Chris Kyle and America’s Religious Wars

Chris KyleLast weekend, our colleague Marc McDonald over at Beggars Can Be Choosers wrote, “American Sniper”: Chris Kyle Was a Perfect Poster Boy for Bush’s War of Lies. He did an excellent job of putting Kyle into the context of Bush’s illegal and immoral war. But I was very taken with one line from Kyle’s autobiography. Apparently, he wrote, “I couldn’t give a flying fuck about the Iraqis.” That wasn’t the first time I’d read that quote. But this time it hit me in a different way.

Kyle was a sniper. He had enormous power and discretion in who he targeted. Add to this that at one point, another sniper was threatening Kyle’s record for number of kills, and suddenly Kyle found that a whole lot more “bad guys” were appearing in front of his scope. Coming from an objective sniper with no inclinations other than to do his job to the best of his abilities, this would raise troubling questions. But coming from a sniper who apparently hated all Iraqis and who thought they were “damn savages,” you end up with a very bad situation — one where there really is no doubt that many innocent Iraqis were murdered by Kyle. And his absolute certainty that everyone he shot was a “bad guy,” makes it all the more suspect.

It would seem that in Chris Kyle’s Christian fanaticism, any Iraqi that he killed was a bad guy. He starts his book by discussing his first sniper kill of a woman with a grenade, “My shots saved several Americans, whose lives were clearly worth more than that woman’s twisted soul.” The irony is rich. The woman is fighting against an invading force. Regardless of what I think about what the woman did or stood for, Kyle was clueless. He was a member of an invading force and her actions were absolutely no more twisted than his own.

The most base form of tribalism in our society is religion. And this is what most bothers me about the almost total lack of a theological basis among Christian conservative faiths. All they really offer to their followers is the idea that we are “good” and they are “bad.” And the reason for the distinction is nothing more than that we are “us.” So we get comments from Kyle like, “I don’t shoot people with Korans. I’d like to, but I don’t.” It’s just a book. Why would you want to kill every person who has that book? Because having that book indicates that they are one of those people.

I would think that the US military would filter for people like Chris Kyle. Clearly, he went to Iraq with a different agenda than the military’s stated agenda. After all, we were supposedly there to liberate the Iraqi people from the oppression of Saddam Hussein. Iraq is 99% Muslim. Imagine a country invading America to free us from the tyranny of Barack Obama. America is an 80% Christian nation. Would it make sense to have snipers who wanted to shoot everyone they saw with a Bible? It would only make sense if the “freedom mission” was just a lie. It would only make sense if it wasn’t a war for the American people, but against them.

So Marc McDonald is right — in more than one way. America allows these kinds of Christian nationalists in the military — people who believe that Christianity is The Truth™ and that our wars should be in the service of spreading their religion. In addition to this being immoral, in the long-term, it will destroy our country.

Conservatives Are the Biggest Class Warriors

Shaila DewanShaila Dewan over at The Upshot reported, States Consider Increasing Taxes for the Poor and Cutting Them for the Affluent. This is not exactly shocking. I’ve been writing about this for a good long time. These states, of course, are Republican run states. They are states like Kansas where the Republicans decided that their economies would boom if they cut taxes on the rich and on businesses. They were wrong. Their economies did not boom, but their budget deficits sure did. So what is a Republican government to do? Well, first they cut funding for the schools. But that only gets you so far. Eventually, they have to turn to taxes.

But wasn’t that what got them in trouble in the first place? What is the point of cutting taxes if you are just going to raise them later? Well, it’s very simple. The idea was never to cut taxes. The idea was to shift the tax burden from the rich onto the poor. You may remember back at the start of 2013. The Republicans in Congress were crazy mad because the Obama administration wanted to end the temporary (decade long) tax cuts on incomes over a quarter million dollars per year. The Republicans were united in their belief that this was an outrage! But at the exact same time, the Republicans were absolutely fine with payroll taxes going back up. They claimed that was just because the payroll tax holiday was meant to be temporary. But so were the Bush tax cuts that the Republicans were so angry about.

Let’s think about that for a moment. The normal payroll tax rate is 12.4%. And the payroll tax holiday brought that amount down to 10.4%. The median American worker made $51,900 in 2013. There are no deductions for the payroll taxes, so normally, this worker would pay $6,435.60 per year, but during the holiday period, paid only $5,397.60. So that was an extra thousand bucks that the worker would take home each year. That’s a nice chunk of change — 2% of her gross pay for the year.

Because the payroll tax is extremely regressive, it worked very differently for a rich person. Consider Mitt Romney. Since 2013 was after the 2012 election, we can assume that Romney’s gross income was back up to its usual amount. We’ll go easy on him and just assume it was $20 million. I’m not sure if Mitt Romney’s income consists of any earned income at all. So he may pay none. But let’s just assume that he earned $113,700 that year — the maximum amount that payroll taxes apply. So he would have normally paid $14,098.80, but with the holiday, it would have only been $11,824.80. So he would have another two thousand bucks to spend. Maybe he’d buy an extra shirt or something. But the difference in his taxes wouldn’t be 2%. It would be just over 0.01%. So you can see that Mitt Romney and his class wouldn’t care about the payroll tax holiday, even though it was much better for the economy than the lower top marginal tax rate that the congressional Republicans were so worked up about.

Shared Sacrifice

So we’ve known for a very long time that the Republicans are not against taxes. They just don’t want their rich friends to be taxed. And the interesting thing is that Republicans are always the first to cry “class warfare” whenever inequality is brought up. But the entire basis of their ideology is class warfare. Now if you ask them, they will claim that they just want the tax system to be fair. And by that, they mean that everyone should have to pay the same percentage of their incomes in taxes. That is preposterous, of course. A young person living on $10,000 per year cannot afford a 10% tax rate the way that, for example, Mitt Romney can. But the situation is worse than that.

Conservatives are only in favor of an equal tax rate right now. Look at the way that they think the payroll tax is just fine. That’s a tax that I pay 12.4% of my income on — and always have. But Mitt Romney pays a rate of 0.07%. I pay almost 200 times as high a rate in payroll taxes as the Great and Mighty Trust-Fund Bully Romney. This is why you never hear Republicans complain about the payroll tax. If they ever managed to enact a single income tax rate, the Republicans would immediately start pushing for an equal tax: every person would pay the same amount in taxes. After all, regardless of how rich or poor a person is, she can only use one road at a time. Why should the rich person have to pay more for it?

Conservative thought nominally goes back to Edmund Burke. But he was just pushing a far older idea that the rich really are better than the rest of us. So it is not surprising that conservatives will always be pushing for more and more taxes to be borne by the poor. And the end result of that is for the rich to pay no taxes. Ultimately, for conservatives, the government should be replaced by the rich. They are our betters. They will take care of us out of their sense of noblesse oblige. (Modern definition of “noblesse oblige”: greed is good!) And rule by the people will ultimately lead to the Reign of Terror. This is why conservatives don’t believe in democracy. It is all part of the same package.

Paul Krugman responded to Shaila Dewan’s article, Naked Came the Class Warriors. He noted, “And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why I can’t take talk about ‘reform conservatism’ seriously.” Of course. I’m not sure why people ever took “reform conservatism” seriously. It is an oxymoron. But more important, the idea of conservatism is not to make society better and more just through conservative policy. It is quite simply to give more power to those who already have the most power. And this is simply because conservatives think that the powerful are better. But the rest of us must wake up to reality: conservatism in anti-American. And if it succeeds, it will destroy the nation. It’s already gone a long way in accomplishing that goal.

Ion Andreescu

Ion AndreescuOn this day in 1850, the great Romanian painter Ion Andreescu was born. By his early twenties, he was already a noted drawing instructor. He was clearly influenced by the works of the impressionists. In his work, I see a lot of Édouard Manet. But it is hard to say, given his relative isolation in Romania. Regardless, in 1878, he moved to Paris where he was immediately recognized as a peer of painters such as Monet and Renoir.

Unfortunately, he caught tuberculosis in Paris and was forced to return to Romania in 1881. He died the following year at the age of only 32. Here is one of his stunning works, which I unfortunately do not have a title for:

Title Unknown - Ion Andreescu

Happy birthday Ion Andreescu!

Lu Brent’s Exclusive Card Mysteries

Lu Brent's Exclusive Card MysteriesOne of the best things about magic is that amateurs have such a large impact on the art. My hometown of Santa Rosa, California, was also the home of one of the great card magic innovators, Jack McMillen. But better known magicians such as Ken Krenzel and Ed Marlo were also amateurs. Another such icon of the art was Benjamin Joseph Lubrant, who performed and published under the name Lu Brent.

Last year, Michael over at iTricks provided the only biography that I’ve ever seen of this unique magician, Bringing Lu Brent Into The Spotlight. He was born in 1903 in New Jersey. It seems that outside of his semi-professional performance schedule and writing for “every major magic magazine of his day,” he preferred to keep a low profile. Still, he was well known in the Philadelphia area where he was a frequent performer. He lived there the rest of his life, dying in 1993 at the age of 89.

In 1934, Chas C Eastman compiled 15 of Lu Brent’s effects in Exclusive Card Mysteries. They aren’t all originally Lu Brent’s effects. In fact, Lu Brent was more known as a technician — coming up with different ways of accomplishing established tricks. And in this book, he’s very fond of using short cards and stacked decks. It isn’t strictly necessary, however. For those with strong technical skills, most everything can be done with a normal deck.

Lu BrentIn my experience, magic has a tendency to get stuck in ruts — following fads. And the magicians who really stand out are the ones who are willing to go outside what people are doing now and revitalize older effects. Michael Vincent has done a great job of this, although combining it with flawless technique is what makes it transcendent.

The first trick in Exclusive Card Mysteries is a favorite of mine, “Thought Spelling.” The reason is that I love effects where the audience member doesn’t need to physically pick a card. In this trick, the magician shows a half dozen cards alternately to three different spectators and asks that each person mentally choose a card and remember it. Then the deck is given to each spectator to spell out their thought of card, turning over the card at the final “s,” which of course is the thought of card. It’s especially effective when done for fellow magicians, I find. And it requires no slight of hand, but the addition of a little goes a long way in heightening the effect.

There are other interesting effects. The “Reversed Card Location” is about the best use of a locator card that I’ve seen. And “The Suit and Value Coincidence” is very much like a popular Bill Simon effect from years later. It just goes to show that ideas cycle. But the point of reading old magic books is not to find new routines. In general, the effects in Exclusive Card Mysteries would seem old if presented as written. But the book is filled with different ways of looking at the art of magic.

Recently, I created a copy of Exclusive Card Mysteries in PDF form. I scanned it from an original 1934 edition of the book. And even though it is in the public domain, it is still available commercially. But you would have to pay for such updated versions. I’m sure that anyone interested in card magic will take away at least a couple of ideas from it. As for me, I actually perform “Thought Spelling” — and I really don’t like spelling tricks in general. So take a look. I don’t think you will be disappointed.


The PDF will be available in the next issue of Magic Roadshow, where this article will be reprinted. I’ll provide a direct link to it so you can get the file when it is available.

Update

It’s up! Click over to The Magic Roadshow #163. What a cool little zine it is! Go now. Check it out!

NYT’s 51% Fringe Against TTIP and TPP

Jim NaureckasThe New York Times‘ Jonathan Weisman reports that President Barack Obama’s chances of getting “fast track” authority to negotiate trade agreements are shrinking as “the political fringes expand on each end.” …

Toward the end of the article, Weisman writes that 150 out of 188 Democrats in Congress signed a letter opposing fast track. He notes that House Speaker John Boehner in the last Congress said he would need 50 Democratic votes to pass fast track, which would imply that there were about 72 anti-fast track Republicans. (Weisman suggests that that number may be bigger now.)

A hundred and fifty plus 72 is 222 congressmembers, or 51 percent of the House of Representatives. That’s a pretty big “fringe.”

—Jim Naureckas
Tell Us How You Really Feel About Fast Track Opponents, New York Times

Do Headlines Matter at Frankly Curious?

ClickbaitMatt Yglesias no doubt thought he was being very clever when he published, 13 Ways of Looking at a Clickbait. Of course, he makes some good points. One is that people have taken to claiming that any article they don’t like is “clickbait.” That certainly is not true. But I think that Yglesias is wrong to try to turn “clickbait” into an all purpose word meaning “effective headline writing.” The word is a pejorative and it should remain one.

To me, clickbait is a form of false advertising. And it usually consists of opinion. “The 30 Best Game of Thones Characters.” People only click on such articles to make sure that Tyrion Lannister in listed at number one. But the worst — and most effective regarding myself — are lists of things I supposedly do not know. “17 Hollywood Stars You Didn’t Know Were Gay.” There ought to be a law against such headlines. They abuse the disabled. My disability is that I know everything that is worth knowing. And while it is true that I won’t even know who 14 of those “stars” are, I will most certainly know the ones I recognize are gay.

But the whole thing did get me thinking about headlines here at Frankly Curious. I hate writing headlines. But Yglesias is right: it is a new world and websites are like magazines. The purpose of headlines are not to summarize the article but rather to entice the viewer to read the article. For a long time, I’ve been under the spell of Jakob Nielsen — the usability guru. His point has always been that people come to a website to get information. But that isn’t so much true of Frankly Curious. But to be honest, I’m not sure why people come to the website.

One thing that I’ve noticed is that the articles that get a lot of attention do so because the content is good, original, provocative. Ultimately, I think that is what most matters on any website. But it probably is true that this site doesn’t get as much traffic as it would if the headlines were better. There is a problem here though.

Frankly Curious does not publish articles about the ten best ways to fight belly fat or the eight greatest generals of the Civil War. Most articles here are broadly essays. They are not about stuff — they are about my reactions to stuff. And what is the best way to entreat a potential reader to follow along? I really don’t know.

Then again, I don’t have a clue what people want to read about. So I simply write — generally at a furious pace. And I figure that some people will be interested in some of what I have to say. And given that I don’t know what people are going to want to read about, I don’t see how I can be expected to write headlines that will encourage them to even try. It would probably take me as long to write a good headline as it does to write an article.

But there is a difference. If you go over to Vox or Crooks & Liars, you will see that all you are offered are headlines. This is a big trend on the internet to make websites more like magazines. But Frankly Curious not only has the actual articles on the front page, it rarely puts any of the articles “below the fold.” So people can just scroll down the page and see if anything looks worth reading. So maybe headlines don’t matter so very much — at least not here.

Dinosaurs and Family Values

BarneyScott Kaufman over at Raw Story has some interesting news, Irate Christian Parent: “I Am Getting Sick and Tired of Dinosaurs Being Forced on Our Children.” She is apparently part of an advocacy group called “Christians Against Dinosaurs” — known as CAD. This is more than the usual biblical literalism that is so common in this country. Most creationists are fine with dinosaurs. They just assume God wiped them out in the flood or whatever. But the CAD folks have a point. If you accept fossils, you really are opening a can of worms. This seems a much more defensible position than the saddled dinosaurs of the Creation Museum.

But the woman highlighted in Kaufman’s story sounds like a real loon. She claims that dinosaurs don’t have family values. To demonstrate this, she told the story of a kid at her children’s school who acted like a dinosaur and ended up biting three children on the face. Other than references to this claim, I can’t find any reporting on a child going on a rampage and biting three children on the face, so I figure it is folklore — or just a lie because this woman thinks the evil of dinosaurs is so great that lying is justified.

What I found most interesting was the kind of family values that this woman herself exhibits:

She also claimed to have disowned her sister, who “foolishly gave my two youngest some dinosaur toys for Christmas. After telling her to get out of my house, I burnt the dinosaurs. My children were delighted because they know that dinosaurs are evil. I am fortunate that my family has been very supportive, and has disowned my children’s former aunt.”

Let’s be clear here. Because of an ideological dispute, this woman banished her own sister from her family. I see this a lot in little pockets of Christianity. The Jehovah’s Witnesses are well known for not wanting their children to have any friends outside the faith and for a strong tendency to banish family members for what amounts to heresy. To me, this is about the most evil thing I can imagine. Jesus said, “Truly I say to you, to the extent that you did not do it to one of the least of these, you did not do it to me.” I’m no Bible expert, but I’m certain there is no part of the Bible that says, “To the extent that a person does not worship me in exactly the way you think is right, you should scorn them and never speak to them.”

It sounds so cliched to say that love should trump all, but I really do believe it. If it doesn’t, then you will find yourself more and more isolated as you go through life. In the end, even your children won’t talk to you because you taught them so well. They may well share your belief that stuffed dinosaurs deserve to be cleansed by fire. But they will also share your belief that something as trivial as a disagreement over dinosaurs justifies turning their back on friends and family.


I love you, you love me
We’re a happy family
With a great big hug and a kiss from me to you.
Won’t you say you love me too?

—Barney 25:45

Margaret E Knight

Margaret E KnightOn this day in 1838, the great inventor Margaret E Knight was born. She invented a whole bunch of things. She was granted 87 patents in her lifetime. But she is most known for her first patent: a machine to make those flat bottom paper bags that we all know from the grocery store.

There is an interesting story about that. She built a prototype of the device out of wood. But for some reason, she needed a working model made out of iron to get a patent. That doesn’t make any sense. It certainly isn’t the way that patents work today. I suspect it was because she was a woman. Never underestimate the power of sexism. Anyway, she hired the machinist Charles Annan to build the needed iron version of the device. And he promptly stole it and got the patent himself. She had to fight him in court and eventually won, getting the patent for herself in 1871. Somehow, I figure if it happened today it wouldn’t have ended so easily and justly.

She went on to invent a large number of other manufacturing devices — especially related to rotary engines. It’s surprising that she isn’t better known, given that she was the first professional woman inventor. But maybe that’s the reason she isn’t better known.

Happy birthday Margaret E Knight!


I’m not convinced that the image above is actually Knight. The woman in the photo looks to be around 30, which would put the photo at around 1870. She looks a lot more modern than that. But given that she was such a liberated woman, it may well be her. It may just be that I’m used to looking at images of women from the Civil War.

Rick Perry Didn’t Save Texas From Obamacare

Rick PerryRick Perry is running for president. Personally, if I had had a “whoops” moment, I would go hide out on my “farm” for the rest of my life and research ways to induce retroactive amnesia. But I don’t think that Perry is smart enough for that. He probably thinks that anything is possible because Richard Nixon went on to become president after saying, “You don’t have Nixon to kick around any more.” (As I’ve discussed in the past, that was actually just an awkward Nixon joke and actually quite charming.) But clueless Rick is out making the nation know that he can do for America what he did to Texas. And so this week, he was in New Hampshire making his case. The New Hampshire Journal reported, Perry: In ’16, Americans Will Want “Someone Who Has Been Tested.”

Martin Longman noted one very interesting part of the article:

Perry proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act, which he called “another example of one-size-fits-all coming out of Washington, DC.”

I love that line. It is Republican boilerplate. But it is also meaningless. There are two important aspects of this. First, how is Obamacare one-size-fits-all? One might say that with regard to a single payer system. But Obamacare simply makes the current insurance based system more affordable. People who couldn’t afford healthcare on the open market are now helped. And everyone is helped in a different way. Now personally, I’m not thrilled with Obamacare because in one way it is one-size-fits-all: it depends upon insurance companies. And they don’t add any value to the healthcare that the whole system is meant to provide. They are a relic of times long gone. But that’s not Perry’s problem. Perry’s problem is that Obamacare is a government program and, in his mind, that means it is one-size-fits-all.

The second aspect of this is simply that if a federal government program is by definition one-size-fits-all, so what? Social Security is one-size-fits-all and people love it. Medicare is far more one-size-fits-all than Obamacare, and people are very happy with it. Perry’s claim that Obamacare is a one-size-fits-all program is the usual Republican rhetoric. All he’s actually saying is that Obamacare is doody pants — he doesn’t like it but has no real reason why that’s the case.

Perry also said, “Texas has been criticized for having a large number of uninsured, but that’s what Texans wanted.” But that’s not really true. Most of those uninsured would very much like to have insurance. It is just that the conservative Texas government is against it. In fact, Texas passed a law making it hard to become a “navigator”: a person who helps people use the healthcare exchange. And 20% of the people in Texas are uninsured — the highest rate in the nation. Meanwhile, roughly 40% the Texas residents have a favorable opinion of Obamacare — which is roughly what it is nation wide.

Perry continued, “They did not want a large government program forcing everyone to purchase insurance.” But the truth is that regardless of what Texas wanted, they still have a large government program forcing them to purchase insurance. What the spiteful Texas legislators and smiling, bespectacled governor did was make it harder for Texans to get the benefits of the program — including stopping the working poor from getting healthcare at all. These are, in addition, programs that Texas has already paid for. So this isn’t about “freedom”; it is about good government. And Rick Perry and his pals have decided to take a noble stand for bad government.

Let me clarify what Rick Perry has accomplished. There is a large government program called Obamacare. The people of Texas pay for that program. In addition, the people of Texas are required to purchase health insurance or they are penalized by the government. To help the people of Texas comply with this new law, the federal government is giving money and support to the state. Rick Perry has made it hard for the people to get that support. He has also refused to allow many of the people who live in Texas to get free healthcare paid for by the government.

Basically, Obamacare can be cut in two: the bad parts and the good parts. Perry hasn’t been able to do anything at all to shield Texas from the bad parts of Obamacare. But he has done a great deal to limit the good parts of Obamacare. In other words, he has managed Obamacare in the worst possible way for the residents of Texas. And now he is going around the nation claiming that his terrible policies are something to be proud of. And Perry is not alone. Republicans the nation over have accomplished nothing in their fight against Obamacare except harming their own constituencies. And no one has really noticed it.

I would like to see this brought up in a debate. “You say you have fought against Obamacare, but the only thing you’ve done is stop your people from getting benefits they’ve paid for. All the taxes and requirements still apply to Texans. How does this make Texas a freer place?” I wonder what Perry would answer, “Whoops”?

American Traitor Roy Moore

Sarah PosnerIn June, 2011, when Roy Moore was flirting with a run for president, he paid a visit to Heritage Community Church in Severn, Maryland. Moore was at the time best known having been removed from his position as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, a result of his refusal to comply with a federal court order to remove a 2.6 ton monument of the Ten Commandments from the Alabama Supreme Court. For this, at Heritage Community Church, Moore was a hero, and the assembled crowd relished his meandering, homespun disquisition on the sovereignty of God’s law over the laws created by men.

Moore is in the news again — and again, it’s over his defiance of the authority of federal courts to decide matters of constitutional law. His claim that a federal district court’s ruling striking down Alabama’s constitutional amendment barring same-sex marriage is invalid, and his subsequent order to Alabama’s probate judges not to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, stem from the same ideology that drove his Ten Commandments spectacle: that politicians, judges, and the “tyranny of men” are trying, unconstitutionally, to subvert God’s law…

That showdown between God and government is at the heart of Moore’s claims that he is on the side of righteousness and the federal courts on the side of an anti-God, unconstitutional “tyranny.” Moore believes there is a separation of church and state — but he believes it’s one that distinguishes America from royal monarchies. In other words, the government is separated from the church in that the government is barred from running the church, and it can’t tell the church what to do. Public schools, in his view, are “controlled by government,” and impose secularism; he favors tax credits for homeschooling because that’s “the right of the parent.” …

Moore, who graduated from West Point and served in Vietnam, is fond of reiterating the he has sworn to uphold the Constitution against enemies, both foreign and domestic. He readily agreed that America has been overtaken by enemies within. “Our government is infiltrated with communists, we’ve got Muslims coming in and taking over where we should be having the say about our principles.” And more: “I’m not so sure some in government don’t want to destroy our country.” …

Moore… favor[s] the election, rather than the appointment of judges, to guard against the judicial “tyranny” they claim is undermining the Constitution, and therefore, God’s law. A woman in the audience, who said that Obama was not qualified to be president, based on another IOTC-promoted claim that he was not a “natural-born citizen,” asked, “how do we prevent people who don’t worship the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob from holding political office in America?”

To his credit, Moore admitted there’s no way to stop that, because “it’s up to the people” to elect leaders. In Alabama, where judges are elected, that has meant the voters gave Moore another chance to turn their state into an embarrassment.

—Sarah Posner
Close Encounters With Roy Moore

We Are Not Afraid of Scott Walker

Scott WalkerEd Kilgore brought my attention to a new conservative meme: liberals are afraid of Scott Walker. Now that Republicans everywhere are excited by union busting, education destroying, rich people’s tax cutting wunderkind Scott Walker, Democrats must be afraid of him. After all, he’s won several elections in a blue state. The American people must be just all excited to vote for him. California will go red in 2016! It will be Ronald Reagan 2.0! Happy days are here again! And why not?! It isn’t like the American worker really has anything more to lose at this point.

Let’s just start with the idea that Walker’s golden boy status is going to last for another year and half to get him nominated. I don’t buy it. Ultimately, the guy just isn’t that interesting. His big advantage is that he is clearly a favorite of the big money Republican donors. And that may be enough. But his recent makeover really has nothing to do with that. He was always really loved by these people. And I suppose the Republican voters will go along with him. But there is no reason to think that he poses any special threat to the Democratic Party. It really won’t matter if the Republicans nominate Walker or Christie or Bush. It’s all going to be the same thing.

The comparison with Chris Christie is particularly apt. Even at the height of his popularity in New Jersey, Christie still wouldn’t have won his own state in a presidential race. There are two aspects of this. First is the fact that people think differently about governors and presidents. Liberal leaning voters will go with a “moderate” Republican as governor when they wouldn’t consider the same candidate for president. Look at Mitt Romney. He was governor of Massachusetts. And in 2014, the Republican candidate won the governorship by two percentage points. Yet in 2012, Romney lost the presidential election by over 23 percentage points.

The other issue is that more people vote during presidential election years. Republicans get an extra advantage in governorships by running in off year elections. Scott Walker became governor in 2010 and then was re-elected in 2014 — two very good years for Republicans. If he gets the Republican nomination for president in 2016, he will lose the state of Wisconsin — and he will lose it badly.

But there is a more important issue. That is just the political science of it. Within limits, there are no good candidates and no bad candidates. There is no doubt that Scott Walker is a good enough candidate. If the economy tanks in the first nine months of 2016, the Republican candidate will win the presidency, as long as he isn’t some freak. So sure, if the Republicans nominate Louie Gohmert or Michele Bachmann or Sarah Palin, then they will lose. Scott Walker isn’t in that league. But few Republicans are. That doesn’t make Democrats fear him. And that’s because Democrats aren’t idiots. They don’t expect that the Republicans are going to nominate a true loon. So Scott Walker worries us as much as any “mainstream” Republican. And at this point, that isn’t much at all.

Speaking as a Democrat, I can tell you want scares me: the American electorate. These are people who don’t understand anything about economics. These are people who vote for whichever party they associate with good economic times. If the economy is doing well, they vote for the party that is in office. If the economy is doing poorly, they vote for the party that is out of office. This doesn’t make any sense at all. I don’t like the idea that the party in control of the nation is based on random chance. That’s what scares me. But Scott Walker? Give me a break!

The Nightly Show Not Keeping It 100

Larry WilmoreThe other night on The Nightly Show, all the guests were asked the same question: if there was some random human and the guest’s favorite dog drowning and they could only save one, which would it be? One person picked a dog. Another picked the human, but because she’s allergic to dogs. And the other two equivocated. I found that shocking. I’m very fond of dogs. But I don’t think for a minute that any of those people would actually save a dog and let a fellow human being drown. It jut wouldn’t happen.

There are laws against animal cruelty. But as far as I know, there are no laws against humanely killing your own dog. Murder of a human is pretty much the most extreme law that one can break. There are even laws against assisted suicide in cases of people dying from an extremely painful cancer. So it just isn’t the case that we as a society would save the dog — cute and smart as it may be.

I know that I’m kind of obsessed with the “Keep it 100” segment on The Nightly Show. But it really is a stupid segment. It is the least honest thing on the show. People consistently do not keep it 100. They pander to the audience and to the other guests. It is too often the case that Larry Wilmore wants to hear a particular answer and so it is only that answer that is judged as having kept it 100. But sometimes it is the case that the “safe” answer is also the truthful one.

But by far the biggest problem I have with the segment is the assumption that an answer quickly blurted out is more authentic than one where the guest has to think. The implication is that what the guest is thinking about is how best to finesse the answer. But the truth is that a good question should take time to think. On this episode of the the show, Anthony Anderson was given “weak tea” simply because he took too long to answer. This is anti-intellectual nonsense that is beneath the level that The Nightly Show is clearly aiming at.

In a previous show, one of the guests was asked if she would kill Antonin Scalia thus assuring same sex marriage, if she knew she could get away with it. The guest gave a perfectly fine answer to the question. But I thought about what my answer would be and I am sure that I would be given weak tea. The truth is that killing Scalia is a fantasy of mine. Really: I think about it far more than is healthy. Just the same, I know that I would never do it. It is very simple: even though I think Antonin Scalia is a terrible person who makes our society far worse than it would otherwise be, he is still a human being. I could never kill someone for an abstract reason.

So what does it mean to “keep it 100”? I’m afraid that on The Nightly Show it means to just say the first thing that comes to your mind. It is your gut reaction. It is not the truth writ large or small. And it trivializes what are often deep questions. If Larry Wilmore wants some kind of gimmick to get people to say outrageous things, he should find something else. Because outrageous comments are very rarely truthful. And equating the two only coarsens public discussions of important matters.