The Bluing of Alaska

Nate SilverBill Maher has more followers on Twitter than anyone else I follow. Guess who has the second most? Nate Silver.

I know what you’re thinking, “The election is over; who cares about Nate Silver?” Everyone who ever cared as far as I know. Plus a few odd people like Dick Morris and Karl Rove. And the reason is simple: Silver continues to pump out really interesting and even useful information.

This evening, for example, he brought us this surprising headline, Alaska: Future Swing State? Let’s look at the data.

In 2000, Al Gore lost Alaska by 31 points. In 2004, John Kerry lost by 26 points. In 2008, Barack Obama lost by 22 points. And this year, he lost by 14 points. Correlation is not causation, but still.

There are other things. Alaska has one of the highest percentages of independent voters. And it has elected democrat Mark Begich to the Senate. And you know about Lisa Murkowski. So there’s that. And then there is (like elsewhere) a demographic change. Alaska’s population is growing and most of these people are coming from California, Oregon, and Washington. What’s more, although the state is fairly conservative economically and with regards to fossil fuel, they are not that religious.

Of course, Alaska only has 3 electoral votes. But still, it is nice to see the bluing of America.

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About Frank Moraes

Frank Moraes is a freelance writer and editor online and in print. He is educated as a scientist with a PhD in Atmospheric Physics. He has worked in climate science, remote sensing, throughout the computer industry, and as a college physics instructor. Find out more at About Frank Moraes.

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