The Tell-Tale Genius

Edgar Allan PoeThere are a lot of great and interesting birthdays, but I’m going to have to make this quick because of filial obligations.

On this day in 1807, the great tragic character of the Civil War Robert E Lee was born. I think it is important to see him in the context of his time. In his time and place, we would probably have to call him a liberal. But was he a slave owner? Absolutely. Was he an apologist for slavery? Absolutely. And above all else, did his military brilliance prolong the institution of slavery and cause hundreds of thousands of more casualties in the war? Almost certainly. He was not the icon that he has come to represent, but who is? I don’t doubt, however, had he been born in Philadelphia, he would have been against slavery and be a help in ending the war sooner.

The great post-impressionist painter Paul Cezanne was born in 1839. When I was young, I really didn’t like him. Now, he is probably my favorite of the bunch. I’m not exactly sure why this is except that when I was younger, pure impressionism with its hazy realism appealed to me. Perhaps it is the mathematician in me, but I really like the way his work is constantly out of kilter—but in a very appealing way. Although I like his portraits more, you can see it most clearly in something like the following, Maison Maria on the way to the Chateau Noir:

Maison Maria - Cezanne

Film director Richard Lester is 82 today. He is quite good and I’m very fond of some of his films. In particular, he directed A Hard Day’s Night, A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum, and The Three Musketeers (and its “sequel”). But here’s what Wikipedia say about him, “Lester is notable for his work with The Beatles in the 1960s and his work on the Superman film series in the 1980s.” Okay. Lester also directed Help! So what?! But the Superman films? Really?! He made some great films and I suppose that the Superman films were okay. But what’s best about Lester is directorial wit. And there isn’t much of that on display in those later blockbusters.

Other birthdays: the great electrical engineer James Watt (1736); positivist Auguste Comte (1798); anarchist philosopher when it didn’t mean you were ignorant or just totally lacking in empathy, Lysander Spooner (1808); critic Alexander Woollcott (1887); actor Jean Stapleton (1923); actor Tippi Hedren (84); independent filmmaker Larry Clark (71); increasingly cadaverous Dolly Parton (68); singer-songwriter Robert Palmer (1949); actor Katey Sagal (60); comedian Paul Rodriguez (59); businessman Thomas Kinkade (1958); and journalist Martin Bashir (51).

The day however, belongs to the great writer Edgar Allan Poe who was born on this day in 1809. There is no writer whose stature increased so much in my mind during the course of my lifetime. I read quite a lot of Poe when I was younger, but it didn’t strike me as particularly great. It was just a lot more fun than the other stuff on offer at the school library. But now, I read Poe in context and I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that his work was revolutionary. And as a writer of fiction myself (or at least one who attempts), his use of first person narrative is amazing. I think “The Black Cat” is actually a better story because it shows the disintegration of the narrator’s mind. But “The Tell-Tale Heart” is shorter and so easier to get people to listen to. Here is Vincent Price performing it, as it is written, just as crazy at the beginning as the end:

Happy birthday Edgar Allan Poe!

Why Would Anyone Think Jesus Makes You Non-Violent?

IntoleranceI’m about to quote Phil Robertson, but this is not about Duck Dynasty. This is about religious intolerance in a general (but American) sense. I just heard that in Robertson’s GQ interview, he also said something about Shintos. Of course, that in itself is kind of funny because not that many people in the United States know what Shintos are. But I understand. Robertson is a college graduate and started his career as a teacher. He’s also clearly smart. But I had to find out what the old man said about those nasty Shintos!

Unfortunately, I couldn’t find the actually interview so I had to settle for a quote from a Dylan Matthews article where he’s being pretty silly, 9 questions you were too embarrassed to ask about Duck Dynasty. It delighted me to read it. Matthews introduces it by saying, “Here’s Robertson on why he thinks Shintoism—much like Communism, Nazism and Islamism—leads to violence.”

All you have to do is look at any society where there is no Jesus. I’ll give you four: Nazis, no Jesus. Look at their record. Uh, Shintos? They started this thing in Pearl Harbor. Any Jesus among them? None. Communists? None. Islamists? Zero. That’s eighty years of ideologies that have popped up where no Jesus was allowed among those four groups. Just look at the records as far as murder goes among those four groups.

Before we get to the Shintos, let’s discuss the Nazis. They were explicitly Christian. Now I know what Christians always say to this, “But they wouldn’t have behaved like that if they were real Christians. If they knew Jesus’ love, they wouldn’t have behaved that way!” This is the same thing they say when a Christian bombs an abortion clinic or does any number of other horrific things in the name of Jesus. But if that’s the case, then Christianity is totally unaccountable. I could say that only people who don’t read Frankly Curious lie. And then when someone who does read it is shown to lie, I could just say, “Yeah, but they weren’t a real reader. If they understood what Frankly Curious is all about, they wouldn’t lie.”

Now, I don’t know about you, but my understanding was always that the start of World War II was a fairly complicated thing. That is to say that bombing Pearl Harbor didn’t happen in a vacuum. But regardless, that was all much more about the emperor. I don’t think it had anything to do with Shinto beliefs. Regardless, we here in the 80% Christian United States decided to not so much fight the Japanese army as the Japanese civilian population, which we laid to waste. I don’t recall where Jesus said, “And if you are attacked, be sure to kill as many enemy civilians as you can because they’re just fucking Shintos who will murder you if they get half a chance.” Note, Wikipedia says, “Shrine Shinto is associated in the popular imagination with summer festivals, good luck charms, making wishes, holding groundbreaking ceremonies, and showing support for the nation of Japan.” I just don’t see the murder part of that, but moving on.

As for the Communists and Islamists, I just don’t see them as any more violent that the 80% Christian United States. But what the quote really says is, “Christianity is better than all the other religions, of which I am ignorant.” That’s usually a big problem when a group of people are overwhelmingly of the same faith. They start thinking that somehow they’ve got hold of the Truth. In this particular quote, we’re to believe that it is the lack of Jesus that makes people violent. But what about Jainism? Certainly that is a far more peaceful religion than Christianity. No one can question that. They don’t even kill animals to eat. What does the Christian say about the non-violence of Jainism despite its complete lack of Jesus?

Well, he was just providing an example! The point point always was that Christianity is it. This is why in America, Christianity and nationalism are so closely linked. When they chant, “We’re number one!” they mean both the United States and Christianity. This kind of intolerance and ignorance of other religions shows a shocking level of insecurity. Because as all good Americans know, there is nothing that need be taught to an American or a Christian. And sadly, there is usually nothing that can be taught, either.

Cary, Winnie, and Barbed Wire

Cary GrantOn this day in 1813, Joseph Glidden was born. Now he may or may not have invented barbed wire. But he got the patent on it in 1874 and so he became an incredibly wealthy man. Given that he probably wasn’t the actual inventor and how the idea was clearly on the minds of a number of people, it shows that our patent system has long been screwed up. But what I don’t think most people understand is how important barbed wire was to turning the western United States into a cattle ranching empire. The places where cattle were being bread did not have a lot of wood. So they really did need a way of enclose the cattle that didn’t cost a fortune in imported wood. Barbed wire really was a hugely important technological innovation, regardless of who invented it.

The writer of the great Winnie the Pooh books, A A Milne was born in 1882. I wrote a bit about him last year, Neuroses of Winnie the Pooh. Milne wrote much else besides the Pooh books. He was most successful as a playwright, but there is hardly a form or audience he didn’t write for.

Other birthdays: the great political theorist Montesquieu (1689); the lexicographer Peter Mark Roget (1779); Thomas “Come here, I want you” Watson (1854); comedian Oliver Hardy (1892); horror writer C M Eddy Jr (1896); actor Danny Kaye (1913); Bozo the Clown, Bob Bell (1922); writer and mystic Robert Anton Wilson (1932); singer-songwriter Bobby Goldsboro (73); actor Paul Freeman (71); actor Kevin Costner (59); and chess grandmaster Alexander Khalifman (46).

The day, however, belongs to one of my all time favorite actors Cary Grant who was born on this day in 1904. He is just always fun to watch. I prefer when he is in comedies, because he is very funny. But he’s also very good in dramas like North by Northwest. Of course, above all, he was in His Girl Friday—one of my very favorite films. The whole film is on YouTube in a couple of places, but here is the beginning where he and Rosalind Russell make a great comic duo:

Happy birthday Cary Grant!

The Rich Versus the Upper Class

Paul KrugmanPaul Krugman makes a great point in a blog post today, The Myth of the Deserving Rich. But then he commits an error (which he does all the time) that drives me crazy. But first, let’s talk about the article generally.

His point is that just as we try to justify the poverty of the poor, we try to justify the wealth of the rich. Well, we don’t. But pretty much the entirety of the mainstream press and pretty much any politician with high aspirations. Of course, Krugman doesn’t go into it, but there is a big reason for this: social unrest. I think it is the biggest issue that society will have to face over the next couple hundred years if we manage to keep civilization going that long. If we all admit that our society is hopelessly unjust, how will we deal with this? We want to create a society that encourages people to do good things with their lives. But it isn’t a stupid person’s fault that he is stupid.

Krugman, of course, is more interested in the injustice and social waste of not providing real opportunity to the children of the poor. I’m interested in that too. But I think the problem is much deeper than that and eventually we need to solve it if we are going to make progress as a society. Personally, I believe in guaranteed incomes. But that discussion can wait for another day. What’s more, I’m sure there are other solutions that have not occurred to me.

On the other side of things—apologizing for the wealth of the rich—is at least as absurd. A canard I used to hear a lot is, “If the rich didn’t deserve their money, they would have lost it by now.” No. There are several reasons this is wrong. One is that the children of the rich get educated in how to manage money. Another is that the rich don’t really manage their own money; they pay experts to manage their money. And don’t forget: inheritance in the primary way people get rich. This Forbes article is a good example of what Krugman talks about in his article: using the well off but not rich to make the rich look better. (A half-million in wealth including your home is the definition of rich? Right!)

What Krugman keeps doing that bugs me, however, is saying that only the top 1% is upper class and that the 19% below them are the upper-middle class. Look, if the bottom 20% is the lower class, the middle 20% is the middle class, then the top 20% is the upper class. I admit, someone barely in that class is not rich at all. (My sister would fit into that category, although by the Forbes article, she would be rich just based upon her house.) I’ll even admit that the 19% are not rich. But they are by definition in the upper class.

The reason this bothers me is that it tilts the field against the lower class. By this way of thinking, the bottom 20% somehow balance the upper 1%. But that isn’t what’s really going on. People living on the streets might balance the 1%, but not the bottom 20% generally. They really are the contrast to the management class (and those few people who still have decent unions). I’m in no way against the upper class—I have family and friends in this class. Sadly, however, not one of them will admit to being in the upper class. And seeing reality is a prerequisite for improving it.

The Tea Totaler

TeapotAll evidence to the contrary, I don’t drink much. But I am not a teetotaler. That’s an interesting word. Originally, it referred to the 19th century movement of people who followed teetotalism—an explicit abstinence from all alcohol. It started at the same time and was more or less the same thing as the Washingtonian movement. There is a tendency now to think that as a nation we drink a great deal. This is not true, and I think this misinformation comes from groups like Alcoholics Anonymous and MADD who constantly want to define down what it means to be drunk or a drunk.

The truth is that people used to drink a lot more than we do now. I see this all the time while researching my daily birthday posts, where I find a lot of people of the past dying from liver damage due to alcohol consumption. And in the 19th century, it was especially bad. And here I’m not just talking about the drinkers themselves. Alcohol use then as now was associated with violence—especially domestic violence.

Today, people are far more responsible about their drinking. This is not surprising. Drug taking is a social activity. The biggest harms that occur with drugs are when new drugs are introduced into a culture where it had no history and thus no set norms. Despite all the mythology of the “disease of addiction,” people generally learn their drug taking habits from their environment. Although I have seen only too well the damage that alcohol can do to people and families, I think modest drinking is unquestionably a good thing. And wine and beer go well with most foods.

I try to have a drink every night. It is usually wine or beer, but I am not against the occasional mixed drink. In fact, I made up a drink called The Archie Leach, which is interesting as you will see later in today’s birthday post. But sometimes I have a problem. I want to have a drink, but I am tired and still have work to do. And thus, I created The Tea Totaler:

Steep one bag of a hearty black tea in 1.25 cups of 90°C (194°F) water for 5 minutes. I use Irish Breakfast tea but use whatever you like. Remove the bag. Add 2 tsp of heavy cream. Mix. Add one shot of vodka. Mix. Enjoy!

I can’t say that it’s great, but it is pleasant enough. I can tell you this: tea and brandy do not mix! And it gives you that extra energy to get your work done. Or to write unfortunate things on Twitter. It’s really up to you.

Afterword

Do be careful with this. The combination of alcohol and caffeine tends to make one feel as though one has had less alcohol than one has. Trust me: this is one drink, regardless of how it makes you feel. You may be thinking faster, but you aren’t thinking better.

Follow the Money in New Jersey

Steve KornackiI know that I have sworn off MSNBC, but I got a tip that this morning there was real news coming on Up with Steve Kornacki. So I watched it. This is amazing. Really, you’ve got to see it. The description of this segment sums it up pretty well, “Top officials in Chris Christie’s administration appear to be linked to an effort to use Sandy relief funds to force the city of Hoboken to expedite a project that also happens to involve the law firm of the Port Authority chairman.” There were three blocks that The Rockefeller Group owned in Hoboken that the Christie administration really wanted to be rezoned in such a way as to make a development there very profitable. About most things, I’m pretty skeptical—even things I want to believe. But the more I hear about the widening Chris Christie scandal, the more it seems true.

This is just the first segment, but it lays out the whole narrative:

Update (18 January 2014 12:46 pm)

One thing that was very interesting in the discussion that followed on the show was how at least two people there were minimizing it. For example, Josh Barro noted, “People nationally will not obsess that long about a story about a traffic jam.” He was saying that as the outlook of the people in the Christie administration, but it’s clear that he more or less agrees with that view. What is fascinating is that these are exactly the kinds of things people said about Watergate, “Why are you guys obsessing over this little burglary?” That misses the main point. It’s a thread. And the more it is pulled on, the more the entire Christie administration seems to be unraveling. Like the story today: it is only big news in the context of the larger story that Christie’s administration seems to be every bit as big a bully as Christie himself. And bullies usually end up breaking the law at some point. They are people who don’t accept social norms so they aren’t real clear on how to act generally. People will not soon get tired of this story.

Pre- and Post-Modern Comedy

Mack SennettMy but I am getting a late start on the birthdays today. Sorry about that. I’ve been doing a number of other things. And it’s too bad, because we have a number of interesting birthdays today.

On this day in 1899, the alpha gangster Al Capone was born. There is something about him that always makes me want to like him. There was, of course, nothing likable about him at all as far as I can tell. But then he caught neurosyphilis, causing brain damage that caused him to regress. And then he died of a stroke at 48. But watching even the worst person fall from great power to childish insanity is sad. He should have been gunned down in his prime at the age of 30, right around the time of the Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre.

Betty White is 92 today. I’m really not a fan. She really has very limited appeal—or at least she did before she got so old. I have nothing against her. She seems to be decent person. She has long been an animal health advocate. To me, she’ll always been one of those celebrities who were on game shows when I was a kid. My problem with her is that people make a big deal out of her when she is and always has been a middling star. I believe in respecting our elders, but our society doesn’t seem to care about any of our non-celebrity elders. So I bristle at the unwarranted praise heaped on her.

The great comedian Andy Kaufman was born in 1949. Kaufman was probably the first entirely postmodern comedian. Much of Albert Brooks’ material was postmodern, but it was still at least half regular comedy—the kind that is still the standard. I thought it was sad during Kaufman’s tragically brief life that most people didn’t get most of his act. That was completely true of the wrestling that I immediately got because I had read my Roland Barthes. But what was most funny about his Elvis impersonation was not the obvious joke of his naive foreigner character who can’t do any impressions suddenly doing a great Elvis impersonation. What is most funny is how he asks for whatever clothes he’s thrown to the audience. In that link, he not only falls out of the Elvis character, he falls out of the foreigner character, in his effort to get his clothes. It plays with the whole idea of reality and fantasy, and it plays rough. His Might Mouse routine is the same kind of thing. He provides perfect lip syncing along with almost missed cues. He’s contrasting the perfection of the performance with the imperfection of the non-performance, which is, of course, part of the performance. I’ve always thought that by the time of his Carnegie Hall performance, he was pandering a bit. But still, when the cowgirl seems to die, he pushes act far longer than any other comedian of that time. I think it is one of the best comedy performances ever:

The singer Paul Young is 58. He has a great voice and I’ve always liked this song (I won’t speak for the video):

Other birthdays: the great actor James Earl Jones (83); the great boxer Muhammad Ali (72); yes, I know, the great actor Jim Carrey (52); writer Sebastian Junger (52); and the great theatrical actor Denis O’Hare (52).

The day, however, belongs to the great Mack Sennett who was born on this day in 1880. Really, he was the man who defined filmed comedy until Max Linder revolutionized it. Sennett’s work really didn’t depend upon characters as later comedies did. Instead there were “types” and often not even them. These are actually a lot harder to make work. As you will see in the following compilation, there is a great deal of creativity. In fact, there really isn’t much difference between this work and what Benny Hill was doing 40 years later. But a couple of these bits actually made me laugh. (Note: Sennett is in a number of them.)

Happy birthday Mack Sennett!

The Rich Should Plan Ahead

MonopolyThis is a slightly different take on income inequality than I normally propose. I say that the rich should want more equality because great inequality breads revolution. In this clip, Bill Maher makes a more immediate argument. If people are desperate enough, they will kidnap the rich. Of course, I suspect most rich people will look at that bit and say, “Well, I’ll just get one of those flaming cars.” Or, “I’ll hire a private army to surround me.” Sadly, one thing that history shows us is that the rich never learn. I’m not saying they are different than anyone else. Everyone thinks things will just continue to be the way they have been. And in fact, that’s a good way to predict the weather. You will be almost 50% accurate predicting that tomorrow will be just like today. But eventually, the clouds roll in. Eventually there is a hurricane. And the rich have far more to lose than the rest of us.

In America, the Dummy Controls the Ventriloquist

Ventriloquist DummyEarlier this week, I wrote about the movie Cradle Will Rock. It really is a good film and an indication of this is that I had totally forgotten that I had already written about the film. I was still thinking, I’ve got to figure out how to write about the film. And this morning, it hit me, “My Suitcase and a Clown.” But all it really meant was that I have more to say about the movie. For a general discussion of it, go and read what I wrote.

I write songs and in my lifetime, I’ve certainly written over a hundred and very likely double that. My style was always a bit unusual, but in the last decade it has gotten to the point where it is mostly bizarre—or at least that’s the case in the songs I most love. I can still write a blues song. Not that long ago, I wrote a song in iambic pentameter called, “Angela’s Drilling a Hole.” (Regardless what you think, it’s not about that.) And I can still grind out the kind of post-punk I cut my teeth on like a song all my friends hate, “Jimmy Burned His Hand.” (That one probably is what you think, as long as you assume he did it intentionally and that there are lots more like him.) But these more recent ones—the bizarre ones—are, according to those who have heard parts of them, unlistenable.

As far as I can tell, they are unpleasant (But not to me!) because they are highly syncopated and repetitive. They are, in fact, the kinds of songs I tried to write when I first started writing songs. But people told me that they weren’t songs. And they were right: they were more along the lines of chants—but really “in your face” chants. The first of these more recent “bizarre” songs I remember writing was, “You Make Me Want to Be a Meat Inspector.” (You can probably guess that’s a love song, but you probably misunderstand the meaning of “meat.” Don’t think sex, think 1 Corinthians 13:11.)

One of the problems with these songs is that I so love them that I never really finish them. They’re like those old Bob Dylan tunes that have dozens of verses. But because no one is paying me or even willing to listen, I never have to stop. And that brings me to “My Suitcase and a Clown.” Obviously, this is about a a labor dispute between a ventriloquist and his “dummy.” Okay, it isn’t obvious at all, but that’s what it’s about. The “clown” in the title is the ventriloquist, not the “dummy.” Just like the labor struggles of old, it starts violent, but it ends with respect and profit sharing.

As you know if you’ve read my other article on Cradle Will Rock, Bill Murray plays Tommy Crickshaw, an old vaudeville ventriloquist. He is one of the anti-communists, but it is pretty clear in the film that the main reason he testifies against the FTP that he is part of, is that he has fallen in love with Hazel Huffman (Joan Cusack). But his testimony has put him out of job and now all the other artists hate him. He’s in his dressing room talking to his puppet and it is implied that Crickshaw used to be a communist himself. And then we get the following scene (don’t worry about the length, it is cued to the right part):

And then we know. He sings (as his puppet) “The Internationale”[1] by heart. He was a communist. And he is lost. We only see him very briefly later where he and Huffman meet, perhaps implying a relationship, but they both seem broken by the experience.

What I think is interesting is that I’ve always flattered myself that I was unique. And I do think that labor relations from the perspective of a ventriloquist and a “dummy” is fairly creative. What’s more, my take on it is quite different. But I admire Tim Robbins for coming up with the idea and putting it into this film in this way. It really is brilliant. And when the puppet falls off the stand and onto the floor, it is shocking—perhaps the saddest moment in the film.

Clearly, puppet is an inanimate object. In the scene, Crickshaw is doing all the work. In our society, things are the reverse of that. We have a system where the puppet is what is most valued. After all, he’s the funny one; he’s the one who appears to be delivering the goods. But without Crickshaw, he is nothing. By this I absolutely do not mean that capital shouldn’t be privately owned or that it doesn’t deserve a cut of the profits. But for almost 40 years—the vast majority of my life—productivity gains have gone almost exclusively to those who own capital. The Crickshaws, who make everything work by, you know, working have gotten virtually nothing.

In the movie, Crickshaw’s puppet is a symbol of lost innocence. But in our world, the dummy is now in control of the ventriloquist. I do not wish it, but one day, the cradle will fall.


[1] In case you aren’t familiar:

Robert Gates’ Duty to Cash In

Robert GatesOne of the first things that Obama did that angered me was to keep Robert Gates on as Defense Secretary. Of all the cabinet positions to put a Republican in, that is the worst. The Republicans have been (wrongly) hammering Democrats for being soft on the military for decades. So what was Obama saying other than, “I can’t find a Democrat as good for this job as this almost random (just happens to be the current office holder) Republican.” Now, I’m not an idiot. I know what Obama was trying to do; he was trying to “reach across the isle”; he was trying to show that he was open-minded. As I’ve pointed out, he was (and in many ways still is) a very naive politician.

But the thing is, I didn’t like Robert Gates under Bush and I didn’t like him under Obama. And now, he is out with a tell-all book about his time under those two presidents. I am not going to read Duty, of course. These kinds of books are always the most tired and useless things. Life is too short. But I have been really interested to hear what Gates had to say about Harry Reid because it is really unfair.

The biggest thing is that Harry Reid said that the surge in Iraq was a bad idea because the war was already lost. Gates thought this was treasonous. Well, this kind of thinking is exactly what I expect from a man like Gates. Yes, no one should ever be allowed to express a negative opinion about a war. But someone should be allowed to make a bunch of money writing a book that takes potshots at a sitting president and vice-president. I’ve got it: IOKIYAR.

The other thing is that Gates is mad at Reid because Reid asked him to put a study of “irritable bowel syndrome” into a military appropriations request. But this is how politics works. If Gates thinks that the Secretary of Defense is not a politician, then he is an idiot. In fact, anyone who claims that the top tier generals in the military are not politicians are totally ignorant of what they do.

Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal takes Gates to task, summing up the book, “Now he wants you to know he was offended, irritated, enraged, scandalized, ‘too old for this $%*&,’ and just plain itching to quit nearly every day he spent at the top.” But as he notes again and again, Gates didn’t step down. It isn’t like he needed the money; he’s valued at $5 million. As Stephens also notes, “Serving as secretary of defense, after all, isn’t really a duty; it’s an honor and a privilege.”

The only duty I see in Robert Gates is his duty to cash in even more on his government work.

Michael Michael Michael Miguel

StatisticsMichael Meier of The Q Filmcast tweeted out, “What are the chances of attending a meeting with 3 guys named Michael and 1 guy named Miguel?… Seriously, WHAT are chances??” This is like the ultimate invitation to me. It combines the things I most love: movies, math, and showing off. So I tweeted back, “Sadly, I can do that calculation for you…” What I actually meant is that I am a superior human being who of course can do that calculation, but I still have memories of grammar school beatings over such matters.

This is actually a trivial statistics problem, but it isn’t all math so stick with me. What’s more, I am fairly drunk, so who knows what’s coming. (I always maintain the right to edit drunk articles after the fact, but they are always posted along with something like, “Edited to conform to non-drunk standards.” Anyway, here we go.

The Math

Start with the assumption that one of the people in the meeting is Michael Meier. There is a 100% chance that any meeting he attends will include someone named “Michael.” So we’re really just dealing with 2 guys named Michael and 1 guy named Miguel. Let’s start slow. What are the odds that Michael is going to have a meeting with just one other guy and he is also going to be named Michael? The odds are whatever the odds are that any random person is going to be named Michael. It turns out that Michael is a really popular name. It has gotten less so over the last 100 years, but it is still really popular. I’ll come back to this. But just understand, the odds of two people named Winnifred meeting up are a hell of a lot less than two Michaels meeting.

So let’s make that percentage—the fraction of people in the United States with the name Michael—the variable M. So if the odds of two Michaels meeting up is M, the odds of three Michaels meeting up would just be M×M. Now let’s make the percentage of people named Miguel be m. In that case, the probability would be M×M×m. Pretty simple, right?

I asked Michael if there were more than four people in the meeting and he said there were not. That was great news! The statistics for 4 Michaels out of a group of 5 people, while higher, requires more math than any of my readers would have put up with. And at this point, I suspect your eyes are glazed over anyway.

The Demographics

When I first made my claim to being able to do the calculation, my only concern was whether I could find statistics on names in the United States. Not only did I find statistics, I found an absolutely fabulous website that uses the last census data to tell you how many people have various names: How Many of Me. It is really cool and you can spend a lot of time on it. Did you know there are ten people in the nation named Bill Clinton? But there are 227 named William Clinton. There are four people named Paul Krugman. There are 387 people named Michael Meier. There are only two people named Frank Moraes and the other is my dad, so suck it!

So I plugged Michael into the database and it turns out there are 4,191,129 people with that name in the US. But Michael is one of those names. I am absolutely sure that at least one of those “Michaels” was really a “Mike.” So I added that: 301,520. But as we all know, any of them could be Mickey (Perhaps a mouse?) or Mitchell (Perhaps Joe Don Baker in disguise?) or something else. But let’s leave it at Michael and Mike. That’s 4,492,649. The current population of the United States is roughly 313.9 million. That means that 1.43% of all Americans are named Michael or Mike.

The great thing about statistics is that it is never that simple, regardless of what you are talking about. You could include the phases of the moon and it is still not that simple. For example, this was a meeting of all guys. There are not a lot of women named Michael. (Note: I named my female chicken Fred, but that’s why people often think I’m “difficult.”) What’s more, people are not evenly distributed. If there were a meeting at a Catholic church, it is likely that there would have been more Michaels and Miguels around. On the other hand, if you were at a Klan meeting, the odds of a Miguel being there are pretty small.

Speaking of Miguel, there are 193,608 of them in the United States. I would have thought there would have been more. There are more Jesuses in America than Miguels. This may explain all the differences of opinions between the different Christian sects. (This is the part of the article where you think, “Yep. He wasn’t lying about being drunk!) Anyway, that means that the chances of you just to run into some person and their name being Miguel is 0.062%. So actually, it’s the Miguel who really makes this an unusual event.

The Result

So let’s put it all together:

0.0143 × 0.0143 × 0.00062 = 0.000013%

That is about a 1 in 8 million chance. So it is not common. But exactly how many meetings does Michael have during a year? And how many Michaels are there who might have such a meeting? (A lot as I’ve already discussed. People like me really take the fun out of coincidences!) And notice, this is not four Michaels, it is four sort of Michaels. Actually, it’s three sort of Michaels, because we’ve already established that Michael is absolutely positively going to be in attendance at all the meetings he is in attendance at.

Let me just end by stressing that we are making grand assumptions here. Michael is located in Nashville, TN. Here in California, I personally know two people named Miguel. So I assume that the percentage of people with the name Miguel in Tennessee is much lower than it is here and thus much lower than it is nationally. But regardless, it isn’t a miracle or anything. It isn’t like he had a meeting with three people named Jesus who seemed to have an unlimited supply of booze.

Afterword

According to the database, there are less than 1,587 people with the first name of Dweezil. I don’t know what that “less than” means; it doesn’t show up when searching for Michael. And most concerning of all, there are (according to the database) exactly 1,587 people with the first name Moon. Is there perhaps a Zappa family bug in the database? No! It is just that when the database can’t seem to find anyone, it says “less than 1,587.” I’m still not clear about the number for Moon. I would think there would be people named that. There are 11,109 people named Sun and 4,761 people named Sunshine. There appear to be no people named Korrok, which raises an interesting question, “Why has the Q Filmcast not done probably the best film I’ve seen in the last year, John Dies at the End?”

The Cremation of Robert Service

Robert ServiceI am sorry to report that two icons of my youth have died today. The first is a man we all know as simply, “The Professor.” Of course, that’s just the character that he played on Gilligan’s Island. He was, of course, an actual human being named Russell Johnson. And you know what? He was actually a hunka hunka burning love. He was a good looking guy, which I define as, “I’d definitely have rather looked like him!” He could have been a movie star and as it turns out he had a really good career. I’m always seeing old films that he’s in, like This Island Earth. But of course, he will always be “The Professor.” Even to this day, people in my family often refer to me as Gilligan because I have roughly his coloring and have long been painfully skinny. (No more!) But “The Professor” is more my kind of guy. (By the way, his actual name was Roy Hinkley.) He fixes problems, he doesn’t make them. Russell JohnsonHe was a botanist and I am a physicist (although he sure was good at electronics). We both had BS and PhD degrees, but I have an MS and he, for some strange reason, had an MA. So he’s cool with me and I’m sad that he has died, but he was 89. Here is a great bit from a speech he gave in his later years at MIT, “The Professor has all sorts of degrees, including one from this very institution! And that’s why I can make a radio out of a coconut, and not fix a hole in a boat!” We will miss Russell Johnson but we will always have The Professor.

Dave MaddenThe other icon is a man who is less well know, but still an icon of my young, a man I know of simply as, “Reuben Kincaid.” Now if you are old enough to remember The Partridge FamilyBrady Bunch wars, you probably know him as that guy who was on The Partridge Family who you never really understood the purpose of. If you were a little older, or if you still think about the show like some losers I am, you know that he was their agent. Reuben Kincaid was played by Dave Madden. He didn’t have the kind of career that Johnson had. I believe he started as a stand-up comedian and have limited success with that. But eventually he made it to Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In which led to The Partridge Family and eventually Alice. He was 82.

On this day in 1908, the musical comedy legend Ethel Merman was born. When I was younger, I thought she was kind of a joke. That’s the problem with being so successful, you can become a cliche. But over time, I came to see that she’s absolutely great. Here she is with another Broadway legend, Mary Martin, doing a medley of many of their hits. It will make you feel better about life, I’m almost certain. (Extra musical geek points for every show you can name, except for Annie Get Your Gun and South Pacific—you are expected to know those!)

The great writer Susan Sontag was born in 1933. I mostly know her for her excellent essays. But she wrote and did so much more than that. That’s not to say that I completely agree with her. She was controversial—explicitly so. But if a public intellectual does not piss off a lot of people, she isn’t doing her job. And if Susan Sontag hadn’t driven Camille Paglia to fits of apoplexy, I don’t know what the point of life would be. One of my great desires in life is just to make Paglia angry by telling her something like, “You’ve spent the second half of your career in one big apologia for very clearly blaming rape victims for the crimes committed against them. Do you miss the days when you were still relevant?” Sontag, now dead over 9 years is still relevant. And just tell me, who ever wrote a better sentence than, “Mozart, Pascal, Boolean algebra, Shakespeare, parliamentary government, baroque churches, Newton, the emancipation of women, Kant, Balanchine ballets, et al don’t redeem what this particular civilization has wrought upon the world.” I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it raises the kinds of questions that we should always be asking ourselves so that we can become better than we are.

Other birthdays: composer Niccolo Piccinni (1728); screenwriter Ruth Rose (1896); one of the greatest film editors of all time, Margaret Booth (1898); inventor Frank Zamboni (1901); hamburger tycoon Carl Karcher (1917); singer-songwriter Jim Stafford (70); country music star Ronnie Milsap (68); and the great film director John Carpenter (66).

The day however, belongs to the great Robert Service who was born on this day in 1874. He is known for his poems about the Yukon. But the truth is that he was something of a fraud. He wasn’t a prospector. He worked at a bank before moving to Whitehorse. There he hung out and listened to stories. I’m not saying this invalidates him. I think he always wanted to be a performer and writer. And his work is good. He wrote the kind of poetry that people still enjoy reading to this day. The best example of this is “The Cremation of Sam McGee.” This came about because Service was talking to a prospector who told him about a partner who he had to cremate on the trail. So he turned that story into a really compelling and funny poem. Service had a good sense of humor that he showed on many occasions. This is my favorite. You could just read it, but here is Service himself reciting. Note the very old style of reading it:

Happy birthday Robert Service!