Getting rid of Trump is like stopping the bleeding of a gunshot wound. Sure, there are many other things that must be done. But first, we have to stop the bleeding. If Trump does nothing more that is bad in his remaining time, he will continue to poison our judicial system with Federalist Society approved judges. This is, by the way, why he can appoint them so fast. He doesn’t need to vet them. Like so many things in conservative politics, there are always groups supported by rich people who just happen to have a list of judges or a model bill for “reforming” environmental laws.
Why 2019 Could Be Good for Trump
The reason this year could be very good for Trump is that the economy may crash soon. And ironically, it could come racing back in 2020 — just in time to secure his re-election. Note the irony: the economy would be doing better at least in part because people thought the federal government would soon be back in competent hands. Yet such a thing would give Trump his best chance to continue his reign of terror. Not a very pleasant thought.
Of course, if the economy crashes, Trump will lash out. He will be very unhappy because his grasp of political science is as firm as his grasp of everything else — except maybe demagoguery. My concern is not him, however. What I would prefer not to see is a bunch of liberals celebrating a downturn in the economy.
Now maybe that isn’t likely because liberals at least pretend to care about all the damage this does to working people. But I don’t doubt I will see some “think pieces” about how the silver lining is that it is bad for Trump.
And that’s just not likely to be true. We are still too far out from the 2020 election.
Trump Could Lose Regardless — But Don’t Count on It
The counter to this (which others have made when I’ve discussed this general issue) is that Trump is so unpopular that he may lose even with a rip-roaring economy. And that’s true. As I noted in a comment, Lynn Vavreck’s book The Message Matters shows how this might work. The challenger needs to make the election about something other than the economy. In the case of Trump, it would be 1976 all over again: corruption, corruption, corruption.
But I still think this is a back-up plan. I’d rather see a stagnant economy in 2020. This would doom Trump and almost certainly lead to a quick recovery because it would mean no more trade wars, no more fighting with our allies, no more chaos.
The Suburbs Might Not Safe Us
More than that, I am very concerned about this article that has been floating around for a few weeks (under different titles) at Vox, What Do the Suburbs Want? It is always subtitled with something like, “How the Republicans lost the suburbs and how this may continue.”
Unfortunately, the case it makes is entirely dependent upon what people say they care about. And I just don’t trust these suburban Republicans. The reasons they give for voting for Democrats in 2018 are reasons they should have been voting for Democrats since at least 2008.
2018 Is Not 2020
What’s more, it was easy enough for people to cast anti-Trump ballots in 2018. But what about after 9 months of Trump campaigning and consultants grooming him. Won’t happen, you say? Trump has to be Trump? If Trump sees that he is going to be a “loser,” he may well become “kinder and gentler.” He used to be a populist, after all. Then, when it looked like the Republicans really wouldn’t support him he became a standard-issue Republican.
A flat unemployment rate would almost assure Trump being relegated to the dustbin of history. What’s more, a major recession right now that is due to Trump wouldn’t help the nation, and it would be terrible for workers.
It’s a valid fear. Suburban Republicans… well, quite a few nice people, I’m sure, but our concerns do not tend to overlap much.
I suspect many of them like Trump’s upper-bracket tax cuts, they just find him personally uncouth. “Centrist” America recently spent two weeks in wistful mourning for a failed President whose wife once suggested Katrina victims sheltering in the Astrodome were living high off the hog. It doesn’t take much to convince comfortable people to support any candidate that promises to keep them comfortable.
Side note, but my primary worry with Trump is that he’s not a good enough bullshit artist. This doubling-down on the wall business is concerning. I was horrified when he was doing evil and covering it up with overcompensating macho bluster (like Travis Bickle crossed with some rich kid from “Willy Wonka”) but I’m surprised and worried he let Ann Coulter tell him what to do; her celebrity was almost over. Another fading outrage expert getting headlines over me?
He’s been predictable so far, garden-variety heinous Republican with enough vileness to stoke tribal-identity flames a-burning. But what if he’s exhausted his arsenal? The guy has been acting like a public-oaf-who-gets-away-with it for 30+ years, after all; Morton Downey burnt out after a brief moment in the hellfire. You almost have to salute an old man’s commitment to a bit.
If the old outrage guard are catching up to him, I wouldn’t discount his ability to bounce back. And I hope it’s not as savvy as I fear it could be.
I am worried too. I’m not clear what will allow him to save face. And he could just keep the government closed and open up parts that his base cares about. I can see the Congressional Republicans getting behind this too. “Who needs these worthless government agencies?!” Of course, the moment this state affects them they will come running. I’m so tired of all of this. It’s good that there is now a court case but I doubt it will come to anything. All those Federalist Society judges know why they are on the bench.