and Terry Jones of Monty Python’s Flying Circus. Jones (Burr) might be difficult and emotional, but he isn’t calculating like Cleese (Hamilton). Clearly the world needs both kinds of men, so they shouldn’t get in duels.

Earlier this year, I wrote about Steve King and his use of this duel:

You see, the founding fathers were men of honor. And his example? “It’s been 210 years since Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr fought a duel over honor.” Ah, yes: that honorable duel. And what was it over? Burr felt insulted by something that Hamilton had said. This was coming off Burr’s devastating loss to the almost unknown Morgan Lewis to become governor of New York in 1804. Burr thought Hamilton had helped Lewis, and he probably did. Regardless, the whole thing seems more like a squabble between mean girls in a suburban high school. Ah yes, honor!

So 211 years ago today, the mean girls had their fight. Hamilton died the following day. And Burr hardly covered himself with glory after the duel. What honorable men!

Bill Cosby and the Delusions of Powerful Men

Bill CosbyAt one time, I was trying to write some children’s nonfiction. It was a book about “nice guys” who “finished first.” Each chapter was a biography of someone who was very successful who was also known to be a good person — “nice guys” (and gals). The problem was that whenever I did enough research on a person to write about them, they turned out not to be so nice. The best example of this was Milton Hershey. He is widely praised for being decent to his employees, and for making his company town, Hershey, Pennsylvania, into the town that had no depression, because he kept everyone working.

The problem with Hershey was that his niceness was highly paternal. He was virulently anti-union. Why? You would think that he would be in favor of that. But he didn’t want workers to have rights and make demands. He saw them as children and himself as a benevolent father. There is no doubt that he would have been happier paying his employees more without a union than less with it. And this doesn’t make him much different than George Pullman — who no one mistakes for a teddy bear. I tend to think that Hershey never turned on his workers because he never had to. If things had been worse — if he hadn’t been able to sail to Cuba and be a high stakes gambler — things would have gone quite different for the people of Hershey, Pennsylvania.

The problem isn’t really with Hershey or Pullman or any of the many others like them. It is well known that power corrupts when it comes to government. But most people don’t see that it is just as true (maybe more so) when it comes to the private parts of the world — economic and not. The more power people get the more they abuse it. And that’s why I thought that Jenée Desmond-Harris’ article at Vox Wednesday was so amazing, Bill Cosby’s Disturbing Love of Power, From Race Rants to Drugging Women.

The standard response to the recent evidence that Cosby raped women via drugging is to think it shows a great deal of hypocrisy. Before these allegations became a big deal, Cosby was primarily know as a scold of the African American community. Gone was the silly and kind Dr Cliff Huxtable. Now it was this angry old man talking about how the black community was responsible for everything that was done to it. You know, “Five or six different children, same woman, eight, 10 different husbands or whatever, pretty soon you’re going to have to have DNA cards so you can tell who you’re making love to.” That kind of stuff.

But Desmond-Harris puts it into a single quite consistent frame: power. Cosby liked to tell people what to do. Think about the drugging of women — which he’s admitted to. Why would a man of Cosby’s fame and money have to drug women? I suspect that he didn’t. But he wanted a kind of guarantee — even more power than he already had. The truth is that I’m not very interested in this side of the whole thing. It’s creepy and sad. But it does provide insight into the public scolding.

The basis of Cosby’s criticism seems to be the Twice as Nice concept, where racism would disappear if only all blacks were perfect. This totally misses the way that racism works. Treating one “bad” African American as representative of other African Americans is racism. There is no way that African Americans are ever going to be good enough. And no one would ever require such a thing from whites.

So Cosby’s criticism of the African American community seemed to be all about how that community ought to serve him. It’s shortsighted, obviously. But even more, it’s all about making Bill Cosby’s life better — it’s something he couldn’t buy with his half billion dollars. At the same time, all this scolding won him loads of love from conservatives, who could always be depended upon to use Cosby as an excuse for their own racist stereotypes. Bill Cosby isn’t primarily a black man; he’s rather a powerful man who wants everything — just like all powerful men.

Bernie Sanders as Successful Legislator

Bernie SandersLee Fang wrote a really good article over at The Intercept on Monday, GOP Officials Publicly Denounce Bernie Sanders’ Obamacare Expansion, Quietly Request Funding. It is about Sanders’ work since his days as the mayor of Burlington on community health clinics. And while he’s been in the Senate, he’s been very successful at getting funding for clinics. That is most true of all regarding the ACA (Obamacare) where he managed to get $11 billion of funding “extending the number of people served by clinics from 18 million before the ACA to an expected 28 million next year.”

The great thing about these clinics is that they provide a kind of universal (if rationed) healthcare. They accept all people who come, regardless of their ability to pay. I used one of them myself a few years ago. It required showing up at the clinic before 6:00 am to stand in line in the cold winter air. (Yes, it was California, but Californians are wimps!) And the treatment I received was excellent. Obviously, such clinics make sense in a nation that refuses to even consider a single-payer system. This is a far more efficient way to provide healthcare than having people show up at hospital emergency rooms.

Lee FangFang provided some history of these clinics. I had assumed they went back forever. But that’s not true at all. They started in the early 1960s. Apparently, people who came to the south to work on voting and other civil rights were seen as “outside agitators.” As a result, the good doctors of these areas refused to treat them. (That’s one way of interpreting the Hippocratic Oath!) This lead to the formation of the Medical Committee for Human Rights (MCHR). They set up clinics. But the doctors noticed that the African American populations did not have much or any access to medical care. Eventually, this grew to providing clinics throughout the nation in poor communities.

As with most things involving Obamacare, of course, the funding of clinics is not branded. So the great expansion of clinics over the last couple of years has not been seen as due to Obamacare — for good or bad. But as Fang noted, “That relative invisibility has shielded health clinic funding from the hyper-partisan attacks faced by other provisions of the law. But it has also allowed Republican opponents of Obamacare to play a two-faced game.” Every single Republican in Congress has voted to Repeal Obamacare — that’s why they’ve voted on it so many times. It is like a rite of passage: all Republicans in Congress must have the experience of voting to repeal the law. (Yes, it is silly — even pathetic.)

But that means that these Republicans have also voted to repeal this funding for the clinics. Of course, there are all kinds of things that everyone loves in the law. But Republicans are not deep thinkers. If you had to describe what Republicans are in one word, it wouldn’t even be close: demagogues. But these same votes to repeal funding for the clinics has gone along with — What a surprise! — these same politicians taking credit for the clinics.

Of course, conservative hypocrisy is hardly news. But unfortunately, the fact that Bernie Sanders is a highly successful legislator generally is news — even to his supporters. I’m troubled by what I see as the Dennis-Kucinich-ization of Sanders. That’s the idea that he’s just ideologically correct but that he doesn’t have great skills outside of that. And Sanders isn’t just a good legislator; I’ve been impressed with just how good a politician he is. This doesn’t mean that he’s going to win the nomination, much less the presidency. But I think people should take him more seriously and look at who he really is.

The Republican Approach to Minority Groups

Rick PerryBrian Beutler wrote a very insightful article, The Republican Party Is Still Trying to Decide if Minorities Matter. He noted that the Republicans had three options regarding outreach to minority voters. The first was to actually, you know, reach out to minority voters. They obviously didn’t do this. I wrote about this a lot after the 2012 election. The truth is that it wasn’t an actual option. Reaching out to minority voters would have required embracing policies that are anathema to the party.

So the only practical options for them were the two others that Beutler mentioned. First, they could reach out in purely symbolic ways and generally not try to offend them. Let’s call that the “Pretend!” approach. Second, they could try to offend minority voters and believe that all the Republican Party needs is an ever increasing percentage of the white voter. Let’s call that the “Screw you!” approach.

Donald TrumpBeutler provided two examples of politicians pursuing these options. Donald Trump is pursuing the “Screw you!” approach. But he isn’t alone: Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Ben Carson are right there with him. Now, I don’t think it is any coincidence that none of these four is a serious candidate. The “Pretend” approach is exemplified by Rick Perry, who gave a campaign speech on the issue highlighting the fact that the Republican Party has been too focused on the Tenth Amendment (limit of federal powers) and not focused enough on the Fourteenth Amendment (equal protection under the law). I would quibble with the conservatives fetishization of the Tenth Amendment; they almost always mistake it for a similar sounding part of the Articles of Confederation. But Perry’s speech was good, and to some extent, the viable candidates are following in the same vein.

But it doesn’t really matter which approach is being used by the Republicans, they all amount to the same thing: trying to win with almost exclusively white voters. Since the Republicans are willing to do basically nothing of any substance for oppressed minority groups, their push for a “kinder and gentler” rhetoric is intended for consumption by whites. These are the whites that don’t actually care about minority groups, but who still don’t think they should be actively insulted and don’t actually think that they are all rapists (with some, I assume, good people). So as it has been for the last 45 years, the Republican Party is devoted to a southern strategy.

Clearly, the “Pretend!” approach is better than the “Screw you!” approach. But the most important point about the Republican Party at this point is that there is no advantage to truly courting minority voters. I think that is why a lot of people in the media were excited by Ron and Rand Paul. Their kind of Republican libertarianism seemed like an easy way for the party to move so that it remained conservative but could appeal to a broader base. But this was always a pipe dream for two reasons. First, the base isn’t fooled. The base is defined by its anger and fear. Libertarians might as well be hippies. But on the other side, it is even worse. What defines minority groups is not race. Race is just a concept made up to justify the oppression of certain groups. Minority groups are defined by their relative poverty. And what, after all, does the Republican Party stand for if not helping the rich?

There has been a lot of chatter on the left that people like Donald Trump actually help the Republican Party by making people like Jeb Bush seem moderate. I doubt that’s the case. Overall, people like Trump just feed into a narrative that although all Republicans may not be bigots, the Republican Party is where bigots are welcome. And that taints the party. Regardless of who gets the nomination, they will be washed clean by the nomination and given the official media stamp as “not a bigot.” So it hardly matters that Trump is around.

Anniversary Post: John Paul Getty III Kidnapping

John Paul Getty IIIOn this day in 1973, John Paul Getty III was kidnapped. While living in Italy, he was kidnapped by a bunch of mafia affiliated people, trying to get some money out of his billionaire grandfather. They asked for $17 million. So the guy’s father asked granddad for the money, but he refused. He claimed that it was to protect his other 14 grandchildren, who would all be threatened if the ransom was paid. It was just hogwash, of course; Jean Paul Getty Sr simply cared more about his money than did about any human being.

Four months later, Getty Jr got a letter from the kidnappers with a his son’s ear. But they had reduced the price to $3.2 million. Getty Jr again went to granddad, who agreed to give him $2.2 million — because that was as much as he could write off. The rest of the money he provided as a loan at 4% interest. Remember: Getty Sr had a couple of billion dollars. But note that he was no longer concerned about his other 14 grandchildren. John Paul Getty III was returned alive, but missing an ear.

I’ll write about Bill Cosby later today with regard to the way that great power corrupts people. But with people like Jean Paul Getty Sr, I wonder if it isn’t that psychopaths like him are just really good at making money. Of course, it’s not like Getty was that great at making money. His father was a rich oil man. Jean Paul Getty Sr was born into the business. Regardless: what a waste of a life.

We mark this day 42 years later for the fascinating glimpse it gives us into the messed up lives of the rich and famous.

The Vague Meaning of the CPI

Dean BakerThe final issue has to do with the meaning of a cost of living index. The underlying idea is that we are supposed to have enough money to buy a basket of quality adjusted goods and services over time that will leave us equally well off through time. An explicit assumption is that the physical and natural infrastructure have not changed. This is seriously problematic.

It means, for example, that in 2015 we would be able to buy the same phone and television as we did in 1979 and we would be as well off. There is no provision for the cost of buying a cell phone and paying for the service, nor the cost of the internet. We are supposed to believe that a person would be as well off without internet access in 2015 as they were in 1979. That doesn’t seem very plausible.

—Dean Baker
Quick Thoughts on Wage Stagnation

Why German Believe Fantasies About Greece

Simon Wren-LewisI am well aware that I often appear to be anti-German. That’s not entirely an incorrect assessment. Germany reminds me very much of the United States. Both are countries filled to the brim with undeserved self-righteousness. They say to anyone who will listen, “If only you were more like us, you would be fine — or at least better.” I hate this attitude in individuals and when I see it in countries, it frightens me. But is it really the case that Germany is behaving so badly toward Greece because of their pigheaded self-delusions about the German work ethic and frugality? Let’s say that it is at least a bit more complicated.

On Tuesday, Simon Wren-Lewis wrote, Why Germany Wants Rid of Greece. The title itself reminds me of World War I. There was a sense of relief among the power elite of Europe once the war came. Up to then, there had been all this messy and difficult negotiation. And as always, the power elite don’t like to negotiate. They are of the “all or nothing” persuasion (given that they are used to getting “all”). And there is little doubt that Germany would like to get get rid of Greece, as though that will get rid of the problem, and even more, as though that will be good for Germany.

Wren-Lewis confirmed what I’ve long thought:

When I recently visited Berlin, it quickly became clear the extent to which Germany had created a fantasy story about Greece. It was an image of Greeks as a privileged and lazy people, who kept on taking “bailouts” while refusing to do anything to correct their situation. I heard this fantasy from talking to people who were otherwise well informed and knowledgeable about economics.

The reason I’ve thought this was so is because people over here repeat that kind of nonsense. In 2011, Thomas Friedman wrote, “Germans are now telling Greeks: ‘We’ll loan you more money, provided that you behave like Germans in how you save, how many hours a week you work, how long a vacation you take, and how consistently you pay your taxes.'” David Brook similarly wrote, “[Nations like Germany and the US] believe in a simple moral formula: effort should lead to reward as often as possible.” Far be it for these two over-paid pundits to actually do a little research when they can just base whole articles on stereotypes. Matt Yglesias responded with facts, Are Greeks Lazy? He noted:

It’s true that Germans and Greeks work very different amounts, but not in the way you expect. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the average German worker put in 1,429 hours on the job in 2008. The average Greek worker put in 2,120 hours.

Wren-Lewis has an interesting argument to explain why it is that the Germans can believe such patently false things. He says that Germans have never liked Keynsian economics. They prefer marginal economic ideas like expansionary austerity, because it goes along with how they see themselves. But Greece represents a great problem to this. Despite what you will hear on the right, Greece has done almost exactly what the Troika has demanded for the last five years. The result: economic catastrophe with unemployment above 25%. The Germans have only two choices here: either admit that their economic theories are bunk or blame the patient. We know what their choice is.

Immigration Demagoguery Gets Big

Donald TrumpBeing here in the Bay Area, it has been really sad to watch so many people demagogue Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez, who apparently killed Kathryn Steinle. The event is a tragedy, of course: a young woman is dead. Lopez-Sanchez was an undocumented immigrant. So there has been all kinds of wringing of hands over the fact that San Francisco is a sanctuary city. As if that had anything to do with this crime. And now, Donald Trump has grabbed the case, after having seen what a little undocumented immigrant scapegoating can do to one’s poll numbers in the Republican presidential primary. What’s interesting about this is how it pulls back the veil on what all this talk of “illegal immigration” really means.

Using an incident in which an undocumented immigrant kills someone as indicative of the threat of all undocumented immigrants is the very definition of racism. Now before anyone gets down on me by claiming that this is not a racial category, let me be clear: race itself is a made up concept. Race is a system for categorizing a certain group of people who another group of people want to oppress. Sure, it can be based upon skin color or region, but the truth is that it can be anything. There is no reason why the blue eyed people couldn’t decide that brown eyed people are inferior and should thus be enslaved. So it is meaningless that “undocumented immigrant” or “illegal immigrant” don’t refer to people who look the same.

Hillary ClintonOr course, the truth is that we all do know that these evil undocumented immigrants look the same. We are talking about Mexicans — or at least Latinos. That’s as clear as the fact that the “welfare queen” was black. (Even though she wasn’t really black.) But it doesn’t much matter. That just makes it easier to instill hatred and fear — the weapons of the demagogue.

What we’ve got here is the real nature of racism. This is why ideas like Twice as Good don’t work. The undocumented community can never be good enough, because people like Donald Trump are more than happy to use someone like Lopez-Sanchez to tar all immigrants. This has been going on for centuries here in America. The only thing that changes is the targets. Except for blacks: that’s a constant; that never changes.

What is so remarkable is that every time racism rears its ugly head, it always has a different justification. No person in polite company will admit that thinking that there is anything wrong with African Americans genetically. But former vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan finds things wrong them them culturally. And so it is with Trump, who has no problem with Mexicans — just the awful ones who come here. So really, Trump’s problem is with statistics: we are getting a skewed sample of Mexicans.

Now Trump is demagoguing a second murder. Jamiel Andre Shaw was apparently murdered by Pedro Espinoza. This is a big deal, because Espinoza was the right age back in 2008 to have been a Dreamer. Of course, there was no such program at that point. And as Steve M noted at No More Mister Nice Blog:

Espinoza had a criminal history — one report says he had “an extensive juvenile record along with one adult conviction.” He was released from jail on a gun charge the day before he committed the murder. In establishing the DACA program, the Obama administration said that in order to be eligible one must “have not been convicted of a felony offense, a significant misdemeanor, or more than three misdemeanors of any kind” and “not pose a threat to national security or public safety.”

Thus: Espinoza would not have qualified for the program. So he wasn’t a Dreamer in fact, and in the alternate universe where Obama became president in 2000, he wouldn’t have been a Dreamer. But the point is not about Espinoza at all. What the conservatives are getting at — and Donald Trump in a big way — is that there must be people who would be Dreamers who will commit murders. Therefore, it’s a terrible program. And since there are undocumented immigrants who commit murders, all of them must be bad.

This is, of course, entirely the wrong way to think about this. If we look at the statistics, we find that undocumented immigrants commit less crime than American citizens. But this doesn’t matter in this discussion. What matters is that Donald Trump has two of “those people” he can use to demagogue this issue. And he’s hardly alone; I haven’t been too happy about Hillary Clinton on the issue of sanctuary cities. It’s all horrible. But maybe we shouldn’t blame the politicians. This kind of simplistic thinking is apparently all that Americans can appreciate.

Also: we’re a bunch of racists.

Anniversary Post: Fourteenth Amendment

Fourteenth AmendmentOn this day in 1868, the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was ratified. A good case can be made that the US really began on this date. Because the amendment fundamentally changed our Constitution. Before it, the government was largely hamstrung by the Constitution. The Fourteenth Amendment allowed the United States to become a modern democracy. But it would take some time. As Ian Millhiser documents in Injustices, even into the 20th century, the curious reading of the amendment by the Supreme Court, meant that it was used primarily to oppress the very people the amendment was intended to protect.

What’s interesting about the Fourteenth Amendment today is that, in general, conservatives hate it. In this regard, I’m very interested in Section 4, which reads in part, “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” It’s interesting because I remember in 2005 that Bush decided to “spend” his alleged political capital on something that few of the 50.7% of the people thought they had voted for: privatizing Social Security.

So Bush went around talking about how there wasn’t a Social Security Trust Fund. Instead, it was “just IOUs.” It’s a totally bizarre claim. To start with, cash is also “just IOUs.” But more to the point, Bush wanted to transfer a huge part of Social Security to private investment accounts. That would have meant that instead of having US bonds, we would have had stock certificates. So we again would have had “just IOUs.” The difference would be that governments IOUs are considered the safest investment in the world, and stocks are, well, not quite as safe.

The broader point is that Bush was doing exactly what the Fourteenth Amendment said no one should do. But from his perspective, it didn’t much matter. Sure, the Fourteenth Amendment was a Republican thing, but that was the liberal Republican Party. Other than occasionally mentioning Lincoln (because now even conservatives admit that slavery was wrong), the modern Republican Party is cut off from its past. More recently, Republicans have been calling for an end to automatic citizenship for people born here — Section 1 of the Fourteenth Amendment. But I’m not naive; if the Fourteenth Amendment justified something that Republicans wanted to do, they would be quoting it — selectively.

But this day in 1868 was a very good day because the Fourteenth Amendment transformed the nation. I just wish conservatives would read it.