There are two races I will talk about for Wisconsin. Wisconsin District 08 is a toss up. The other, well, isn’t; but it’s pretty to think so.
Wisconsin District 01 (WI-01)
In Wisconsin District 01, we find the current Speaker of House: the over-hyped “wonk” of Paul Ryan. He is running against a gentleman named Ryan Solen. He is a former Iraq war vet who served in the Army as a medic and is now a computer systems analyst for SC Johnson.
Solen has an incredibly difficult uphill battle if he is going to be the first person to unseat a Speaker since 1994. Generally, Speakers don’t lose their districts for the fairly obvious reason that they are gerrymandered for them. However that doesn’t mean a particularly large wave year wouldn’t sweep anyone — including a Speaker of the House — out of office.
Speaker Ryan has a large war chest and the seat is considered safely Republican. At the same time, Ryan only managed to get 55% in the last presidential year election. This cycle has Democrats and a lot of independents wanting to vote against Trump and they may vote just as much against Ryan to punish him for not being tougher on keeping Trump under control. Of all of the Congressional candidates, I think Speaker Ryan is the one most visibly connected with Trump and that is going to seriously hurt him.
The Numbers
People who are better at this than I am with the whole math thing have determined that if Trump gets less than 45% of the votes in the district, it is apparently time for the incumbent to be terrified.
8/8: So, if Trump’s <45% in Nov in a CD, that spells trouble for any GOP’er. Especially if they have failed to define their opponent
— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016
At the beginning of the month, Clinton was up 15 percentage point on Trump and she may very well still be that high or around ten points more than Trump since Wisconsin is considered a very safe Democratic state. But there aren’t any real polls for the individual districts at this point and unfortunately Ryan Solen isn’t a sparkly enough media figure to get a great deal of attention.
Solen is however doing most of the right things by defining his opponent by the person at the top of the ticket and demanding a debate. I have jokingly pointed out that there should be the slogan of #PickTheBetterRyan for this race, but like usual, no one listens to me.
It will likely stay safe for Paul Ryan but things could change.
Wisconsin District 08 (WI-08)
Wisconsin District 08 is getting a lot of the attention because it is a possible pick up for the Democrats. It is an open seat because the Republican incumbent is retiring at the end of this term. In 2008, it went for Obama, but switched to Romney in 2012. It also was a 2006 Democratic wave pick up that was lost in 2010. So Wisconsin District 08 could go either way.
It also has generated a lot of buzz because of the two candidates running. Tom Nelson is the Democrat and he is an Outagamie County executive who has been talked up for someone to possibly run for governor. In 2010 he ran against Tom Barrett for the Lt Governorship. He actually came really close for such a Republican wave year — losing by only by six points. So he knows how to campaign and do so effectively.
The Republican is Mike Gallagher. He won a surprise upset over an experienced politico in the primary. A former Marine, he was a foreign policy analyst for both the Senate’s Committee on Foreign Relations and Scott Walker’s failed presidential bid. He has been vigorously campaigning and has tried to distance himself from Trump. But he did admit he will be voting for the Republican standard-bearer.
A Tough District
Wisconsin District 08 is going to be a tough race. Since I don’t live in that area, I can’t speak to which one will be more effective at getting out the vote and winning. Tom Nelson is a guy who has incredibly deep ties to the district and he ran unopposed so he was able to spend all of his time working the general election voters. The Republican primary, on the other hand, was fairly brutal and left Gallagher with the moniker of DC Mike. Just the same, it also provided him with higher name recognition.
I do think since this is a blue wave year, it is probably going to go to Nelson.
I believe Ryan’s district voted Obama in 2012, so there’s that. But Wisconsin in super-racist, so there’s that.
The man is such a swine. He personally inspired the Nuns On A Bus, just to rail against everything he stands for.
Wisconsin is odd. It has a strong progressive tradition, and the only publicly-owned team in American sports. It also has a lot of badly-informed people who think their tax money is being wasted on those useless ghetto hordes who’ve ruined Milwaukee.
A strange state.
Yes, I love that Catholic politicians should be excommunicated for being pro-choice. But starving the poor is a-okay!
It’s unbelievable. But that’s The Church. An admixture of hideous human crimes and serious existential musings. It’s what The Church has always been.
Well, it wasn’t really the Church calling for this. In fact, it was often non-Catholic pundits and politicians. You know: because they know they need social conservatives to vote for them so that they can then screw the poor.
Great article! I’m with Ryan Solen’s campaign and I can confirm that, while it is an uphill battle, it is a winnable one. Ryan Solen is a moderate Democrat with views that interest both parties and the 1st CD appears ready for a change!
Learn more at Solen for Congress.
Thanks. Keep fighting the fight. We need badasses like you.
I remember those days as well. Good luck to you guys. :)
It would be so awesome. So I made a small donation. Good luck!