{"id":3013,"date":"2013-10-29T16:16:42","date_gmt":"2013-10-29T16:16:42","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2014-10-28T01:26:40","modified_gmt":"2014-10-28T08:26:40","slug":"its-now-or-never-for-senate-gop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/franklycurious.com\/wp\/2013\/10\/29\/its-now-or-never-for-senate-gop\/","title":{"rendered":"It’s Now Or Never for Senate GOP"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"CharlieCharlie Cook made a great point in an article yesterday in the National Journal<\/i>, Why 2014 Is Do-or-Die for the GOP<\/a>. This isn’t anything like the conservative claptrap about how we are on the verge of a socialist hellscape where white folk have to hand out dollar bills to every black person they see because of Obama-imposed reparations. Now, as usual with Cook, this is just clearheaded political analysis.<\/p>\n

You see, since 2008, the Democratic Party has had a lot of seats to hold in the Senate. In 2010, there were 19 Democrats and only 15 Republicans up for re-election. In 2012, there were 22 Democrats and only 9 Republicans. And in 2014, there will be 20 Democrats and 15 Republicans up for re-election. (These numbers are probably slightly off, since they are based upon the election results from six years earlier, but they will be close.) So the fact that the Democrats have maintained Senate control all this time is something of a miracle.<\/p>\n

But in 2016, things will be reversed because of the huge gains made by the Republicans in 2010. Cook explains:<\/p>\n

The reason next year is so make-or-break for Senate Republicans is because in 2016, when all of the seats they won in 2010 come up—they netted a six-seat net gain that year—there will be 24 GOP seats up, compared with only 10 for Democrats, leading to some serious Republican overexposure. Seven of the 24 GOP senators up are hailing from states that Obama carried in 2012. After having had plentiful Democratic targets in 2012 and 2014, it will be Republicans in 2016 who will have the most incumbents in the crosshairs.<\/div>\n

This is why Cook says that 2014 is “do or die” for the Republicans. I would put it more musically and say it is “Now Or Never”:<\/p>\n