9:49 pm — One final thing. As far as I can tell, there does look like there was an overall polling tilt of roughly 3%. It is just that it was in the Democrats’ favor. I’m sure there will be more on that tomorrow. But I’m hoping to write mostly about film tomorrow.
8:47 pm — Well, it looks like things are going down exactly as I predicted, except that the Democrats didn’t even manage to get North Carolina. Thom Tillis has beat Kay Hagan decisively. I don’t think you can call this a wave election, but the Republicans did perhaps a bit better than the fundamentals would indicate. So much for the Democrats’ get-out-the-vote campaign and the Bannock Street Project. I have to say, I am so sick of moderate Democrats telling me that I’m all wrong and the party’s constant move to the right is absolutely the correct thing to do. I don’t see how Democrats could do any worse with actual liberals. The ultimate Democratic candidate is now Charlie Crist: a former Republican with absolutely no charisma. That’s the modern Democratic Party! I’ve even got a slogan, “Not as evil as the Republicans! And not as interesting either!” Go team.
8:06 pm — Warner is now up by about 10,000 votes with 1.53% left to count. But Thom Tillis is beating roughly 50,000 votes with only 6% left to vote. Jeanne Shaheen is holding onto a lead, but only barely — less than the polls indicate. It does look as though the polling will show to be off in the Democrats’ favor. It does raise an important question for liberals: if we are going to have to lose, maybe it would be nice to lose with an actual liberal party. On the plus side, Bruce Braley is ahead of Jodi Ernst in Iowa with almost 30% of the vote in. That would be fantastic if that one holds.
7:24 pm — Mark Udall lost in Colorado — big. That’s sad. Clearly, the polls were wrong; they made the Democrats look better than they should have. What’s kind of interesting is that everyone has been covering this race as though Republican control of the Senate were really up for debate. It looks like things will turn out as I had expected, although the Democrats may not do as well in the governorships. I might check this stuff out later tonight. Or I’ll check in tomorrow. The election was worse than I expected, but not catastrophic. The country will continue on its usual path to feudalism. And the la-and of the freeeee…. Oh, forget it!
7:15 pm — It looks like Warner will manage a win. Kay Hagan is down with a bit less than 75% of the vote. Jeanne Shaheen is being called the winner in New Hampshire. With 50% of the vote in, she is right where the polls indicted: one percentage point ahead. Thomas Frank is on Democracy Now!
6:52 pm — Now Jeanne Shaheen’s lead is cratering. She is up 1.74% with 43.52% of the vote in.
6:49 pm — Warner is down 48.50%-48.82% with 6.41% of the votes left to count. That’s somewhat over 6,000 votes with 120,000 votes to count. This is a squeaker.
6:47 pm — Bernie Sanders on Democracy Now!
6:37 pm — This is driving me crazy. I think I’m going to watch a movie and then come back after there is more data to look up. Gillespie continues to lessen his lead. Shaheen is up by 4 percentage points with 36% in. And I have a terrible headache, related more to my cold than to the results tonight, which do not look much worse than I was expecting.
6:16 pm — Ed Gillespie’s lead has been greatly reduced down to 2 percentage points with 10% of the vote yet to be counted. If I believed in God, I’d be praying.
6:16 pm — It looks like Rick Scott is going to beat Charlie Crist in a very close race. My gut reaction is, “How can this be?! People in Florida like Crist a lot more than Scott!” But that is the key, right? The people may like him but those who vote don’t. The Kansas governor’s race should be one of those where the networks call it the moment the polls close. But no. It will be close and Brownback may even win. It seems there is no level of incompetence that will hurt a Republican in a midterm election.
6:02 pm — Great live coverage on Democracy Now!
5:51 pm — This is weird. According to The Upshot, McConnell will come in with a win of 13 percentage points — 5 above the polling. Shaheen will come in with a win of 5 percentage points — 4 above the polling. This contradicts the idea that polls tend to be off in one direction. Meanwhile, Gillespie is still way up (almost 5 percentage points) with just under 75% of the vote counted. Again: Gillespie was supposed to lose by almost ten percentage points. That’s especially terrible because I can’t stand the sight of his face.
5:41 pm — I need a drink. The truth is that we don’t know much yet, but I am latching onto everything that is bad. I don’t know why New Hampshire is so slow in getting results in. Jeanne Shaheen is predicted to win by 1.0 percentage points. If she hangs on at all, we should avoid total catastrophe. But that’s operating from a baseline that is already pretty bad. I think I will go drink some white wine, which should show how desperate I am.
5:29 pm — Mitch McConnell tipped his hat gallantly to Alison Lundergan Grimes. The numbers do not look good right now. With 62% reporting, she is down 14.5 percentage points. This night could be very bad indeed.
5:25 pm — Sam Wang retreated on the 7 percentage point victory of Mitch McConnell. He also cautions that Obama didn’t win Virginia in 2012 until after midnight. So stand by.
5:18 pm — Ed Gillespie is currently way up in Virginia. Rural areas tend to come in early, so that doesn’t mean that the Senate will be cursed with that vile human life substance. But Warner was supposed to win by 9.8 percentage points. Of course, there weren’t a lot of polls of that state, but if Warner doesn’t come back in a big way it could bode poorly for Democrats elsewhere.
5:05 pm — Michelle Nunn tweeted out the following:
— Michelle Nunn (@MichelleNunnGA) November 5, 2014
It amazes me that this continues to go on. The most basic thing in a democracy is voting. There should be no expenses spared. Of course, we all know why these long lines continue: because the Republican Party knows its best chance is to limit voting. It is shameful.
4:50 pm — According to Sam Wang, the polls in Kentucky look like McConnell is going to win by around 7 percentage points, which is very close to what the polls said. The Daily Kos polling average was 8.0 percentage points. But the numbers aren’t all in. Still, it is slightly hopeful. Also, the word is that the racial makeup in Georgia is to the Democrats’ advantage. But Nunn could be doing even worse with white voters than predicted. Still too early to tell. Why didn’t I purchase alcohol for tonight!
4:32 pm — CNN excitedly announced that Shelley Moore Capito has won her Senate race in West Virginia. Oh, really?! I would never have guessed with her 23 percentage point lead in the polls. But it does make me wonder about the state. West Virginia is very poor. They get lots more money from the federal government than they pay to it. So of course they would be government hating conservatives. Way to help your oppressors West Virginians!
4:19 pm — There really is no news yet, but that isn’t stopping the news networks from pushing their narrative. And the narrative is that this is an anti-Obama election. It isn’t. Check out this graph from Jonathan Cohn that shows the fundamentals. This is not about Obama, except that he created a wave in 2008 that swept a lot of people into office in conservative states where they wouldn’t normally get elected.