Walmart Stock Plunge Shows Wall St Dysfunction

Michael HiltzikOn Wednesday, Walmart stock went down by over 10%. And over the following two days, it has slowly gone down another 3%. Walmart did announce that earnings for the next year will be 6% to 12% less. But as Michael Hiltzik pointed out, this is primarily due to investments that the company is making. In particular, Walmart is raising wages and improving its ecommerce capabilities. To offset this, the company is going to do a $20 billion stock buyback, which should increase shareholder value. But that was apparently not good enough. And clearly, this wasn’t an impetuous reaction from Wall Street — the slide continues.

What the whole thing shows is how American finance is razor focused on short term profits. The things that Walmart is doing are undoubtedly good for its long term profitability. In fact, this has traditionally been the point of having stocks. It is a way for businesses to raise money so that they can invest in their infrastructure. But today, it seems the only point of stocks is to have a quarterly return. The stock traders figure that they can always buy back into Walmart after it is done with its worker and capital improvements. They don’t need to be part of the process, because actual business investment is scary.

As I write this, the total value of Walmart stock is down over 12%. Supposedly, this means that the company is worth that much less than it was Wednesday morning. You know: the perfection of markets and all. But this just shows that Wall Street doesn’t actually reflect the value of companies. It is some kind of sick and twisted notion of wealth where companies are worth only what they can bring in immediately. It is this kind of thinking that never would have gotten us to the Moon or even to civilization.

Although I think this is a particular dysfunction of modern Wall Street, this has actually always been the problem with capitalism. It really is great at doing the minutia of production and distribution. If you need to produce and distribute disposable diapers, capitalism is absolutely the best way there is for getting them to new parents. When it comes providing prenatal care for mothers, capitalism is a particularly bad system. So that ought to be settled. But as a society, we seem incapable of looking objectively at capitalism, and see it rather as a law of the universe that can’t be questioned.

But it is very disturbing that as proven a moneymaker as Walmart can’t look out for its long term interests without being savaged. Investors would rather use their money to get certain immediate profits than do the work of actual investment. There are only two possibilities in the Walmart case. It’s either that the investors are panicking over nothing — they care only about profits in the next year and not at all about Walmart’s long term profitability. Or it is that investors greatly overvalued it before based only on short term considerations, not calculating its need to continue to invest in order to grow.

This is a great example of the failure of capitalism. And part of it is that the rich understand that they don’t need to worry about the long term. If things go wrong, the government — which they spend so much time complaining about — will be there to bail them out. So they base everything on a three month time frame. Squirrels plan further ahead.

Morning Music: Claude Debussy

Claude DebussyTo me, the Romantic period really ends with Brahms. Clearly it did go on, but even by end of his life, the Impressionists had come to dominate classical music — at least as a going concern. And you can hear the continuity between Brahms and Claude Debussy, our featured artist today.

I don’t want to get far into his career — he really came into his full power in his early thirties with pieces like, Prelude to the Afternoon of a Faun. And he created great works up to shortly before his death of rectal cancer at 55, like arguably the greatest piece ever written for solo flute, Syrinx.

Debussy is really were classic music starts to become un-linked from standard tonality. Harmony becomes much more a matter of setting an emotional tone. He is also the first composer that I know of who really understood chromaticism, and was able to make it work in the context of the larger work. We see some of this in the following early work that he wrote around the age 25, Petite Suite — a work for piano with four hands. It’s also be transcribed for other groups of instruments. I think it is notable just for having such a broad range of colors. It’s a gorgeous work.

And here again, we get to enjoy Martha Argerich on the piano. She is joined by the Romanian pianist Cristina Marton.

Anniversary Post: “The Game of the Century”

Donald ByrneOn this day in 1956 was “The Game of the Century” — a chess game in the Rosenwald Memorial Tournament between 26 year old Donald Byrne and 13 year old Bobby Fisher. At the time, Byrne was a leading chess player in the US.

Byrne lost the game, due mostly to an amazing queen “sacrifice” by Fischer, which, over the course of several moves results in Fisher winning a rook, two bishops, and a pawn — generally counted as 12 points versus 10 points for the queen. I’ve always thought that Byrne showed very good sportsmanship for playing the game through long after he knew he had lost. Mostly, he underestimated the 13-year-old chess genius.

It isn’t actually that interesting a game. Fischer himself conspicuously ignored it in his My 60 Memorable Games. As noted, Byrne was a great player. In 1955, for example, while playing black, he beat one of the chess icons of the 20th century Efim Geller. He went on to become an International Master in 1962. It is assume that he would have become a Grandmaster, but he was in poor health and died of lupus at the age of 45.

More Outrageous Use of rel=”nofollow”

Stop the nofollow attributeA few days back, I saw that I was getting a lot of people clicking onto an article I wrote last month, We’ve Abandoned the Poor in This Country. So I checked where it was coming from, and it was from the Slacktivist blog on one of the best websites around, Patheos. That was thrilling. It’s always thrilling when people link to me — regardless of the size of the site. But it’s especially nice when it is someone who is established. It makes me think that I just may be okay at this writing and ranting thing.

But for some reason, I looked at the source code for the page, and I saw that the link to me used the nofollow relation. At first, I thought this was some reflection on me. But no. That was the case for all of the links on that page — and every other page. It is, as far as I can tell, the default for every link on the Patheos website. What that means is that Patheos does not take part in the single most important aspect of search engine rankings. As far as Google and Bing are concerned, if Patheos links to you, it might as well have not.

What’s the point of this? The nofollow relation was created to stop spam. It was a raging failure. But it has made pretty much all blogging and CMS software default to using this relation. I understand why one might want to use this for comments. Of course, I don’t do it, because I think commenters add value to my site and the least I can go is give them a little boost in their Google ranking. And this creates an interesting disconnect. When TheoLib commented about the link at Slacktivist with the link, that link gives Slacktivist page ranking credit that it doesn’t provide me, even though my link was in the text of that article.

It is just outrageous to put nofollow on all outgoing links. And if a website as established and professional as Patheos is doing this, I think it is time to do something. I think we need to lose nofollow. It doesn’t do what it was originally intended to do. But as a result of a lot of bad conventions, it now distorts the rankings of pages in Google. What’s more, it goes entirely against the idea that Google’s algorithm was originally designed to eliminate: gaming search engine results (although in this case by omission rather than commission).

The vast majority of people who complain about nofollow do so about Wikipedia’s policy. But I don’t blame Wikipedia at all. For one thing, it is kind of like a public utility of the internet. It’s allowed to have special rules. But more to the point, if people knew they could get their Page Rank increased by stuffing links into Wikipedia, it would be open season on that site. It would destroy it as by far the most useful tool on the internet.

The situation with Patheos (and many other sites as well) is that we aren’t talking about content that just anyone can create. This was created by Fred Clark — Mr Slacktivist himself. He’s not going to spam himself. So what is the point of adding nofollow to all his links? To me, it is very much like people who choose not to vote. It is an act of internet citizen neglect. But in this case, I would be shocked if Clark or any of the other writers at Patheos are even aware of the practice.

Nothing Alone Will Fix Global Warming — So Do Nothing!

Climate Change Is a HoaxI heard from Jonathan Chait that, The New Conservative Argument to Ignore Climate Change Is Even Dumber Than the Old One. It seems that National Review came up with a “clever” question they wanted the Democrats asked at Tuesday’s debate, “Do you support President Obama’s EPA restrictions on emissions even though science reporters at The New York Times admitted in a recent story that restrictions will do nothing to combat climate change by themselves?” Chait noted what should come as no surprise to readers here: that’s not actually what the Times article said.

But what I thought was interesting was the idea that we should do nothing about climate change if that thing all by itself doesn’t fix the problem. It’s kind of like they took Zeno’s Paradox as a proof: if you add up a bunch of small thing the end result is nothing! I know, I know: because National Review started in large part to push back against the stupidity of the conservative base, you think it still ought to do that. But those days are gone and the most you can expect of conservative elites is a resigned acceptance of the way things are. After all: how else are they going to get their regressive tax cuts?

So I present you with a few of my own examples of things that are not worth doing because they alone will not fix a problem. Chait offered this own: calling 911 when you have a heart attack and buying groceries to feed your children. In addition, I offer the following, which I’m sure National Review (actually, Stephen L Miller) obviously thinks (because consistency is the cornerstone of conservative thinking):

  • Why work out in the gym when that one work out isn’t going to make you stronger?
  • There’s no point of driving on the right side of the street, because that alone is not going to keep you safe.
  • Why practice a musical instrument when that one session isn’t going to make you a good musician?
  • There’s no point of starting a diet, because that first day of eating less isn’t going to make you thin.
  • Why put on the brakes when it is clear you are going to hit the car in front of you? In fact, why not hit the accelerator?

There are obvious political cases too: we shouldn’t enact any healthcare reform because nothing will fix all of the problems. Basically National Review would make that case since they want the government to do nothing other than those things it does now that funnel wealth from the bottom of the economy to the top. Of course, with global warming, it’s clear that addressing the problem would be a good thing even if it didn’t fix the problem. The National Review position reminds me very much this cartoon:

Global Warming Hoax

As Chait noted, “The new talking point rests on grade-school-level sophistry.” You would think that conservative thinking would have nowhere to go but up. Instead, they always find a way to go down.

Morning Music: Johannes Brahms

Johannes BrahmsThe Romantic period brought out the worst in mediocre composers. Pretty much any Classical composer could grind out an acceptable piece of music. But that just isn’t so in the Romantic period. I blame Beethoven who inspired many people who shouldn’t have been inspired. Although in a fundamental sense Beethoven was the greatest composer of this period (transitional though he may have been), I prefer to listen to Johannes Brahms.

Brahms was a protege of Robert Schumann, who was probably the biggest influence on the young composer. They became friends when Brahms was only 20 years old. This may be why Brahms was considered a conservative composer, at least compared to the other dominant composers of the time. But this gets to my general problem with Romantic music. The excesses of the period are well on display in Wagner and Liszt. What’s more, I find Brahms constantly innovative, just not in such a flashy way. His Symphony No 1 is a great example of restrained brilliance. Not that he couldn’t be more ostentatious as he is in the Violin Concerto in D.

But of the most interest to modern listeners is probably Brahms’ work with folk tunes. That’s especially true of the Hungarian Dances. And since I know from experience that people will not listen to hour long symphonies or concertos, here are numbers 5, 6, 7, and 17 — used in the Merrie Melodies classic, Pigs in a Polka:

Anniversary Post: Harpers Ferry Raid

John BrownOn this day in 1859, John Brown’s raid on Harpers Ferry occurred. I’ll be honest: I’ve never known what to think of it and I still don’t know what to think about it. Can it be justified? Well, given the magnitude of the sin of American slavery, I think a case can be made. But it does have rather too much in common with people today who think that abortion represents another Holocaust and that it justifies killing doctors.

I do think there many distinctions here. To begin with, abortion is an issue that only recently came on the radar of protestants. And they aren’t at all consistent. The vast majority who believe abortion is wrong have no problem with the death penalty. This is equivalent to the case where John Brown killed people to free black slaves but was completely okay with having Native American slaves.

Another issue is that John Brown was trying to start an uprising that would destroy the institution of slavery itself. As I discussed some time ago, Brown thought that he could do this with very little bloodshed. Before he died, he realized that he was wrong; and the country soon learned it too. What is it that someone like Scott Roeder was trying to accomplish? Did he think that the murder of George Tiller would be the end of abortion in America? I suspect not. I suspect that “thinking” wasn’t really involved with what he was doing.

There is also the issue that an act done in the name of what is right is more justified than an act done in the name of what is wrong. No, ends do not justify means. But motive matters. I understand that anti-abortion activists believe that they are right. That doesn’t make them so, however. In particular, they are mostly unwilling to do anything at all to reduce abortion other than to make it illegal. In fact, as a movement, it has been all in favor of banning birth control. If your concern were really about unborn “babies,” wouldn’t you do everything you could to prevent them? Wouldn’t that even including taxing people more to help out poor mothers?

What’s more, John Brown’s goal was attainable: the end of slavery. Abortions will never be wiped out, because the vast majority of them happen naturally. Miscarriages are spontaneous abortions. And once again, we come back to the almost total disinterest of anti-choice crusaders. Better prenatal care would prevent far more abortions than any laws. But again: that would require something of the anti-choice activists, and so is not considered.

I still don’t know if John Brown was right. In general, I don’t believe in violence. But I think a case can be made for what he did. There is no case that can be made for those against abortion who turn to violence.

Stewart, Carson, and That Special Connection

Trevor NoahI remember old people and the way they talked about Johnny Carson. He was special to them in a way he was not to me. I still really liked him. I especially remember a joke he told in 1976. (That’s right: at 12 years old, my parents let me stay up that late. Is there any wonder I turned out like this?) Jerry Brown was running for president. Carson told a joke that I will paraphrase, “Reporters asked Jerry Brown if he had a response to those who said he was just a hippy with his head in the clouds. Brown responded, ‘You give good karma out; you get good karma back in.'” That’s a solid joke. But it died. So Carson ad libbed, “How about: he said it while meditating on ten pounds of raw liver?” I died. Brilliant joke. So I liked Carson, but he was never for me what he was for people 30 years older.

But I understand now. With Jon Stewart leaving The Daily Show, I feel a profound sense of lose. At the end, I thought The Colbert Report was better. But it is Stewart that I miss — and not because Colbert has The Late Show. It’s good, and I watch it now and then, but it is nothing special. It’s weird, but we humans really do develop relationships with people we don’t know. But I’m kind of glad Stewart left, because I like the feeling. It’s great that he left at (or near to) his peak.

So how am I dealing with The Daily Show with Trevor Noah? Well, it’s great. It isn’t the same. It doesn’t feel like my show. But it has been great from the first episode. It has a great advantage over Larry Wilmore and The Nightly Show, in that it has an established format. But let’s face it: it also has better writers. I’m not sure about the future of The Nightly Show, because it still struggles. But The Daily Show should live on.

That was especially true last Thursday. As you have probably heard, Ben Carson made a comment about how all those people murdered recently in Oregon should have rushed the gunman. It’s a typical kind of libertarian purely theoretical argument. Yes: if all of them rushed the gunman, then only some of them would have died. It has all the real world usefulness of a Dungeon and Dragons scenario.

But then it turned out that Carson had previously admitted to being at a Popeyes fried chicken place when a gunman came in and pointed a gun at him. Carson — rather different from his tough guy stance today — just calmly told the gunman, “I believe that you want the guy behind the counter.” But Noah didn’t take the routine in the obvious direction — at least right away. It’s clear enough what a total jerk and hypocrite Ben Carson is.

Carson said something else that was odd. I’m sure it stuck out to everyone who heard it — it certainly did me. But only the gifted could turn that into comedic gold. Carson referred to the restaurant as, “Popeyes organization.” So Noah just ran with it, “Popeyes is a little known charity that gives out fried chicken in exchange for money. Learn how you can help at PopeyesGivesBack.org.”

Well, I did what I always do: I went to the website. And sure enough, it exists. I looked it up and they bought it at 2:00 local time that day. There’s not much there, but it is well done — especially when you consider they only had a couple of hours to put it together. The high point is a quote from Ben Carson, MD, “This chicken is to die for! Not for me, certainly, but for someone else. I’d suggest the guy behind the counter.”

I think I’m too old to ever have quite the connection to Trevor Noah that I have to Jon Stewart. But the show is certainly in capable hands. And at this point, I am as committed to watching it every morning as I ever have been.

Data Journalists Don’t Know Anything About the Poor Anywhere

Annie LoweryLast year, I wrote an article that got quite a lot of attention thanks to a tweet by Max Blumenthal, News Bias Is a Choice to Lack Diversity. The article was about the implicit bias in the press because the reporters are all of the upper-middle and upper classes — cut off from the worlds of middle and lower class workers. I wrote, “This is why business reporters seem to only find news about the management side of business interesting. They don’t have any friends who are in labor unions.” The article got enough attention that Matt Yglesias read it and responded that reporters do known people in unions because most newspapers are unionized. Note the change from “are friends with” to “know.”

It’s a telling comment. I like Yglesias’ work very much. But he is blind to the interests of lower class workers who were so very well represented by unions in the decades before he was born. And he’s very much typical of a particular group of “data journalists” most symbolized by Vox. Again, I read Vox every day — they put out great work. But despite the publication’s claim that it is all about data, it is constrained as much by ideology as every other news outlet. It is just that their brand of soft neoliberalism is easily mistaken for the truth.

Matt YglesiasErik Loomis over at Lawyers, Guns & Money has been on this beat for a while. I first noticed it with an article earlier this month, What Does Dylan Matthews Think The Worst New York Times Article Published in the Last Decade Is? It turned out that it was article by Paul Theroux, The Hypocrisy of “Helping” the Poor. Basically, the Vox senior correspondent thought that it was wrong — Really wrong! — to complain about globalization hurting poor people in America when it was helping poor people in Bangladesh.

Matthews original complaint was just a tweet. Now, two articles have been published attacking the original article. Loomis has all the details, More on Paul Theroux, the Greatest Monster in Known History for Caring About American Workers. And he dives pretty deeply into the subject of the Washington data journalists’ ideological dysfunction. It is a mindless acceptance of globalization as a Good Thing™. We all know that, all things equal, more trade is a good thing. Thus, any given worker complaining about their troubles should just shut up.

This is almost literally true of Annie Lowery. A woman in Theroux’s article was complaining about how the Clinton Foundation did all this work in Africa, “Don’t they realize our people need help?” To which Lowery responded, “Not in the way that people in Zimbabwe do, lady. Not even close.” It’s a shocking display of class based disdain. As if a paraplegic can’t complain so long as there are quadriplegics in the world. And as Loomis points out, it shows that they approach the problem of poverty “from 30,000 feet.” They have no connections to these people, just as their analyse of Uber is all about them getting more convenience in their urbane lives and not about struggling low-middle class drivers.

Jeff Spross at The Week provided a far more expansive view of the issue, Us against them? Why Globalization Doesn’t Have to Pit American Workers Against the World’s Poor. Basically, he’s making a Dean Baker kind of argument: globalization hurts the poor in America because our government has made it that way; we can have globalization that works for everyone. But what I want to focus on is Spross’ criticism of the “American preference for ‘absolute’ poverty measures.”

The reason I bring it up is because of this great lecture by Richard Wilkinson, where he looks at economic inequality. Between countries, inequality doesn’t seem to have much effect on broadly defined health measures. But it has a clear and large effect within countries. Clearly, this is a study only of advanced economies, and Zimbabwe is seriously messed up. But the idea that poor people in Mississippi should just shut up because other people are doing worse outside the country 10,000 miles away misses the whole point.

My takeaway from this is just how callous we all are. I don’t believe that the Vox crowd really cares any more about the people in Zimbabwe than they do the people in Mississippi. They certainly don’t have any experience with the people who are suffering there. But it is really the fact that having a callous disregard for the suffering in Mississippi and a deep concern for the suffering in Zimbabwe pushes their existing belief that globalization is a Good Thing™. All of the neoliberal data journalists should listen to Lowery’s own inadvertent wisdom, “The reality, you’ll be surprised to hear, is more complicated.”

Afterword

After I wrote this, I noticed that the brilliant Matt Bruenig wrote, The Muddled Globalization Debate. He looks at the issue in an economic way and notes, “The fact that goods cost 10% less than they would in the alternative doesn’t help someone whose income is 30% less than the alternative.” It gets to the same issue, which is just that Lowery and company are clueless about the effects of globalization on actual people. They can wave a hand and say that there are things we could do to minimize the harm, but the fact remains that we don’t. It’s like I wrote earlier this year, No Trade Deals Until Our Economy Is Fixed. I’m not interested in trade deals even if they do increase GDP as long as the vast majority of the gains all go to the top.

Morning Music: Robert Schumann

Robert SchumannI guess we have to discuss Robert Schumann. To me, he is the Romantic period. He is also the reason that I don’t like the period. But that doesn’t mean that he wasn’t a great composer. What’s more, he was a huge influence on Johannes Brahms, who I like rather more.

For the first ten years of his career, Schumann wrote exclusively for the piano. He had intended to be a pianist, but injured his hand and so turned to composition. At the peak of his abilities, he composed the Piano Concerto in A minor. I have to admit, it is an exquisite piece. At the same time, you can hear the kinds of things that bother me — its overly dramatic parts. But his use of the full orchestra for all its colors really is masterful. And you can certainly hear the beginnings of impressionism that would come with later composers.

This performance features one of the greatest pianists alive, Martha Argerich.

It may be of interest to you to know that Robert Schumann came by his music honestly. He was manic-depressive and slipped into paranoia later in life. He died at the age of 46 in an insane asylum.

Anniversary Post: Black Panther Party

Black PowerOn or about this date in 1966, the Black Panther Party was started in Oakland, California. In the early 1960s, the Civil Rights Movement made huge positive change in the south. But in northern cities, things hadn’t changed. The issue wasn’t voting rights. It was poverty, lack of opportunity, and police violence. Interestingly, these are same problems communities of color face today.

The Black Panthers was started by Huey Newton and Bobby Seale out of the Black Power movement. It was actually quite an intellectual group. That was true of the whole Black Power movement. But to the white suburban middle class, they were terrifying. Of course, the white middle class had also helped to created the group — by segregating themselves in the suburbs and leaving the cities to die economically.

What’s been getting a lot of attention recently is the Mulford Act. All the conservatives today are against any form of gun control. But the conservatives sure were in favor of it in 1967 when they saw black men with legitimate grievances carrying guns. Such a thing was enough to get Ronald Reagan signing gun control laws, that’s for sure.

Why I Won’t See the Film Steve Jobs

Steve JobsI have no problem with Apple products. I have an Mac in my kitchen. I am an agnostic in the computer wars. Well, close enough. If I’m feeling generous, I think people who are partisans of Windows, Mac, or Linux are just silly. Otherwise, I think they are idiots. I can and do use all of the computers and I don’t much care which one you put in front of me. In all cases, I’ll install vi and be happy as a clam. But there is one thing that I do hate: the Apple culture.

I can hardly believe that I still have to hear people tell me that Macs are easy to use. So are Windows machines. So are Linux machines. People who think that Macs are so much better than other systems are still living in 1990. They remind me of supposed Japanese soldiers who were fighting World War II long after it was over. Hey everybody: stick you head up and look around! A lot has happened in the last 25 years! But isn’t the iPhone great?! Didn’t Apple single-handedly invent everything that is good and true in the high tech?! They are the most slappable people in the world.

But even if you did think that Apple products were particularly super-keen, how does Steve Jobs fit into it all? I see him as effectively no different from Bill Gates — except that Gates at least was a programmer. But they were both successful because they were ruthless CEOs — the reincarnation of the robber barons. They weren’t successful because they were visionary or even competent. They were — as the best CEOs are — people capable of taking a particular market advantage and milking it for all it is worth. If you had switched Jobs and Gates in 1980, there would be no change in the history of computing.

So I’m not interesting in seeing the film Steve Jobs. Who is he that he deserves a biopic? I really don’t know. A film about Steve Wozniak might be interesting, because someone who actually knows something about technology having to live in the shadow of the Steve Jobs myth might be interesting. But from what I’ve read, this film is all about what a terrible person Jobs is. But why then are are we interested? Well, I think Bob Mondello on NPR sums up the feelings of most of the critics who are fawning over the film, “The film feels so electric while you’re watching, it’s hard to believe that after two hours, it doesn’t even get to the iPod, let alone the iPhone.”

In case you missed that, he’s saying that Steve Jobs is such an amazing genius that we should care. Oh. My. God! The iPhone! Can you imagine?! The iPhone?! Why it’s just the greatest thing in the world! Steve Jobs is responsible for our whole way of life! You get the impression that Mondello is sad Jobs didn’t leave stool samples so we could literally get the bottom of his genius. And this is just what you should expect, because among the people I read, this kind of witless joy over Apple products is common.

So I’m not going to see this movie because it is predicated on the idea that Apple is something more than just another company selling just another product. Certainly if Steve Jobs had never been born, we would live in a different world. It might be worse, but it is just as likely that it would be better. Steve Jobs’ greatest trick was convincing the world that he was a genius. He wasn’t a genius. He was just another robber baron of the later 20th century.