Fiscal CliffReuters is reporting, Tentative "Fiscal Cliff" Deal Emerges in Senate. The devil is in the details, but it is at least not as bad as I had thought. In fact, dare I say it: it looks pretty good. If the Republicans were willing to take this all the time, what was the problem? The problem, I fear, is that the Republicans are not willing to take this deal.

Here are the main items:

  • It makes permanent the tax cuts on incomes below $450,000. (Meh.)
  • The estate tax will be increased. (Good, but by how much?)
  • Corporate tax incentives are extended. (Fine.)
  • The AMT will be permanently fixed. (About time!)
  • The sequester will be delayed for an undetermined amount of time. (Those Republicans really hate deficits, don't they?!)
  • Extended unemployment benefits will be continued for another year. (Very good.)
  • Capital gains taxes will be raised from 15% to 23.8%. (Better than nothing. A lot better!)

So this deal look like it might be pretty damned good. And you know what that means...

The Republicans will kill it.


This article may not have a long shelf life, unless I'm right. I'm not sure. Obviously, the deal can pass the Senate. It would be high-larious if McConnell ended up filibustering it! But I think that is asking too much. I suspect the deal can pass the House, because Democrats will vote for it in large numbers. But will Boehner really allow a vote on this? Won't he risk losing his speakership if he allows that? We'll know soon enough!

Update (31 December 2012 11:53 am)

Finally, I found the president's speech that everyone is talking about: